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29-11-2015, 17:14   #1
M.T. Cranium
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Renewed rain and wind potential Mon 30th Nov -Wed 2nd Dec

Now that Clodagh has come and gone, with gusty winds starting to subside into the 40-70 km/hr range, it's time to look ahead to the next series of events which seem to form one long-duration storm cycle that promises heavy rainfall for parts of the western and central counties in particular, and gusty winds reaching alert levels for at least the west coast on Tuesday night if not more widely.

First of all, the rainfall potential is considerable and given the saturated ground conditions, this thread is being given a level two designation -- if this situation was for June on dry ground, perhaps it would be level one. The rain will come in two waves, first being 20-30 mm on Monday across a zone that includes Clare, Kerry, north Limerick, south Galway and parts of Tipperary, Roscommon, Offaly and Laois. This leading wave will be associated with low pressure that will never fully break away from a stronger system out in the Atlantic, so that it forms a "leading wave" type of event. Temperatures will be much milder on the south side of its track in Munster and south Leinster, reaching 12 or 13 C. To the north it will stay in single digits from Galway to just north of Dublin and only 4-6 C in Ulster. Wind potential with this first wave looks moderate and sub-alert but gusts could reach 90 or 100 km/hr in exposed places on the south coast Monday afternoon. The dynamics of the system will prevent strong winds from mixing to the ground further north where most places will remain in a light easterly to moderate southeasterly flow later.

Then on Tuesday (1st Dec) the stronger Atlantic system will begin to sweep into western counties with an increasing southerly wind and outbreaks of heavy rain with 30-50 mm potential over a 36-hour period. This will be on top of the earlier amounts for Clare and south Galway, flood risk will be quite high with this long-duration event. Winds of 80-120 km/hr will develop near the west coast by Tuesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will come up into the 11-13 C range across all parts of Ireland in this southerly flow and it will eventually get quite windy in almost all regions. However, this is considered a level one wind event for now, the level two storm risk is for rain and flooding.

The event will slowly peter out on Wed 2 Dec and in the final stages a trailing wave timed for Wednesday night into Thursday morning could bring a touch of sleet or snow to higher ground in the south once colder temperatures filter in behind the cold fronts. Flooding may however be ongoing in some areas for the mid-week period.

And it looks like we may need alerts for wind and rain the following weekend as well ... so an active period ahead.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 30-11-2015 at 02:21. Reason: minor tweaking at 0230h Monday, anything more extensive will be in new post(s)
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29-11-2015, 17:33   #2
 
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Snow warning for parts of the North as well.
Chief Forecaster's assessment
Another depression will move quickly eastwards across on Monday, crossing Ireland in the morning and northern England in the afternoon. With cold air immediately north of the depression's track the rain is expected to turn to wet snow across parts of Northern Ireland, southern Scotland, and the extreme north of England. There remains uncertainty regarding the extent of snow. As on Sunday there will be a very sharp divide between the cold air to the north and mild air to the south such that things will be finely balanced. Furthermore, amounts of snow reaching lower levels will be very dependent on precipitation intensity. Therefore this warning will remain under review.
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30-11-2015, 00:37   #3
 
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STATUS YELLOW

Snow-ice Warning for Donegal
Risk of up to 3 cm of snow in parts of Co. Donegal on Monday morning.

Issued:Sunday 29 November 2015 19:00
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30-11-2015, 02:31   #4
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Lowest temperature at 0200h in Ulster was 2 deg C at Lough Fea. Dew points are generally above freezing. Would indicate that snow is more likely above 300m but the snow line could come down a bit with heavier rates of precip due to evaporative cooling. I think most of Donegal will only see rain from this, with snow above the elevation of most inland roads. The Glenshane Pass in NI could see snow as the elevation there is about 300m.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 30-11-2015 at 02:38.
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30-11-2015, 02:52   #5
 
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Yes too mild at the minute but the warning doesn't kick in until 6am. Maybe some snow for low levels

Edit. Snowing now

Last edited by Weatherproof79; 30-11-2015 at 08:19.
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30-11-2015, 08:16   #6
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Worth noting that the GFS depicts very strong winds on Friday in Connacht and west Ulster, gusts to 140 km/hr -- other guidance is less extreme and the GFS perturbations have a wide range of gradients so this is quite low confidence at the moment.

Some readers may find that they are near the track of today's low pressure wave, the briefer your time with mild air and southwest breezes, the closer you are to this track. Looks like running from about Newport to Cavan to Dundalk between 0900h and 1200h.
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30-11-2015, 08:24   #7
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Very windy and extremely wet in Galway
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30-11-2015, 08:48   #8
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STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Wexford, Galway, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and Waterford

Southwest winds will reach speed of 45 to 65 km/h with gusts of 80 to 90 km/h today. Winds will be strongest in coastal areas.
Issued:
Monday 30 November 2015 01:00
Valid:
Monday 30 November 2015 08:00 to Monday 30 November 2015 14:00


STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Wexford, Galway, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

Southwest winds will reach speed of 45 to 65 kph with gusts of 80 to 90 kph on Monday. Winds will be strongest in coastal areas.
Issued:
Monday 30 November 2015 01:00
Valid:
Monday 30 November 2015 06:00 to Monday 30 November 2015 14:00


STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for Galway, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick

Rainfall amounts of 25 to 35 mm possible overnight and on Monday and up to 45 mm possible in co. Kerry.
Issued:
Monday 30 November 2015 01:00
Valid:
Monday 30 November 2015 01:00 to Monday 30 November 2015 23:59
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30-11-2015, 09:35   #9
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Sorry if this is off topic but does this storm have a name?
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30-11-2015, 09:50   #10
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Originally Posted by flazio View Post
Sorry if this is off topic but does this storm have a name?
No...'cause it's not a storm.
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30-11-2015, 10:13   #11
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10 min avg wind 31 kph WSW, gust 66 kph here near Tralee

8.6mm since midnight ( light rain blowing about in the wind atm)

13C
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30-11-2015, 11:57   #12
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I hope Met Eireann and the UK Met take notice about how the naming of storms is causing such a problem for posters on this forum, its insane how some posters are not able to take the naming of a storm.
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30-11-2015, 12:07   #13
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Anyone know roughly when this might break, I need to get a fence repaired and need to book someone.
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30-11-2015, 12:09   #14
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bucketing down in Naas now
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30-11-2015, 12:12   #15
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'Met Eireann' have the last word.
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