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Why do people think austerity measures will work?

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  • 25-08-2010 10:55pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,251 ✭✭✭


    http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,712511,00.html

    It seems pretty clear it's not working for the Greeks.

    I think people can't get past the "But we don't have any money!" part. The people don't have money either...

    The fact is that if you take money out of the economy, it will suffer.

    It's not an easy situation to be in, but I think most people are just being reactionary, especially with regards welfare.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 725 ✭✭✭rightwingdub


    Sandvich wrote: »
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,712511,00.html

    It seems pretty clear it's not working for the Greeks.

    I think people can't get past the "But we don't have any money!" part. The people don't have money either...

    The fact is that if you take money out of the economy, it will suffer.

    It's not an easy situation to be in, but I think most people are just being reactionary, especially with regards welfare.

    Fact is that the country is borrowing €60 million per day this year to keep the country afloat, if the government isn't seen to be cutting public spenind then the markets stop loaning to Ireland meaning that an EU or an IMF takeover is liable to happen.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,251 ✭✭✭Sandvich


    But our economy is in the toilet, so you can't take money out of that either. Or else Ireland may not be able to sustain itsself in the long run. I don't understand how people who are supposed to be competent don't get this, of course on this forum it's a lot to do with bias towards a particular ideology than giving two ****s about the best solution.

    Again I think in most cases the call for austerity is intellectually void and based on a reactionary position. It'd make sense if our economy was doing well, yet our government was still managing poorly. But our overall economy is doing even worse than our government. Personal debt is at a very high level and the private sector has seen much better days.


  • Registered Users Posts: 26,458 ✭✭✭✭gandalf


    So whats your solution then?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 585 ✭✭✭MrDarcy


    I don't know if you were just watching the documentary on TV3 which outlined what could only be called an absolutely horrendous and stomach turning waste of taxpayers money.

    If austerity = that wasteful spending being eliminated to any degree, then I think that is a very good thing.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,251 ✭✭✭Sandvich


    gandalf wrote: »
    So whats your solution then?

    I don't have one. I have a number of ideas that will help, but this is really something for some expert economist.

    And of course that doesn't mean we should go for something that probably won't work...
    I don't know if you were just watching the documentary on TV3 which outlined what could only be called an absolutely horrendous and stomach turning waste of taxpayers money.

    If austerity = that wasteful spending being eliminated to any degree, then I think that is a very good thing.

    No, Austerity would be cutting back on services, welfare etc. rather than just getting rid of wasteful spending. After all, reorganisation takes EFFORT, cutting stuff is easier and gets a cheer from the economic right.

    It depends what you consider a waste of taxpayer's money, though. Some would consider disability allowance one, and I would consider them sociopaths.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 26,458 ✭✭✭✭gandalf


    Ok so you have no solutions.

    We are spending more money than we can afford as a state. Unfortunately that means cut backs and more tax.

    If we had a Government with any vision and backbone they would be re-organising our whole public service and cutting out the waste, ensuring that the resources are there to tackle our serious welfare fraud problems. If they did this then those who are in real need like those on disability allowances would not be effected as they are going to be by wholesale cutbacks.

    Unfortunately we are blessed with idiots who want to Carbon tax us back to the Stone ages and be allowed claim expenses from non existant companies.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    sigh

    as if there is a choice


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,849 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    OP , you are basically saying that a recession is unacceptable because its unacceptable, or that after being brought up on the strap line "whats the government going to do about it ?" you believe that any problem can be solved by some clever trickery.
    no country is entitled to a particular standard of living, if the collective blow it, they blow it. Even the dumbest hedge fund will only lend the country money if they think they are going to be repaid and even the ECB has limits on how much money they can lend.
    The government have taken the wrong course but it has confused people into thinking that things have stabalised , in reality they havent.

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,670 ✭✭✭GSF


    Right now there are only 2 options to get back to some sort of sustainable path.

    Option 2 - exit the euro and devalue the punt- is even less palatable than option number 1.

    So choose the lesser of 2 evils then.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 959 ✭✭✭changes


    I find it hard to take austerity measures from brian cowan now when he was throwing money about him like confetti during his reign as finance minister. A new government would be a different story.

    Particularly when he is still one of the highest paid leaders in the western world.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,857 ✭✭✭Spudmonkey


    If the Croke park agreement has been passed and the aim of this was the preservation of wages and pensions in exchange for changes in work practices and the more efficient provision of services, what exactly has been done in the meantime?

    What is reckoned to happen at the next budget if these savings haven't been made?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,857 ✭✭✭Spudmonkey


    Sandvich wrote: »
    No, Austerity would be cutting back on services, welfare etc. rather than just getting rid of wasteful spending.

    Surely austerity is just reducing spending, regardless of how its done? Why does it have to be cutting back on services rather than wasteful spending?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 595 ✭✭✭George Orwell 1982


    We have to reduce the deficit because we can't keep borrowing indefinitely.

    However cutting spending in a recession further cripples the domestic economy, leads to falling tax receipts etc. So we are damned if we do and damned if we don't

    What has really crippled us is the cost of the bank bailout and nama.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 836 ✭✭✭rumour


    Sandvich wrote: »
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,712511,00.html

    It seems pretty clear it's not working for the Greeks.

    I think people can't get past the "But we don't have any money!" part. The people don't have money either...

    The fact is that if you take money out of the economy, it will suffer.

    It's not an easy situation to be in, but I think most people are just being reactionary, especially with regards welfare.

    It's simple spin. We are in the process of becoming poorer, better get used to it. Saying we are poor doesn't get votes and is highly unpopular, so a little spin helps.
    This also applies to the UK USA and most of Europe, no matter how much we print money and borrow and come up with clever financial products and spin.

    Reason this (its very simplistic but relevant nonetheless), a labourer here is approx €8 and hour. The same labourer is approx 65c in China. How much do we have to devalue the dollar and the Euro to level the playing field?

    Devaluing these of course means your purchasing power will drop effectively making you poorer.

    Another example much of the worlds population (+80%) spends approx 45-50% of their individual income on food, in the western world it is in the order of 10-12%.

    There is a correction on the way. The Chinese, Indians Russians, Brazils all want what we have is that possible? What do you think they talk about at all the G8 now G20 summits.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 39,022 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,236 ✭✭✭Fat_Fingers


    rumour wrote: »
    Reason this (its very simplistic but relevant nonetheless), a labourer here is approx €8 and hour. The same labourer is approx 65c in China.

    Probably even less than 65c , person who is familiar and travels a lot to Chine told me about €106 per month is considered very decent salary. Farmers would earn 8 times less than.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 695 ✭✭✭RealityCheck


    Sandvich wrote: »
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,712511,00.html

    It seems pretty clear it's not working for the Greeks.

    I think people can't get past the "But we don't have any money!" part. The people don't have money either...

    The fact is that if you take money out of the economy, it will suffer.

    It's not an easy situation to be in, but I think most people are just being reactionary, especially with regards welfare.


    All the money we are borrowing is not our money, it is other peoples money. We have no choice but to be reactionary because that is what the markets demand. We are slaves to the market until such point as we reduce borrowing or default and live within our means. As in spending as much as we take in.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,834 ✭✭✭Welease


    The problem and solution is not so binary as cuts are good, or cuts hurt the economy..

    We will need to continue to borrow in the short/medium term..

    BUT, we have a choice where we choose to spend the money we borrow.. We can choose to use it to create new employment ( grow revenue and lessen the need to continue borrowing), or we can continue to borrow to preserve non productive employment (CP agreement), Welfare etc..

    As always, the balance will be somewhere in the middle..


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 585 ✭✭✭MrDarcy


    Welease wrote: »
    The problem and solution is not so binary as cuts are good, or cuts hurt the economy..

    We will need to continue to borrow in the short/medium term..

    BUT, we have a choice where we choose to spend the money we borrow.. We can choose to use it to create new employment ( grow revenue and lessen the need to continue borrowing), or we can continue to borrow to preserve non productive employment (CP agreement), Welfare etc..

    As always, the balance will be somewhere in the middle..

    I think the key thing here in terms of what drives our attitude should be the concept of value. None of us would have an issue spending tens of millions a year vaccinating schoolkids against a cancer virus that could otherwise appear as a serious health issue later on in life and cause premature death and then the much higher costs associated with treating the illness in later life reactively through radiotherapy, surgery, etc, instead of pre-emptively via a vaccine.

    So it's fair to say that nobody has an issue with high amounts of money being spent in the right way, but we all rightly have a huge issue with Ivor Callely and others abusing the expenses system for personal gain.

    Every Euro that gets spent now, particularly when it comes to public sector wages, the question needs to be, "are we seeing value for money here for the taxpayer???" If the answer is yet, we pay, if the answer is no, we don't pay...


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,856 ✭✭✭Valmont


    This post has been deleted.
    I'm sick of hearing that too. Here is Mercer's 2010 cost-of-living survey. With this info, there are literally no more rocks to hide under for those defending welfare payments through the guise of "fairness". Welfare is far too high- accept it!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,251 ✭✭✭Sandvich


    Spudmonkey wrote: »
    Surely austerity is just reducing spending, regardless of how its done? Why does it have to be cutting back on services rather than wasteful spending?

    That's the definition of austerity, it has to be serious cutbacks.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,251 ✭✭✭Sandvich


    We have to reduce the deficit because we can't keep borrowing indefinitely.

    However cutting spending in a recession further cripples the domestic economy, leads to falling tax receipts etc. So we are damned if we do and damned if we don't

    What has really crippled us is the cost of the bank bailout and nama.

    Good point.

    As much as people moan about welfare, the Anglo-Irish bailout costs about as much as our welfare bill. I realise that the economic right on this forum aren't fond of that either, but they don't complain about it a fraction as much.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,251 ✭✭✭Sandvich


    This post has been deleted.

    Haven't I had the same discussion with you at least once before?

    Why should British welfare be held up as an example, exactly? Just because it is possible to give out that amount of money does not mean we should. There are factors to consider such as higher crime rate, cost of transport involved in job searching, and currently, taking money out of the economy.

    I don't find essentials cost much less, and rent is still extremely high.

    I don't agree that the majority of people can't survive on €196 a week. But that's not the discussion. The discussion is, are welfare payments too high? Whether people should be only offered the absolute bare bones is another discussion. And currently, if people don't have any money, areas of widespread unemployment(such as in Limerick now Dell has ****ed off) will see an even larger drop in local business.

    You're also ignoring that the British system works differently to the Irish system - for example in the UK they practically give you a council house, whereas over here you have to pay €24 minimum contribution. You're also ignoring that jobseekers allowance is not the only welfare payment - there are many people on disability.

    It might not be significant - but the fact that you ignore the facts like this shows how dishonest and divorced from reality your arguments are.

    I believe, fundamentally, this line of argument is based on a reactionary attitude towards perceived entitlement rather than a shred of rational thought. Just before the Recession hit when we had similar welfare payments to now - our unemployment was not notably different to the UK.

    Were this a different situation - where the economy was strong, but unemployment was rising - would I agree it needs to be cut? To an extent, I probably would yes.

    I do find it interesting though that a Libertarian effectively wants to take money off private individuals to help the state. Whether or not they're "entitled" to it is an issue - however so is whether or not you're entitled to the legal protection that allows you to amass silly amounts of wealth property, is also an issue.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,718 ✭✭✭SkepticOne


    Sandvich wrote: »
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,712511,00.html

    It seems pretty clear it's not working for the Greeks.

    I think people can't get past the "But we don't have any money!" part. The people don't have money either...

    The fact is that if you take money out of the economy, it will suffer.

    It's not an easy situation to be in, but I think most people are just being reactionary, especially with regards welfare.
    The reason people can't get beyond the "But we don't have any money!" part is because this is the overriding issue. There really isn't any money and therefore options to do other things simply aren't there. The only thing that can be done is cutting back on expenditure with the aim of putting off the need for an IMF/EU bailout or default for as long as possible.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,251 ✭✭✭Sandvich


    Valmont wrote: »
    I'm sick of hearing that too. Here is Mercer's 2010 cost-of-living survey. With this info, there are literally no more rocks to hide under for those defending welfare payments through the guise of "fairness". Welfare is far too high- accept it!

    That's a pretty unfair comparison. The cost of living is down largely to the rent. London is a much larger city compared to Dublin - of course it's likely to be more expensive.

    It would be fairer to compare an sized average city and ignore rent since again, you can get a council house provided for you when unemployed much more easily than you can find a decent place with rent allowance over here.

    You're also working backwards from assuming that the UK has a sufficient welfare, which may not be the case.
    The reason people can't get beyond the "But we don't have any money!" part is because this is the overriding issue. There really isn't any money and therefore options to do other things simply aren't there. The only thing that can be done is cutting back on expenditure with the aim of putting off the need for an IMF/EU bailout or default for as long as possible.

    But people don't have any money either. There's no NAMA for personal debt. This seems to escape people.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 39,022 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,279 ✭✭✭regi


    Sandvich wrote: »
    for example in the UK they practically give you a council house, whereas over here you have to pay €24 minimum contribution.

    Oh lord, I do try to do stay out of these slogfests, but I'm boggling at this one. Paying €24 for a house isn't 'practically giving you' one?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,251 ✭✭✭Sandvich


    This post has been deleted.

    That's not the point.

    Again, it's the same shoddy logic that says we don't need healthcare, people are responsible for their own health.

    But people still die, and people still commit crime. The blame, the "He started it!!!" is not the problem here. If more crimes happen with less money, it's something to look at and consider.

    The impracticality of the conservative model of "Personal Responsibility" is evident here.
    If you want to reduce the cost of transport involved in job searching, then perhaps you should ask your beloved state to eliminate VRT, excise and VAT on petrol, carbon tax, road tax, and the many other factors that keep the cost of motoring in this country crippling high. Get rid of the state monopolies over transportation services while you're at it, and prices will fall.

    Or we could, you know, not become a Libertarian state.
    Not borrowing money at sky-high interest rates to pay sky-high social welfare rates is not "taking money out of the economy." It's allowing the economy to return to its natural post-boom level—and freeing our children and grandchildren from inheriting an absolutely enormous national debt.

    Or, they could have used that money for welfare and not anglo-irish. I'm sure you're not happy with that either, but it doesn't seem to bother you as much since it doesn't give you an opportunity to be a dick to poor people.
    Rent would be quite a bit lower if the state weren't funding half of all private tenancies.

    Rent would also be lower if landlords and estate agents weren't largely cowboy businessmen.
    Dell "****ed off" because Ireland has become uncompetitive due to state meddling with wages, energy costs, and many of the other costs of doing business. Pumping borrowing billions into a moribund economy is not the answer; we have to becoming competitive again, and attract inward investment.

    Or; we could have put money into developing our own industry so it wouldn't be as much of an issue when they do. Sweden has no trouble being a welfare state largely because it has it's own successful multinationals.
    No, sorry -- my analysis is based on rational economic argument. No matter how much of a song and dance you make about fairness and equality, you have no answer to the basic economic fact that we have no choice about whether to cut the deficit. Austerity is not one among many other options. It is the only option.

    And can you prove this here and now? I doubt it.

    Even if it is, the only reason we got in that situation is due to factors other than welfare - such as the bailing out of AI.
    And how do you explain that claim? I want the state to stop borrowing now so that private individuals do not face a struggling economy and high taxes for generations to come.

    If you cut welfare severely, private individuals who are still suffering debt will not be able to manage. If everyone starts selling their **** to pay for debt - who's going to buy it? Likely it will end up in the hands of those who can actually afford to pay - thus consolidating future wealth and resources in the hands of people who are already well off.

    It's a pawn shop scenario.
    Of course I'm entitled to legal protection for my wealth and property. That's a basic cornerstone of a liberal society. It's why I personally choose not to live in a socialist cesspit. If Ireland becomes a socialist cesspit, I'll be on the first plane out, believe me.

    I'm sorry, but your immature phrasing and weak reasoning is only proving my point.

    "Of course" you're entitled to protection for "your own" wealth.

    But, by the same extent, many who share the same view as you would say that people aren't entitled to healthcare and various benefits.

    There are no obvious facts here, no "common sense". Everything has to be defended from the ground up. Your refusal to realise this is exactly why I say your argument is, mostly, devoid of intellectual thought. Because it's not based on what's actually best for everyone, it's based on avoiding a "socialist cesspit", despite countries that are more true social democracies fairing better than Ireland at the moment.

    It is only obvious to you that your property should be protected, but not the welfare of the poor.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,251 ✭✭✭Sandvich


    regi wrote: »
    Oh lord, I do try to do stay out of these slogfests, but I'm boggling at this one. Paying €24 for a house isn't 'practically giving you' one?

    It's €24 more than what you'd pay, which is a large chunk of €196 a week. You think that's not significant? Also you're not getting a "house" for that.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 39,022 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


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