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Novelty/Special Bet (Politics) EU-Sweden: Election: 9th Sep ’18. SD (most seats @2.5)

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  • 06-09-2018 9:05pm
    #1
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭


    Most (not all) polls - indicate the 'SD' (Sweden Democrats - not to be confused with the 'S' Social Demoncrats), are very close 2nd currently, for most seats.

    One smaller more recent poll indicates they may have a lead.

    Suggest there may be some potential value in backing the SD, only at the (current live best price of 2.5).

    st9lHxb.png

    There are plenty of factors for and against their likely performance, and it will be a close result, but reckon they could just nudge ahead for most seats.

    Recommend as it's a low price, only small stakes and as a line selection on a safe (short) batch on an accumulator i.e. 4 from 5, or 5 from 7 etc Thereby allowing one line selection to void and still see a return.

    Event occurs on Sunday 9th Sept.
    Tagged:


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    #2
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Price just dropped to 2.4 at 21:15, hold out for 2.5 (or use exchanges perhaps).


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    #3
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Still a 50:50 type event, and price has some very slight further price shortening.

    qGyvsmY.png

    Interesting to note the Sweden Democrats remained the largest party in the final poll by YouGov ahead of this Sunday’s Swedish election.

    Here are the results of the YouGov poll of 1,511 interviews on Aug. 30-Sept. 1:

    Sweden Democrats (SD) 24.8% vs 24.2%
    Social Democrats (S) 23.8% vs 21.9%

    There really isn't much value in backing 'S' unless the price of 1.44 is an attraction.
    Still, could be an 'offset option' if building a risk reduction mixed treble by the way of this weekends two stars of tennis:
    ND & SW + (S) = 2.85, or go to town with Fitz (R3) to win in live European Golf, for the 4fold = 4.7

    Needless to say live markets (if available) are where the real value is, Trump actually peaked @10 on election night.


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    #4
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Market drift this evening 2.75.

    Either that means it's extra value
    / or that there is an expression of opionon from the streets of Swed received upon the world news media, currently there which isn't supportive of SD.
    But if there is to be a protest vote towards the SD, it will most likely be of a silent pencil mark type, so not highly relevant.

    Of course there is very little chance of SD forming a gov (though not impossible).
    As such the related market for next country to leave (A50) has Sweden at 9.0 or 11.
    Italy is most likely as of now 3.0, followed by Greece 5.0

    Naturally if you opposed this 'leave next' market you can perform a 'lay bet' operation via an exchange (not regular bet type).
    This isn't a normal bet, but acts like one, but carries much, much greater leverage risk so not of interest.


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    #5
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Market still erratic with implied chances for SD to take most seats somewhere around 36%, so price at 2.75 fairly accurate.
    A few months ago it was much higher at 60%.

    Still not an easy call either way, and will be interesting anyway to see the results (due out over Sunday night and into Mon morning).

    uAlP6q7.png


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    #6
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    .


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    #7
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    99% of votes counted and the SD didn't perform as well as expected with only 17.6%.
    Polls were actually very close to this estimating 18%c.
    Note also, just last month the same polls had them at stalemate.

    The benchmark with another bookie yesterday was 23.5% (just unders evens for +/-) this, and price for majority were as low as 2.25 during the last week. Somewhat cautionary odds.

    It leaves Swe in a tricky situation on the L-R gauge.

    zYETVAf.png

    With 62 seats a gain of +13, the SD will have some influence whether it's recognised or not.


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    #8
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,694 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Lawson Slow Accident wrote: »
    99% of votes counted and the SD didn't perform as well as expected with only 17.6%.
    Polls were actually very close to this estimating 18%c.
    Note also, just last month the same polls had them at stalemate.

    The benchmark with another bookie yesterday was 23.5% (just unders evens for +/-) this, and price for majority were as low as 2.25 during the last week. Somewhat cautionary odds.

    It leaves Swe in a tricky situation on the L-R gauge.

    zYETVAf.png

    With 62 seats a gain of +13, the SD will have some influence whether it's recognised or not.

    They failed.


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    #9
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    listermint wrote: »
    They failed.

    Well they didn't get the most seats, had it of taken place in August they might well have done, the polls of polls had them in that position, possibly after 100 or so cars went up in flames.

    But they gained +13 seats, and the (S) party lost -12 so technically they still gained, not failed (in the wider sense).

    Will be interesting to see what another 4yrs brings.


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