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Pattern change could herald a return to very cold weather

  • 14-01-2011 6:53pm
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Hi all, been keeping an eye on the models the last few days and it's been pretty straight forward for the last week or so with more traditional weather pattern establishing itself with mild, wet and sometimes windy weather at times. Early next week things will start to settle down as an area of high pressure builds over the country bringing settled and really quite pleasant weather for a time. However there is an increasing risk that this frosty, dry, sunny weather will quite smartly be replaced by a North or Northeasterly airflow the following weekend as a tendancy to build pressure over Greenland again gathers momentum. This is still 144hrs plus so I would not put too much emphasis on it yet but something to keep an eye on. A return to very wintry weather is increasingly likely (but not certain) at some stage in the coming 7 - 10 days. More later.


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Comments

  • Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Hi all, been keeping an eye on the models the last few days and it's been pretty straight forward for the last week or so with more traditional weather pattern establishing itself with mild, wet and sometimes windy weather at times. Early next week things will start to settle down as an area of high pressure builds over the country bringing settled and really quite pleasant weather for a time. However there is an increasing risk that this frosty, dry, sunny weather will quite smartly be replaced by a North or Northeasterly airflow the following weekend as a tendancy to build pressure over Greenland again gathers momentum. This is still 144hrs plus so I would not put too much emphasis on it yet but something to keep an eye on. A return to very wintry weather is increasingly likely (but not certain) at some stage in the coming 7 - 10 days. More later.

    Thanks for the Update. MT posted an update earlier this evening, saying pretty much same.


  • Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    Personally I hope we do get some more wintry weather.
    :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 44 jimmynippy


    That was some change on the 12z ECM compared to the earlier output.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    LOL Had to happen...sits back and waits.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Both the ECM and GFS on board major turn around from yesterday


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Here we go ECM 12z +240hrs - :D

    ECM1-240.GIF?14-0





    Dan :cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,010 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    Best ECM run of the year...I might even say the Decade ;):D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    Here we go ECM 12z +240hrs - :D

    ECM1-240.GIF?14-0





    Dan :cool:

    Some of the experts over on netweather saying tonights ECM is a non starter:(


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Some of the experts over on netweather saying tonights ECM is a non starter:(

    My guess would be that today's runs are the start of a new trend, doubt it will come off exactly like that ^^ but who knows?? If it's still there on the 00z I would be watching it a lot more closely... :)

    If we see a typical pattern for the MJO in phase 7 then the ECM could be onto something, if la Nina gets it's way then there's no chance of it happening.





    Dan :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The two main models now offer two different ways to get back into winter, GFS from the north, ECM from the east. I think we can assume that there is a strong signal present now for trough development over the eastern Atlantic and western Europe. Details may be a compromise of the two models, but Sunday is likely to be the last mild day for a while. Next week looks like a transitional phase with high pressure keeping things colder but not severely cold, then that gets out of the way for something of more arctic origins.

    Well, mods, you've had a nice rest, anyway. :D


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Some of the experts over on netweather saying tonights ECM is a non starter:(

    Some of them would have doubted the cold spell that started last November. Although to be fair the upstream pattern this time is far less favourable for that ecm chart to verify. So that's why some are doubtful. Let's just hope that chart, or rather a chart similar to it, continues to reappear over the coming days.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    My guess would be that today's runs are the start of a new trend, doubt it will come off exactly like that ^^ but who knows?? If it's still there on the 00z I would be watching it a lot more closely... :)

    If we see a typical pattern for the MJO in phase 7 then the ECM could be onto something, if la Nina gets it's way then there's no chance of it happening.


    Dan :)

    What does MJO in phase 7 refer to? Thanks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Hi all, been keeping an eye on the models the last few days and it's been pretty straight forward for the last week or so with more traditional weather pattern establishing itself with mild, wet and sometimes windy weather at times. Early next week things will start to settle down as an area of high pressure builds over the country bringing settled and really quite pleasant weather for a time. However there is an increasing risk that this frosty, dry, sunny weather will quite smartly be replaced by a North or Northeasterly airflow the following weekend as a tendancy to build pressure over Greenland again gathers momentum. This is still 144hrs plus so I would not put too much emphasis on it yet but something to keep an eye on. A return to very wintry weather is increasingly likely (but not certain) at some stage in the coming 7 - 10 days. More later.

    Hey Darkman2,

    First up, I love your posts and will always click on a thread that you start or to which you make a contribution. However, there can be a slight tendancy to ramp, particularly at the prospect of snow. Reading your post above, I could not but help thining you would have preferred to have the following as the thread's title:

    Warning-sign1.png"Widespread Snow & Blizzards next week with -10oC temps widespread"

    I am taking the p**s :D. Please don't let last week's failed snow prediction (for the east coast and midlands) dampen your spirit of enthusiasm. I want the real Darkman2 back! :)

    On a serious note though, between the recent posts over on TWO and MT's post at 6pm tonight, it would appear the model runs are now moving towards another cold spell breaking out in the last week of January. If these indications are still in place and building by this Monday / Tuesday, we could be indeed heading back to a period of snow indeed. Interesting few days ahead :cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    What does MJO in phase 7 refer to? Thanks.

    MJO = Madden/Julian Oscillation

    Forecast to go into phase 7 -

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_small.gif





    Dan :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    What does MJO in phase 7 refer to? Thanks.

    The MJO composites are here if you want them http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 38 Flan_Da_Man125


    anyone hazard a guess on the percentage chances of severe cold weather returning??:confused:


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    85% ;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    Danno wrote: »
    85% ;)

    86% :P


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    a real sudden shift towards a potential easterly and it has really come out of the blue for many, i was cautiously watching it over the last 3 days but the models didn't want to play ball but it appears very possible that we could potentially in an easterly in 4-5 days.

    However the most likely option is the easterly only really affects England with high pressure domination here, however the trend is your friend and it is lookint increasing possible.

    That this could be the weather synoptic chart for next Thursday!
    (ENS member of the GFS 6z!)

    gens-14-1-126.png?6


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,601 ✭✭✭200motels


    a real sudden shift towards a potential easterly and it has really come out of the blue for many, i was cautiously watching it over the last 3 days but the models didn't want to play ball but it appears very possible that we could potentially in an easterly in 4-5 days.

    However the most likely option is the easterly only really affects England with high pressure domination here, however the trend is your friend and it is lookint increasing possible.

    That this could be the weather synoptic chart for next Thursday!
    (ENS member of the GFS 6z!)

    gens-14-1-126.png?6
    It looks good from this far out but as we all know things will change hopefully for the better.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    A handful of ensemble members bring in very cold air in around 10 days time, these are, of course, still in the minority though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    MiNdGaM3 wrote: »
    A handful of ensemble members bring in very cold air in around 10 days time, these are, of course, still in the minority though.

    You are looking to far ahead, the real exciting period is the 108-144hr period where big changes are occurring that could potentially lead to a sudden return to cold.


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    You are looking to far ahead, the real exciting period is the 108-144hr period where big changes are occurring that could potentially lead to a sudden return to cold.

    That's true, but really it's only P14 that has a significant snow risk. The rest that are cold are generally dry, but I'm sure that would still be welcomed by many!
    I might feel a bit more optimistic if the other models begin to trend cold, but even the ECM op was at the lower end of its ensembles before t144.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Could really go both ways at this stage, I just really hope we don't end up under the massive mid atlantic high, similar to the end of january 2005...
    What we really need is a nice Scandi-Siberian link HP, positioned in a way to get a nice unstable cold feed...the Greenland high is dead for the time being in my opinion, those positive anomalies are definitely starting to erode with much colder temperatures around Greenland...


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    patneve2 wrote: »
    Could really go both ways at this stage, I just really hope we don't end up under the massive mid atlantic high, similar to the end of january 2005...
    What we really need is a nice Scandi-Siberian link HP, positioned in a way to get a nice unstable cold feed...the Greenland high is dead for the time being in my opinion, those positive anomalies are definitely starting to erode with much colder temperatures around Greenland...

    yeah it does seem as if there is little chance the high will be able to move far enough to the northwest in order to open the door to the greenland express. i recall you mentioned a while back this was your concern going into January.
    we may get a scandi high but it's a big ask for the siberian high to come far enough west to link up with it. the siberian high rarely comes far enough west to influence our weather in a meaningful way


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    yeah it does seem as if there is little chance the high will be able to move far enough to the northwest in order to open the door to the greenland express. i recall you mentioned a while back this was your concern going into January.
    we may get a scandi high but it's a big ask for the siberian high to come far enough west to link up with it. the siberian high rarely comes far enough west to influence our weather in a meaningful way

    True, Siberian highs influencing our shores have always been very rare, and they even seem to be getting rarer...might as well build a time machine and travel back to the eighties...:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 416 ✭✭scary


    Hi all, I mostly lurk on the weather forums and enjoy reading all the predictions, I'm getting married in Donegal on the 28th January so based on all these charts can someone tell me what kind of weather we can expect then? Is it just going to be bitterly cold or could we have snow? any thoughts appreciated.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    ECWMF 00z Ensemble mean chart at 240hrs:

    143484.jpg

    There has been reasonable consistancy in the ECMWF En means over the last couple of days that fairly strong ridging will take place to the west or north-west of Ireland in the last 3rd of the month while troughing deepens a little over central Europe. This morning's deterministic run not all that far removed from ensemble mean chart above. 850's temp forecast suggests average to cool tempeatures (between 0c and -4c) while rainfall amounts look to continue to run below normal. Will be interesting to see how later runs are handling this situation but so far, so cool.




    Image source: European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,582 ✭✭✭WalterMitty


    scary wrote: »
    Hi all, I mostly lurk on the weather forums and enjoy reading all the predictions, I'm getting married in Donegal on the 28th January so based on all these charts can someone tell me what kind of weather we can expect then? Is it just going to be bitterly cold or could we have snow? any thoughts appreciated.
    Ask the Donegal postman! Ah but seriously , too far away to know, keep checking here and have plans made in case of worst case scenario.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    patneve2 wrote: »
    Could really go both ways at this stage, I just really hope we don't end up under the massive mid atlantic high, similar to the end of january 2005...
    What we really need is a nice Scandi-Siberian link HP, positioned in a way to get a nice unstable cold feed...the Greenland high is dead for the time being in my opinion, those positive anomalies are definitely starting to erode with much colder temperatures around Greenland...

    Latest ECM actually toys with a retrogression of the high to Greenland, similar to the December cold snap...dunno what the hell is going to happen in a weeks time!


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