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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

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    #92
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,887 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    My thoughts before the 12zs come out is that there's a clear nudge West by the gfs since this time yesterday. I'm very surprised the Met didn't wait until this evening to do a warning. If the ecm moves more towards gfs then let's be clear there is no storm!

    We'll know a good bit more by tonight but the trend this morning is West and away from our shores


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    #93
    goat2
    Registered Users Posts: 4,939 ✭✭✭goat2


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    My thoughts before the 12zs come out is that there's a clear nudge West by the gfs since this time yesterday. I'm very surprised the Met didn't wait until this evening to do a warning. If the ecm moves more towards gfs then let's be clear there is no storm!

    We'll know a good bit more by tonight but the trend this morning is West and away from our shores


    hoping not to lose some of my roof again this Monday as happened a few yrs ago, when MT warned us, trees came down also, missing the home, but have kept things at safe height since


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    #94
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    12Z Early guidance out. 96-108 hours is what we're looking at.

    aal17_2017101212_intensity_early.png

    Seems like a westward shift in track compared to the official track (red).

    aal17_2017101212_track_early.png[img][/img]


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    #95
    fraxinus1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 240 ✭✭fraxinus1


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    My thoughts before the 12zs come out is that there's a clear nudge West by the gfs since this time yesterday. I'm very surprised the Met didn't wait until this evening to do a warning. If the ecm moves more towards gfs then let's be clear there is no storm!

    We'll know a good bit more by tonight but the trend this morning is West and away from our shores

    That's good to hear. I was going to ask a neighbour to have a look at the shed roof but no need to. I hope Met Eilean feel silly now with their hype about high impact weather. Meet a neighbour earlier and it was all talk about a big storm. I told him the word is it will stay out to sea to the west.


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    #96
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Oh for fcuks sake
    Met Éireann have only issued a yellow and only said theyre watching it
    That it has the potential to be high impact etc

    Often criticized here for no mention of uncertainty’s
    You guys,a lot of you guys are never happy


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    #97
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    fraxinus1 wrote: »
    That's good to hear. I was going to ask a neighbour to have a look at the shed roof but no need to. I hope Met Eilean feel silly now with their hype about high impact weather. Meet a neighbour earlier and it was all talk about a big storm. I told him the word is it will stay out to sea to the west.

    Seriously???????


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    #98
    Bsal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,767 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Met office latest forecast

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGThwsLopXY


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    #99
    star gazer
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,706 Mod ✭✭✭✭star gazer


    Wind speed up a bit, pressure down and track similar, not much change forecast for the next two days or so.
    ...OPHELIA MEANDERING SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...
    ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    LOCATION...30.5N 35.6W
    ABOUT 715 MI...1145 KM SW OF THE AZORES
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
    NHC advisory 14
    It's still too early to predict the exact impact Ophelia will have on Ireland, but it's important to at least be aware of the potential danger.
    For those interested in the way the US National Hurricane Centre deals with uncertainty in their track forecast cone

    Ophelia Water vapour image. Yellow is drier air.
    wv0.gif


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    #100
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 12/0900Z 30.3N 35.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
    12H 12/1800Z 30.7N 35.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
    24H 13/0600Z 31.3N 34.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
    36H 13/1800Z 32.2N 32.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
    48H 14/0600Z 33.7N 28.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
    72H 15/0600Z 38.5N 20.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
    96H 16/0600Z 49.0N 13.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 17/0600Z 59.0N 7.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


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    #101
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    430406.png


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    #102
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,347 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The NHC official track is placed slightly east of the GFS and the midpoint of the positions is 54.0 N 10.3 W which is basically just off Belmullet, so their track places west coast in the path of strongest winds which can be expected to occur 50-100 miles east of the track.

    My suggestion would be that the earliest that we would go to a level 2 here is Saturday 10 a.m. and for a level 3 there would have to be consensus for 140 km/hr gusts at 24h.

    Neither of those steps may be required and if the outlook becomes less threatening then the thread title will be edited to something more reflective of the situation. For now I am confortable with the phrase "threatens a high impact windstorm" because that is verbatim what the NHC track implies.


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    #103
    fraxinus1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 240 ✭✭fraxinus1


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Seriously???????

    Folk on here saying it will stay out west.


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    #104
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    fraxinus1 wrote: »
    That's good to hear. I was going to ask a neighbour to have a look at the shed roof but no need to. I hope Met Eilean feel silly now with their hype about high impact weather. Meet a neighbour earlier and it was all talk about a big storm. I told him the word is it will stay out to sea to the west.

    Quite a silly comment. It's Thursday pm. No doubt there'll be upgrades and downgrades until Monday.

    A yellow warning with potential to upgrade is sensible at this stage. 'Met Eilean'???


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    #105
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Not often we get a mention by the NHC.
    Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 14
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
    1100 AM AST Thu Oct 12 2017

    Ophelia's satellite presentation consists of a distinct eye in infrared imagery surrounded by a ring of cloud tops of -50C to -70C. The initial intensity of 80 kt is based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates, which range from 77 to 95 kt. Little change in intensity is expected during the next 48 hours, as Ophelia will remain over SSTs of 25-26C and in a low to moderate shear environment. After that time, the cyclone should begin extratropical transition as it interacts with a potent mid-latitude trough moving eastward across the north Atlantic. This baroclinic interaction should maintain Ophelia at hurricane intensity through 96 hours, with slow weakening expected after that time as the extratropical cyclone occludes.

    Ophelia has moved little since the last advisory, with the cyclone currently situated south of the mid-latitude westerlies. The initial motion estimate is a slow north-northeastward drift at around 2 kt. A steadier northeastward motion should begin by 12 h when the aforementioned upper-level trough begins to exert influence on Ophelia's motion. An east-northeastward acceleration is expected at 24 through 48 h, followed by a turn back to the northeast and north-northeast at days 3 through 5 as Ophelia interacts with the southern portion of the trough. Through the first 48 hours, the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Later in the forecast period, there remains a fair bit of east/west spread in the track of Ophelia near Ireland and the United Kingdom, which isn't usual at these time ranges. The NHC forecast at these times is similar to the previous one and lies on the right side of the deterministic guidance envelope but is near the middle of the ECMWF, UKMET and GEFS ensemble members. Regardless of the exact track, post-tropical Ophelia is likely to bring some impacts to Ireland and the United Kingdom as a powerful extratropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days.

    While the track guidance keeps the center of Ophelia east of the Azores, a tropical storm watch or warning could be needed for the eastern Azores later today or tonight because of the expected increase in the size of the tropical-storm-force winds in the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone.

    KEY MESSAGES:

    1. Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas, as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts. Residents in Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of Ophelia for the next several days. For more information on local impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 12/1500Z 30.5N 35.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
    12H 13/0000Z 30.9N 34.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
    24H 13/1200Z 31.6N 33.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
    36H 14/0000Z 32.7N 30.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
    48H 14/1200Z 34.4N 27.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
    72H 15/1200Z 40.9N 18.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
    96H 16/1200Z 51.0N 12.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 17/1200Z 60.5N 5.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


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    #106
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,983 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Head of forecasting, Gerald Fleming, says at this stage it's difficult to gauge how the storm will play out.

    "We're looking at the possibility of stormy weather coming our way early next week - Sunday night, Monday, maybe even into Tuesday morning - with the remnants of a hurricane or tropical storm Ophelia wrapped up in it.

    "At the moment, because it's four days away, there are a lot of possibilities as to how this might evolve, we are anxious to keep an eye on it.

    "But be aware, this could be a complete non-event, or it could be a severe event."

    Breakingnews.ie


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    #107
    FutureGuy
    Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 15,228 Mod ✭✭✭✭FutureGuy


    As someone who only ever uses the forum to see if his parents house is going to be ok, can someone break it down please.

    If the worst possible scenario plays out and the storm hits us, would it be worse than Desmond in 2014?


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    #108
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Latest wind analysis, showing max winds 69-knots 33 nautical miles southeast of the centre.

    2017AL17_MPSATWND_201710121500_SWHR.GIF


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    #109
    De Bild
    Closed Accounts Posts: 284 ✭✭De Bild


    fraxinus1 wrote: »
    You know perfectly well that's a typo you pompous git

    No i didn't. I thought you were laughing at Met Eireann. Look i'm not going to engage in childish name calling. You probably need to step back from the forum for a few hours.


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    #110
    coillsaille
    Registered Users Posts: 526 ✭✭✭coillsaille


    FutureGuy wrote: »
    As someone who only ever uses the forum to see if his parents house is going to be ok, can someone break it down please.

    If the worst possible scenario plays out and the storm hits us, would it be worse than Desmond in 2014?

    What part of the country is the house in?


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    #111
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    fraxinus1 wrote: »
    You know perfectly well that's a typo you pompous git

    Like De Bild i felt you were belittling Met Eireann.

    I agree with him. Take a break for a few hours.

    You're the guy had a 2wk meltdown when FI 'snow' never transpired last January.


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    #112
    FutureGuy
    Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 15,228 Mod ✭✭✭✭FutureGuy


    coillsaille wrote: »
    What part of the country is the house in?

    Near Charleville on the Cork/Limerick border. Sorry, that would have been useful information.


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    #113
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,114 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    FutureGuy wrote: »
    Near Charleville on the Cork/Limerick border. Sorry, that would have been useful information.

    That's quite far inland, is there any reason in particular that the house would be more at risk that other dwellings in the area?


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    #114
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,887 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Bullseye for Ireland on ukmo


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    #115
    dacogawa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,837 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    31462392.jpg

    I'm sure we'll know how it's going to pan out by this time tomorrow, I think it'll pull west, the ECM should be a good guide which is out in a short time...


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    #116
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,121 ✭✭✭pad199207


    GFS looks further West this evening, however the UKMO shows all yee coastal dwellers may move inland!


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    #117
    FutureGuy
    Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 15,228 Mod ✭✭✭✭FutureGuy


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    That's quite far inland, is there any reason in particular that the house would be more at risk that other dwellings in the area?

    Our land survived everything for 30 years, but Desmond broke 5 large trees. Hence my need to gauge it. My dad is elderly so will need help to make sure things are well in place before the weekend.


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    #118
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    12Z SHIPS output showing the storm moving at around 31-32 knots around 120 km or so from land at 12Z Monday. Max sustained winds 49 knots.

    430411.png


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    #119
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,114 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    FutureGuy wrote: »
    Our land survived everything for 30 years, but Desmond broke 5 large trees. Hence my need to gauge it. My dad is elderly so will need help to make sure things are well in place before the weekend.

    Alot of that type of damage seems to come from years worth of wind events and can often depend on the direction.

    From a West Clare perspective, storm desmond caused near no damage in comparison to the great storm of Wednesday 2014.


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    #120
    coillsaille
    Registered Users Posts: 526 ✭✭✭coillsaille


    FutureGuy wrote: »
    Our land survived everything for 30 years, but Desmond broke 5 large trees. Hence my need to gauge it. My dad is elderly so will need help to make sure things are well in place before the weekend.

    I'm no expert but I reckon all you can do at the moment is keep monitoring this thread and Met E. It will be late Saturday I'd say before things are closer to being certain. But you may have to make the call on your parents' place before then based on the info available at the time.


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    #121
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Pinch of salt
    iconeu_uk1-11-96-0_fwf1.png


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