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18-01-2012, 18:23   #1
darkman2
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Increasingly colder from tomorrow / Wintry showers and snow for some / Frost

Hi all, I have given my forecast in the other thread hijacked by manic depressives. Whilst they ponder how mild things are going to be why not post any interesting snowy reports from tomorrow onward here. Or hail, or sleet or frost or ice....all possible for this period. I will post an updated forecast later and we can all get involved to see what we can expect over the weekend. I suspect some, especially in the Northwest and North might be happy by Sunday and these conditions could yet last into the beginning of next week too.

Last edited by darkman2; 18-01-2012 at 18:25.
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18-01-2012, 18:53   #2
 
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Not expecting anything more than hail and sleet outside of the hills here but at least its better than constant grey and mildness of the past month

Should be travelling through the hills at some stage over the next couple of days so it'd be nice to see some winter scenery for the first time since mid December
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18-01-2012, 18:57   #3
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You might get lucky, hopefully.

Basically this is how I see things panning out. It's probable most won't see snow but not impossible either over the weekend. However I think some will in the Northwestern counties in particular and on ground above 150 - 200m more widely. Because there is such uncertainty even at this stage over details for the weekend some intuition has to be used to make any sort of forecast. But I think it's a reasonably safe bet that at some stage on Saturday or Saturday night wintry showers (mostly rain, hail or sleet) will turn to snow in Northern areas. Probably staying a wet mix further South. Nothing disruptive I don't think but it would be nice to see snow falling at least. Tomorrow night, Friday night, Saturday night (away from Atlantic coasts), and Sunday night will be typically cold Winter nights with a widespread frost and ice may form where precipitation has occured. Saturday looks fairly breezy aswell so it will feel colder with temperatures in and around mid single figure range. A bit lower in the Northwest.

Nothing severe is on the horizon but it will be nice to see more winter like weather for the time of year.

Last edited by darkman2; 18-01-2012 at 19:00.
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18-01-2012, 19:29   #4
 
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Even the Hirlam has come off whatever drugs it was on yesterday and the overall model consensus is now a brief cold period tomorrow night followed by increasing warming from Friday onwards. The only hope of any wintry showers willl be tomorrow night, and after that it's back to mild for the weekend. No chance of even sleet over the weekend methinks.
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18-01-2012, 19:35   #5
 
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At the risk of sounding like that manic depressive,icy bits breaking up on the window in the rain don't excite me.
I'm always puzzled how anyone can be excited about sleet...

It really is time to call for the men in white coats when one gets excited about sleety rain showers away from the hills,a sign of how little winter we've had this winter too.

I'm not going to bother with this thread,you'll be glad to hear DM,but hope those that do get up the mountains up north enjoy it!

I'll be lurking in the shadows hoping the much rumoured atlantic blocking transpires sometime in february and that we end up getting a week or two of real winter weather then from a proper source,the east or northeast
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18-01-2012, 19:43   #6
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Su the GFS and ECM are not too keen atm for different reasons. I agree there. But even the GFS does bring in the possibility of wintry showers tomorrow and again on Sunday. The GEM and UKMO however are much better for prospects over the weekend even though the setup is still marginal. And when it's marginal small differences between the models can make big differences on the ground. i.e the Northwest, for example, could literally be within a few miles of meeting the criteria for snow but still missing out or it could be just within the zone of cold enough air to allow snow there but not elsewhere.

You could call it either way but I will go with the slightly colder scenario for the weekend.


Last edited by darkman2; 18-01-2012 at 19:46.
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18-01-2012, 19:51   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackius View Post
At the risk of sounding like that manic depressive,icy bits breaking up on the window in the rain don't excite me.
I'm always puzzled how anyone can be excited about sleet...

It really is time to call for the men in white coats when one gets excited about sleety rain showers away from the hills,a sign of how little winter we've had this winter too.

I'm not going to bother with this thread,you'll be glad to hear DM,but hope those that do get up the mountains up north enjoy it!

I'll be lurking in the shadows hoping the much rumoured atlantic blocking transpires sometime in february and that we end up getting a week or two of real winter weather then from a proper source,the east or northeast
I'm not excited about it



Scandinavian high pressure with a link to Greenland and low pressure undercutting with -20c 850 temps storming our way then I might get excited.
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18-01-2012, 19:55   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Su Campu View Post
Even the Hirlam has come off whatever drugs it was on yesterday and the overall model consensus is now a brief cold period tomorrow night followed by increasing warming from Friday onwards. The only hope of any wintry showers willl be tomorrow night, and after that it's back to mild for the weekend. No chance of even sleet over the weekend methinks.
Possibly a little earlier than nightfall tomorrow Su. Northwest at risk of wintry showers from mid-afternoon, the risk gradually spreading to more northern areas after dark. As you say, from early Friday morning the brief, northern wintry spell will be all but over. Virtually no chance of anything wintry for the rest of the weekend, except on highest ground in the north, but even that is doubtful.
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18-01-2012, 20:00   #9
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For once I completely agree with Su. Everything looks extremely marginal at this point, from any chart. If it pulls off I owe you a pint, darkman.
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18-01-2012, 20:06   #10
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Maybe only high ground will see this. Even then it will be breif. Friday night & Saturday morning looking like they will be coldest.
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18-01-2012, 20:58   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Su Campu View Post
Even the Hirlam has come off whatever drugs it was on yesterday and the overall model consensus is now a brief cold period tomorrow night followed by increasing warming from Friday onwards. The only hope of any wintry showers willl be tomorrow night, and after that it's back to mild for the weekend. No chance of even sleet over the weekend methinks.
Thank God common sense prevails around here and glad you gave your opinion Su, however you gotta love DM2's ramping!

When it comes to snow there are only two posters on this board that I take seriously in terms of forecasting snow on populated regions - They are Su Campu and MT Cranium.

D
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18-01-2012, 21:21   #12
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Originally Posted by derekon View Post
Thank God common sense prevails around here and glad you gave your opinion Su, however you gotta love DM2's ramping!

When it comes to snow there are only two posters on this board that I take seriously in terms of forecasting snow on populated regions - They are Su Campu and MT Cranium.

D
In fairness to DM2 he called the last little blast of cold /snow for the North/ North West spot on when others were going against him.

Just because its not happening in our own backyards it does not mena that there wont be interest in the thread ,

As a weather enthusiast I am happy to read or see pics of the white stuff any where on our little piece of rock in the ocean.
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18-01-2012, 21:23   #13
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Ramping The forecast is very reasonable in my view. I am not talking anything up. It's based on my interpretation of the charts and like I said a little bit of intuition. I don't expect much in my location but others have a chance.



Enderman the queue of people who owe me pints on here for every marginal situation called correctly stretches out the door and around the block. Get in line


Latest high res UKMO forecast for tomorrow night - light - moderate wintry showers in the far North briefly. Snow on hills.



http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attac...1&d=1326922853

(Very marginal - in fact I would argue the dew points are not really conducive to snow at lower levels but anyway we'll see)
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Last edited by darkman2; 18-01-2012 at 21:59.
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18-01-2012, 23:09   #14
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The Fax Chart from the met office for 23rd which is Monday has a thickness level of 528 all over the uk and Ireland and were in Northly flow.

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18-01-2012, 23:10   #15
 
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I've figured out the problem with the Spanish Hirlam's partial thickness values on weatheronline. Manually calculating the thicknesses from the surface pressure and 850 heights it seems that there are two times too many colour contours displayed on the chart when compared to the corresponding reference legend below it, so where it's indicating 1270 m off the far north coast tomorow evening below, its actual thickness is in reality around 1285 m, rising to around 1295 along the south coast.

With surface pressures ranging from 1016 to 1026 and a moist boundary layer, the thicknesses above would not be enough for snow to low levels. The same model is giving 950 hPa temps and heights of around +4 to +9 °C at around 740 - 840 m amsl, so with such a thick warm layer snow would be out of the question.

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