Cold Spell Late Feb/ Early March Technical Discussion only MOD NOTE POST #1

The last time we had easterly snow, it was very educational to watch how a narrow band of heavy snow meandered up and down the east coast as the wind direction changed by just a degree or two, and the Isle of Man streamer moved accordingly. There was and is no way to give wind forecasts to the degree of accuracy that would be needed to allow people to know where was going to be affected, as an example, the intensity of the snow in the streamers meant that the airport was massively affected if the streamer was over them, and not at all troubled if it moved literally a mile north or south.

In the same way this last week, when the snow first started, we had next to nothing in Ashbourne, as the Isle of Man shadow meant the streamers came on shore south of us, if the wind had been just a bit more east than north, we'd have had a lot more snow in the early stages of the event. That can't be forecast with the precision that would mean the difference between a yellow or red alert, so the only option is to say that a wider area is at red risk.

The same applies to geographical areas local to the Wicklow mountains, and other high ground, a few miles can make a huge difference, but the next day, a few degrees wind shift will change the areas affected, or not affected, and that's without other changes in the structure and temperatures of the air masses causing the weather.

With each weather event that happens, the historic data enlarges, so the models (in theory) have more history to draw on and refine the results, but even then, we have to recognise that minute variations of a huge number of possible parameters can mean that today's results will not be the same as they were the last time there were similar parameters.

The Met office have to then make a call based on all the information they have to hand, and based on the possible variances that may occur, and they have to do it with enough lead time to allow affected parties to respond accordingly. A Red alert 1 hour before massive snow fall will occur is too late, a red alert 4 days before the event is too early, and transport and distribution organisations realistically need at least 24 hours notice in order to put appropriate close down or modification plans into place.

OK, some of the country didn't get the worst possible scenario, but the forecast was indicating that there was the strong possibility of needing it, and the balance of probability was that it would happen. Be glad it didn't, rather than beating up on the relevant decision makers, their main priority was public safety, and for most of the country, they got it right. The very low death toll and lack of massive pressure on already stretched emergency services was a huge benefit of the way the situation was managed.

We only get to see what the media chooses to report from the "public coverage" of things like the Emergency response meetings, we don't get to know about the many minor detail decisions made to ensure food got out of storage locations, or power was restored to water treatment plants, or critical staff were moved by civil defence, or put into hotels because they couldn't get home, or all of the other issues that affected every aspect of life for a few days.

I'm also sure that once things are back to normal, all concerned will look at how it worked out, and next time round, the plan will be better, or if not better, it will have been tweaked a little where needed to improve the end result.

If people are not happy with how it all worked out, complaining on the net won't change it, making positive suggestions on how to improve the plan to the relevant people may mean a better outcome next time round.