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The Week Ahead - Discussion - Potentially Storm Thursday

  • 08-11-2010 4:27pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    I think the strongest winds will be for a time on Wednesday evening/night, just ahead of the surface warm front.


«1345678

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Will turn windy again in the east as the mature cyclone pushes south across the country this evening.

    Showers will begin to pepper the coast with a few TS's and hail possible along with gusts to 50mph.

    Wednesday a storm depression bombs south of Iceland and heads north of Ireland and into Scotland.

    Strong gradient to the south of the storm will spread gales and storm force winds for the northwest and north coasts.

    Exact track of low subject to uncertainty, exhibits characteristics of extreme storm system with intense gradient, so it is an extremely dangerous storm and must be monitored.

    If pushed 100mph south would pose great risk to Irish mainland.

    Storm early Thursday
    Rtavn661.png

    Storm Thursday evening
    Rtavn841.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Su Campu wrote: »
    I think the strongest winds will be for a time on Wednesday evening/night, just ahead of the surface warm front.

    Snap:D;)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Surprised your saying Wednesday Su, the models are pointing more to Thursday/Friday. Why Wednesday evening/night??

    10111100_0812.gif
    10111200_0812.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,237 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    OOOH are things looking up again lads?:D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    As Maq & Su have pointed out, could be windy later on in the week. Latest ECMWF has a tightening gradient developing of the NW coast on Thurday which could bring the risk of gales to northern areas especially:

    134171.png

    In no way a definate, but could be one to keep an eye on.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,237 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    As Maq & Su have pointed out, could be windy later on in the week. Latest ECMWF has a tightening gradient developing of the NW coast on Thurday which could bring the risk of gales to northern areas especially:


    In no way a definate, but could be one to keep an eye on.

    Cool....and here we go again:)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    The models have been fairly consistent on this since Friday of last week.
    They have had and continue to have the system tracking eastwards over Scotland. Strongest winds most likely to be seen in the northern two thirds of the country, with the SW escaping the worst of the winds. Gusts of 45-50 knots are likely with sustained winds of between 35-40 knots for a time. This is based on latest model output.

    134170.GIF


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    The models have been fairly consistent on this since Friday of last week.
    They have had and continue to have the system tracking eastwards over Scotland. Strongest winds most likely to be seen in the northern two thirds of the country, with the SW escaping the worst of the winds. Gusts of 45-50 knots are likely with sustained winds of between 35-40 knots for a time. This is based on latest model output.

    134170.GIF

    UKMO has the low developing slower and later thus tracking a decent stretch further south, the UKMO chart is of concern and any further developments would warrant a warning. 0z models will be crucial in determining whether issuing an early weather advisory is necessary.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Posted this is another thread but....

    2ish7ag.gif

    Strongest winds highlighted there, so if the centre of the low was further south it could be quite stormy in places.

    As it stands now though, based on the 12Z GFS.....

    30dcs4k.gif

    Gales / Strong Gales possible down along the northeast, east and southeast coastal areas.

    Worth watching but these lows tend to drift further to the north by the time they come around!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Surprised your saying Wednesday Su, the models are pointing more to Thursday/Friday. Why Wednesday evening/night??


    I was looking at the 00Z FAX charts and the tightest gradients were ahead of the system. I must admit I haven't looked at later runs.

    00_UKMet_Boden+72.gif


    00_UKMet_Boden+84.gif


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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,396 ✭✭✭weisses


    That's a pretty low system ... 950mbar they won't get much lower then that are they ?? :eek: :confused:


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    weisses wrote: »
    That's a pretty low system ... 950mbar they won't get much lower then that are they ?? :eek: :confused:

    Becky/Last night's low was only about 9 hpa higher than that. The difference is not just that this has lower pressure but it has a better core structure and tighter isobars. It's not a flabby one. :P (On this model anyway)

    Oh, and the storm of 1839 was 918.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Big_Wind


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Becky/Last night's low was only about 9 hpa higher than that. The difference is not just that this has lower pressure but it has a better core structure and tighter isobars. It's not a flabby one. :P (On this model anyway)

    Oh, and the storm of 1839 was 918.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Big_Wind

    I think Becky leveled off at around 956hPa in the end.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z GME looks a bit more nasty.

    2yzluo6.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly



    Oh, and the storm of 1839 was 918.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Big_Wind

    Bring that on!

    134178.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z NAE has the centre of the low a bit further SE than the GFS and UKMO at 48 hours.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    if the latest ecmwf chart were to verify - then gusts of 60-70 mph possibly could occur in the extreme north and northwest of the country.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    if the latest ecmwf chart were to verify - then gusts of 60-70 mph possibly could occur in the extreme north and northwest of the country.

    is the 12z out yet?

    Can't see it myself and this thing is on the upgrade.

    12z will ramp it up SIG compared to the 0z i would of guessed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    is the 12z out yet?

    Can't see it myself and this thing is on the upgrade.

    12z will ramp it up SIG compared to the 0z i would of guessed.

    no it isn't. i was basing it on this chart posted earlier:134171.png

    sorry for the confusion.


  • Registered Users Posts: 347 ✭✭isle of man


    so i could expect the same as last night for this then.

    after seeing the mess this moring i think the winds in places were well over 80mph.
    a 8mtx4mt shed with rsj in it . not bolted to the ground was flung 8ft up and over a hedge!!!!.
    and 66mm of rain in 24 hours!!!!!!!!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z ECM is an upgrade alright...


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    ECM is very similar to the GFS

    No need for alarm as the Low is just far enough north to leave the severe winds just to the north but still impacting the northwest and north coast.

    Although the low would trek eastwards from there for a closer impact.

    Recm721.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Yep, very similar at T72. ECM looks a bit more intense than the GFS but pointless to microcompare them at this stage.

    Now if the track started to trend a bit further south...


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    after seeing the mess this moring i think the winds in places were well over 80mph.
    a 8mtx4mt shed with rsj in it . not bolted to the ground was flung 8ft up and over a hedge!!!!.
    and 66mm of rain in 24 hours!!!!!!!!

    See, I told ya the Isle of Man would get some strong gusts! :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Bucketing rain here, could last a while with the set up.

    A clap of thunder too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 347 ✭✭isle of man


    See, I told ya the Isle of Man would get some strong gusts! :D

    yes you did, and thank you:D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Those beefy showers dropped 17mms in 12hrs at Shannon Airport and 13mms at Valentia today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,946 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    UPDATE _ Monday, 2:15 p.m.
    ________________________

    Kerry and Cork are getting the lion's share of convective showers this afternoon with chance of hail, thunder and heavy downpours causing spot flooding. Otherwise, the expansive "eye" of the storm is over Connacht now and drifting southeast. When the easterly flow arrives late this evening and overnight, expect to find rain spreading back into eastern counties from the Irish Sea and quite a bite to the wind where it comes directly in (30-45 mph), otherwise a moderate increase to 20-30 mph for most parts.

    Just a quick question didn't want to clog MTs thread. He says late this evening/tonight for the eastern county rain, I've to que for black ops at around midnight tonight (:D) would it be here by then would you think or will it be into the morning?

    EDIT: 700th post! Only took me 4 years lol


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    baraca wrote: »
    Just a quick question didn't want to clog MTs thread. He says late this evening/tonight for the eastern county rain, I've to que for black ops at around midnight tonight (:D) would it be here by then would you think or will it be into the morning?

    EDIT: 700th post! Only took me 4 years lol
    :D
    started raining here already,bring an umbrella,im sure it be worth it ;)


    edit:congrats on 700th post


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Tonight's ECM, if anything, has increased the forecast windspeeds for Thursday:

    134192.png

    Full gales now in coastal areas ( strong gales in the NW and north) with possible gale gusts overland during heavy showers especially. Let's hope it will deepen even further in later runs.

    Edit, just to add for those who may not be 'regulars' on boards.ie weather, please take charts this far out with a colossal pinch of salt. We are only speaking of possiblities here at the moment. We will know what the story is, for better or for worse, closer the time. :)


This discussion has been closed.
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