What will happen to sinn fein after this election.

bladespin · 13-01-2020 5:10pm

Matt Barrett wrote: »

The Tan commemoration was simple arrogance. Not related to the election or anything else. Arrogance.

It was a shocking miscalculation, we often say they're out of touch etc etc but could never dream of demonstrating just how far away from reality they are until...

IAMAMORON · 13-01-2020 5:10pm

Bambi wrote: »

FGs evil plan is to have people not vote for them because of the Tan War (2020 edition) rather than not vote for them because of housing and health?

Sounds like a swiss watch of a plan...

If you think about it for a second.

No one is not going to vote for FG because they agreed to an RIC commemoration.

But they could definitely lose support if they raise taxes and cost the country money, which they are doing. So they would rather have a load of bar stool republicans, a lot of who won't leave the pub to vote anyway, bitch on about 100 year old politics, that makes no difference to what is happening in Ireland for the next 5 years.

It actually makes a lot of sense.

You were never not voting for FG because you didn't agree with Cumann na nGael policies of the 1920's... but their major support base will see the commemoration issue as meaningless, as will other non republicans who also vote.

JohnnyFlash · 13-01-2020 5:13pm

SF have shown themselves to be a real party of hurlers on the ditch over the past few years. Bluster and indignation isn’t leadership and the majority of voters see that. It’s going to be a shïtshow of an election for them.

suicide_circus · 13-01-2020 5:26pm

What would happen? Nothing.

They'd be told by the mandarins in the upper echelons of the public service that any radical plans they have are unworkable. They might get a border poll but thats about it.

James Brown · 13-01-2020 5:49pm

I think all parties need to find a back bone. There should be no 'no go' areas.
The first party to get in and take a run at the HSE and the Civil Service etc. will win my respect.
FF/FG are not those parties. Kenny had the best chance for that.
We need a change from FF/FG.
I'll be voting SD/Indie/SF etc.
The Greens are a novelty party and Labour cannot be trusted.

Brussels Sprout · 13-01-2020 6:04pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Overall votes for the hard left will probably be down as their angry message is not going to work anymore. That could put them out of the running for some seats. Retirements too will hit them. Even if they hold up around where their support level was in 2016, it is doubtful IMO and they will naturally lose seats anyway through lack of transfers. I think they'll lose 3 seat straight off - Louth, Kerry and Meath East. You could probably add Cork NC to that list. If their vote doesn't go south of 13%-14% I'd say 6-7 losses in seats will be good. If it does go under 13% then we could be talking about double figure losses. FF will probably gain from that, but so will others.

Nah, they'll definitely hold that seat, straight swap of Thomas Gould who did well in the recent by-election for Jonathon O'Brien (retiring).

Donnacha O' Laoghaire in CSC could be in trouble though. He'll be fighting with Jerry Buttimer and the Greens for that final seat.

dulpit · 13-01-2020 6:05pm

Matt Barrett wrote: »

I think all parties need to find a back bone. There should be no 'no go' areas.
The first party to get in and take a run at the HSE and the Civil Service etc. will win my respect.
FF/FG are not those parties. Kenny had the best chance for that.
We need a change from FF/FG.
I'll be voting SD/Indie/SF etc.
The Greens are a novelty party and Labour cannot be trusted.

You say you want a party who will get in and take a run at the HSE/etc, but then say the Greens are a novelty party and Labour can't be trusted, but these are the parties who have actually had a go at government in the past, but got bashed for it..

bladespin · 13-01-2020 6:07pm

dulpit wrote: »

You say you want a party who will get in and take a run at the HSE/etc, but then say the Greens are a novelty party and Labour can't be trusted, but these are the parties who have actually had a go at government in the past, but got bashed for it..

How did the Greens 'have a go' at the civil service or HSE? In fairness they had bigger things to deal with but still.

JP Liz V1 · 13-01-2020 6:08pm

decky1 wrote: »

Time to move on , maybe give them a chance and see if they live up to their promises, could they be any worse that previous elected , we can't just keep going around in circles with the same parties every few years and spent that time saying their no good , lets give them a chance.

Yes let's give SF a chance, Doherty would be a better leader imho

marieholmfan · 13-01-2020 6:10pm

Yes but it might cost them transfers. I'd say that Marcella Kennedy will get in before Flanagan and he may now be transfer toxic.

IAMAMORON wrote: »

If you think about it for a second.

No one is not going to vote for FG because they agreed to an RIC commemoration.

But they could definitely lose support if they raise taxes and cost the country money, which they are doing. So they would rather have a load of bar stool republicans, a lot of who won't leave the pub to vote anyway, bitch on about 100 year old politics, that makes no difference to what is happening in Ireland for the next 5 years.

It actually makes a lot of sense.

You were never not voting for FG because you didn't agree with Cumann na nGael policies of the 1920's... but their major support base will see the commemoration issue as meaningless, as will other non republicans who also vote.

IAMAMORON · 13-01-2020 6:30pm

marieholmfan wrote: »

Yes but it might cost them transfers. I'd say that Marcella Kennedy will get in before Flanagan and he may now be transfer toxic.

No I don't believe so.

In fact anyone who is involving sentiment from a conflict that occurred 100 years ago has their heads firmly in the clouds. Ireland is thankfully a very different place, we should be very grateful to our republican heroes, but this country massively needs to move on.

No one voting next month was even alive in 1920. If they manage to not transfer their vote to Charlie Flanagan as result? No chance, they were never transferring in the first place.

Voters either still identify with the 1920's or they don't.

James Brown · 13-01-2020 7:25pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

No I don't believe so.

In fact anyone who is involving sentiment from a conflict that occurred 100 years ago has their heads firmly in the clouds. Ireland is thankfully a very different place, we should be very grateful to our republican heroes, but this country massively needs to move on.

No one voting next month was even alive in 1920. If they manage to not transfer their vote to Charlie Flanagan as result? No chance, they were never transferring in the first place.

Voters either still identify with the 1920's or they don't.

Like the Maria Bailey, Dara Murphy issues it's about the character of the politicians that make up the party.
Some floating voters are giving razor thin support to FG as is.

Dyr · 13-01-2020 7:46pm

Matt Barrett wrote: »

I think all parties need to find a back bone. There should be no 'no go' areas.
The first party to get in and take a run at the HSE and the Civil Service etc. will win my respect.
FF/FG are not those parties. Kenny had the best chance for that.
We need a change from FF/FG.
I'll be voting SD/Indie/SF etc.
The Greens are a novelty party and Labour cannot be trusted.

The SDs, SF and Assorted are less likely to reform the HSE and the Civil Service.

James Brown · 13-01-2020 7:51pm

Bambi wrote: »

The SDs, SF and Assorted are less likely to reform the HSE and the Civil Service.

Than who, the parties who didn't and won't?

ghost of ireland past · 13-01-2020 7:58pm

I think it's appropriate that people should be very disillusioned about the prospects on offer when it comes to politicians.

Irish politicians have no vision in my view. What do they stand for? I feel that when you listen to them they don't really stand for anything.

We need real politicians with vision. Like Victor Urban for example, who at least is proud of his country's Christian heritage and he intends to honour it, and to protect it. That makes him worthwhile to get behind, because he stands for something.

I have no interest in Irish politicians because I get the impression they don't stand for anything, and Sinn Fein are no different.

With Sinn Fein it seems to be, 'Ireland for the whole world, except the Brits', and that's not a vision that people can get behind.

13-01-2020 8:07pm

Pearse Doherty will become leader.

Dyr · 13-01-2020 8:16pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Pearse Doherty will become leader.

Doherty refused to stand for leadership because he had a young family.

Now unless that was just to cover up that SFs senior string pullers told him they wanted Mary Lou then he aint going to be taking over as leader anytime soon.

Dyr · 13-01-2020 8:17pm

ghost of ireland past wrote: »

I think it's appropriate that people should be very disillusioned about the prospects on offer when it comes to politicians.

Irish politicians have no vision in my view. What do they stand for? I feel that when you listen to them they don't really stand for anything.

We need real politicians with vision. Like Victor Urban for example, who at least is proud of his country's Christian heritage and he intends to honour it, and to protect it. That makes him worthwhile to get behind, because he stands for something.
.

Does Christianity not have a thing about thou shalt not nick money from the tax payer?

Loafing Oaf · 13-01-2020 8:24pm

ghost of ireland past wrote: »

We need real politicians with vision. Like Victor Urban for example, who at least is proud of his country's Christian heritage and he intends to honour it, and to protect it. That makes him worthwhile to get behind, because he stands for something.

We have such politicians, or more accurately wannabe politicians, in the form of Justin Barrett, Ronan Mullen, John McGuirk etc. Problem for you is nobody votes for them...

padd b1975 · 13-01-2020 8:31pm

They're definitely missing the whiff of sulphur that Adams brought to the party.
There's plenty of morons out there that found his folksy/sinister rhetoric strangely seductive.

The Mary Lou generation simply don't appeal to that cohort.

NIMAN · 13-01-2020 8:33pm

Bambi wrote: »

Doherty refused to stand for leadership because he had a young family.

Now unless that was just to cover up that SFs senior string pullers told him they wanted Mary Lou then he aint going to be taking over as leader anytime soon.

SF don't do leadership contests.

If I was a betting man I'd say PD was told they were going for the female leader and go along with it.

But I suspect he might be in the running for the next leader role if MLMD doesn't turn the party's fortunes around soon.

FrancieBrady · 13-01-2020 8:36pm

I think this is make or break for ML. She got a bit of a boost in the bye elections and being back in Stormont will help. But I think with retirements and as somebody said, 'that lack of spark' the best might be to just tread water.

FF/FG are the same party, it's a shame the rest cannot form a decent cohesive bloc and offer a real opposition party with some clout here. Going into government is just self destruction here sadly.

13-01-2020 8:38pm

ghost of ireland past wrote: »

I think it's appropriate that people should be very disillusioned about the prospects on offer when it comes to politicians.

Irish politicians have no vision in my view. What do they stand for? I feel that when you listen to them they don't really stand for anything.

We need real politicians with vision. Like Victor Urban for example, who at least is proud of his country's Christian heritage and he intends to honour it, and to protect it. That makes him worthwhile to get behind, because he stands for something.

I have no interest in Irish politicians because I get the impression they don't stand for anything, and Sinn Fein are no different.

With Sinn Fein it seems to be, 'Ireland for the whole world, except the Brits', and that's not a vision that people can get behind.

Theocratic Ireland is in the grave, and long may she stay there.

ghost of ireland past · 13-01-2020 8:47pm

Our national vision doesn't have to be a religious vision, but nor do we have to hate our past, or betray it.

But we do need to stand for something, beside modernity and consumerism, and growth for growth's sake. Life should be about more than that.

We're so constrained in what we can talk about.

Why is there so much corruption and crime in the west?
Why is there a war on drugs?

mynamejeff · 13-01-2020 8:56pm

They will get a hammering and go back to robbing banks and taxing drug dealers ?

no stupid people will vote for them inspite of the shambles they have made of the north

first armed criminal gang in government in the world

blanch152 · 13-01-2020 9:07pm

dulpit wrote: »

You say you want a party who will get in and take a run at the HSE/etc, but then say the Greens are a novelty party and Labour can't be trusted, but these are the parties who have actually had a go at government in the past, but got bashed for it..

There are some people who will perpetually vote for a “hurler on the ditch” party. They like to be able to complain about whoever is in power without ever offering solutions or suggestions. Voting independent is usually one sign, but support for the SDs or SF is another.

To be fair to FF, FG, Labour, Greens, and before them the PDs, they have all been willing to take the responsibility of government.

James Brown · 13-01-2020 9:29pm

What about people who don't trust Labour, don't like the Greens and are aware of FF/FG's records, former FG/FF voters unhappy with them?

Personally I'll gamble on an unknown before I'd back failures and me feiners.

tayto lover · 13-01-2020 9:35pm

blanch152 wrote: »

There are some people who will perpetually vote for a “hurler on the ditch” party. They like to be able to complain about whoever is in power without ever offering solutions or suggestions. Voting independent is usually one sign, but support for the SDs or SF is another.

To be fair to FF, FG, Labour, Greens, and before them the PDs, they have all been willing to take the responsibility of government.

And we saw what happened to the Greens and Labour after they backed the government parties the last time. They abandoned all their own policies for a wee bit of power and suffered in the next elections. Their leaders sold out for power and pensions.

LuasSimon · 13-01-2020 9:36pm

The new Sinn Fein are big into the whole transgender - Abortion - gay marriage - travellers rights and general PC stuff which may work in Dublin and some other urban areas but they have lost a lot of the old republican vote to Aontu- independents - Fianna Fáil . The 3-4% vote alone that aontu will get in rural Ireland will cost Sinn Fein seats .
Sinn Fein seem to be more into traveller rights than a United ireland .

James Brown · 13-01-2020 9:36pm

tayto lover wrote: »

And we saw what happened to the Greens and Labour after they backed the government parties the last time. They abandoned all their own policies for a wee bit of power and suffered in the next elections. Their leaders sold out for power and pensions.

The idea that you're not legit or cool if you don't vote FF or FG is gas.
Labour have not made any moves to rebrand or fix themselves IMO.
The Greens same.

SF need promote supporting the tax paying worker.

hmmm · 13-01-2020 9:57pm

There's no point to SF.

A United Ireland will probably happen eventually, and it can't be through a "defeat" of unionists. They'll have to feel they can benefit to ensure a smooth union, and the last party they will trust is SF. The existence of SF in my opinion makes a UI less likely.

After that you have their scattergun economic policy which most voters can see through. They are fighting the hard-left for the tiny vote who are in favour of handouts to people who aren't much interested in working. They are promising money for everything. Voters worry that taxes will increase massively in a SF government. Their record in NI has been pretty poor.

Their social policies make little sense, because other than a few media-savvy leaders their membership is largely made up of quite conservative people. Really SF should be going after the FF vote, not the FG/Labour vote.

So, ultimately, what's the point of SF?

James Brown · 13-01-2020 10:43pm

hmmm wrote: »

There's no point to SF.

A United Ireland will probably happen eventually, and it can't be through a "defeat" of unionists. They'll have to feel they can benefit to ensure a smooth union, and the last party they will trust is SF. The existence of SF in my opinion makes a UI less likely.

After that you have their scattergun economic policy which most voters can see through. They are fighting the hard-left for the tiny vote who are in favour of handouts to people who aren't much interested in working. They are promising money for everything. Voters worry that taxes will increase massively in a SF government. Their record in NI has been pretty poor.

Their social policies make little sense, because other than a few media-savvy leaders their membership is largely made up of quite conservative people. Really SF should be going after the FF vote, not the FG/Labour vote.

So, ultimately, what's the point of SF?

If you like them you vote for them. You could say worse about others at least SF took a stand. It's easier to cadge votes when you will tell lies to get elected.
I see them as more likely to look after the tax paying worker. They dont and never did own the concept of a UI for me.

hmmm · 14-01-2020 12:33am

Matt Barrett wrote: »

If you like them you vote for them. You could say worse about others at least SF took a stand. It's easier to cadge votes when you will tell lies to get elected.
I see them as more likely to look after the tax paying worker. They dont and never did own the concept of a UI for me.

Took a stand? They say "yes" to everything. Free money for this, free money for that. We only have to look at NI to see how poor they have been when actually in power.

Accusing politicians of telling "lies" is lazy commentating - no politician has the money or the power to do everything they'd like to do, and they have to make the hard decisions on trade-offs. Let's see when SF get into power whether they can achieve 100% of what they have promised.

CrankyHaus · 14-01-2020 12:54am

hmmm wrote: »

.

Their social policies make little sense, because other than a few media-savvy leaders their membership is largely made up of quite conservative people. Really SF should be going after the FF vote, not the FG/Labour vote.

I'd say this new focus is based on a strategy of engaging younger voters. The Gay Marriage and Abortion referendums and climate strike could be presented as proof of a new generation of voters looking for woke candidates.
Social media has been well harnessed by SF in this regard. It may work, but the UK's last election, with vocal Jezza support and Bojo abuse online not transferring to the ballot box, suggests it may not. It seems that Twitter etc are less the commanding heights than an alienating foghorn.

I'll be genuinely interested to see how they get on.

JohnnyFlash · 14-01-2020 9:47am

padd b1975 wrote: »

They're definitely missing the whiff of sulphur that Adams brought to the party.
There's plenty of morons out there that found his folksy/sinister rhetoric strangely seductive.

The Mary Lou generation simply don't appeal to that cohort.

I presume Martin ‘The Man with the Van’ Ferris is retiring as well. What about Dessie Ellis I wonder?

blanch152 · 14-01-2020 12:12pm

tayto lover wrote: »

And we saw what happened to the Greens and Labour after they backed the government parties the last time. They abandoned all their own policies for a wee bit of power and suffered in the next elections. Their leaders sold out for power and pensions.

From Wikipedia:

"In almost four years in Government, from 2007 to 2011, the Green Party contributed to the passage of civil partnership for same-sex couples,[32] the introduction of major planning reform,[33] a major increase in renewable energy output,[34] progressive budgets,[35] and a nationwide scheme of home insulation retrofitting.[36]"

They also oversaw the introduction of the first carbon levy in Ireland. They are all solid achievements for a minority party. You can't expect a minority party to achieve most of their objectives, because they are obviously a minority party.

The one thing you can say about them is that they were naively fooled by FF on the bank bailout.

Over the last decade and a half then, the Green Party, despite having far fewer seats, have delivered more for their voters than Sinn Fein, who as always have sat on their hands on the sidelines.

tayto lover · 14-01-2020 12:22pm

blanch152 wrote: »

From Wikipedia:

"In almost four years in Government, from 2007 to 2011, the Green Party contributed to the passage of civil partnership for same-sex couples,[32] the introduction of major planning reform,[33] a major increase in renewable energy output,[34] progressive budgets,[35] and a nationwide scheme of home insulation retrofitting.[36]"

They also oversaw the introduction of the first carbon levy in Ireland. They are all solid achievements for a minority party. You can't expect a minority party to achieve most of their objectives, because they are obviously a minority party.

The one thing you can say about them is that they were naively fooled by FF on the bank bailout.

Over the last decade and a half then, the Green Party, despite having far fewer seats, have delivered more for their voters than Sinn Fein, who as always have sat on their hands on the sidelines.

They may have contributed more than SF but they always succeeded in costing the taxpayers more. What about them demanding that we buy diesel cars? Look where that got us.

blanch152 · 14-01-2020 12:23pm

tayto lover wrote: »

They may have contributed more than SF but they always succeeded in costing the taxpayers more. What about them demanding that we buy diesel cars? Look where that got us.

To be fair, it was the car companies that lied about emissions from diesel vehicles, the Greens can't be blamed for acting on the false information.

tayto lover · 14-01-2020 12:28pm

blanch152 wrote: »

To be fair, it was the car companies that lied about emissions from diesel vehicles, the Greens can't be blamed for acting on the false information.

I know a few of them in my area. They don’t fill me with confidence Blanch.
Chancers of the highest order. Madcap ideas. My choices in this GE are even worse than last time and that’s bad.

blanch152 · 14-01-2020 12:29pm

tayto lover wrote: »

I know a few of them in my area. They don’t fill me with confidence Blanch.
Chancers of the highest order. Madcap ideas. My choices in this GE are even worse than last time and that’s bad.

Out in Dublin 15, we have Roderic O'Gorman, who has a sensible practical approach.

FrancieBrady · 14-01-2020 12:50pm

When considering who gets my vote at election time I always review what might have happened had we not got an effective opposition.

A successful healthy democratic government needs both a ruling party and an effective, watchful opposition not afraid to take it's oversight duties seriously.

golfball37 · 14-01-2020 1:05pm

If SF continue down this woke path they will fade into obscurity.

Skylinehead · 14-01-2020 1:09pm

blanch152 wrote: »

To be fair, it was the car companies that lied about emissions from diesel vehicles, the Greens can't be blamed for acting on the false information.

They can. Diesel has been known to be dirtier than petrol for decades. The Greens blindly went on a CO2 crusade (and diesel, lying by car companies or not, does emit less of that than petrol) while completely ignoring nitrogen dioxide and the other poisons thrown out in quantity by diesels.

walshb · 14-01-2020 1:18pm

SF don't want to be in charge, calling shots, responsible for making contentious and crucial and critical and divisive and polarizing decisions....

Nothing will happen after the election. They will continue on on the sidelines giving out non stop about everything!

joe40 · 14-01-2020 1:20pm

It has been over 20 years since the good Friday agreement, and there have been no terrorist type activities linked to Sinn Fein or condoned by Sinn Fein since then.

20 years after the civil war and war of independence opposing parties were in government. 20 years after wwII where millions perished the opposing countries were able to form the EEC.

Constantly harking back to the NI troubles is tiresome, it has been 20 years, time to move on.

How many people are critical of everything Sinn Fein related as a result of NI, and activities of the past.

As a political party they should be judged solely on current policies.

L1011 · 14-01-2020 1:23pm

joe40 wrote: »

It has been over 20 years since the good Friday agreement, and there have been no terrorist type activities linked to Sinn Fein or condoned by Sinn Fein since then.

Just the largest bank robbery in NIs history. Its a lot more recent than 1998 that activity ceased.

JohnnyFlash · 14-01-2020 1:25pm

joe40 wrote: »

It has been over 20 years since the good Friday agreement, and there have been no terrorist type activities linked to Sinn Fein or condoned by Sinn Fein since then.

20 years after the civil war and war of independence opposing parties were in government. 20 years after wwII where millions perished the opposing countries were able to form the EEC.

Constantly harking back to the NI troubles is tiresome, it has been 20 years, time to move on.

How many people are critical of everything Sinn Fein related as a result of NI, and activities of the past.

As a political party they should be judged solely on current policies.

They’ve a gibbering illiterate in the Dáil who picked up then murderers of a police officer. One example. If you sleep with dogs then you wake up with fleas.

blanch152 · 14-01-2020 1:32pm

joe40 wrote: »

It has been over 20 years since the good Friday agreement, and there have been no terrorist type activities linked to Sinn Fein or condoned by Sinn Fein since then.

20 years after the civil war and war of independence opposing parties were in government. 20 years after wwII where millions perished the opposing countries were able to form the EEC.

Constantly harking back to the NI troubles is tiresome, it has been 20 years, time to move on.

How many people are critical of everything Sinn Fein related as a result of NI, and activities of the past.

As a political party they should be judged solely on current policies.

Didn't the PSNI confirm a couple of years ago that the IRA leadership remains in place?

silver2020 · 14-01-2020 1:33pm

Ms Mc Donald was giving and example of NI & the DUP as an example of SF working with others that they would not have a lot in common with when talking about potential of coalition with FG or FF.

She seems to have forgotten that up until last Saturday morning, petty squabbling by both SF & DUP meant that there was no government in NI for the past 3 years - yet this was the example she was giving?

laughable

NIMAN · 14-01-2020 1:48pm

silver2020 wrote: »

Ms Mc Donald was giving and example of NI & the DUP as an example of SF working with others that they would not have a lot in common with when talking about potential of coalition with FG or FF.

She seems to have forgotten that up until last Saturday morning, petty squabbling by both SF & DUP meant that there was no government in NI for the past 3 years - yet this was the example she was giving?

laughable

Yeah had a giggle with the SF finance minister Conor Murphy yesterday.

He was chatting about how Boris had offered them X amount of money, but he said it was falling way short.

He had the cheek to say "we have honoured our commitments getting the executive back up and running ....."

Yeah, after 1000 days of doing sweet FA...and it was only the threat of an election when they would lose more seats, that they decided to get back to work.

What will happen to sinn fein after this election.

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