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Aussie dollar falling

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    #332
    colman1212
    Registered Users Posts: 1,127 ✭✭✭colman1212


    I've always used ozforex for transferring cash, everyone seems to be using currency fair. What am I missing?


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    #333
    bladebrew
    Registered Users Posts: 1,673 ✭✭✭bladebrew


    colman1212 wrote: »
    I've always used ozforex for transferring cash, everyone seems to be using currency fair. What am I missing?
    What do ozforex charge to do a transfer? Currency fair charged me $4 to send a few thousand dollars to Australia, and I think it's €3 to transfer a few thousand back into an Irish account,
    Their rate is miles better than the bank aswell, Currency fair at 1.47 for AUD from EUR and Bank of Ireland is at 1.42
    I will recommend them to everyone going abroad!


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    #334
    Legend100
    Registered Users Posts: 736 ✭✭✭Legend100


    Correct me if I am wrong but isn't there a minimum transfer of $2k with ozforex? this isnt the case with currencyfair


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    #335
    bladebrew
    Registered Users Posts: 1,673 ✭✭✭bladebrew


    Currency up to .6745 now! The highest I have seen it in a while, I need my money now I'm back in Ireland so I transferred at .6702 last night!


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    #336
    res ipsa
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭res ipsa


    bladebrew wrote: »
    Currency up to .6745 now! The highest I have seen it in a while, I need my money now I'm back in Ireland so I transferred at .6702 last night!

    Got some away at.6749 at close of trade on currency fair.


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    #337
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    Just hit .68, no idea how long this upswing will last but hopefully it will be around when I eventually cash out my super.


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    #338
    massdebater
    Registered Users Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭massdebater


    catbear wrote: »
    Just hit .68, no idea how long this upswing will last but hopefully it will be around when I eventually cash out my super.

    €1100 now that I missed out on by transferring a few weeks ago.

    puke.jpg


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    #339
    Legend100
    Registered Users Posts: 736 ✭✭✭Legend100


    article on smh today saying it could reach 97 cent against the USD before the end of the year

    ......last month they were saying it would be 85/86 cent this year

    would they ever make their minds up!!!

    (the EUR seems to react the same as the USD - not sure why and would love for someone in the know to explain it to me!!!)


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    #340
    res ipsa
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭res ipsa


    The AED & USD are pegged. The EUR and USD are not. If they move together its coincidence.
    Hope that helps.


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    #341
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    What's an AED?


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    #342
    res ipsa
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭res ipsa


    catbear wrote: »
    What's an AED?

    Emirati Dirham. Dubai or Abu Dhabi money.


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    #343
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    Euro looks like might get cheaper...
    Mario Draghi, the bank's president, said a stronger euro would act as a trigger to looser monetary policy.

    The rise of the single currency's exchange rate is one of the main reasons eurozone inflation is at a dangerously low 0.5%.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27008293


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    #344
    the flananator
    Registered Users Posts: 1,431 ✭✭✭the flananator


    Predictions for the Aussie Dollar seems to change week to week. Now they're saying it will be back down again by June.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/currencies/australian-dollar-strength-expected-to-wane-20140416-36qgj.html


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    #345
    colman1212
    Registered Users Posts: 1,127 ✭✭✭colman1212


    Legend100 wrote: »
    article on smh today saying it could reach 97 cent against the USD before the end of the year

    Westpac is forecasting it will fall to US 91 cents by June, while NAB is predicting it will plunge to US 84 cents by the end of the year.

    who knows...... seems to change from week to week.
    Chinese manufacturing data has gotten worse the last 3 months in a row. If it continues like that you would expect the dollar to continue to drop as the aussie economy is heavily dependent on china as they buy all the raw materials from the mines.


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    #346
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    It also means the the Chinese government will be forced add stimulus to the economy in an effort to shore up growth. Strangely bad PMI numbers from China will only add to that speculation and will drive buying of the AUD...


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    #347
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    As has been mentioned, the big thing to watch out for though in terms of AUDEUR is inflation numbers in the eurozone. There is a huge danger Europe could enter a period of deflation ala Japan. The World bank and the IMF have been flagging this for a while but up until recently have been ignored as the mindset is more Germanic and they are worried about inflation. If inflation numbers drop again then the ECB will probably act with an asset buying program which will mean weaker euro and thus a stronger AUD.

    Delflation can destory an economy so if the ECB decide to act they will go in hard imo.


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    #348
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,691 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    "Hard' isn't in the ECBs dictionary. Too-little-too-late occupies that spot. Or was it vacillate? I'll have to go check my copy.


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    #349
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0424/610647-ecb-euro/
    Euro QE looks more likely.


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    #350
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    $1aus =€.68


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    #351
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    QE set to start next month it seems. Euro will be weakening id say.
    DYOR

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/08/us-ecb-rates-idUSBREA4614O20140508


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    #352
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    $1 AUD = 0.685 and creeping up.
    I would be very surprised if it did not break the .70 mark soon.

    http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0514/617258-ecb-policy-options/


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    #353
    the flananator
    Registered Users Posts: 1,431 ✭✭✭the flananator


    Dropping back down towards .67

    Is further Euro weakening likely to counterbalance this?


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    #354
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    Good question. Euro could weaken but then more bad news our of China could drop the Aus$. On the other hand more bad news out of China could strengthen the Aus$ as a safe haven for Chinese cash via 8888 visas.

    A downturn in China could hasten a Euro drop as it's a major market for German goods and the Euro area.

    I'll check the chicken entrails in the morning and get back to you.


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    #355
    sin_city
    Registered Users Posts: 899 ✭✭✭sin_city


    jank wrote: »
    Delflation can destory an economy so if the ECB decide to act they will go in hard imo.

    Like what happens in electronics products? Prices going down? Damn...I hate that. People don't wait for prices to go down, they just buy when they want something...if this wasn't true everyone would be saving instead of using credit cards.

    Deflation is good for people who are struggling but bad for banks and government.

    If 2% inflation is good then why is 3% inflation and 1% inflation bad?

    As the people in power act in the interests of the politicians and the banks expect Europe to print to keep up with everyone else that is printing.
    So in a few months I expect the AUD to pass .70 in euros and maybe go even higher.

    As if this is the answer…just look at the economy of NZ…they are booming and they raised interest rates.


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    #356
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    Deflation for an economy can be deadly. Just have a read about japan and it's last two decades of no growth. Sure for the consumer short term it's great until businesses start to suffer as more and more people keep their hands in their own pocket. Once there is a deflationary mindset in an economy it is extremely hard to break it.


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    #357
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    sin_city wrote: »

    As if this is the answer…just look at the economy of NZ…they are booming and they raised interest rates.
    If anything I think the RBA will drop interests in the coming year, there's a lot of unwind with mining coming off and China cooling. Personally a strong $ would suit me so I'd prefer if your forecast came through although I'm inclined to think otherwise.


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    #358
    sin_city
    Registered Users Posts: 899 ✭✭✭sin_city


    catbear wrote: »
    If anything I think the RBA will drop interests in the coming year, there's a lot of unwind with mining coming off and China cooling. Personally a strong $ would suit me so I'd prefer if your forecast came through although I'm inclined to think otherwise.

    You could be right but the question for us is when will Europe play their card in the race to the bottom.

    If the ECB decides to print money then the euro will devalue and even if the RBA reduces I don't know if it will be enough to prevent the dollar from staying strong.

    I don't think the RBA will reduce as there is a risk of a housing bubble here now and this has been acknowledged.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-26/rba-warns-banks-not-to-fuel-real-estate-bubble/5346342

    jank wrote: »
    Deflation for an economy can be deadly. Just have a read about japan and it's last two decades of no growth. Sure for the consumer short term it's great until businesses start to suffer as more and more people keep their hands in their own pocket. Once there is a deflationary mindset in an economy it is extremely hard to break it.


    One of the fallacies of modern day economics...Rising prices on foods(which people need not want) means people have less money to spend on luxury goods.

    Once someone defines why 2% inflation is good and why 1% and 5% is bad I'll accept your point.

    No one would own a mobile phone if what you were saying was true...we'd keep waiting for the price to go down....which it does.


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    #359
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    cartoon-first-ecoomist.gif

    I'll stick with sticking my finger in the air.


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    #360
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    Aus$ strengthening again; recently read that LNG exports will support strong dollar. Will post link later. Bad for exporters and no replacement for the mining investment boom which is receding.

    Edit to add: http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/lng-to-drive-australian-dollar-back-to-parity/


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    #361
    SpaceTime
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,088 ✭✭✭SpaceTime


    The one thing to be aware of though is that the Euro is a HUGE currency compared to the Aus$ or even the Japanese Yen.
    A QE programme might not necessarily have as big an impact on the value of the Euro as you'd expect due to the fact that it's still a major reserve currency.

    You really have to compare it to what's been going on with the US$ more than with smaller currencies.

    The other issue is that the ECB's actually completely hamstrung by the body of law that set it up. It doesn't actually have a lot of scope to do QE at all. It's not as flexible as a normal central bank due to various rules put in place when it was created.

    You could see the Eurozone heading for weird combination internal deflation without currency depreciation which could just seem unemployment go up, standards of living slipping and more angry voters electing extreme parties on the continent.

    My big concern is that if EU politicians don't react to this mess and do something sensible for a change, they'll be facing up to a lot of very angry voters. They seem to have forgotten they're in a democracy and that people will only put up with so much before firing them.

    I hope they got the message from the European and Local elections that they need to change direction.


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