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Damaging winds Thursday 13:00 onward

  • 10-11-2010 5:58am
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Extreme wind conditions will effect the country for approx 12 - 14 hours from 3pm Thursday - Severe gusts and damage likely. Gusts could be over 100mph especially in exposed areas. More typically 60 - 80mph. I think tile, tree, power line damage is quite likely. It will feel like more of a storm then the last one which was not a storm at all but anyway......also heavy rain for a while tomorrow night with the slight possibility of flooding near low river banks. The North and West will bare the brunt of the strong winds.

    Big waves can be expected on the Atlantc seaboard again.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    Come to daddy !! :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Latest met eireann forecast downgraded highest gusts in exposed areas from 130kph to 120kph, so no higher gusts anywhere more than 75mph on the official forecast.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    Just listened to OceanFM which covers southwest Donegal and not a word yet. I think a lot of people are going to be surprised tomorrow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    I think the last so called storm got so much press that this time they dont want to get it wrong.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,523 ✭✭✭jambofc


    just seen the bbc weather and hardly a mention,just a bit windy with blustery showers :confused:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    Can we close the ' Potentially ' thread so we are all in the one place :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    jambofc wrote: »
    just seen the bbc weather and hardly a mention,just a bit windy with blustery showers :confused:

    UKMO have said they will be issuing warnings for severe gales in a few hours.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    I hope I will be reading this thread in the memorable weather threads in a few days.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    MODS can you decide which thread we are going to use for this storm otherwise people will be posting in two different threads for the same event and may miss something


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    The US have Carmen (let's start referring to it by her proper name!) developing hurricane force winds out to sea by tonight, which again I think is a slight exaggeration.

    10111000_2_1000.gif

    The 00Z ECMWF has downgraded winds to 40-45 kts affecting the northwest coastal areas, the GFS up to 55kts. Still a bit to play for...


  • Registered Users Posts: 37,295 ✭✭✭✭the_syco


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Extreme wind conditions will effect the country for approx 12 - 14 hours from 3pm Thursday - Severe gusts and damage likely.
    Hrm. Footie at 18:30 will be fun, then :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    06Z GFS doesn't change much but upgrades the winds for the southwest and southeast areas :

    10xbhv7.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Su Campu wrote: »
    The 00Z ECMWF has downgraded winds to 40-45 kts affecting the northwest coastal areas, the GFS up to 55kts. Still a bit to play for...

    That would probably explain then why the Met Eireann forecast has gone down to 120kph max gusts.

    Still plenty of time for further downgrades/upgrades.... its all part of the rollercoaster to me :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    Carmen is starting to slide south I notice :( Knowing my luck with previous weather events ( last years snow shiels on the border ) I'll be stuck in the calm eye of the storm ! :mad:


  • Registered Users Posts: 197 ✭✭snowjon


    Interesting extended forecast for the inshore waters around the North Irish coast:
    Wind - West or southwest gale 8 to storm 10, increasing violent storm 11 for a time, veering northwest later.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/coast/inshore/regional_forecast.shtml?13

    Not often Violent Storm 11 appears in these forecasts :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    snowjon wrote: »

    Not often Violent Storm 11 appears in these forecasts :eek:

    Always remember loving hearing "Violent Storm Force 11" on the RTE sea area forecasts while listening to the radio under the blankets as a kid. Havent heard it in years (decades actually but I dont say that too loud ;) )


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Important to remember those winds at sea are always going to be higher than on land. But back in 1997 sustained violent storm force winds were recorded on land, at Cork and Shannon airports. That was a serious storm, I'll never forget it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    From the UKMO :

    Advisory of severe or extreme weather

    UK regions:
    North West England
    Wales
    Yorkshire & Humber
    East Midlands

    There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting Northwest England, some Pennine areas, and parts of North Wales during Thursday evening. Westerly to southwesterly winds are expected to gust 70 to 80 mph around exposed coastal areas and over hills, with gusts of 55 to 65 mph further inland. Winds should ease into Friday morning.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html


    Interesting there is no mention of N Ireland there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 197 ✭✭snowjon


    From the UKMO :

    Advisory of severe or extreme weather

    UK regions:
    North West England
    Wales
    Yorkshire & Humber
    East Midlands

    There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting Northwest England, some Pennine areas, and parts of North Wales during Thursday evening. Westerly to southwesterly winds are expected to gust 70 to 80 mph around exposed coastal areas and over hills, with gusts of 55 to 65 mph further inland. Winds should ease into Friday morning.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html


    Interesting there is no mention of N Ireland there.

    Quite often, the warnings take a while to trickle out, so maybe something for Northern Ireland in the next 15 minutes or so.....


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    There are some charts that are worth framing ! (Red dot is me)

    Dreamwind.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29




    Ill say estofex will hav a level one waring issued for this by 2nite, Surprised to see M E not having a Weather warning issued for it yet.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 385 ✭✭Shamanic


    Folks I know nothing about weather but don't kick me out just yet because I'm a serial lurker in these threads!! Just wondering if winds as such, if they transpire, would effect domestic flights? Supposed to flying back to Dublin from cork on Thursday at 5pm?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Ill say estofex will hav a level one waring issued for this by 2nite, Surprised to see M E not having a Weather warning issued for it yet.

    We got a level 1 for sunday night, I think a level 2 is possible with those kind of charts.

    I'd expect there will be a Met Eireann warning on the next update. I'm sure they will want to wait long enough to make sure it is as accurate as possible.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Shamanic wrote: »
    Folks I know nothing about weather but don't kick me out just yet because I'm a serial lurker in these threads!! Just wondering if winds as such, if they transpire, would effect domestic flights? Supposed to flying back to Dublin from cork on Thursday at 5pm?

    Bumpy ride for sure , MEs forecast for dublin 2moro "Rain will move away and will leave a showery day. Some of the showers thundery or of hail. Becoming even more windy with some severe gusts in particular along coastal parts. Highs of 10 to 13 degrees."


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    snowjon wrote: »
    Quite often, the warnings take a while to trickle out, so maybe something for Northern Ireland in the next 15 minutes or so.....

    I'd imagine that has to be the case. Either that or they think the track might end up a lot further south? Models don't suggest that though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    We got a level 1 for sunday night, I think a level 2 is possible with those kind of charts.

    I'd expect there will be a Met Eireann warning on the next update. I'm sure they will want to wait long enough to make sure it is as accurate as possible.

    Ye i agree, with level 2 more confined over the northern half of the country. Even tough ill be in dublin im still looking forward to it :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,456 ✭✭✭✭Mr Benevolent


    Shamanic wrote: »
    Folks I know nothing about weather but don't kick me out just yet because I'm a serial lurker in these threads!! Just wondering if winds as such, if they transpire, would effect domestic flights? Supposed to flying back to Dublin from cork on Thursday at 5pm?

    Get the train.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Confab wrote: »
    Get the train.

    +1


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 385 ✭✭Shamanic


    Confab wrote: »
    Get the train.

    If only it was that simple! It's all booked via work so it's always planes, best bring a change of clothes could be in for a long wait!


This discussion has been closed.
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