News from Navan

DWCommuter · 07-01-2008 11:08pm #1

IE made a presentation to Meath CC today in relation to the routes and costings for the rail line from Pace to Navan. The same presentation is being made to the DOT next week. Tom Finn of IE is running the show.

Some of the route options examined were bonkers, but the preferred route (option 3) is more or less the original alignment with the necessary deviations. Navan station is to be sited at the site of Navan junction. (The original site on the former railway.) Journey time would be one hour and IE claim that this would not be competitive with road times after under construction projects are completed.

Not too bad so far is it?

But Tom Finn stated that the costings in T21 for the project were not from IE and perhaps they came from the strategic rail review of 2003. Either way he wasn't sure where the figure was plucked from, but he was adamant that it was short by 200 million! Do the maths folks. Makes the Navan line come in at circa 500 million!!!

There's more!

The project would not recoup its build costs. It would cover its running costs, but not the cost of depreciation. Therefore the document reaches the conclusion that the project is not financially viable and IE recommend it be abandoned. Oh and that sewer main....well eh yep, it would have to be moved if the line were built. (christ I feel like a transport god, but Im not. Im just an ordinary joe with an interest. But even I could see this deck was never up for a deal.)

Of course this doesn't mean that the line won't be built, but I feel its a very convenient method of placing it on the back burner. Yet again my "banjo bet" looks safe and a further prediction from Dero's crystal ball.......if the dept of finance don't fancy the monopoly money that the direct route will cost, then the Drogheda route looks like a sleeping possibility. My former colleagues and I proposed this 2 and a half years ago. It can be done.

Todays report is almost identical to a previous report done by IE and MCC. (circa 1999) That too concluded running as far as Navan wasn't viable. In fact its recommendation was to run as far as Pace and build a huge P+R for Navan commuters. The more eagle eyed amongst you will remember a debate between Barry Kenny and I on the last word in mid 2005, where he tried to justify the Pace P+R as a suitable facility for Navan commuters. Thats what it was always meant to be. Of course in November 2005 T21 pulled a rabbit out of the hat by including Navan in the list. Apparently the money was "ringfenced". But according to Tom Finn today that "ringfenced" money is a tad short. (If its even there at all)

I don't like saying these things and I know I sound like the Eamonn Dunphy of transport, but I still don't believe that Navan or the Interconnector will be built. Alternatively, it could be Navan or the Interconnector. Take your pick. Maybe IE are writing off Navan in order to protect the interconnector. But its sad that we have to think like this.

Thats all from the funny farm and ...oh...yeah...I was right. (But Im not enjoying it.)

paulm17781 · 08-01-2008 12:01am

There is also the taking of Broadstone for "Navan" trains.

500M is surely taking the piss. What is WRC costing again?

I sometimes wonder if we'll ever get anything right in this country. :mad:

DWCommuter · 08-01-2008 12:16am

paulm17781 wrote: »

There is also the taking of Broadstone for "Navan" trains.

500M is surely taking the piss. What is WRC costing again?

I sometimes wonder if we'll ever get anything right in this country. :mad:

Good man Paul. Broadstone.

They had diggers on it the last few months clearing it out. John Lynch (formely very quite, but now the new "media" man for IE) talked about it for Navan trains. Hmm....one wonders if one arm in IE knows what the other is doing. Actually they don't. Its all bollix. You'd get more sense from a plastic bag.

Luas to liffey junction may now be back on the cards or we could just turn it into a green walkway called the John Gormless park. A few ducks and shrubs. You know yourself.

Anyway, it looks like Navan is sinking fast and 500million wouldn't be wide of the mark in cost terms. There was a lot of CPO'ing and associated works needed. IE want Broadstone alright...for Pace/Dunboyne trains. Thats as far as the line was ever going to go.

A sad day. But tomorrow, our wonderful Government could bring joy and bliss to our Meath brothers with ****e talk and back passage covering tales of misconception and Government policy. Ive seen lights on very late on Kildare street. The ESB depend on them.

paulm17781 · 08-01-2008 10:28am

If our government had any balls they'd just ask the RPA to look at doing a competitive quote.

IE seem to want to ensure that the RPA can't build but have no intention of building themselves. Keep the monopoly going and cars on the road. :rolleyes:

Navan Junction · 08-01-2008 11:00am

In fairness, IÉ just look bemused at these presentations.

If they get money they'd spend it, you get the impression.

That doesn't mean that there is a justification for them ignoring or refusing to things that don't require signifucant or any funding.

The root problem is that even the simple act of catching a bus is down to politics

Partizan · 08-01-2008 4:04pm

Thats the first of the T21 rail projects to be shelved.

I'd bet my back garden that the Dublin Metro and Midleton will be next in line for the chop.

A litany of broken promises and yet the same shower get in each and every time.

DWCommuter · 08-01-2008 5:25pm

Metro may be a candidate, but Midleton is already underway.

Chris_533976 · 08-01-2008 5:39pm

Passed down part of the Midleton line yesterday, there was a surprising lack of work going on

OTK · 08-01-2008 7:15pm

Navan Junction wrote: »

In fairness, IÉ just look bemused at these presentations.

If they get money they'd spend it, you get the impression.

The Irish Times article on this topic today puts the cost at €578m and states that IE has warned Meath CC that the line is not viable.

I don't remember IE ever public stating opposition to the WRC whose business case was presumably weaker than Navan. When pressed by the oireachtas joint transport committee on whether the WRC was viable, IE just said

Dick Fearn (Irish Rail) wrote:

If we were asked what we mean by viable, we would say that anything is viable if it gets a subsidy.

A much more cautious appproach than Navan.

The viability of Navan rail is reduced by the M3 project. Maybe we should build a new motorway or a rail track but not both.

DWCommuter · 08-01-2008 7:27pm

Chris_533976 wrote: »

Passed down part of the Midleton line yesterday, there was a surprising lack of work going on

Oh theyre in the bushes somewhere. Main body of work is due to kick off shortly, but contractors have been on site. Its safe, unlike Navan.

Navan Junction · 08-01-2008 7:29pm

Maybe, or maybe there's more to it than that.

The M3 isn't a surprise - it's been on the plans and was always going to go ahead.

Point of the matter is the line has as much to do with traffic in Dublin as in Meath, and the M3 won't sort that out.

It has always been a case of both road and rail.

Might be worth mentioning amidst the hysteria that this isn't the end of the process by any means - did anyone seriously believe that there wouldn't be a negative report produced at some point?

The only surprise is that it isn't a leaked secret report

Navan Junction · 08-01-2008 7:30pm

DWCommuter wrote: »

Oh theyre in the bushes somewhere. Main body of work is due to kick off shortly, but contractors have been on site. Its safe, unlike Navan.

Navan hasn't been safe since the foundation of the state, and thats even when it had a railway

Point is it now has a critical population mass

SimonMaher · 08-01-2008 7:39pm

Just watched SixOne news and the Minister (and local TD), Noel Dempsey says the Navan project is definitely going ahead and even that it will now happen before the original target date of 2015!

Simon

fishfoodie · 08-01-2008 7:45pm

Simon Maher wrote: »

Just watched SixOne news and the Minister (and local TD), Noel Dempsey says the Navan project is definitely going ahead and even that it will now happen before the original target date of 2015!

Simon

If that prat told me that the sun was going to come up tomorrow, I'd start buying candles by the box. Everything project he touches turns to $hit !

Navan Junction · 08-01-2008 7:55pm

Simon Maher wrote: »

Just watched SixOne news and the Minister (and local TD), Noel Dempsey says the Navan project is definitely going ahead and even that it will now happen before the original target date of 2015!

Simon

Yes, the report said 2013. Then went on to say it wasn't viable. It's about putting the pressure on the minister for transport for more money

lostexpectation · 08-01-2008 8:08pm

I don't understnad how it can't be economically feasible. if you can't fund a train to navan/meath, where can you?

Are they taking just the train service it self and build and run costs or are they considering every factor including the benefit to the economy of a less clogged roads to dublin and spreading the commuter load?

Slice · 08-01-2008 8:22pm

Has anyone considered the cost of construction and journey times of Navan-Dublin via Drogheda as against this project?

DWCommuter · 08-01-2008 8:30pm

Slice wrote: »

Has anyone considered the cost of construction and journey times of Navan-Dublin via Drogheda as against this project?

Yep.

Approx. 100 million and 65 mins. Current problem is capacity at Connolly. But an option exists to use the passing loop at Mosney to help ease the problem. Furthermore, if the current Docklands station had been connected to all lines entering the area, Navan via Drogheda trains couldve terminated there. They were also gaps in the Timetable where navan trains couldve been slotted in. IE said the DOT wouldn't consider it because they were committed to the direct route.

Prof_V · 08-01-2008 8:49pm

lostexpectation wrote: »

I don't understnad how it can't be economically feasible. if you can't fund a train to navan/meath, where can you?

Are they taking just the train service it self and build and run costs or are they considering every factor including the benefit to the economy of a less clogged roads to dublin and spreading the commuter load?

Nobody's said (yet) that it wouldn't be economically feasible. It wouldn't be financially viable in the sense that the fare revenue wouldn't cover capital costs, although it would apparently cover the operating costs. The real sticking point seems to be funding the capital cost.

jlang · 08-01-2008 9:05pm

Would they ever get the same guys to do a viability report on the WRC?

DWCommuter · 08-01-2008 9:36pm

jlang wrote: »

Would they ever get the same guys to do a viability report on the WRC?

They did and external consultants. Both said it was a non-runner. Even the working group report wasn't favourable. But the west had a strong lobby and a cheap price tag. An easy combination. They were fobbed off with a bit of track and a few promises.

Navan is a different ball game entirely. It comes with a huge cost attached. It would see far more usage than the WRC, but I don't believe there is any real commitment at Government or Co Co level. They threw a sewer main over the line which will have to be moved. (Confirmed in the report) and they were obiliterating the line at cannistown with the M3 until An Bord Pleanal intervened. These were bad omens.

That said, the project was included in T21. But I feel that was as a result of pressure applied by the likes of P11 and MOT. While the Government are prone to ignoring their own consultants etc etc, I think over half a billion euro for 18 miles of track is too much for the dept. of finance to stomach. They'll ride it out until the M3 is finished and then knock it on the head citing a lack of demand. The railway is not an issue to the majority of Navan residents. The Government know this. Its a pity, but a reality none the less.

chipclub · 09-01-2008 12:31pm

DWCommuter wrote: »

Yep.

Approx. 100 million and 65 mins. Current problem is capacity at Connolly. But an option exists to use the passing loop at Mosney to help ease the problem. Furthermore, if the current Docklands station had been connected to all lines entering the area, Navan via Drogheda trains couldve terminated there. They were also gaps in the Timetable where navan trains couldve been slotted in. IE said the DOT wouldn't consider it because they were committed to the direct route.

What? Navan to Connolly via Drogheda in 65 minutes? It is at least 65 minutes just from Drogheda to Connolly at peak times. Even the non-stop Enterprise regulary takes 40-45 minutes to do Drogheda - Connolly.

ilovegermany · 09-01-2008 6:29pm

I think we have to get realistic regarding the T21 Projects.
In the medium term - say up to 2011 - all infrastructural projects will require to be funded directly from capital borrowing. While 2008 and 2009 will be ok in terms of borrowing to advance T21 projects due to our low level of current debt - from 2010 on it will become a problem due to our commitments under the Stability and Growth Pact (i.e. restrictions on how much we can borrow). So basically some projects are going to have to get the boot, or at least be postponed.

They are firstly likely to be the Navan Rail Line past Pace, the Western Rail Corridor past Athenry and the City Centre to Liffey Junction Luas link.

We are doubly screwed because T21 provides for the Interconnector and extension of DART to Balbriggan without providing for the four tracking of the line from Clontarf Road. In the medium term this will have to be done particularly in light of moves to increase frequencies/speeds on the Enterprise Service. Also the opening of Sandyford - Cherrywood Luas extension in 2010 will swamp existing capacity on this line requiring future upgrades to Metro type capacities.

Our only hope is that some of the money destined for roads can be diverted to public transport. 2008 will see the last sections of all of the interurban motorways/dual carraigeways from Dublin to Cork/Limerick/Galway and Waterford move to construction. Given that we are spending €1.7 billion on roads this year - even a fairly modest redirection say €400 million a year - would facilitate the vast majority of public transport projects over 2009 to 2011

Navan Junction · 09-01-2008 9:29pm

Prof_V wrote: »

Nobody's said (yet) that it wouldn't be economically feasible. It wouldn't be financially viable in the sense that the fare revenue wouldn't cover capital costs, although it would apparently cover the operating costs. The real sticking point seems to be funding the capital cost.

And it is more than possible that the arguement relates to either funding or the levy scheme.

IÉ were manouverng strangely at the meeting.

One the one hand they were saying we'll do it for 2013 and it will cover it's costs but on the other they were plaing up on the capital funding aspects to the point of making dramatic statements about it.

Not one rail project in T21 is going to repay it's capital outlay beyond levy contributions, and Navan is not more expensie than any other project other than Midleton and Dunboyne

Something fishy about all of this

lostexpectation · 10-01-2008 5:11am

Prof_V wrote: »

Nobody's said (yet) that it wouldn't be economically feasible. It wouldn't be financially viable in the sense that the fare revenue wouldn't cover capital costs, although it would apparently cover the operating costs. The real sticking point seems to be funding the capital cost.

economically feasibility.

isn't this the only thing the matters

Irish and Proud · 13-01-2008 11:22pm

ilovegermany wrote: »

I think we have to get realistic regarding the T21 Projects.
In the medium term - say up to 2011 - all infrastructural projects will require to be funded directly from capital borrowing. While 2008 and 2009 will be ok in terms of borrowing to advance T21 projects due to our low level of current debt - from 2010 on it will become a problem due to our commitments under the Stability and Growth Pact (i.e. restrictions on how much we can borrow). So basically some projects are going to have to get the boot, or at least be postponed.

...and the projects likely to get the boot are the expensive public transport ones - I heard that roads yield an average of 14% per anumn on capital investment due to the economic magnet effect - so within ten years, a motorway will have paid for itself in extra tax revenue - correct me if I'm wrong.

ilovegermany wrote: »

They are firstly likely to be the Navan Rail Line past Pace, the Western Rail Corridor past Athenry and the City Centre to Liffey Junction Luas link.

...well the Liffey Junction Luas Link is badly needed - I guess many western commuter rail passengers would switch at Liffey Junction in order to access the Church Street and O'Connell Street areas if the Luas Line was built.

ilovegermany wrote: »

We are doubly screwed because T21 provides for the Interconnector and extension of DART to Balbriggan without providing for the four tracking of the line from Clontarf Road.

Somebody call the white coats!!! :mad:

ilovegermany wrote: »

In the medium term this will have to be done particularly in light of moves to increase frequencies/speeds on the Enterprise Service. Also the opening of Sandyford - Cherrywood Luas extension in 2010 will swamp existing capacity on this line requiring future upgrades to Metro type capacities.

The Northern Dart Line needs an upgrade now - particularly at Malahide. Many a time have I been delayed on the Northern Commuter because of a bloody Dart on the Malahide platform ahead - that station should have been upgraded to at least 3 platforms when the Dart was extended! :mad:

ilovegermany wrote: »

Our only hope is that some of the money destined for roads can be diverted to public transport. 2008 will see the last sections of all of the interurban motorways/dual carraigeways from Dublin to Cork/Limerick/Galway and Waterford move to construction. Given that we are spending €1.7 billion on roads this year - even a fairly modest redirection say €400 million a year - would facilitate the vast majority of public transport projects over 2009 to 2011

Maybe the Greens being in government will help - we need that Dublin Rail Interconnector Tunnel ASAP, as well as further Luas development (are the suburbs on the Northside not entitled to the Luas??? - Yes!, I back the Northside!!!

)

Regards!

Nostradamus · 14-01-2008 12:29pm

ilovegermany wrote: »

So basically some projects are going to have to get the boot, or at least be postponed.

They are firstly likely to be the Navan Rail Line past Pace, the Western Rail Corridor past Athenryand the City Centre to Liffey Junction Luas link.

Like everything else in Ireland, real politik will dictate the end results.

ilovegermany · 14-01-2008 3:09pm

Irish and Proud wrote: »

...and the projects likely to get the boot are the expensive public transport ones - I heard that roads yield an average of 14% per anumn on capital investment due to the economic magnet effect - so within ten years, a motorway will have paid for itself in extra tax revenue - correct me if I'm wrong.

...well the Liffey Junction Luas Link is badly needed - I guess many western commuter rail passengers would switch at Liffey Junction in order to access the Church Street and O'Connell Street areas if the Luas Line was built.

Somebody call the white coats!!! :mad:

The Northern Dart Line needs an upgrade now - particularly at Malahide. Many a time have I been delayed on the Northern Commuter because of a bloody Dart on the Malahide platform ahead - that station should have been upgraded to at least 3 platforms when the Dart was extended! :mad:

Maybe the Greens being in government will help - we need that Dublin Rail Interconnector Tunnel ASAP, as well as further Luas development (are the suburbs on the Northside not entitled to the Luas??? - Yes!, I back the Northside!!! )

Regards!

This country has my heart broken:mad:

ga2re2t · 21-01-2008 10:55am

ilovegermany wrote: »

2008 will see the last sections of all of the interurban motorways/dual carraigeways from Dublin to Cork/Limerick/Galway and Waterford move to construction.

I think this is an important point. We have always been in a situation where we have being playing catch up with the UK and the rest of Europe. Our roads where sh*te and it was always somewhat embarrasing to Irish politicians that the roads "up the North" were high quality. Ireland then runs into some money and the only thing on their brains is to upgrade the roads so that we can no longer be sneered by the British and looked down upon by the Yanks. Apart from the London Underground, rail in Britain isn't exactly well known for its achievements, so there was no pressure in that area.

Now, as ilovegermany has said, the roads are nearly done. I'm sure most of you have all seen that map showing Irish roads in 2015. It's not a pipe dream, it's actually going to happen and we're on the final furlong to getting there. The money train maybe gone by then, but all eyes will no longer be on the road network. It's sad to say, but I'm afraid we're all going to have to wait another 5 or 6 years before real public transport in Ireland really takes off. I'm not making excuses for anyone, just giving my opinion on how I feel things are.

Nobody could have predicted the enormous growth in Irish car ownership over the last 10 years, but one thing we can now predict is that it has to plateau out - once everybody has a car (which feels like the case sometimes) then only changes in population growth can affect car numbers on our roads. The cost of fuel will also be a major issue.

Rail transport will end up taking off for the same reasons that roads took off - to catch up. We can already see this with the metro. The government want a "metro" more for the reason of having what everybody else has than for logical economic and social reasons. Think of politicians as little boys trying to show that they have the best bike (and that even though it's a sh*te BMX they can still do stunts) and you'll get the picture. France, Germany, Spain and Italy all have (or will have) TGV style trains, so don't be surprised in 2015 if some goverment puts forward a T31 with a TGV project slated in before any direct Navan rail link gets built.

Victor · 21-01-2008 5:20pm

Irish and Proud wrote: »

...and the projects likely to get the boot are the expensive public transport ones - I heard that roads yield an average of 14% per anumn on capital investment due to the economic magnet effect - so within ten years, a motorway will have paid for itself in extra tax revenue - correct me if I'm wrong.

Yeah heard it wrong. While a bypass of a critical chokepoint might do that, do you think building a bridge out to the Aran Islands would have the same effect?

DWCommuter · 21-01-2008 10:22pm

Rail transport will end up taking off for the same reasons that roads took off - to catch up. We can already see this with the metro. The government want a "metro" more for the reason of having what everybody else has than for logical economic and social reasons. Think of politicians as little boys trying to show that they have the best bike (and that even though it's a sh*te BMX they can still do stunts) and you'll get the picture. France, Germany, Spain and Italy all have (or will have) TGV style trains, so don't be surprised in 2015 if some goverment puts forward a T31 with a TGV project slated in before any direct Navan rail link gets built.

Nice one Garret.

Poor Navan. It's now embedding itself into the political arena. That's the worst place it could be right now as it has the potential to become a banana skin. A senior IE manager is now on "annual leave" because of it. The Governments policy has to be, "keep it alive and healthy as long as possible". But if it becomes abundently clear that its going to happen at the expense of another rail project in the GDA (which shouldn't happen) then I predict a media and public backlash. That may suit Government and the next paragraph explains why.

The same Navan route is getting the M3. We are staring down the barrell of a, close to 1 billion euro gun, for the same reletively short corridor. Big investment for 30 miles. However it will be interesting to see if the Government and the Meath political attitude changes after the M3 opens for business. My prediction favours a situation whereby the M3 will answer prayers for commuters and the Government will do a railway u-turn on the basis of a further study, concluding that car and bus can manage it all with ease.

Road improvements in Ireland are already rendering IE's much lauded investment, redundant. The current rail improvements are based on a road network that was poor. When motorways competed with rail, all across Europes wealthier states, namely, the UK, France, Germany etc. rail operators were forced into developing fast services that could beat the motorway option. Ireland has the benefit of this history, but hasn't recognised it. As Garret pointed out above, our Governments love affair with road improvements is reminiscent of many other European states back in the 40s, 50, and 60s. With proper use of prosperity and funds, we could have had so much more.

That said, according to the Government we may be getting the best 30 miles of transport investment in the history of the state. A railway to Navan and a motorway along side it. Maybe the same landowners in Meath have a little bit left to offer.;)

rekrow · 23-01-2008 6:56pm

It's just crazy that a road through such a highly populated area is considered not financially viable. Recently took the train from Athenry to Dublin. About 50-100 people got off the train at 1800 (peak time). Hope IE won't be expecting a pay back on the WRC anytime soon. Passes mainly through greenfields and in parallel with the road infrastructure will go out to Athenry before heading for Galway city. CIE must have sold of the land on the original route for the costs to be so high.:mad:

redstar · 14-05-2008 5:28pm

In this weeks Meath Chronicle, Noel Dempseyis quoted as saying "... feasability study will start this year" to choose the final recommended route for the Navan Rail line. I thought they had already decided that the original route was the preferred one after the scoping study ? It seems that Meath Co Co want the route to take in Dunshaughlin, so now another study has to take place. :mad:

Only in Oirland ...... :rolleyes:

DWCommuter · 14-05-2008 9:52pm

Would need more clarification. The original (preferred) route passes very close to Dunshauglin in Drumree. Interestingly its the one side of Dunshaughlin that isn't developed!!!!! (insert muppet factor here) Drumree is located closer to Dunshaughlin than many existing stations are to the towns they serve.

Havent seen the article, but it sounds suspicious or at least confused.

redstar · 15-05-2008 12:02pm

Well it confused me alright. The article mentions that the scoping study reduced the number of possible routes to the 'final two'

So when do they get to Procurement order stage ? Scoping is done, next is feasibility, then what ??

The article is not online so unfortunately I can't add a pointer to it.

DWCommuter · 16-05-2008 12:59am

As far as I know, the preferred route was presented to MCC a few months back by IE. A certain railway man gave his opinion on it in economic terms and got an extended holiday as a result.

Perhaps Dempsey has slotted in another route thats "more viable" in terms of population centres and will now use this in a dual forecast fashion to appease councillors and suitably delay the project in the best interests of the ever decreasing ring fenced cash.:eek:

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