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03-02-2012, 23:43   #1
Redsunset
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Further Cold Spell In February? 0-180 Charts Only

There are some signs of below average temps to return to our shores and we shall watch and discuss Model Outputs here up to 180 hours only.


I will also add that if I see silly off topic posts you will now be met with an Infraction,I have given several yellow cards already and Pistolpetes11 has been moving several posts over to Chat thread. May I ask that you simply spend a moment to think about where your post is most suitable
Thank you.


Please continue your quest......................

Last edited by Redsunset; 04-02-2012 at 00:01.
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04-02-2012, 00:45   #2
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Looking at the GFS 18Z run there's a fair difference to the previous run, I know it's the pub run but a difference from next wed to fri, I think they'll chop and change through the weekend.
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04-02-2012, 00:46   #3
Redsunset
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Here's the 50 members of the 12z ECM for 168 hrs (10th Feb) showing good support for a block to be sitting over or just near us. As echoed already in previous thread,this may or may not lead to blocking in a more favourable position for much colder feed of air around mid month with Greenland heights looking more favourable by then.
We shall see.

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/getch...312!!chart.gif
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04-02-2012, 01:26   #4
 
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No real consistency on what the high does next week, ECMWF and GFS have it sitting right over us at the moment but there's been numerous different solutions including a return to an easterly airflow as early as midweek. GEFS runs all over the place after Tuesday



GEFS mean at 144h hinting at heights over Scandi' which is roughly what the Canadian model is going for giving us a second shot at an easterly



Basically they haven't got a clue yet
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04-02-2012, 09:22   #5
nilhg
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ECMWF operational run



and ensemble mean



seem quite consistent this morning, and the same applies even well out into FI, it looks the likeliest solution to me.

GFS builds HP to our NE eventually in its run but the operational run has poor enough support there even in what might usually be regarded as a reliable time frame so I'm not too keen on that.

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04-02-2012, 11:01   #6
Tom Cruises Left Nut
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Thanks for letting the rollercoaster stay lads !!!

Looking good this morning on GFS !

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04-02-2012, 12:41   #7
Musicman2000
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We were here this time last week and we all know what happend The GFS has some great charts this morning, But the ECM is having none of it which is a slight worry, and UKMO is not so bad today. Going to be another fun few days model watching.
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04-02-2012, 12:49   #8
derekon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Musicman2000 View Post
We were here this time last week and we all know what happend The GFS has some great charts this morning, But the ECM is having none of it which is a slight worry, and UKMO is not so bad today. Going to be another fun few days model watching.
Excellent point Musicman - those GFS charts should carry a major health warning

To avoid heartbreak folks, best rule of thumb is not to trust anything outside T+48 hours. I have followed this rule myself and it shows Ireland having mild and wet weather for the next 2 days. Not great, but at least I ain't deceiving myself!!

D
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04-02-2012, 13:03   #9
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ECM 00z Is still showing an atlantic winning the battle of the upper temps and the next interesting data form them is due just after 6pm.

Met Iceland shows the current prognostication very well when you yank the slider across.

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts...tic/#type=temp




Be Interesting to see whether that blue stain widens on the right!!
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04-02-2012, 14:16   #10
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sponge Bob View Post
ECM 00z Is still showing an atlantic winning the battle of the upper temps and the next interesting data form them is due just after 6pm.

Met Iceland shows the current prognostication very well when you yank the slider across.

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts...tic/#type=temp



Be Interesting to see whether that blue stain widens on the right!!
It doesn't! This is at 240 hours!



But we are seeing the high building over Greenland, which I thought might happen.
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04-02-2012, 14:29   #11
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I don't think the GFS has been simply dire at around 180 hours. On Thursday the 26th of Jan this was the 180hr 850 hpa temp forecast.

Anyone remember what yesterday actually turned out like. ??



Now I know the GFS can flip flop ....a lot

But overall the GFS is betting across a few recent runs on a Siberian Push against the Atlantic starting midweek. I reckon that much is correct. Whether it gets here and runs into moist air is another question..the last Siberian blasteen was a very dry event.
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04-02-2012, 15:37   #12
darkman2
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The 00z and 06z GFS building on the possible very cold Easterly for next week. The 00z UKMO moving that direction aswell. The 00z GEM is a case of almost whilst the 00z ECM is more toward what we want to see but not quite there yet. Signs are good that the Jet Stream might take take a dive south allowing low pressure from the Atlantic to undercut the Scandinavian high. Also increasingly note that gradually the models are lessening the dispersion of cold air on the Continent and maintaining a feed from a Siberian source so we should have a decent pool of cold air to tap IF the Easterly comes off. My forecast is an Easterly followed by a Northerly some days later with frost and ice becoming widespread severe again and snow for some.


12z's rolling now. Let's see if they build on this further.

DWD 12z 72hrs- not bad at all.

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04-02-2012, 16:01   #13
Tom Cruises Left Nut
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Cold in Europe a bit further west on this run.

Lets see what this means when we get to the reload timeframe
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04-02-2012, 16:09   #14
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GFS pretty much identical to the GEM at 72h.
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04-02-2012, 16:24   #15
Tom Cruises Left Nut
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Here come the colder uppers

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