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Long Term Weather Outlook (Cold to continue?)

  • 19-12-2010 4:38am
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭


    Hi all, latest 00z runs suggest that this very cold weather will continue for the forseeable future. Heavy snow is likely in the East and South - Tuesday and Wednesday look particularly disruptive. But there will be dry, sunny and icy weather too. Frost and ice won't thaw for the next week at least. Temperatures will be generally below freezing both day and night.



    Please continue the long range discussion here.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Grim.


    potentially the first white Christmas i will see in my life not quite the same now I'm 24 but the nieces and nephews should be happy

    just need to get the shoppping ect sorted :(


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    It's a very good chance it will be a white Christmas for most - although snow may or may not fall on the day. Any snow you have on the ground now is likely to last.


  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    darkman2 wrote: »
    It's a very good chance it will be a white Christmas for most - although snow may or may not fall on the day. Any snow you have on the ground now is likely to last.

    Hi Darkman,

    The past few days have been a snowfest for the folks in the north and west of Ireland (who deserved the snow after what the East got a few weeks back!)

    However, its been very disappointing for the East Coast / Dublin where a good deal of snow was forecast to fall by different sources - in reality around 0.001mm of snow has fallen. As someone from Dublin described it yesterday, it looks like a "heavy frost".

    MT's forecast this morning does not instill much confidence for snow either. Its peppered with qualifications such as "possible". In fairness to MT though, he is working with models that are all over the place, thus rendering his daily forecasts very tricky / difficult to nail down.

    My own gut feeling is that for folks in Leinster / Dublin, we might see the odd snow shower over the coming week. Just a pity that all the negative dew points over the past couple of days have gone to waste :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 270 ✭✭Elmo5


    Indeed, I can't see any more snow for the east coast with the cold spell. No streamers from the irish sea developing and the one that did stand a chance yesterday when the wind changed fast became weak before it reached us.

    GFS is showing some for mid week but I dont' see that materialising as it's been forecasting east coast snow all along but the closer we get it downgrades significantly. It's also forecasting rain all over Ireland for Stephen's day.

    Delighted for the people in the west and south though, they really do deserve a good run of it!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 298 ✭✭mac80


    We got a decent covering of snow in Dundalk last night, easily a few cm's.
    Strange snow though, its more like hail than snow. Roads are lethal


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  • Registered Users Posts: 284 ✭✭LavaLamp


    I seem to be in a no-snow zone on the west coast, it's not fair, I want a white Christmas!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 774 ✭✭✭lucy2010


    Thanks Darkman for starting this one. Problem im finding is trying to trawl through the pages of nonsense to find whats actually happening. The will it snow at 7pm on my doorstep posts are getting annoying.

    I for one just want to know whats the outlook; Yes it may not happen but at least we can be prepared ...

    Woke this morning to a covering here on the coast ... biterly cold. Significant other now stuck in UK indeffinitely . 1 Very cranky mammy here with 3 kids & NO christmas tree......

    Thanks again


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,596 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    No sign of a Christmas Day warm up (for the east coast anyway) on the 06z run. Still looking dry but cold.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The 06z GFS run, if it has finally found the acorn (blind squirrel etc) confirms the idea that this cold spell won't relent very easily. There isn't really an above normal day on the run, let alone a breakdown. I think weather forecasters around the region are going to have the breakdowns before the weather does at this rate.

    Anyway, I hold out some hope for snow for just about all regions between now and Christmas, based on the concept I explained once before in another thread.

    Suppose you have four or five days in a row with "slight chances" of something happening, in this case snow. Is it therefore true to say there is a slight chance of that happening any time in the four or five days?

    No, and here's why, using the laws of probability.

    I'll take as my example a theoretical 20% chance of snow from streamers any day now to Friday, that's six days, each with a 20% chance of snow. In fact the chances might be better than that, but I'll show that even with this rather grim negative-sounding assessment, you would probably get snow.

    The probability chances of getting no snow in just three days, using that 20% figure, is this:

    1.0 - (.8 x .8 x .8) =

    1.0 - (.512) = .488

    In other words, your chances of missing snow every day for three days in that sort of framework, would be 51.2% giving you a 48.8% chance to see snow. For six days, that reduces to a mere 26% chance of avoiding snow and a 74% chance of seeing snow.

    In other words, a long-duration marginal setup usually delivers. Which day it delivers, makes for very difficult forecasting. But would look for the day with the strongest wind gradient from the best direction as your odds-makers' favourite. Personally, I think it will snow eventually just about everywhere in this set-up. But it will be dry most of the time too. The combination should suit everyone, the snow fancier, the merchant, the person who needs to travel -- let's hope everyone feels they got what they wanted for Christmas.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭Brenireland


    well good news is that January will be nice and mild!,so just over one week left of this cold weather...although this is Joe Bastardai thats saying this & he to predicted heavy snowfall for Ireland/britain...happened for britain not really Ireland...

    http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    LavaLamp wrote: »
    I seem to be in a no-snow zone on the west coast, it's not fair, I want a white Christmas!!!
    And just where is this mysterious no snow zone...? Slide in your location under your name and maybe someone will be able to tell you whether your snow shiels will hold. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 347 ✭✭desolate sun


    Hi guys. I got a good 2 inches of snow in County Sligo on Thurs nite/Friday. It's still there today.
    I told everybody about the coming Snowmageddon that was predicted.
    Even though I'm really happy with what I got, I wouldn't call it a Snowmageddon. Did other parts of the country get x feet snow drifts? I thought this was supposed to rival the winters of '47 and '63? Or did the models just downgrade?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    well good news is that January will be nice and mild!,so just over one week left of this cold weather...although this is Joe Bastardai thats saying this & he to predicted heavy snowfall for Ireland/britain...happened for britain not really Ireland...

    http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

    I wouldn't be so sure Bren if you are taking Joe prediction i wouldn't go running to the bookies. So far Joe has got the weather in these parts this winter wrong. I like Joe forcasts but the modules are prolonging the cold spell and yes and on into January.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,578 ✭✭✭ciaran67


    Hi guys. I got a good 2 inches of snow in County Sligo on Thurs nite/Friday. It's still there today.
    I told everybody about the coming Snowmageddon that was predicted.
    Even though I'm really happy with what I got, I wouldn't call it a Snowmageddon. Did other parts of the country get x feet snow drifts? I thought this was supposed to rival the winters of '47 and '63? Or did the models just downgrade?

    I know, bit more wishful thinking than correct predictions. Thought we were going to get tons of the white stuff. Hey ho... roll on warmer weather please! :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,819 ✭✭✭✭peasant


    Metcheck shows this for Sligo:

    140030.JPG

    Now, I know, it's "only" Metcheck and it's usually wrong ...but feck me ....that's COLD ! :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Hi all, latest 00z runs suggest that this very cold weather will continue for the forseeable future. Heavy snow is likely in the East and South - Tuesday and Wednesday look particularly disruptive. But there will be dry, sunny and icy weather too. Frost and ice won't thaw for the next week at least. Temperatures will be generally below freezing both day and night.



    Please continue the long range discussion here.

    Just saw the snow threat your talking about on the Hirlam Model, but will prob change again, if that did come off the east and south would be buried:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    well good news is that January will be nice and mild!,so just over one week left of this cold weather...although this is Joe Bastardai thats saying this & he to predicted heavy snowfall for Ireland/britain...happened for britain not really Ireland...

    http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

    He came on board in the end. he said December would be around normal in his original long range forecast. of course a wonky clock is right twice a day, so if he keeps saying it's going to get milder he'll be right eventually. anyway you seem to have changed your tune, you are not a true snow fan. you disappoint me Bren:(


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Hi guys. I got a good 2 inches of snow in County Sligo on Thurs nite/Friday. It's still there today.
    I told everybody about the coming Snowmageddon that was predicted.
    Even though I'm really happy with what I got, I wouldn't call it a Snowmageddon. Did other parts of the country get x feet snow drifts? I thought this was supposed to rival the winters of '47 and '63? Or did the models just downgrade?

    that was an unrealistic expectation in terms of snow. 1947 was a once off - 30 snow days out of 50 consecutive cold days there were in 1947. that's not happening again, and in all honesty, even as die hard snow fan i wouldn't want to see a re- run of 1947. it would be just too much for this country to deal with right now on top of everything else.

    as for 1962/63
    This December is currently colder than 62-63, again it doesn't compare in terms of snow depth, still in saying that i've had more snow than i've ever seen in my life, and parts of the east had even more. so it's easily the greatest December for snow in over 20 years, at least for the north and west anyway.
    I think we'll only really appreciate its significance in the years to come when we're back to weeks and weeks of mild south westerlies and relying on a two day northerly for snow


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    even as die hard snow fan i wouldn't want to see a re- run of 1947.
    Youre not a true die hard snow fan then like me :D :pac:



    1947 was a once off - 30 snow days out of 50 consecutive cold days there were in 1947. that's not happening again,
    Once offs are once offs till they happen twice ;)
    Anything is possible with Nature


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    GFS 06z had a very slight snow risk every day from now until christmas,(for the east) turning to rain at christmas. Of course we all know the GFS is extremely unreliable at the moment, but going by MT's probablility stats, . .. i know i'm clutching at straws, but i really really really want a white christmas ( doesn't have to be significant accumulations or anything) and the dusting here (0.5cms) is not likely to last that long, a little bit melts every day in the sun. And i dont think a dusting counts as a white christmas anyway!!! . . .time to start praying for strong streamers . . .


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,634 ✭✭✭Mayo Exile


    12Z GFS is similar now to the ECMWF in anticipating a warming trend for Xmas Day. But as with all the model runs for the last few days, terms & conditions apply!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Pangea wrote: »
    Youre not a true die hard snow fan then like me :D :pac:





    Once offs are once offs till they happen twice ;)
    Anything is possible with Nature

    haha. perhaps not:D


    yes, it's possible we could see another winter like 1947 in your lifetime, it's also possible you'll win the lotto. on the balance of probability, though, it won't happen again in our lifetime.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    NAE for Tuesday, take it with the smallest pinch of salt you can:D

    10122112_1912.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,925 ✭✭✭th3 s1aught3r


    peasant wrote: »
    Metcheck shows this for Sligo:

    140030.JPG

    Now, I know, it's "only" Metcheck and it's usually wrong ...but feck me ....that's COLD ! :eek:

    That is damn cold alright
    Anyone know what the Irish temperature records are ?, we must be near breaking some records in 2010


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    Hi guys. I got a good 2 inches of snow in County Sligo on Thurs nite/Friday. It's still there today.
    I told everybody about the coming Snowmageddon that was predicted.
    Even though I'm really happy with what I got, I wouldn't call it a Snowmageddon. Did other parts of the country get x feet snow drifts? I thought this was supposed to rival the winters of '47 and '63? Or did the models just downgrade?

    I have to say that I found the expert forecasts here - such as M.T.‘s - remarkably accurate, especially given the constraints of predicting the future of anything, let alone the dynamic and unpredictability of the weather.

    I think people - myself included - sometimes like to read forecasts with a bias to what they are hoping what will happen, more than what is actually being said. E.g. I don’t think any of the experts here actually said it would be ‘snowmageddon‘.

    I’ve also said it many times here before - based on experience (living in Britain) and instinct - when snowmageddon does decide to pay us a visit it won’t be giving us much prior notice, it will turn up on our doorsteps at the last moment, Mother nature will turn heel at the last moment and unleash her white fury and we wont see it coming.


  • Registered Users Posts: 246 ✭✭Takca


    Hi guys. I got a good 2 inches of snow in County Sligo on Thurs nite/Friday. It's still there today.
    I told everybody about the coming Snowmageddon that was predicted.
    Even though I'm really happy with what I got, I wouldn't call it a Snowmageddon. Did other parts of the country get x feet snow drifts? I thought this was supposed to rival the winters of '47 and '63? Or did the models just downgrade?

    In sligo as well (ballymote) and I have in total of 13cm on top of a car that hasn't moved all week, I'm not sure by how much but the bottom must have compacted a little. Not Snowmageddon but just goes to show the difference you can expect in different part of the county.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,080 ✭✭✭fjon


    That is damn cold alright
    Anyone know what the Irish temperature records are ?, we must be near breaking some records in 2010

    This is from the met eireann site. Still possible the record could be broken.

    Regarding extremes, the highest air temperature recorded in Ireland was + 33.3°C at Kilkenny Castle 26th June 1887. The record maximum during the 20th century is +32.5°C at Boora, Co. Offaly on 29th June 1976. The lowest air temperature was -19.1°C measured at Markree Castle, Co. Sligo on 16th January 1881 while the lowest observed 20th century air temperature was -18.8°C recorded at Lullymore, Co. Kildare on 2nd January 1979. The lowest observed grass minimum temperature was -19.6°C at Dublin (Glasnevin) on 12th January 1982 which was almost matched by the -19.5°C measured at Lullymore, Co. Kildare on 2nd January 1979.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I regret to say the uk met office outlook is very bad - if you are a cold and snow enthusiast - after Christmas Day. They are saying it will be unsettled with a gradual return to normal temperatures after Christmas Day and it will stay that way well into January.

    I know some of us might want to dismiss this as too far out to be sure about, but remember they were right about the cold taking hold, when some of the models weren't having it, and the cold continuing throughout December despite the wavering from the various models.

    It's also worth remembering M.T. in his long range forecast did say he expected milder weather, possibly very mild, to take hold in early January for a week or possibly two at least. This is similar to what the uk met office is now saying in their 16-30 day outlook.

    I would love if they were wrong but i don't think they are:(
    If they are right let's just hope the cold goes out with a bang rather than a whimper.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    I regret to say the uk met office outlook is very bad - if you are a cold and snow enthusiast - after Christmas Day. They are saying it will be unsettled with a gradual return to normal temperatures after Christmas Day and it will stay that way well into January.

    I know some of us might want to dismiss this as too far out to be sure about, but remember they were right about the cold taking hold, when some of the models weren't having it, and the cold continuing throughout December despite the wavering from the various models.

    It's also worth remembering M.T. in his long range forecast did say he expected milder weather, possibly very mild, to take hold in early January for a week or possibly two at least. This is similar to what the uk met office is now saying in their 16-30 day outlook.

    I would love if they were wrong but i don't think they are:(
    If they are right let's just hope the cold goes out with a bang rather than a whimper.

    Even if they are right Nacho, there is still plenty of winter left for the cold and snow to come back with avengence after that potential mild spell.

    It might be no harm having a break before that.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 292 ✭✭roryc1


    Well the ECM 00z are bringing this cold spell to an end with a hurricane on the 27th :rolleyes: http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php


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