What will happen to sinn fein after this election.

mariaalice · 13-01-2020 11:46am #1

Mary Lou on RTE at the moment doing much better than Micheál Martin, however, they may fall off a cliff after this election?

The issue is they have a few very competent people who are heled back by being in SF and the rest of SF

Locally they attract a lot of chip on their shoulders and crank type supporters which does affect their vote and its possible the same in each constituency?.

N.I is different.

bladespin · 13-01-2020 11:49am

Very much agree, as a party they often say the right things for me but then the old style SF kicks in, than along with history puts me off completely.

is_that_so · 13-01-2020 11:57am

Overall votes for the hard left will probably be down as their angry message is not going to work anymore. That could put them out of the running for some seats. Retirements too will hit them. Even if they hold up around where their support level was in 2016, it is doubtful IMO and they will naturally lose seats anyway through lack of transfers. I think they'll lose 3 seat straight off - Louth, Kerry and Meath East. You could probably add Cork NC to that list. If their vote doesn't go south of 13%-14% I'd say 6-7 losses in seats will be good. If it does go under 13% then we could be talking about double figure losses. FF will probably gain from that, but so will others.

mariaalice · 13-01-2020 12:06pm

Labour could make a comeback if SF declines? the middling left vote has to go somewhere.

NIMAN · 13-01-2020 12:18pm

As far as the current voting population is concerned, I think SF have reached their natural level at around 13-15% or whatever they have been averaging.

They simply cannot convince any others to vote for them for various reasons.

But I think their future will depend on how they can convince the younger voters that they are a party you could vote for, and I think a lot of this will be done by pointing out the mistakes of FF and FG.

_Brian · 13-01-2020 12:22pm

mariaalice wrote: »

Labour could make a comeback if SF declines? the middling left vote has to go somewhere.

Aontu will make gains at the expense of both SF and FF.

ELM327 · 13-01-2020 12:24pm

NIMAN wrote: »

As far as the current voting population is concerned, I think SF have reached their natural level at around 13-15% or whatever they have been averaging.

They simply cannot convince any others to vote for them for various reasons.

But I think there future will depend on how they can convince the younger voters that they are a party you could vote for, and I think a lot of this will be done by pointing out the mistakes of FF and FG.

I think the name of SF is too poisonous , it will never exceed a small percentage (13-15 as you outline).

If they had some credible suggestions and a name change they may in time reach FF/FG levels but realistically they are too far left currently.

_Brian wrote: »

Aontu will make gains at the expense of both SF and FF.

Not bloody likely, thankfully.

Mad_maxx · 13-01-2020 12:38pm

Since Eoin o Broin took a forward role in strategy, they have begun pitching to the socially Liberal Pro EU voter, that's a pretty crowded space, the greens, Labour, soc dems

O Broin championing Margaret Cash went down like a led balloon as well

They've lost their identity a little

ELM327 · 13-01-2020 12:41pm

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Since Eoin o Broin took a forward role in strategy, they have begun pitching to the socially Liberal Pro EU voter, that's a pretty crowded space, the greens, Labour, soc dems

O Broin championing Margaret Cash went down like a led balloon as well

They've lost their identity a little

Well they haven't worked!
A large component of that demographic (of which I am part of) would be quite affluent (A-C1) and would not vote for SF or any similar outlandish party with the risk of killing the economy. An economy let's not forget where ~500,000 jobs or ~40% of FTE (depending on source and definition), are derived from FDI based on our CT rate.
SF have proposed increasing that.

These voters would traditionally have voted FG, and now some are migrating to the greens.

ratracer · 13-01-2020 12:45pm

_Brian wrote: »

Aontu will make gains at the expense of both SF and FF.

Do they have many candidates? I’ve heard very little about them apart from Peadar O’T being their leader.

Fr_Dougal · 13-01-2020 12:48pm

SF have turned into a mouthpiece for the work shy. That and their links to terrorists and criminal gangs will hopefully mean they never get into power. Let them stay on the fringes where they belong.

bladespin · 13-01-2020 12:52pm

ratracer wrote: »

Do they have many candidates? I’ve heard very little about them apart from Peadar O’T being their leader.

Very early, very small but am sure they will appeal to a certain voter type, it will and has damaged SF.

decky1 · 13-01-2020 12:56pm

Time to move on , maybe give them a chance and see if they live up to their promises, could they be any worse that previous elected , we can't just keep going around in circles with the same parties every few years and spent that time saying their no good , lets give them a chance.

mariaalice · 13-01-2020 1:01pm

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

SF have turned into a mouthpiece for the work shy. That and their links to terrorists and criminal gangs will hopefully mean they never get into power. Let them stay on the fringes where they belong.

Not shouting up for SF, but no they haven't they have taken on those who feel they are marginalised ( whether they are marginalised is another question ) AH has about 5 or 6 posters who are obsessed if not at this stage possessed by social welfare, social housing ect, despite the fantasies in their head, its a marginal issue for most of the electorate.

Idbatterim · 13-01-2020 1:01pm

housing and health worse than ever and SF still not making further ground. I am just saying, it doesnt take just an economic collapse to create anger or problems. Basically, they are going nowhere. We are likely stuck with FFG farce, for another hundred years!

Idbatterim · 13-01-2020 1:04pm

mariaalice wrote: »

Not shouting up for SF, but no they haven't they have taken on those who feel they are marginalised ( whether they are marginalised is another question ) AH has about 5 or 6 posters who are obsessed if not at this stage possessed by social welfare, social housing ect, despite the fantasties in there head, its at most a marginal issue for most of the electorate.

the marginal issue that you think it is, costs the state billions. Billions that could be far better spent!

For example Fg will lose power over rip off housing for workers and not looking after workers. Yet they look after people that will never vote for them and would spit on them in the street. So it goes to show you, that FG cant even be arsed doing the bare minimum and I am meant to believe they would address the health issues and public service etc! PLEASE!

ELM327 · 13-01-2020 1:05pm

Idbatterim wrote: »

housing and health worse than ever and SF still not making further ground. I am just saying, it doesnt take just an economic collapse to create anger or problems. Basically, they are going nowhere. We are likely stuck with FFG farce, for another hundred years!

+1
If the bleeding heart SJW left wing socialist extremists cannot make large gains with a crisis in health and a perceived housing crisis, then they never will.

ELM327 · 13-01-2020 1:06pm

Idbatterim wrote: »

the marginal issue that you think it is, costs the state billions. Billions that could be far better spent!

For example Fg will lose power over rip off housing for workers and not looking after workers. Yet they look after people that will never vote for them and would spit on them in the street. So it goes to show you, that FG cant even be arsed doing the bare minimum and I am meant to believe they would address the health issues and public service etc! PLEASE!

FF + FG have had a century in government, so it is unlikely that either will fix the problem.

SF will throw tax payer money at problems but it is unlikely to fix the issues, and is likely to bankrupt the country in the process.

marieholmfan · 13-01-2020 1:08pm

ELM327 wrote: »

I think the name of SF is too poisonous , it will never exceed a small percentage (13-15 as you outline).

If they had some credible suggestions and a name change they may in time reach FF/FG levels but realistically they are too far left currently.

Not bloody likely, thankfully.

I don't think that any political party should be allowed to call itself Sinn Fein.

NIMAN · 13-01-2020 1:15pm

ELM327 wrote: »

+1
If the bleeding heart SJW left wing socialist extremists cannot make large gains with a crisis in health and a perceived housing crisis, then they never will.

.... and they made no significant gains after the economic collapse of 2008-10 either.

If that doesn't help your share of votes, nothing will.

Wanderer78 · 13-01-2020 1:16pm

They're fcuked, they ll even become less significant than their current state of not significant at all

L1011 · 13-01-2020 1:18pm

If its not a massacre, they'll look to move Mary Lou on before the next locals and probably replace her with a Northern leader and have a specific Dail leader again; as they need to try shore themselves up in NI more critically than down here

If its a really bad day, they may need a new leader immediately. Mary Lou has lost her seat (Euro but still) before.

dulpit · 13-01-2020 1:28pm

I suspect the main issue for SF is that they still have to hang onto the Provo identity, you'd see the odd TD talking about commemorating some volunteers who died in the 70s/80s. If they move away from that fully then maybe more people would be likely to vote for them, but at the same time if they moved away from that tradition they would alienate their current voter-base, and the cohort in the North wouldn't be best pleased.

I think until the full lost of members who would have been active in the IRA back in the troubles are gone from the ranks (which could be another 30 years) they won't be able to make a bigger push, unless something major happens within the party.

Bass Reeves · 13-01-2020 1:34pm

I can actually see SF in government after the next election. There poisonous image to other parties has waned. They now know they have plateued with there present brand of anti everything. FF or FG will struggle to get beyondid 50,'s in seats SF on 17/18 would bring either party above 70 seats leaving about 15 more for a majority. Greens at 3-6 seats along with FF( Healy Rae's, et Al) FG (Lowry Naughton and present independent's) would leave either party looking at another 5-6 to form s government.

Other than that it s race between FF and FG to see who gets the highest number of seats with the other in support for next 4-5 years.

Every dog on the street know that health is unfixable with present vested interests with an election coming there was always going to be a bigger than ever trolly crisis.

Housing is an issue where structural reforms outside the box to solve the issue.

Wanderer78 · 13-01-2020 1:42pm

Bass Reeves wrote:

I can actually see SF in government after the next election. There poisonous image to other parties has waned. They now know they have plateued with there present brand of anti everything. FF or FG will struggle to get beyondid 50,'s in seats SF on 17/18 would bring either party above 70 seats leaving about 15 more for a majority. Greens at 3-6 seats along with FF( Healy Rae's, et Al) FG (Lowry Naughton and present independent's) would leave either party looking at another 5-6 to form s government.

I think you d be fairly naive to think sf will be in government soon, it's really only a 1 horse race between fg and ff for the foreseeable future unfortunately, we currently don't have alternatives, and I suspect, we never will either

dulpit · 13-01-2020 1:45pm

The biggest issue with the other parties going into power with Sinn Féin is that they know it will hurt them in the next election. The transfers from the big parties to Sinn Féin is relatively small, and I would guess a lot of people (FG votes in particular) would not forgive their party for putting Sinn Féin ministers in...

is_that_so · 13-01-2020 1:53pm

_Brian wrote: »

Aontu will make gains at the expense of both SF and FF.

Aontu will do moderately well in one constituency only, but still lose.

bladespin · 13-01-2020 1:54pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Aontu will do moderately well in one constituency only, but still lose.

How many seats do you think they can loose?

is_that_so · 13-01-2020 1:58pm

bladespin wrote: »

How many seats do you think they can loose?

Aontu will get none as they are too small. Depending on the SF support level, up to 10. 3 for sure, as I said, and realistically could be 6-7 because they won't have that transfer base from the left this time. One of those three is the Toibin seat where the vote will split and do neither of them a favour.

IAMAMORON · 13-01-2020 2:01pm

They need to make the transition from targeting the local council estate issues to targeting the entire community. Unless they can attract the middle class vote they will never succeed. That is their newest obstacle. Their economic policies appear daunting, highly unworkable and possibly scary to wealthy Irish people. They are never going to achieve growth without appeasing these voters.

They can always and should always be targeting the civil service classes. That is what FF, FG and labour do so well. If Sinn Féin could dangle a big enough carrot on genuine deliverables like a better Health Service, especially one that could provide cheaper health insurance premiums, they get pricey. Offering genuine fiscal alternatives, Irish voters are not stupid either, they haven't gone away you know:P.

But the biggest mountain Sinn Fein have to climb in the republic is convincing FF, FG and Labour voters that they have some sort of a plan. Far left nonsense might appease a few council estates and some inner city types, but most of the country actually have jobs and are paying taxes and would like to see alternatives that are workable. SF just don't seem to have a bona fide offer here.

Apart from all that it never helps when their councilors end up in prison for waterboarding citizens over motorbikes deals which go wrong, ffs... please.

ghost of ireland past · 13-01-2020 2:08pm

In other countries the fastest growing parties are usually right wing and promote secure borders and low immigration. Those issues and stances have proved popular with voters.

All Irish political parties are too much like the Democrats in the US, offering all things to all people, and not much to natives.

Sinn Fein don't offer a compelling vision for Ireland but then none of the parties do.

Loafing Oaf · 13-01-2020 2:10pm

_Brian wrote: »

Aontu will make gains at the expense of both SF and FF.

Gains of seats? They'll have to make that 1% in the opinion polls goa long way...

As for SF, I think Mary Lou will have to go if they lose 5+ seats, as seems likely. Then they'll have to find a new policy direction, or a different tone at least, that will go down better among swing voters...

IAMAMORON · 13-01-2020 2:15pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Gains of seats? They'll have to make that 1% in the opinion polls goa long way...

As for SF, I think Mary Lou will have to go if they lose 5+ seats, as seems likely. Then they'll have to find a new policy direction, or a different tone at least, that will go down better among swing voters...

I don't honestly think Mary Lou is their problem. She is a very competent politician and I would hate to see her not involved in home politics. It took a lot of guts to do what she has done and I would hope she is not judged harshly if they have a poor election. Ireland needs people like Mary Lou in politics, she could make a great Taoiseach one day.

None of that is possible however until they take a hard look at themselves and see where they want to go and what sort of an offer they want to provide Ireland with.

But Mary Lou is not the problem , at all , they would be in much worse nick without her.

Fr_Dougal · 13-01-2020 2:18pm

mariaalice wrote: »

Not shouting up for SF, but no they haven't they have taken on those who feel they are marginalised ( whether they are marginalised is another question ).

Sounds like you are...

is_that_so · 13-01-2020 2:21pm

SF are in a quandary as their vote has slipped quite a bit. They lost nearly 80 council seats and saw their vote share slide by 1/3. Going towards the centre is logical but how to do it without alienating too many on the left is their problem.

flazio · 13-01-2020 2:21pm

decky1 wrote: »

Time to move on , maybe give them a chance and see if they live up to their promises, could they be any worse that previous elected , we can't just keep going around in circles with the same parties every few years and spent that time saying their no good , lets give them a chance.

Yeah, they can be worse, but they could be better. The fact is that we simply don't know.
Voting isn't like betting. The electorate need to know more about policies then just "not what the other crowd were doing"

JohnnyFlash · 13-01-2020 2:21pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I don't honestly think Mary Lou is their problem. She is a very competent politician and I would hate to see her not involved in home politics. It took a lot of guts to do what she has done and I would hope she is not judged harshly if they have a poor election. Ireland needs people like Mary Lou in politics, she could make a great Taoiseach one day.

None of that is possible however until they take a hard look at themselves and see where they want to go and what sort of an offer they want to provide Ireland with.

But Mary Lou is not the problem , at all , they would be in much worse nick without her.

The main problem for Mary Lou is she has a voice like a fücking foghorn.

Loafing Oaf · 13-01-2020 2:21pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I don't honestly think Mary Lou is their problem. She is a very competent politician and I would hate to see her not involved in home politics. It took a lot of guts to do what she has done and I would hope she is not judged harshly if they have a poor election. Ireland needs people like Mary Lou in politics, she could make a great Taoiseach one day.

None of that is possible however until they take a hard look at themselves and see where they want to go and what sort of an offer they want to provide Ireland with.

But Mary Lou is not the problem , at all , they would be in much worse nick without her.

Well she seemed almost machine-tooled as the SF leader to win over Middle Ireland but it doesn't seem to be happening and the party can't wait around forever for her to turn things around...

Bass Reeves · 13-01-2020 2:23pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I don't honestly think Mary Lou is their problem. She is a very competent politician and I would hate to see her not involved in home politics. It took a lot of guts to do what she has done and I would hope she is not judged harshly if they have a poor election. Ireland needs people like Mary Lou in politics, she could make a great Taoiseach one day.

None of that is possible however until they take a hard look at themselves and see where they want to go and what sort of an offer they want to provide Ireland with.

But Mary Lou is not the problem , at all , they would be in much worse nick without her.

I am not sure the country could survive 4years of listening to Mary Lou's shrill voice if she was Toiseach

IAMAMORON · 13-01-2020 2:29pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Well she seemed almost machine-tooled as the SF leader to win over Middle Ireland but it doesn't seem to be happening and the party can't wait around forever for her to turn things around...

She might be middle class, but it is the Sinn Féin strategists which need to decide how to attract them.

As I said they assume that middle class voters are somewhat wrong or greedy etc. This is lazy politics, Ireland doesn't have a genuine working class, not like ones on France, Germany or the UK. We have a class of cranking grunts who do nothing, we have a huge working " middle " class, who pay for everything and then we have the old money crew, who spend all their money on shight like tickets, wine, fags, beer, holidays and M&S casseroles. They are too busy to vote anyways.

As I said, until the Sinners can genuinely attract the genuine working " middle" class of Ireland they can't and won't grow.

Millionaire only not · 13-01-2020 2:31pm

mariaalice wrote: »

Mary Lou on RTE at the moment doing much better than Micheál Martin, however, they may fall off a cliff after this election?

The issue is they have a few very competent people who are heled back by being in SF and the rest of SF

Locally they attract a lot of chip on their shoulders and crank type supporters which does affect their vote and its possible the same in each constituency?.

N.I is different.

I’d say they were due to fall off that cliff! Leo and Flanagan threw them a life line last week !

Loafing Oaf · 13-01-2020 2:37pm

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

The main problem for Mary Lou is she has a voice like a fücking foghorn.

When you're pitching to fickle floating voters, I'm afraid stuff like this can genuinely make the difference...

marieholmfan · 13-01-2020 3:09pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I am not sure the country could survive 4years of listening to Mary Lou's shrill voice if she was Toiseach

As opposed to B B B B Bertie or Cowen the tedious bore or Squeaky Leo - Enda had a great voice but Enda is a gobsh...

Screechy voice is just a codeword for misogyny.

James Brown · 13-01-2020 3:17pm

They won't fall off a cliff.
They are lacking a spark, however I think it'll be another spread of votes with FF taking a marginal lead.
MM said he wouldn't deal with SF. I think both FF and FG have some neck in that regard.

Dyr · 13-01-2020 3:21pm

Mad_maxx wrote: »

O Broin championing Margaret Cash went down like a led balloon as well

They've lost their identity a little

Ironic given their embrace of identity politics.

Magaret Cash and a dozen other virtue signalling faux pas will cost them. But the Greybeards who've run things up to now might actually be too old to ditch O'Broin and the other champagne socialists as a beaten docket. Democratic Left part deux.

Republicanism has always been prone to being enamoured by whatever new wackiness is en vogue on the far left. Their only hope is people still dislike FFFG enough and still consider them a viable alternative

Loafing Oaf · 13-01-2020 4:34pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

As I said, until the Sinners can genuinely attract the genuine working " middle" class of Ireland they can't and won't grow.

Maybe if they repented:P

James Brown · 13-01-2020 4:44pm

All left leaning parties need to be seen to stand for the working tax payer, quality for money on our tax spends and rewarding the taxpayer.
The spin is SF and the like are all about dole spongers and foreva homes, (ironically a better deal than leasing off vulture funds) etc. The irony being any issues anyone can point to are firmly on FF/FG.

I think SF would be more for the average working tax payer than the FG spin would suggest.

IAMAMORON · 13-01-2020 4:44pm

Millionaire only not wrote: »

I’d say they were due to fall off that cliff! Leo and Flanagan threw them a life line last week !

It amazes me how people have not read through this nonsense at this stage?

As long as people are bitching about Fine Gael liberalism and their indifference to civil war politics, the less likely people are going to concentrate on the genuine issues at large in 2020.

The PR squad in FG are more than happy for people to gripe about the blueshirts and supporting the Tans.... as long as they are not considering the real issues such as homelessness, an economy potentially entering a recession, the childrens' hospital and in particular to last week, the HSE queues …

If you ask me the whole commemoration rubbish is a massive red herring in the grand scheme of things and has been dumped into the spotlight to get people off the real issues.

Dyr · 13-01-2020 4:58pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

It amazes me how people have not read through this nonsense at this stage?

As long as people are bitching about Fine Gael liberalism and their indifference to civil war politics, the less likely people are going to concentrate on the genuine issues at large in 2020.

The PR squad in FG are more than happy for people to gripe about the blueshirts and supporting the Tans.... as long as they are not considering the real issues such as homelessness, an economy potentially entering a recession, the childrens' hospital and in particular to last week, the HSE queues …

If you ask me the whole commemoration rubbish is a massive red herring in the grand scheme of things and has been dumped into the spotlight to get people off the real issues.

FGs evil plan is to have people not vote for them because of the Tan War (2020 edition) rather than not vote for them because of housing and health?

Sounds like a swiss watch of a plan...

Patser · 13-01-2020 5:00pm

SF do have a big positional issue at the moment.

15 years ago, when they were on the up and up, they occupied an area of politics to the left of even Labour, and were able to make big gains with populist promises as they knew they would not be in power, and have to deliver on them.

When they hit about 15% in elections, becoming effectively the 3rd largest party and therefore a possible coalition partner, they stalled. As such they had to row back on the populism- which would be both undeliverable and but also to appeal to the middle ground voter to push them over that 15% threshold.

This left them exposed to the new Left pop up populist groups: like Paul Murphy, Boyd-Barrett etc - who were able to steal their schtick in appealing to 'working class' voters and cut into their votes from the left, while they also failed to make gains in the centre where other groups like the SDs popped up.

This election is still a big chance for SF to do something I feel. The economic recovery (and frequent splits) has taken a lot of wind out of the likes of Solidarity, PBP etc, while Labour are a charisma black hole and the SDs losing Stephen Donnelly was a massive blow to their credentials. So on one hand SF have a bit of an open field to the left again.

But they are making little headway. All debate seems to be about FG vs FF, both can lay claim to the recovery while SF still can't seem to get through that armour, and instead seem to have a bit of infighting and doubts. That said in an election campaign anything can happen - one good debate or a pledge that resonates can swing things a lot.

James Brown · 13-01-2020 5:01pm

The Tan commemoration was simple arrogance. Not related to the election or anything else. Arrogance.

What will happen to sinn fein after this election.

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