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Further Cold Spell In February? 0-180 Charts Only

  • 03-02-2012 11:43pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭


    There are some signs of below average temps to return to our shores and we shall watch and discuss Model Outputs here up to 180 hours only.


    I will also add that if I see silly off topic posts you will now be met with an Infraction,I have given several yellow cards already and Pistolpetes11 has been moving several posts over to Chat thread. May I ask that you simply spend a moment to think about where your post is most suitable
    Thank you.


    Please continue your quest......................:D


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,601 ✭✭✭200motels


    Looking at the GFS 18Z run there's a fair difference to the previous run, I know it's the pub run but a difference from next wed to fri, I think they'll chop and change through the weekend.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Here's the 50 members of the 12z ECM for 168 hrs (10th Feb) showing good support for a block to be sitting over or just near us. As echoed already in previous thread,this may or may not lead to blocking in a more favourable position for much colder feed of air around mid month with Greenland heights looking more favourable by then.
    We shall see.

    http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/getchart/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2012020312!!chart.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    No real consistency on what the high does next week, ECMWF and GFS have it sitting right over us at the moment but there's been numerous different solutions including a return to an easterly airflow as early as midweek. GEFS runs all over the place after Tuesday

    graphe_ens4_rhy6.gif

    GEFS mean at 144h hinting at heights over Scandi' which is roughly what the Canadian model is going for giving us a second shot at an easterly

    gens-21-1-144_cyw5.png

    Basically they haven't got a clue yet :P


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,096 ✭✭✭nilhg


    ECMWF operational run

    Recm1681.gif

    and ensemble mean

    Reem1681.gif

    seem quite consistent this morning, and the same applies even well out into FI, it looks the likeliest solution to me.

    GFS builds HP to our NE eventually in its run but the operational run has poor enough support there even in what might usually be regarded as a reliable time frame so I'm not too keen on that.

    MS_-853_ens.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,009 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Thanks for letting the rollercoaster stay lads !!!

    Looking good this morning on GFS !

    gfs-2012020406-1-162_ody9.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    We were here this time last week and we all know what happend:D The GFS has some great charts this morning, But the ECM is having none of it which is a slight worry, and UKMO is not so bad today. Going to be another fun few days model watching.


  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    We were here this time last week and we all know what happend:D The GFS has some great charts this morning, But the ECM is having none of it which is a slight worry, and UKMO is not so bad today. Going to be another fun few days model watching.

    Excellent point Musicman - those GFS charts should carry a major health warning :D:D

    To avoid heartbreak folks, best rule of thumb is not to trust anything outside T+48 hours. I have followed this rule myself and it shows Ireland having mild and wet weather for the next 2 days. Not great, but at least I ain't deceiving myself!! :D:D

    D


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    ECM 00z Is still showing an atlantic winning the battle of the upper temps and the next interesting data form them is due just after 6pm.

    Met Iceland shows the current prognostication very well when you yank the slider across.

    http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=temp


    120204_0000_144.png

    Be Interesting to see whether that blue stain widens on the right!!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    ECM 00z Is still showing an atlantic winning the battle of the upper temps and the next interesting data form them is due just after 6pm.

    Met Iceland shows the current prognostication very well when you yank the slider across.

    http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=temp



    Be Interesting to see whether that blue stain widens on the right!!

    It doesn't! This is at 240 hours!

    120204_0000_240.png

    But we are seeing the high building over Greenland, which I thought might happen.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    I don't think the GFS has been simply dire at around 180 hours. On Thursday the 26th of Jan this was the 180hr 850 hpa temp forecast.

    Anyone remember what yesterday actually turned out like. ??

    gfs-2012012612-1-180.png?6

    Now I know the GFS can flip flop ....a lot :D

    But overall the GFS is betting across a few recent runs on a Siberian Push against the Atlantic starting midweek. I reckon that much is correct. Whether it gets here and runs into moist air is another question..the last Siberian blasteen was a very dry event.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    The 00z and 06z GFS building on the possible very cold Easterly for next week. The 00z UKMO moving that direction aswell. The 00z GEM is a case of almost whilst the 00z ECM is more toward what we want to see but not quite there yet. Signs are good that the Jet Stream might take take a dive south allowing low pressure from the Atlantic to undercut the Scandinavian high. Also increasingly note that gradually the models are lessening the dispersion of cold air on the Continent and maintaining a feed from a Siberian source so we should have a decent pool of cold air to tap IF the Easterly comes off. My forecast is an Easterly followed by a Northerly some days later with frost and ice becoming widespread severe again and snow for some.


    12z's rolling now. Let's see if they build on this further.

    DWD 12z 72hrs- not bad at all.

    gme-0-72.png?12


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,009 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Cold in Europe a bit further west on this run.

    Lets see what this means when we get to the reload timeframe


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,946 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    GFS pretty much identical to the GEM at 72h.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,009 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Here come the colder uppers

    gfs-2012020412-1-144_xod8.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,009 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    -8 over us now !

    gfs-2012020412-1-156_ybo6.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,009 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    And boom ;)

    gfs-2012020412-1-174_ksa7.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,009 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    UKMO wants to join the party now too !

    UW144-21_cyc1.GIF

    GFS at same time frame

    gfs-2012020412-0-144_nwa9.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    GFS keeping consistent with its recent theme, reasonably mild and wet up until Wednesday before a cool easterly returns and eventually the high shifting to Greenland ushering in a north easterly

    GEM is even more progressive with the cold air holding on, a potential snowfest over Eastern Ireland on Wednesday but it seems to overdo the cold air compared to the rest

    UKMO also has the easterly winning out after Wednesday

    All eyes on the ECMWF at 6pm then


  • Registered Users Posts: 44 jimmynippy


    GFS 12Z AND UKMO 12Z are very similar at 1300 on Friday,this must be a very positive sign?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Well the the UKMO nailed the week just past, hopefully another good performance this time.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Much more confident now about this with the UKMO more or less on board. It looks like turning much colder again from Wednesday with the surface cold arriving first and reintroducing very cold frosty nights and low daytime maxima. Then the increasing possibility of very cold weather extending west over Ireland with more instability and snow particularly in the East. ECM the odd one out now.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Guys I must again warn you against getting too excited about such a setup if it were to materialise as it would be very similar to this week's one, which delivered absolutely nowt. High pressure near us with strong inversion, very dry airmass and cold air advection at low-mid levels, all pointing towards surpressed cloudiness and hence little chance of snow. All depends on whether the wind could back a bit more from a east-northeasterly direction to increase the fetch over the North Sea and hence get the boundary layer working a bit. There could also be a disturbance over the continent which would give things a boost but without that we would be peeing against the easterly.

    I'm still not convinced it will work out the way these models are showing, though obviously the nearer we get to the time the wronger I may get! I would have been more inclined to agree with the ECMWF, which is the odd man out at the moment. We'll see what happens, but I don't think snow is a given in a setup like that shown.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,009 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    ECM looks to have jumped west in the first 2 frames


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,946 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    ECM looks to be taking a trip to Greenland at 168h, High is farther south than the other model runs before this.

    10pxb94.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Looking at the bigger picture we see heights push across the pole promoting negative AO conditions and wanting to link up with Atlantic block over Greenland.

    ECH1-120_epq6.GIF

    ECH1-168_rwv3.GIF

    ECH1-216_cjc6.GIF


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    redsunset wrote: »
    Looking at the bigger picture we see heights push across the pole promoting negative AO conditions and wanting to link up with Atlantic block over Greenland.



    That's how I was thinking things would pan out. The low off New Foundland cuts off and heads north, allowing the high over Ireland to back off westwards, allowing the attack from the north.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,946 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Have a feeling the path to this next cold shot will be a lot smoother than what we just experienced.

    hry9w3.png


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    High pressure is going to build in Greenland inevitably. Easterly then Northerly is what i'm going for. The ECM has come more in line with the GFS\UKMO but it has the high pressure centered closer to us between 96 and 144hrs. It could be right about that but given the other models (GFS\NOGAPS\UKMO\GEM) I suspect it will shift more toward them on the 00z tomorrow. The Easterly I see over us is part of the process of building heights over Greenland. The high pressure is going West it's just a case of will it deliver cold and snow before the Northerly sets in and the PV moves over Scandinavia.

    ECM 144hrs


    Recm1441.gif

    UKMO 144hrs

    Rukm1441.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Yes Su that would be a very good scenario for us and could very well play out as shown. A Greenland block is what I crave, much better probability of producing the goods.

    Models are certainly showing a strongly negative AO for the mid month period.

    We shall see.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    redsunset wrote: »
    Yes Su that would be a very good scenario for us and could very well play out as shown. A Greenland block is what I crave, much better probability of producing the goods.

    Models are certainly showing a strongly negative AO for the mid month period.

    We shall see.

    Is it reasonable to expect a third episode of this in 3 years? If it comes off the ECM deserves a lot of praise, and Su deserves even more!


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