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Turning colder?.....

  • 12-10-2010 7:51am
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭


    ....with frost and maybe even wintry showers aswell for a while next week. A good start for snow junkies if this is the start of a below average period for temperatures. Looks like a sharp Northerly may occur next week. ECM and GFS seem to agree somewhat and the UKMO is trending that direction.


    Rtavn1201.png


    The low pressure to the Northwest or just South of Greenland looks like a "tigger" low with cold air tucked in behind. Greenland high pressure set to make it's return.:)


    So maybe a bit of a shock to the system on the way.




    MT8_Dublin_ens.png


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Yes, there is a chance that things could turn out pretty nippy in about a week's time as a mid-upper trough sets up around the Canadian maritimes, pumping high geopotentials towards Greenland and feeding the High up there. That would mean a northerly-northwesterly flow downstream in our vicinity, but whether it will be cold enough is the big question. A small shift of the High one way or the other could eliminate the risk altogether, but one to watch. There is some nice cold already building in the Arctic just itching to head south for the winter! :D

    168_1_nh.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    I know its FI but...

    fc5rwi.png

    Look at the 528. :D

    Could be an early wintry blast alright! Still in FI though so not holding my breath...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Chilly enough this morning across some parts

    9am Met reports:
    2c at Shannon with fog
    3c at Claremorris with 'N/A' :rolleyes:
    5c at both Valentia and Ballyhaise. Fine/Fog

    http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp


    5.8c here at the moment with thick fog at 10.16am.


    Edit: 3c at both Shannon Apt and Claremorris on the 10am reports:

    http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp


    Edit Edit: 4c at Claremorris on the 11am reports, and 5c at Shannon Apt:

    http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

    Not unusual in itself but in stark contrast to other station readings. 15c at Belmullet! 13c at Mace Head. Midland stations around 10c and 12c at both Dublin Apt and Casement.

    6.4c in Tuam at the moment, with fog thickening up a little after earlier thinning.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    06Z GFS FI still showing that 2/3 days wintry blast which if it came off would probably bring us some October snow.

    Long way off though but exciting to see stuff like this on the charts already.


  • Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭skipz


    Would this October snow be a mainly higher ground situation?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    lol

    6f9h12.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    6.4c in Tuam at the moment, with fog thickening up a little after earlier thinning.
    Much the same in Galway. The fog has yet to clear and temp 6.4C.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    10102206_1206.gif
    :pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    This was the set up that brought some late October snowfall over part of Norn Iron and the north Midlands in 2008 when a low bearing down from the NW came in contact with some cold 850's over Ireland:

    anim_5eefede2-c8f4-a074-ddcb-5cd6ecbb7101.gif

    Image source: http://en.vedur.is/


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    if cold air will be streaming down from the north- northwest by that stage, perhaps a polar low could be in the offing?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Fionagus wrote: »
    Much the same in Galway. The fog has yet to clear and temp 6.4C.

    still quite foggy here also.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    And the winter of 10/11 started after a remarkably warm start to October by mid-month a Northerly blast covered the country with widespread wintry showers. Unbeknownst to the the people of Ireland & Britain was that winter 10/11 had now arrived and temperatures would not rise to double figures until early March 2011 in a winter the coldest in the region since medieval records.:D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    ramps_sidebyside2.jpg
    :D:D:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    uksnowrisk.png


    here is my ramp: rampenfest.jpg


    :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Try as I might, I found it a real stuggle to find anything remotely interesting on the 12z GFS run tonight. Still showing the cool down but that's about it. :(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    yawn.jpg
    our time will come Deep:)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    our time will come Deep:)

    I am sure it will at some stage Wolf. It would seem though that October 2010 is fast going down the pan with regards anything interesting weatherwise. There seems to be no end to these inflated highs hovering in and around Ireland this year and that trend does not look like breaking for another while yet.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Here's the multimodel consensus. No snow.

    tmpmean850_240.png

    hgtmean500_240.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    ah stop being a spoil sport su campu:p there is no place for realism in this thread:o


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Here's the multimodel consensus. No snow.

    No anything as far as I can see.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    No anything as far as I can see.

    well the current pattern may not last beyond October if Joe Bastardi's latest video is anything to go by. His video seems to indicate it's going to be a normal winter for us. the cfs charts he showed, suggest the winter months will have temperatures around average or slightly above. of course this doesn't mean we'll have wind storms, but it would surely rule out the Winter months being largely influenced by Polar Continental air masses


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    well the current pattern may not last beyond October if Joe Bastardi's latest video is anything to go by. His video seems to indicate it's going to be a normal winter for us. the cfs charts he showed, suggest the winter months will have temperatures around average or slightly above. of course this doesn't mean we'll have wind storms, but it would surely rule out the Winter months being largely influenced by Polar Continental air masses

    One positive aspect about an 'normal' winter in Ireland is that it can throw anything at us. It is normal to get at least 2 or 3 good windstorms during the winter season. Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out either in a normal Irish winter, nor can even a brief polar continental surge or 2 - or an Arctic one. In fact, I would much prefer a normal Irish winter than to what we experienced in the last one which was notably cold, but also remarkably hollow as well.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    One positive aspect about an 'normal' winter in Ireland is that it can throw anything at us. It is normal to get at least 2 or 3 good windstorms during the winter season. Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out either in a normal Irish winter, nor can even a brief polar continental surge or 2 - or an Arctic one. In fact, I would much prefer a normal Irish winter than to what we experienced in the last one which was notably cold, but also remarkably hollow as well.

    oh yeah we could still get snowy and cold periods, but his latest video seems to rule out any sort of sustained cold like we had last winter. it's interesting, considering he is known as a cold ramper, that he is going against the forecasts of others who are of the view it will be a colder than average winter.
    personally i would like a polar low - or six!, and some wind storms this winter


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    0Z GFS reintroduces a risk of wintry weather for some around the 21st/22nd.

    Still over a week away though so there will be changes....

    Edit : I meant 0Z of course :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    This is the 850hPa temperature difference forecast between now and 180hrs......quite a dip in the space of 8 days eh!

    130817.PNG


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,278 ✭✭✭arctictree


    06Z GFS reintroduces a risk of wintry weather for some around the 21st/22nd.

    Still over a week away though so there will be changes....

    We've had snow before on the 21st Oct, so could happen again. Lets see what happens when we get closer to the reliable timeframe.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    dont want snow yet. hv 2 do marathon on 25th but looks like 8c at best next week with precipitation:(


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    UK Outlook for Wednesday 27 Oct 2010 to Wednesday 10 Nov 2010:
    Both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be well below average for the time of year, with overnight frost likely.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    06Z GFS has the cold upper temps arriving earlier than on the 0Z run.

    -5 uppers coming down over us this day next week.

    So based on the 06Z GFS, I'd say a risk of sleet/snow showers in parts from Wednesday through to Friday.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    6.9c here in foggy aul shamtown, highest temp of the day so far.


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