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08-11-2010, 16:27   #1
 
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Windy period - Wednesday/Thursday

I think the strongest winds will be for a time on Wednesday evening/night, just ahead of the surface warm front.
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08-11-2010, 16:31   #2
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The Week Ahead - Discussion - Potentially Storm Thursday

Will turn windy again in the east as the mature cyclone pushes south across the country this evening.

Showers will begin to pepper the coast with a few TS's and hail possible along with gusts to 50mph.

Wednesday a storm depression bombs south of Iceland and heads north of Ireland and into Scotland.

Strong gradient to the south of the storm will spread gales and storm force winds for the northwest and north coasts.

Exact track of low subject to uncertainty, exhibits characteristics of extreme storm system with intense gradient, so it is an extremely dangerous storm and must be monitored.

If pushed 100mph south would pose great risk to Irish mainland.

Storm early Thursday


Storm Thursday evening
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08-11-2010, 16:32   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Su Campu View Post
I think the strongest winds will be for a time on Wednesday evening/night, just ahead of the surface warm front.
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08-11-2010, 16:33   #4
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Surprised your saying Wednesday Su, the models are pointing more to Thursday/Friday. Why Wednesday evening/night??



Last edited by mickger844posts; 08-11-2010 at 16:39.
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08-11-2010, 16:34   #5
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OOOH are things looking up again lads?
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08-11-2010, 16:36   #6
 
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As Maq & Su have pointed out, could be windy later on in the week. Latest ECMWF has a tightening gradient developing of the NW coast on Thurday which could bring the risk of gales to northern areas especially:



In no way a definate, but could be one to keep an eye on.
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08-11-2010, 16:37   #7
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Originally Posted by Deep Easterly View Post
As Maq & Su have pointed out, could be windy later on in the week. Latest ECMWF has a tightening gradient developing of the NW coast on Thurday which could bring the risk of gales to northern areas especially:


In no way a definate, but could be one to keep an eye on.
Cool....and here we go again
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08-11-2010, 16:39   #8
 
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The models have been fairly consistent on this since Friday of last week.
They have had and continue to have the system tracking eastwards over Scotland. Strongest winds most likely to be seen in the northern two thirds of the country, with the SW escaping the worst of the winds. Gusts of 45-50 knots are likely with sustained winds of between 35-40 knots for a time. This is based on latest model output.

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08-11-2010, 16:44   #9
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The models have been fairly consistent on this since Friday of last week.
They have had and continue to have the system tracking eastwards over Scotland. Strongest winds most likely to be seen in the northern two thirds of the country, with the SW escaping the worst of the winds. Gusts of 45-50 knots are likely with sustained winds of between 35-40 knots for a time. This is based on latest model output.

UKMO has the low developing slower and later thus tracking a decent stretch further south, the UKMO chart is of concern and any further developments would warrant a warning. 0z models will be crucial in determining whether issuing an early weather advisory is necessary.
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08-11-2010, 16:44   #10
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Posted this is another thread but....



Strongest winds highlighted there, so if the centre of the low was further south it could be quite stormy in places.

As it stands now though, based on the 12Z GFS.....



Gales / Strong Gales possible down along the northeast, east and southeast coastal areas.

Worth watching but these lows tend to drift further to the north by the time they come around!
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08-11-2010, 16:49   #11
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mickger844posts View Post
Surprised your saying Wednesday Su, the models are pointing more to Thursday/Friday. Why Wednesday evening/night??

I was looking at the 00Z FAX charts and the tightest gradients were ahead of the system. I must admit I haven't looked at later runs.




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08-11-2010, 16:53   #12
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That's a pretty low system ... 950mbar they won't get much lower then that are they ??
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08-11-2010, 16:57   #13
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That's a pretty low system ... 950mbar they won't get much lower then that are they ??
Becky/Last night's low was only about 9 hpa higher than that. The difference is not just that this has lower pressure but it has a better core structure and tighter isobars. It's not a flabby one. (On this model anyway)

Oh, and the storm of 1839 was 918.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Big_Wind
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08-11-2010, 17:02   #14
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maquiladora View Post
Becky/Last night's low was only about 9 hpa higher than that. The difference is not just that this has lower pressure but it has a better core structure and tighter isobars. It's not a flabby one. (On this model anyway)

Oh, and the storm of 1839 was 918.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Big_Wind
I think Becky leveled off at around 956hPa in the end.
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08-11-2010, 17:04   #15
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12Z GME looks a bit more nasty.

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