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19-12-2010, 04:38   #1
darkman2
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Long Term Weather Outlook (Cold to continue?)

Hi all, latest 00z runs suggest that this very cold weather will continue for the forseeable future. Heavy snow is likely in the East and South - Tuesday and Wednesday look particularly disruptive. But there will be dry, sunny and icy weather too. Frost and ice won't thaw for the next week at least. Temperatures will be generally below freezing both day and night.



Please continue the long range discussion here.

Last edited by darkman2; 19-12-2010 at 04:46.
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19-12-2010, 04:47   #2
Grim.
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potentially the first white Christmas i will see in my life not quite the same now I'm 24 but the nieces and nephews should be happy

just need to get the shoppping ect sorted
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19-12-2010, 05:06   #3
darkman2
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It's a very good chance it will be a white Christmas for most - although snow may or may not fall on the day. Any snow you have on the ground now is likely to last.
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19-12-2010, 07:20   #4
derekon
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Originally Posted by darkman2 View Post
It's a very good chance it will be a white Christmas for most - although snow may or may not fall on the day. Any snow you have on the ground now is likely to last.
Hi Darkman,

The past few days have been a snowfest for the folks in the north and west of Ireland (who deserved the snow after what the East got a few weeks back!)

However, its been very disappointing for the East Coast / Dublin where a good deal of snow was forecast to fall by different sources - in reality around 0.001mm of snow has fallen. As someone from Dublin described it yesterday, it looks like a "heavy frost".

MT's forecast this morning does not instill much confidence for snow either. Its peppered with qualifications such as "possible". In fairness to MT though, he is working with models that are all over the place, thus rendering his daily forecasts very tricky / difficult to nail down.

My own gut feeling is that for folks in Leinster / Dublin, we might see the odd snow shower over the coming week. Just a pity that all the negative dew points over the past couple of days have gone to waste
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19-12-2010, 08:12   #5
 
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Indeed, I can't see any more snow for the east coast with the cold spell. No streamers from the irish sea developing and the one that did stand a chance yesterday when the wind changed fast became weak before it reached us.

GFS is showing some for mid week but I dont' see that materialising as it's been forecasting east coast snow all along but the closer we get it downgrades significantly. It's also forecasting rain all over Ireland for Stephen's day.

Delighted for the people in the west and south though, they really do deserve a good run of it!
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19-12-2010, 09:17   #6
 
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We got a decent covering of snow in Dundalk last night, easily a few cm's.
Strange snow though, its more like hail than snow. Roads are lethal
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19-12-2010, 09:27   #7
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I seem to be in a no-snow zone on the west coast, it's not fair, I want a white Christmas!!!
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19-12-2010, 10:43   #8
lucy2010
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Thanks Darkman for starting this one. Problem im finding is trying to trawl through the pages of nonsense to find whats actually happening. The will it snow at 7pm on my doorstep posts are getting annoying.

I for one just want to know whats the outlook; Yes it may not happen but at least we can be prepared ...

Woke this morning to a covering here on the coast ... biterly cold. Significant other now stuck in UK indeffinitely . 1 Very cranky mammy here with 3 kids & NO christmas tree......

Thanks again
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19-12-2010, 10:50   #9
DOCARCH
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No sign of a Christmas Day warm up (for the east coast anyway) on the 06z run. Still looking dry but cold.
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19-12-2010, 11:01   #10
M.T. Cranium
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The 06z GFS run, if it has finally found the acorn (blind squirrel etc) confirms the idea that this cold spell won't relent very easily. There isn't really an above normal day on the run, let alone a breakdown. I think weather forecasters around the region are going to have the breakdowns before the weather does at this rate.

Anyway, I hold out some hope for snow for just about all regions between now and Christmas, based on the concept I explained once before in another thread.

Suppose you have four or five days in a row with "slight chances" of something happening, in this case snow. Is it therefore true to say there is a slight chance of that happening any time in the four or five days?

No, and here's why, using the laws of probability.

I'll take as my example a theoretical 20% chance of snow from streamers any day now to Friday, that's six days, each with a 20% chance of snow. In fact the chances might be better than that, but I'll show that even with this rather grim negative-sounding assessment, you would probably get snow.

The probability chances of getting no snow in just three days, using that 20% figure, is this:

1.0 - (.8 x .8 x .8) =

1.0 - (.512) = .488

In other words, your chances of missing snow every day for three days in that sort of framework, would be 51.2% giving you a 48.8% chance to see snow. For six days, that reduces to a mere 26% chance of avoiding snow and a 74% chance of seeing snow.

In other words, a long-duration marginal setup usually delivers. Which day it delivers, makes for very difficult forecasting. But would look for the day with the strongest wind gradient from the best direction as your odds-makers' favourite. Personally, I think it will snow eventually just about everywhere in this set-up. But it will be dry most of the time too. The combination should suit everyone, the snow fancier, the merchant, the person who needs to travel -- let's hope everyone feels they got what they wanted for Christmas.
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19-12-2010, 11:08   #11
Brenireland
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well good news is that January will be nice and mild!,so just over one week left of this cold weather...although this is Joe Bastardai thats saying this & he to predicted heavy snowfall for Ireland/britain...happened for britain not really Ireland...

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...er=accuweather
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19-12-2010, 11:08   #12
irish1967
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LavaLamp View Post
I seem to be in a no-snow zone on the west coast, it's not fair, I want a white Christmas!!!
And just where is this mysterious no snow zone...? Slide in your location under your name and maybe someone will be able to tell you whether your snow shiels will hold.
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19-12-2010, 11:14   #13
desolate sun
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Hi guys. I got a good 2 inches of snow in County Sligo on Thurs nite/Friday. It's still there today.
I told everybody about the coming Snowmageddon that was predicted.
Even though I'm really happy with what I got, I wouldn't call it a Snowmageddon. Did other parts of the country get x feet snow drifts? I thought this was supposed to rival the winters of '47 and '63? Or did the models just downgrade?
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19-12-2010, 11:57   #14
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brenireland View Post
well good news is that January will be nice and mild!,so just over one week left of this cold weather...although this is Joe Bastardai thats saying this & he to predicted heavy snowfall for Ireland/britain...happened for britain not really Ireland...

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...er=accuweather
I wouldn't be so sure Bren if you are taking Joe prediction i wouldn't go running to the bookies. So far Joe has got the weather in these parts this winter wrong. I like Joe forcasts but the modules are prolonging the cold spell and yes and on into January.
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19-12-2010, 12:04   #15
ciaran67
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Originally Posted by desolate sun View Post
Hi guys. I got a good 2 inches of snow in County Sligo on Thurs nite/Friday. It's still there today.
I told everybody about the coming Snowmageddon that was predicted.
Even though I'm really happy with what I got, I wouldn't call it a Snowmageddon. Did other parts of the country get x feet snow drifts? I thought this was supposed to rival the winters of '47 and '63? Or did the models just downgrade?
I know, bit more wishful thinking than correct predictions. Thought we were going to get tons of the white stuff. Hey ho... roll on warmer weather please!
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