Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on [email protected] for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact [email protected]

Remaining very cold - Bitterly cold Easterly winds later - Snow at times

  • 26-02-2010 10:49pm
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    A thread for the next 7 days. Remaining rain and sleet will die out in the North on Saturday to leave a cloudy but mostly dry day there with a thaw setting in. Cloud is likely to remain in those areas but sunnier skies elsewhere. For the next 7 days in general it will remain cold and very cold at night with frost and Ice. But it will be becoming drier up to midweek next week when a little rain or snow is expected. Daytime temperatures typically around 3 - 6C, a little higher on South coasts and winds variable but mostly light so not feeling too bad. Later an Easterly will develope as an area of High Pressure builds to the North around day 5 or 6 and it is likely to get exceptionally cold once again though the longevity and severity of this particular spell won't be determined for a couple of days suffice to say Eastern and Southern areas most at rsk of significant snowfall. Also in transition to the Easterly a more significant spell of snow may occur next week preceded by rain but this is uncertain at this stage. So remaining very cold and wintry for the forseeable future.


«13

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    cheers DM2,easterlys would make things interesting again,anyting but the boring s**t at mo,if it were the summer would we want the easterlys as well? i presume that would drag warm air to us


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Im sorry but i can't resist posting this,because its holding a trend,long may it last.MASSIVE HEALTH WARNING as its fantasy island but got to keep the prospects going.

    prectypeuktopo.png




    That high pressure forecast next week could bring savage cold dry air and just maybe we'll have a low to our south banging into it,and hey presto snowstorm.
    All sounds very wonderful in my La La land head but you never know.
    Winters far from over.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    That chart just means another non snow event, just like last night!

    Another mild morning here, 3.2c.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,228 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    redsunset wrote: »
    Im sorry but i can't resist posting this,because its holding a trend,long may it last.MASSIVE HEALTH WARNING as its fantasy island but got to keep the prospects going.

    prectypeuktopo.png




    That high pressure forecast next week could bring savage cold dry air and just maybe we'll have a low to our south banging into it,and hey presto snowstorm.
    All sounds very wonderful in my La La land head but you never know.
    Winters far from over.

    I think I just wet myself. That's weather porn right there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,315 ✭✭✭sunbabe08


    :eek::mad: every where in ireland except cork yet again is gonna get snow? not fair


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Snowaddict


    The latest available overnight Guidance sees a continuation in a trend towards the development of an Easterly flow. Notably, present indications would suggest that the main area of High Pressure will build quite a distance further north than was the case with the Easterly flow earlier in February. Of course this is subject to change, however that's what the latest indications suggest.

    The latest 6/10 & 10/14 Day CPC 500mb Height anomoly charts indicate the pattern quite well, with a mean variable Easterly flow, generally varying between Northeast & East. Suggestions have been there for more than 5 days now of a transition to this pattern, but exact details will be uncertain for some time yet.

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

    As DM2 has mentioned, there is a threat of wintry precipitation towards midweek or slightly later as a residual disturbance/energy in the flow backs Southeastwards, as HP builds to the North. This risk is primarily indicated on the overnight UKMO Guidance:

    UW144-21.GIF?27-06

    The latest 00Z GEFS Mean Guidance has a mean Easterly flow developing at T+120:

    gens-21-1-120.png?0

    ECMWF remains relatively constant on the pattern indicated last night, with much colder conditions spreading across the country from the Northeast towards T+120 (Day 5). Notably, there has been a shift on the last two ECMWF evolutions away from a dry stable Easterly flow to a more unstable Easterly/Northeasterly flow, with an intensification of the cold.

    The latest ECMWF Ensembles for De Bilt, which are important in an Easterly flow, show a significant cooling of conditions across the near continent. Indeed, indications suggest exceptional anomalous cold for the first 10 Days of March - considering increasing solar influences etc. There is also an increasing signal for precipitation (sleet & snowfall) in that region as the flow back Northeasterly, trending Easterly.

    http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

    GEM & GME also indicate a relatively potent & prolonged Easterly flow on the 00Z Guidance.

    Summary

    In summary then, a pattern change is occuring as we head into March. There is an increasing signal for high pressure to develop North of the UK & Ireland in the coming 5 days approximately. While it may become somewhat less cold during the transition phase, present indications suggest mean troughing over Iberia & secondary cold troughing over the near continent. As a result, indications suggest a renewed cold phase is possible as we head into March, which would be quite remarkable indeed. We are some distance away yet from being certain, but the latest trends do favour a well below average & and quite possibly wintry pattern as we head into the first third of March.

    However, with any Easterly flow, cross model continuity is needed at T+96 in order to have high confidence in the outcome.

    SA :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,009 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    SA, just want to thank you for your easy to read, balanced posts (and easy to understand for a noob !!)

    I have leared a lot from them, keep em coming ! :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 281 ✭✭sarsfield06


    On the top of kippure currently snowing lightly not much wind


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,313 ✭✭✭snowstreams


    I must go up kippure soon for a bit of snowboarding. Hopefully the snow is holding up well up there? And maybe getting a good top up next thursday!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    f129.gif



    BANK!!!!!!

    Come on charts for once do what your told and give us a last hurrah to finally put to bed if this winter has been a classic or not.


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Spanish HIRLAM 850's charts show how this Atlantic ridge is forecast to ridge rapidly towards Ireland preventing any significant mildness from moving in our direction:

    2/03/2010 7am:

    106369.gif


    2/03/2010 1pm:

    106370.gif


    2/03/2010 7pm:

    106371.gif

    It is crucial that this ridge remains as strong as is forecast for us to be in with a chance of another blast from the north or east. There is every chance that it may just collapse as well before it has a chance ridge in the right places.

    Worth keeping an eye on either way.


  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Snowaddict


    I agree Deep Easterly & I also think another crucial aspect to the evolution will be the residual trough development, as that, almost exclusively will determine as to whether any flow would be cold but dry or cold and wintry.

    For example, the GFS 12Z Evolution moves this residual energy further north and it then fills, therefore even though 850mb temperatures of -11 spread across the country from the East/Northeast, the time period for snowfall potential is greatly reduced compared with the 06Z evolution because mean troughing is much further to the south.

    It is paramount that we see the troughing as close to the south of the UK in particular as is possible, to support and undercut and Easterly flow.

    In that regard, UKMO 12Z Operational is quite impressive at both T+120 & T+144 and follows the main evolution, similar to that of the 00Z ECMWF Operational, with a Northward, then Southward progression of the main area of residual energy. With pressure around 1000mb, then there would ample opporunity for wintry developments in a very strong Easterly/Northeasterly airflow.

    It's a fine balance, between having the centre of the HP far north enough but not too far, the main area of HP being elongated but not too elongated, along with mean troughing close enough from the South to support and undercut the high, but not too close that it would lead to a mixing of the airflow.

    UW144-21.GIF?27-17

    Not asking for much is it :pac:

    SA :)




  • Some of this stuff being progged now is quite the snowfest for lots of places not exclusively the East but especially there.
    There seems to be increasing cross model agreement.

    I'm warey of that...these days,they can become fickle just like that.


    It's a pity,it didn't happen a few weeks ago but at any rate some of those synoptics have the potential to give us a lot of snow cover and freezing temps.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    ECMWF still keen on building the Atlantic ridge northwards at 120hrs:

    106378.png

    An encouraging trend, but we are getting into the territory where sudden shortwaves may appear in later runs which may dampen the effects of this potential build to the north, but so far, so good.

    Such a set up would not really benefit the west regarding snow, unless there are active troughs contained within the flow, but with a good, stiff breeze, at least it will have super drying effects. Despite very little rain here over the last few months, everything is still quite damp, so this sort of set up will be welcome by me at least. :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Nothing to stop that high building DE,for it shall rise to conquer all.

    Bye bye atlantic for another while yet:D.

    After that it'll be all about timing and as SA brilliantly illustrates.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    redsunset wrote: »
    Nothing to stop that high building DE,for it shall rise to conquer all.

    Bye bye atlantic for another while yet:D.

    I am presenting worse case scenario here man, humour me!! :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    I am presenting worse case scenario here man, humour me!! :D


    I know you are and i am humouring you and everyone,no negativity allowed:D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Is winter 2010/2011 set to be another La Nina based one?

    Latest ECMWF ENSO forecast:

    nino_plumes_public_s3%213%21201002%21chart.gif

    nino_plumes_public_s3%213.4%21201002%21chart.gif

    nino_plumes_public_s3%214%21201002%21chart.gif

    Source: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/

    Maybe not, but certainly a sharp trend downwards towards the middle of this year. If it was to continue to dip towards the winter months, who knows. Based on the last couple of La Nina based winters in Ireland, I'd not be getting my hopes up of an interesting winter ahead.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    18z really shows the potential of what is ahead of us later next week with gale force Easterly winds and blizzards in the South of the country.

    Rtavn1382.png


    Just to note - those who long for summer - those high temperatures as always at this time of year have recently become visible over Northern Africa on the European charts. Won't be long before the heat starts making inroads to the Continent. Will be a long time yet before it gets here!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    yes some dream charts threw in there,

    gfs-0-120.png?18


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    I wonder if we could we be looking at the forth consecutive below average month in a row.. :o


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    There is every possibility that the singular most severe cold snap of this Winter is about to occur. Very classic 1947/63 ish. A similar pattern. I fully expect March to be below average. We are constantly on the wrong side of the polar fronts. That means a wet and windy Spain and Portugal so hope no one has booked holidays! :P


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    9 years ago today

    2001 - Blizzard conditions bring parts of Leinster to a standstill; all flights are cancelled at Dublin Airport and many roads are left impassable after heavy falls of snow


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    9 years ago today

    2001 - Blizzard conditions bring parts of Leinster to a standstill; all flights are cancelled at Dublin Airport and many roads are left impassable after heavy falls of snow


    Rrea00120010227.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    useless high sinks in 0z gfs


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    its -.5c here and raining! lethal roads i fear!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven


    Dusting of snow on the ground here, woke up to a moderate snow shower on top of the frost , unexpected to say the least :) Winter just refuses to let go yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Trogdor


    Dusting of snow on the ground here, woke up to a moderate snow shower on top of the frost , unexpected to say the least :) Winter just refuses to let go yet.

    There was a hail shower here sometime in the early hours as well although i have no idea where it came from:p


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 626 ✭✭✭Not


    Dusting of snow on the ground here, woke up to a moderate snow shower on top of the frost , unexpected to say the least :) Winter just refuses to let go yet.

    The Sky News weather map yesterday evening seemed to be indicating widespread snow over Ireland for a time for last night. I thought I was seeing things ! Or maybe it was fog they were indicating... When they ran through the chronological sequence I couldn't help notice Ireland going almost completely white for a few moments.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 1,523 ✭✭✭jambofc


    -0.4/-1.7
    frost here and was foggy earlier,coldest in a few days.


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement