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Recession predictions

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    #152
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    bilbot79 wrote: »
    Actually....

    'A group of swans, also once game birds, is a wedge when they're in flight, likely because of the shape a group of swans takes in flight. And while we can call a group of swans a bevy, a herd, a game, or a flight, they can only be a bank when they're on the ground.'

    I did check this.

    herd just had the right phonetic ring to it.

    flock was like, fock no.


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    #153
    Roberto_gas
    Registered Users Posts: 3,935 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    World economy is in recession since last quarter of 2019...corona will just stamp that !


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    #154
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,805 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Maybe now we ll see some much needed radical changes and differing approaches from major institutions globally, such as helicopter money and debt forgiveness, which probably should have been done during the previous recession


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    #155
    Zenify
    Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    Maybe now we ll see some much needed radical changes and differing approaches from major institutions globally, such as helicopter money and debt forgiveness, which probably should have been done during the previous recession

    Hopefully not. That sort of stuff got us here. Hopefully now we will see prudent lending and business practices.


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    #156
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,805 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Zenify wrote: »
    Hopefully not. That sort of stuff got us here. Hopefully now we will see prudent lending and business practices.

    helicopter money hasnt been tried on a major level yet, this is whats called qe for the people, not the qe that has been done to date, which truly has just inflated asset markets. im just after receiving a phone call from a business owner whos now in panic mode, they virtually have no buffer, this which i suspect is common in many sectors, they agreed that helicopter money might just keep some businesses afloat. this is very radical thinking, but our not so radical institutions such as central banks arent exactly open to this kind of thinking. its interesting to hear countries such as hong kong have already done this, with other countries considering it


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    #157
    andrew
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 3,368 Mod ✭✭✭✭andrew


    Would anyone like to predict some GDP figures? Irish Q1 GDP? Looks like most economies are shaping up for some truly massive QoQ declines.


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    #158
    Thespoofer
    Registered Users Posts: 1,051 ✭✭✭Thespoofer


    What do ye guys think about the possibility of a 'bail in' happening in the near future?
    For me it seems all the conditions are there,

    - huge sums of money being pumped to keep economies going ( who is going to pay for this? )

    -at present huge sums of money on deposit in people's bank accounts

    - 'bail in' legislation brought in a few years ago

    Seems to me it could go like Cyprus ( remember that) where basically people had thousands on deposit wiped out.

    Would like to hear yer opinion as I'm a bit of a tin foil hat if I'm being honest.


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    #159
    Zenify
    Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    Thespoofer wrote: »
    What do ye guys think about the possibility of a 'bail in' happening in the near future?
    For me it seems all the conditions are there,

    - huge sums of money being pumped to keep economies going ( who is going to pay for this? )

    -at present huge sums of money on deposit in people's bank accounts

    - 'bail in' legislation brought in a few years ago

    Seems to me it could go like Cyprus ( remember that) where basically people had thousands on deposit wiped out.

    Would like to hear yer opinion as I'm a bit of a tin foil hat if I'm being honest.

    All money in banks is guaranteed by the irish state to100k. Cant take money that they guarantee themselves?


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    #160
    Thespoofer
    Registered Users Posts: 1,051 ✭✭✭Thespoofer


    Zenify wrote: »
    All money in banks is guaranteed by the irish state to100k. Cant take money that they guarantee themselves?

    So would I be right in saying that anything above 100k could be taken by government? ( genuine question)


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    #161
    Zenify
    Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    Thespoofer wrote: »
    So would I be right in saying that anything above 100k could be taken by government? ( genuine question)

    By the bank in a situation where it fails, yes. Very unlikely, if we didnt let it happen after 2008 I doubt we will now. I do think this will be worse than 2008. But money in banks is secure. The damage to trust would be irreversible. We would never trust banks again. The EU would never allow it because of the damage to trust across the continent.


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    #162
    KyussB
    Registered Users Posts: 2,314 ✭✭✭KyussB


    Yes there will be bail-ins. Early indications are that countries like Germany/Netherlands have already nixed any hope of Eurobonds or similar EU-level funding to assist with the crisis (prompting furious reactions from Spain/Italy) - there will only be the currently existing options, which will be coupled with austerity policies as a conditiion.

    We're in for a repeat of the Euro crisis, fitting a similar pattern to the last recession - with many eurozone countries already in very bad shape economcally - with an even greater risk of the Euro imploding, from countries reverting to national currencies, than before.

    It's not looking good at all. No lessons were learned from the last recession.


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    #163
    Tea drinker
    Registered Users Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭Tea drinker


    Zenify wrote: »
    All money in banks is guaranteed by the irish state to100k. Cant take money that they guarantee themselves?
    Wouldn't be surprised if they took the cash and issued a 10 year...guaranteed bond in it's place.


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    #164
    Geuze
    Registered Users Posts: 13,072 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    March HICP data published today by Eurostat

    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10294628/2-17042020-AP-EN.pdf/3229e469-7748-a31e-c3e8-60949cea7641

    Inflation dropped from 1.2% in Feb to 0.7% in March, in the euro area.

    1.6% to 1.2% in the EU.


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    #165
    Roger the cabin boy
    Registered Users Posts: 365 ✭✭Roger the cabin boy


    Prediction?

    Economic Armageddon the likes of which most people born after the wars have never seen.

    It's going to be very very tough


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    #166
    Geuze
    Registered Users Posts: 13,072 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    andrew wrote: »
    Would anyone like to predict some GDP figures? Irish Q1 GDP? Looks like most economies are shaping up for some truly massive QoQ declines.

    US Q1 first estimate of GDP published today

    https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-advance-estimate


    Real GDP down 4.8% at an annual rate

    Nominal GDP down 3.5%


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    #167
    Geuze
    Registered Users Posts: 13,072 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Geuze wrote: »
    US Q1 first estimate of GDP published today

    https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-advance-estimate


    Real GDP down 4.8% at an annual rate

    Nominal GDP down 3.5%


    Discussion of 40% drop in US GDP in 2020:Q2.

    http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/04/economy-in-a-nose-dive

    https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335


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    #168
    Geuze
    Registered Users Posts: 13,072 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    European Commission forecasts:

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_799

    Euro area = -7.75% fall in GDP in 2020

    Inflation to disappear.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/api/files/document/print/en/ip_20_799/IP_20_799_EN.pdf


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    #169
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0505/1136606-exchequer-figures/

    The Exchequer recorded a deficit of €7.473 billion in April, more than double the deficit of €3.192bn recorded in April of last year.

    Just the start of it.


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    #170
    Roger the cabin boy
    Registered Users Posts: 365 ✭✭Roger the cabin boy


    Snow Garden wrote: »
    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0505/1136606-exchequer-figures/




    Just the start of it.

    Indeed...


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    #171
    Geuze
    Registered Users Posts: 13,072 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    CPI published today, for April 2020.

    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/cpi/consumerpriceindexapril2020/

    We have moved into very mild deflation. Rate is -0.1%

    "The most notable changes in the year were decreases in Communications (-8.0%), Clothing & Footwear (-3.9%), Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance (-3.1%) and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (-1.2%). There were increases in Education (+4.1%), Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (+4.0%), Health (+2.3%) and Recreation & Culture (+1.9%).


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    #172
    Geuze
    Registered Users Posts: 13,072 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Dec 2011 CPI = 100

    Dec 2019 CPI = 103.6

    Eight years, and 3.6% cumulative inflation, that is low.


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    #173
    Roger the cabin boy
    Registered Users Posts: 365 ✭✭Roger the cabin boy


    Geuze wrote: »
    CPI published today, for April 2020.

    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/cpi/consumerpriceindexapril2020/

    We have moved into very mild deflation. Rate is -0.1%

    "The most notable changes in the year were decreases in Communications (-8.0%), Clothing & Footwear (-3.9%), Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance (-3.1%) and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (-1.2%). There were increases in Education (+4.1%), Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (+4.0%), Health (+2.3%) and Recreation & Culture (+1.9%).

    So, things you buy get cheaper because things you need are getting more expensive.

    All aboard the deflation train!!


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    #174
    greenfield21
    Registered Users Posts: 976 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    Mad to think we are still here in 2020 after 08 with huge intervention still chugging forward. Who have thought it. It's quite possible that we get out the other side of Covid and this could go on for many more years to come with distorted markets. It all looks completely unsustainable but where does it end.


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    #175
    PieOhMy
    Registered Users Posts: 8,530 ✭✭✭PieOhMy


    Could be a general malaise worldwide for the medium term in terms of inflation and economic growth a la Japan maybe? Certainly interesting times, its gas watching decisions that will be in textbooks for generations to come happening live!


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    #176
    Geuze
    Registered Users Posts: 13,072 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Eurostat April inflation data

    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10294852/2-20052020-AP-EN.pdf/4d69f01b-fe9a-c248-2627-cc2059ca2f31

    EU = 0.7%

    Euro-area = 0.3%

    13 countries in mild deflation.


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    #177
    Geuze
    Registered Users Posts: 13,072 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Eurostat flash estimate for May inflation.

    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10294840/2-29052020-AP-EN.pdf/82e74a7c-bfea-cc42-b842-260f2ce4039e

    This is an estimate, not the official figure.

    Euro-area = 0.1%

    Main driver is energy price deflation.

    Big jump in "unprocessed food" inflation in April 2020.


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    #178
    Voltex
    Registered Users Posts: 1,580 ✭✭✭Voltex


    Very anecdotal I know, but my own business is considered "essential" and this is how we've traded since the start of the crisis.

    Day 1 - almost instant 50% decline in sales. We had to let 40/107 staff go. All internal indicators painted toward a long terms slump in demand.

    Mid April - sales stabilised around 60% of pre-covid. Good cash flow management is key here. We have mostly blue-chip customers who were themselves trading well, so cash flow planning was going to be fairly accurate. Smaller customers were approached early and payment plans in place - luckily very few needed to avail of this.

    Late April - sales back to 65-70%. We looked to take back some staff that were laid off. Very few took up the offer. As people were laid off, they were getting rent holidays, so Covid payments plus rent holidays added up to being of more value.

    Late May - sales are back to 90-95% of pre covid....and same old story, cant get staff.


    I think the government did exactly the right thing by giving money directly to those who lost their jobs. I think it preserved a certain amount demand in the economy that might not have been there otherwise.


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    #179
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    We will help the country recover if we stop buying so much from the UK and support local and Irish companies more.


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    #180
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    I just cant see the major recession in ireland. The pharma sector here cant spend fast enough and that leads to huge secondary jobs. Intel are going ahead with their plant, construction of huge developments resuming. From what I can see there is still a huge shortage in skilled positions. There should be a program set up now for people in typical unskilled jobs to reskill as they will be hit hardest by this recession which will be retail and hospitality. Also if the irish will be competative in tourism there will be a huge domestic market this year.
    We will feel the effects of 3 months of little economic activity but from what I am seeing the country will bounce back strong.


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    #181
    Zenify
    Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    Voltex wrote: »
    and same old story, cant get staff.


    Lots of people are unemployed. I think many of them (myself included) arent willing to work 5 days a week for an extra €100


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