Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
14-01-2011, 18:53   #1
darkman2
Banned
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 8,480
Pattern change could herald a return to very cold weather

Hi all, been keeping an eye on the models the last few days and it's been pretty straight forward for the last week or so with more traditional weather pattern establishing itself with mild, wet and sometimes windy weather at times. Early next week things will start to settle down as an area of high pressure builds over the country bringing settled and really quite pleasant weather for a time. However there is an increasing risk that this frosty, dry, sunny weather will quite smartly be replaced by a North or Northeasterly airflow the following weekend as a tendancy to build pressure over Greenland again gathers momentum. This is still 144hrs plus so I would not put too much emphasis on it yet but something to keep an eye on. A return to very wintry weather is increasingly likely (but not certain) at some stage in the coming 7 - 10 days. More later.
darkman2 is offline  
Advertisement
14-01-2011, 18:55   #2
Jake1
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 6,040
Quote:
Originally Posted by darkman2 View Post
Hi all, been keeping an eye on the models the last few days and it's been pretty straight forward for the last week or so with more traditional weather pattern establishing itself with mild, wet and sometimes windy weather at times. Early next week things will start to settle down as an area of high pressure builds over the country bringing settled and really quite pleasant weather for a time. However there is an increasing risk that this frosty, dry, sunny weather will quite smartly be replaced by a North or Northeasterly airflow the following weekend as a tendancy to build pressure over Greenland again gathers momentum. This is still 144hrs plus so I would not put too much emphasis on it yet but something to keep an eye on. A return to very wintry weather is increasingly likely (but not certain) at some stage in the coming 7 - 10 days. More later.
Thanks for the Update. MT posted an update earlier this evening, saying pretty much same.
Jake1 is offline  
Thanks from:
14-01-2011, 18:58   #3
Jake1
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 6,040
Personally I hope we do get some more wintry weather.
Jake1 is offline  
14-01-2011, 19:00   #4
jimmynippy
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 44
That was some change on the 12z ECM compared to the earlier output.
jimmynippy is offline  
14-01-2011, 19:00   #5
 
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 87,892
LOL Had to happen...sits back and waits.
mike65 is offline  
Advertisement
14-01-2011, 19:05   #6
Musicman2000
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,448
Both the ECM and GFS on board major turn around from yesterday
Musicman2000 is offline  
14-01-2011, 19:07   #7
BLIZZARD7
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,394
Here we go ECM 12z +240hrs -







Dan
BLIZZARD7 is offline  
14-01-2011, 19:12   #8
John.Icy
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,428
Best ECM run of the year...I might even say the Decade
John.Icy is offline  
(2) thanks from:
14-01-2011, 19:15   #9
Musicman2000
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,448
Quote:
Originally Posted by BLIZZARD7 View Post
Here we go ECM 12z +240hrs -







Dan
Some of the experts over on netweather saying tonights ECM is a non starter
Musicman2000 is offline  
Advertisement
14-01-2011, 19:24   #10
BLIZZARD7
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,394
Quote:
Originally Posted by Musicman2000 View Post
Some of the experts over on netweather saying tonights ECM is a non starter
My guess would be that today's runs are the start of a new trend, doubt it will come off exactly like that ^^ but who knows?? If it's still there on the 00z I would be watching it a lot more closely...

If we see a typical pattern for the MJO in phase 7 then the ECM could be onto something, if la Nina gets it's way then there's no chance of it happening.





Dan
BLIZZARD7 is offline  
14-01-2011, 19:31   #11
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,096
The two main models now offer two different ways to get back into winter, GFS from the north, ECM from the east. I think we can assume that there is a strong signal present now for trough development over the eastern Atlantic and western Europe. Details may be a compromise of the two models, but Sunday is likely to be the last mild day for a while. Next week looks like a transitional phase with high pressure keeping things colder but not severely cold, then that gets out of the way for something of more arctic origins.

Well, mods, you've had a nice rest, anyway.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
14-01-2011, 19:33   #12
nacho libre
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,209
Quote:
Originally Posted by Musicman2000 View Post
Some of the experts over on netweather saying tonights ECM is a non starter
Some of them would have doubted the cold spell that started last November. Although to be fair the upstream pattern this time is far less favourable for that ecm chart to verify. So that's why some are doubtful. Let's just hope that chart, or rather a chart similar to it, continues to reappear over the coming days.
nacho libre is offline  
Thanks from:
14-01-2011, 19:40   #13
nacho libre
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,209
Quote:
Originally Posted by BLIZZARD7 View Post
My guess would be that today's runs are the start of a new trend, doubt it will come off exactly like that ^^ but who knows?? If it's still there on the 00z I would be watching it a lot more closely...

If we see a typical pattern for the MJO in phase 7 then the ECM could be onto something, if la Nina gets it's way then there's no chance of it happening.


Dan
What does MJO in phase 7 refer to? Thanks.
nacho libre is offline  
14-01-2011, 19:42   #14
derekon
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 820
Quote:
Originally Posted by darkman2 View Post
Hi all, been keeping an eye on the models the last few days and it's been pretty straight forward for the last week or so with more traditional weather pattern establishing itself with mild, wet and sometimes windy weather at times. Early next week things will start to settle down as an area of high pressure builds over the country bringing settled and really quite pleasant weather for a time. However there is an increasing risk that this frosty, dry, sunny weather will quite smartly be replaced by a North or Northeasterly airflow the following weekend as a tendancy to build pressure over Greenland again gathers momentum. This is still 144hrs plus so I would not put too much emphasis on it yet but something to keep an eye on. A return to very wintry weather is increasingly likely (but not certain) at some stage in the coming 7 - 10 days. More later.
Hey Darkman2,

First up, I love your posts and will always click on a thread that you start or to which you make a contribution. However, there can be a slight tendancy to ramp, particularly at the prospect of snow. Reading your post above, I could not but help thining you would have preferred to have the following as the thread's title:

"Widespread Snow & Blizzards next week with -10oC temps widespread"

I am taking the p**s . Please don't let last week's failed snow prediction (for the east coast and midlands) dampen your spirit of enthusiasm. I want the real Darkman2 back!

On a serious note though, between the recent posts over on TWO and MT's post at 6pm tonight, it would appear the model runs are now moving towards another cold spell breaking out in the last week of January. If these indications are still in place and building by this Monday / Tuesday, we could be indeed heading back to a period of snow indeed. Interesting few days ahead
derekon is offline  
14-01-2011, 19:57   #15
BLIZZARD7
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,394
Quote:
Originally Posted by nacho libre View Post
What does MJO in phase 7 refer to? Thanks.
MJO = Madden/Julian Oscillation

Forecast to go into phase 7 -

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...lume_small.gif





Dan
BLIZZARD7 is offline  
(2) thanks from:
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet