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Severe weather: Snow and Ice and sub zero temperatures from Thursday

  • 13-12-2010 9:08am
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    The models looking a bit more solid now. Basically on Thursday a band of rain will sink South early in the day turning to sleet and snow as it passes with the possibility of minor accumulations but nothing disruptive. Temperatures on Thursday will be increasingly cold, in fact, it will get cold so fast that whilst the day itself will start out at the dizzy heights of 6 or 7C it will end on temperatures sub zero almost nationwide. Ice will develope fast and could possibly effect rush hour home traffic.

    Soon on Thursday heavy snow showers will pack into the North and Northwest and this will continue Thursday night and through Friday.

    Thursday night will be very cold with temperatures between -2 and -6C generally. It will be drier away from the North for the first half of the night. However showers will push further inland as the night goes on reaching most places later in the night before clearing on Friday morning. These could bring appreciable accumulations - as much as 5 - 10cm but more in the North and Northwest.

    Friday will be extremely cold. Temperatures will not rise above freezing all day and there will be snow showers esspecially in the West, Northwest, North and East of the country. Further probrably large accumulations likely.
    Max Temperatures on Friday -2 to -5C.

    Friday night countinues very cold and icy with further snow showers and futher laying snow. Temperatures as low as -9 or -10 locally. -4 to -8C more generally.


    Saturday again will be exceptionally cold - temperatures not rising above freezing for most however this is where any uncertainty comes in. A depression will be centered over or very near the country and the winds will be variable - most likely Southerly or Southeasterly. Snow could occur just about anywhere and Saturday night is likely to be another viciously cold night under slack winds. More prolonged snow is most likely in the South and later the East into Sunday.

    Sunday another very cold day with sub zero maxes mostly. Winds turning Northeastly at that stage and may strengthen a little.

    The weekend on is still up in the air (pardon the pun!) a little bit but that's my closest interpretation. Will post charts as illustrations aswell later on.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,604 ✭✭✭dave1982


    Cork to miss out again:rolleyes:

    Thanks for info


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭wildefalcon


    dave1982 wrote: »
    Cork to miss out again:rolleyes:

    Thanks for info

    What IS it with Cork residents and snow? It seems like every weather thread is peppered with people asking

    "will it snow in Corrk, boy?"

    Yes, it will snow in Cork.

    Happy?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,277 ✭✭✭shiibata


    Have to drive Donegal-Tullamore on Saturday, that looks as though it could be fun:(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    What IS it with Cork residents and snow? It seems like every weather thread is peppered with people asking

    "will it snow in Corrk, boy?" Yes, it will snow in Cork. Happy?

    That's because Cork is protected by an ancient shield or forcefield against the worst of weather.

    This was graphically illustrated during the recent snow episode where weather came from the SE, pummelling Waterford and Mallow, turned SW dumped a little on Macroom and pummled other parts of the west and Kerry.

    Now when one sees this as graphically as this, it get spookier.


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭wildefalcon


    gbee wrote: »
    That's because Cork is protected by an ancient shield or forcefield against the worst of weather.

    This was graphically illustrated during the recent snow episode where weather came from the SE, pummelling Waterford and Mallow, turned SW dumped a little on Macroom and pummled other parts of the west and Kerry.

    Now when one sees this as graphically as this, it get spookier.

    Get over it, like.


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  • Posts: 0 Lisa Wailing Rite


    A word of caution...
    The NWS in the states have binned the midnight gfs run as they think it is unreliable compared to other weather models and it's the gfs thats often used here/quoted here as it's completely free'ly available as opposed to the ECM and ukmo which are limited availability to the public.

    Basically they are alluding that this current pattern is not locked down long term but rather it is uncertain.
    In the case of the gfs model,it is uncertain in the short term solutions it's giving which means T96 + with it at the moment is rubbish


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,248 ✭✭✭rhonin


    Met Eireann's early take on things.

    Thursday the winds will become fresh to strong and gusty and veer northerly. Rain will spread southwards followed by very cold conditions. The rain will turn to sleet as it becomes colder and then clear to wintry showers. Thursday night the wintry showers will continue along the north and west coast with the risk of thunder. It will be very cold with lowest temperatures of -2 to -5 degrees with a sharp to severe frost as the winds ease and skies clear. Friday will see further wintry showers along the north and west coast with the risk of thunder. It will be very cold with top temperatures just around freezing.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    Get over it, like.

    No actually I'm quite excited, it means we have a buried Statgate here somewhere. Or an ancient monument more powerful than Stonehenge.


    Or... or maybe it's the White Witch of Cobh protecting us, maybe we should send her on an all expenses paid holiday somewhere?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    A word of caution...
    The NWS in the states have binned the midnight gfs run as they think it is unreliable compared to other weather models and it's the gfs thats often used here/quoted here as it's completely free'ly available as opposed to the ECM and ukmo which are limited availability to the public.

    Basically they are alluding that this current pattern is not locked down long term but rather it is uncertain.
    In the case of the gfs model,it is uncertain in the short term solutions it's giving which means T96 + with it at the moment is rubbish

    It's ok - I have blended the UKMO and ECM in the OP. Actually the only item I used the GFS for was surface temperature due to it's high resolution. The weekend is still a doubt you are right there but is most likely to come off as most suggest - very cold and wintry.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    gbee wrote: »
    That's because Cork is protected by an ancient shield or forcefield against the worst of weather.

    This was graphically illustrated during the recent snow episode where weather came from the SE, pummelling Waterford and Mallow, turned SW dumped a little on Macroom and pummled other parts of the west and Kerry.

    Now when one sees this as graphically as this, it get spookier.

    pummelling mallow???? there was just a snow flurry?!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    pummelling mallow???? there was just a snow flurry?!

    I took a bit of artistic licence, maybe!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,315 ✭✭✭sunbabe08


    pummelling mallow???? there was just a snow flurry?!

    but he's right, although dont know where he got the idea mallow got a pummelling :confused:


    also, look at the recent map from space, north east of us white with snow. south west of us, white with snow. seriously cant understand how west cork got all that snow and we a half a hour of it. damn force field


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,016 ✭✭✭✭vibe666


    pummelling mallow???? there was just a snow flurry?!
    is that some sort of dodgy porn reference? :pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    vibe666 wrote: »
    is that some sort of dodgy porn reference? :pac:

    Wouldn't know, if it is please suggest a substitute word, thanks.


  • Site Banned Posts: 4,415 ✭✭✭MilanPan!c


    So nothing for Dublin initially??


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    There should be light snow showers during Thursday in Dublin and more significant snow later Friday night may leave a few cm's. Hard to be specific about precipitation this far out though.

    If the 6z GFS came off the East would be buried on Saturday (just an example of what could happen).

    gfs-2-126.png?6


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    Given the speed of the arctic express arriving on Thursday is there a faster radar site than raintoday ?? Someone closer to live ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    Latest BBC Monthly Outlook:

    "A visit from the North Pole...

    ...without any reindeer and well before the 24th. By the end of the first week a harsh northerly wind will have dropped temperatures to freezing and left a layer of snow for many. From that point on, there is no indication of a significant thaw or warming trend so hard night frosts, possibly lasting throughout the day again, are back. Snow seems likely to fall - not for all but for many. Sunshine will be above average for some parts of the UK, changing depending on the exact wind direction.

    Monday 13 December 2010 to Sunday 19 December 2010
    Cold then colder

    The week starts already colder than the weekend started. Fog in the Welsh Marches, Vale of York and one or two other places characteristic of this pressure pattern - i.e. anticyclonic. Night frosts are widespread but not hard, but ice is a problem as the banked up snow in Scotland and eastern England thaws by day. A significant change happens on Thursday as a spell of significant rain on a cold front moves north to south during the day. he rapid invasion of Arctic air behind means a significant black ice risk on Thursday night. Confidence is rising that on Thursday night significant snow will fall in eastern England and during Friday significant snow is possible in Northern Ireland Wales and western England. If confidence lowers then please unread the last paragraph."

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209/


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5 L.perenne


    dave1982 wrote: »
    Cork to miss out again:rolleyes:

    Thanks for info

    It might be interesting to note here that in the past the south-west of Ireland may have been a glacial refugia in the past ice age. For example frogs in the SW of Ireland are gentically distinct & it is theorised that this is the cause. Here is a link to a recent paper on the issue. There are other examples of this too in the plant kingdom.

    http://www.nature.com/hdy/journal/v102/n5/full/hdy2008133a.html

    Maybe Cork will never get snow!


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    06z gfs is fantastic in terms of snow potential


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  • Registered Users Posts: 97 ✭✭Betty-ireland


    Looking good for a white Christmas so!!!!

    One question if ye don't mid though, himself is due to fly to Liverpool on Wed morning, and coming home Thursday at 11am, any chances his flight will be affected? Thanks :D


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Looking good for a white Christmas so!!!!

    One question if ye don't mid though, himself is due to fly to Liverpool on Wed morning, and coming home Thursday at 11am, any chances his flight will be affected? Thanks :D

    Pretty certain it won't be. Should not be a problem.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,248 ✭✭✭rhonin


    06z gfs is fantastic in terms of snow potential

    Its a snow lover's dream! Obviosuly things can change but....

    uksnowrisk.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 97 ✭✭Betty-ireland


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Pretty certain it won't be. Should not be a problem.

    Excellent, thank you!!! It can snow all it likes after that lol!! Even though we still have last weeks snow!


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    You really shouldn't have shown that chart! People from Cork will be flinging the toys out of the pram again:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Looks fantastic I must say, Hopefully I should get a good bit of snow out of this even though Im in the 'red' shaded area of Donegal lol.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Snowfall accumulation charts for southwest Ireland by next Monday are astonishing. Very much doubt it will pan out like that but wow...


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    Pangea wrote: »
    Looks fantastic I must say, Hopefully I should get a good bit of snow out of this even though Im in the 'red' shaded area of Donegal lol.

    And yet again I am in the PINKY area. !!


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,237 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    You really shouldn't have shown that chart! People from Cork will be flinging the toys out of the pram again:D

    Oh jesus you have no idea....heart failure is imminent..:(


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  • Registered Users Posts: 738 ✭✭✭Timistry


    You really shouldn't have shown that chart! People from Cork will be flinging the toys out of the pram again:D

    I have to keep telling myself that this is just a snapshot for a certain moment in time! I lol'd when i saw darkman's precip chart showing Ireland under seige from heavy snow and munster with no precip of note:p


This discussion has been closed.
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