The decline continues

JTMan · 18-02-2017 10:25am

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The Examiner still has a regional market in Cork, Kerry and Limerick, so looking at that 30k in terms of a Munster context, it may be manageable. See they've moved to free member registration to access online articles - is this the first move towards a paywall?

Distribution costs are a large post to a publisher. The Examiner has a nationwide distribution cost.

Loafing Oaf · 18-02-2017 11:08am

JTMan wrote: »

- The Herald, The Irish Daily Star, the Sunday World are all screwed. Circulation is down circa. 60% inside the last decade of so. No real digital strategy that is working. D day cannot be far away.

That day never seems to come though. When the Tribune closed I would have confidently predicted another few casualties within five years...

JTMan · 18-02-2017 12:03pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

That day never seems to come though. When the Tribune closed I would have confidently predicted another few casualties within five years...

Newspapers are, in general, being kept alive by cost cutting. Costs are being cut as quick as revenue declines. The problem is that there is a limit to this strategy because costs can only be cut so far. Some costs are largely fixed such as distribution costs and some admin costs and there is a minimum number of staff needed to run a newspaper. Many newspapers are getting close to a tipping point where costs exceed revenue and nothing can be done to address it. They only avenue at that stage is closures.

L1011 · 20-02-2017 12:51am

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

So theoretically the circulation decline can continue indefinitely: as long as Peter Sutherland a few of his mates are still buying they'll keep publishing.

There's a floor - I'd guess it'd be somewhere between 15-20k. Many specialist magazines would be on even less although they're monthly, not weekly. I know how much ads/advertorials in some of the SBP supplements cost and they don't appear to have much trouble selling them.

JTMan · 20-02-2017 5:22am

L1011 wrote: »

There's a floor - I'd guess it'd be somewhere between 15-20k. Many specialist magazines would be on even less although they're monthly, not weekly. I know how much ads/advertorials in some of the SBP supplements cost and they don't appear to have much trouble selling them.

I would not say that there is a floor that is a rigid floor. Yes, there are a bunch of rich people that will buy the SBP no matter what but these rich people will die and the newer generation will shun newspapers.

Agreed that it is surprising how much advertising the supplements attract in the SBP given how very people read them.

JTMan · 26-02-2017 4:11pm

Oh no ... Landmark Media Investments (who own the Irish Examiner and multiple other newspapers, radio stations and online sites) have appointed KPMG according to the Sunday Times. Also, INM many be interested in the Irish Examiner. More here.

I suspect that we will hear more my LM / KPMG very soon.

Loafing Oaf · 27-02-2017 1:06am

JTMan wrote: »

Oh no ... Landmark Media Investments (who own the Irish Examiner and multiple other newspapers, radio stations and online sites) have appointed KPMG according to the Sunday Times. Also, INM many be interested in the Irish Examiner. More here.

I suspect that we will hear more my LM / KPMG very soon.

Any thoughts as to why the INM might be interested in the Examiner JTMan? Repackaging it as the 'Indo Munster edition' perhaps?

JTMan · 27-02-2017 7:50am

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Any thoughts as to why the INM might be interested in the Examiner JTMan? Repackaging it as the 'Indo Munster edition' perhaps?

I think that an outright acquisition of the Irish Examiner by INM will not pass the competition authorities. INM and LMI know that. Hence, the proposed link is something else.

What link could be established without compeition issues?
- Distribution.
- Printing.
- Admin.

Other options:
- Examiner and Indo joining up for a joint publication in Munster as you suggested but this might have competition concerns and cost issues.

INM refused to comment today but the Indo article says that INM are "focused" on the Celtic Media acquisition. Translation might be that INM will not pursue an Irish Examiner link until the Celtic Media acquisition is complete.

KPMG are probably looking at a series of options for the future of LM.

Delacent · 27-02-2017 10:14am

JTMan wrote: »

I think that an outright acquisition of the Irish Examiner by INM will not pass the competition authorities. INM and LMI know that. Hence, the proposed link is something else.

What link could be established without compeition issues?
- Distribution.
- Printing.
- Admin.

Other options:
- Examiner and Indo joining up for a joint publication in Munster as you suggested but this might have competition concerns and cost issues.

AKA what the did to the Sunday Tribune and use it as a buffer from other media.

Didn't that close?

There will be a day when one of the major newspapers in UK or Ireland will move its daily news online and have a "weekend" paper - and that day may be sooner than many expect with The Guardian being favourite as its top broadsheet onlien but languishes near the botoom of the "paid" paper chart.

Would INM try this with "The Examiner"?

JTMan · 27-02-2017 10:29am

Delacent wrote: »

Would INM try this with "The Examiner"?

Back to the main problem ... the competition authorities will have a canary if INM want editorial control over the Examiner. Daily or weekly. I think it is highly unlikely to be approved.

That said, yeah, the next step might be for some publications to move from daily to weekly. However, the problem with this, is they cut their circulation revenue and advertising revenue very significantly by doing this. Print revenue is still bread and butter for all but a small number of publications.

On a side note, Press Gazette have 2 articles here and here on the ongoing continuous decline of the regional press in the UK. It does not matter if the paper is daily or weekly, they are all in freefall.

Loafing Oaf · 27-02-2017 10:54am

JTMan wrote: »

Back to the main problem ... the competition authorities will have a canary if INM want editorial control over the Examiner. Daily or weekly. I think it is highly unlikely to be approved.

I wonder what attitude the competition authorities take if it comes down to a stark choice between a given publication/radio station being taken over by Denis O'Brien/INM and closing down...You occasionally hear talk of the Broadcasting Authority forcing Communicorp to sell Newstalk, which would surely in practice mean forcing its closure.

JTMan · 27-02-2017 11:04am

In the case of the Irish Examiner I cannot see it coming down to closure or INM acquisition. Whilst there may be no suitors for the small regional LM publications, LM is likely to get a few suitors for the Irish Examiner. Management buyout of the Irish Examiner is another option.

JTMan · 11-03-2017 2:00pm

INM to merge ‘Herald’ and ‘Sunday World’ newsrooms. Story here.

I thought that INM merged newsrooms years ago?

Not a single mention of The Irish Daily Star in the article which is probably not a good sign for the publication.

JTMan · 21-03-2017 9:18pm

INM have published their results:

http://www.inmplc.com/~/media/Files/I/INM/investor-docs/reports-and-presentations/2016-preliminary-results.pdf

- Newspaper advertising revenue down to 63.9 million from 70.4 million.
- Digital advertising revenue up from 12.5 to 15.1 million.
- Revenue from sale of newspapers and magazines down to 95.8 from 101.1 million.
- Revenue from distribution/commercial printing activities up to 148.6 from 135.4.

Newspaper sales revenue and advertising revenue continue to suffer. Online digital revenue continues to increase but not enough to cover lost newspaper revenue. Distribution revenue continues to go up as INM diversify their distribution income.

IRE60 · 22-03-2017 10:06am

I had to do a bit of 'bird' and then 'went on the lamb' - but ar ais aris!

C

manageit · 22-03-2017 4:59pm

IRE60 wrote: »

I had to do a bit of 'bird' and then 'went on the lamb' - but ar ais aris!

C

Fully rehabilitated, I hope.

IRE60 · 22-03-2017 5:27pm

manageit wrote: »

Fully rehabilitated, I hope.

100% yer Honor

IRE60 · 22-03-2017 6:49pm

JTMan wrote: »

INM have published their results:

http://www.inmplc.com/~/media/Files/I/INM/investor-docs/reports-and-presentations/2016-preliminary-results.pdf

- Newspaper advertising revenue down to 63.9 million from 70.4 million.
- Digital advertising revenue up from 12.5 to 15.1 million.
- Revenue from sale of newspapers and magazines down to 95.8 from 101.1 million.
- Revenue from distribution/commercial printing activities up to 148.6 from 135.4.

Newspaper sales revenue and advertising revenue continue to suffer. Online digital revenue continues to increase but not enough to cover lost newspaper revenue. Distribution revenue continues to go up as INM diversify their distribution income.

Yes, Newspread bringing in the cash! Nothing out of the blue bar the addendum to the notice which lead to this gem:
https//www.irishtimes.com/business/media-and-marketing/inm-chief-made-protected-disclosure-under-whistleblower-rules-1.3019233

Jesus that makes things difficult for all - the pricetag for Newstalk was 'given' to the Indo i believe - they took a different and much lower valuation an an asset never having made a serious crust and with limited scope to do so in the future

JTMan · 22-03-2017 7:25pm

Welcome back IE60.

It certainly appears that there are some serious corporate governance concerns over the botched CommuniCorp acquisition. Why on earth anyone would want to own a declining radio station these days, let alone pay a premium price, is beyond me.

IRE60 · 23-03-2017 10:09am

Cheers JT

Maybe they didn't want to own it, maybe someone just wanted to sell it!

If you look at it strategically it's back in the 80's/90's when IN&M last had a radio station. They divested of all that. Then out of the blue, and they don't have enough trouble with their core business, they 'decide' to buy an ailing radio station. I wouldn't think so.

It has to be said, it was an 'all in' move by Robert Pitt. He's legally protected from dismissal at this point (I believe) but it means that his days are numbered.

JTMan · 26-03-2017 12:14pm

The Sunday Business Post reports that the Irish Times may bid for the Irish Examiner.

IRE60 · 26-03-2017 2:27pm

JTMan wrote: »

The Sunday Business Post reports that the Irish Times may bid for the Irish Examiner.

Do they have the money? Lost 1.1m last year - i don't think they are in the acquisitions business at the moment.
Sunday Times say that the Indo looking at buying trade publications.
All very confusing!

JTMan · 26-03-2017 5:30pm

The Irish Times have around 10 million in cash despite the losses. They have the liquidity. Also, the Irish Times are earning a lot of distribution and printing revenue from the Examiner. If someone else purchasers it then that revenue stream may disappear. That said, acquiring another legacy newspaper does not seem a good long term strategic decision.

Loafing Oaf · 26-03-2017 5:37pm

JTMan wrote: »

The Irish Times have around 10 million in cash despite the losses. They have the liquidity. Also, the Irish Times are earning a lot of distribution and printing revenue from the Examiner. If someone else purchasers it then that revenue stream may disappear. That said, acquiring another legacy newspaper does not seem a good long term strategic decision.

Well the myhome deal was ten years ago, maybe they're itching to do another big one.:P Perhaps looking at a 2 for 1 online subscription? Still hard to see the business rationale whatever...

Harry Palmr · 26-03-2017 5:42pm

Sure the IT owning de papure is inimical for a competitive market.

JTMan · 14-04-2017 7:17am

11 Northern Irish regional newspapers are to close. More here.

An Ciarraioch · 14-04-2017 12:09pm

JTMan wrote: »

11 Northern Irish regional newspapers are to close. More here.

The Indo already owns many Southern regional papers and the Bel Tel, so would have made sense for them to take the titles on?

IRE60 · 14-04-2017 12:11pm

compare and contrast: (fromhttp://www.pressgazette.co.uk)

The Financial Times has revealed that it now has a record 650,000 digital subscribers with gains fuelled by Brexit and the US presidential election.

In â€œannual resultsâ€ it also confirmed that digital revenues have now overtaken print.

Privately-owned Japanese company Nikkei bought the Financial Times in November 2015 for Â£844m.

The FT said it will not be releasing profit and loss figures.

The title said digital subscribers grew 14 per cent year on year to 650,000 in 2016.

Print circulation fell 6 per cent year on to 184,279 in February. The FTâ€™s average daily UK print circulation is 61,158, of which 20,428 are bulk copies distributed at places like hotels and airports. The rest of its print circulation is in Europe (59,771), Asia (27,572) and the US (35,778).

In the weeks surrounding the UK referendum on leaving the European Union and the US presidential election, the FT says it says new subscriber numbers were up 75 per cent and 33 per cent respectively.

FT chief executive John Ridding said: â€œOur first year in partnership with our new owners Nikkei saw the FT achieve record levels of paid-for readership and investment in new digital products and revenue streams.

â€œThese will help ensure the sustained success of the FTâ€™s business transformation and support for our unrivalled quality global journalism. We are developing substantial areas of cooperation with our partners at Nikkei, based on our shared values and vision.â€

Loafing Oaf · 14-04-2017 12:29pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The Indo already owns many Southern regional papers and the Bel Tel, so would have made sense for them to take the titles on?

Those names don't ring many bells with me, wouldn't say they're among the most prestigious NI regionals...

IRE60 · 14-04-2017 12:48pm

Have a look at the financials at the bottom of this page

https://companycheck.co.uk/company/NI004828/OBSERVER-NEWSPAPERS-NI-LIMITED/companies-house-data

You can see that the money was flooding out of the business - if they shut now they might squirrel away a few quid.

Harry Palmr · 14-04-2017 12:56pm

The FT is like Private Eye, a very specific but quite large niche publication. Very hard to compare any standard Mon-Sat paper with it.

JTMan · 14-04-2017 1:14pm

IRE60 wrote: »

You can see that the money was flooding out of the business - if they shut now they might squirrel away a few quid.

Interesting. A familiar story of a small legacy media group where circulation is collapsing, advertising is collapsing and there is no real digital revenues. Nobody would have purchased Observer Newspapers NI in their right mind.

This does not bode well for other small regional publishers such as Landmark Media Investments.

JTMan · 17-04-2017 4:47pm

Looks like The Irish Times may acquire the Irish Examiner ... http://www.independent.ie/business/media/inm-is-not-in-talks-to-buy-the-irish-examiner-despite-reports-35628197.html

IRE60 · 18-04-2017 12:42pm

Can't see the indo ever being allowed buy the Examiner - I mean they are still trying to get their hands on Celtic and it's gone for a review by the BAI.

IRE60 · 25-05-2017 9:45pm

There’s a really interesting set of results in DMGT (Daily/Sunday Mail etc)
The Press Gazette do a decent summary and at the bottom is a link to their release.

http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/mail-online-boosted-revenue-to-60m-in-first-six-months-but-not-yet-in-profit/

https://www.dmgt.com/~/media/Files/D/DMGT/RNS%20release.pdf

Really interesting, sometimes diverse, group of companies – e.g. they own a company called RMS:
"RMS is the World's Leading Catastrophe Risk Modeling Company
From earthquakes, hurricanes, and floods to terrorism and infectious diseases, RMS helps financial institutions and public agencies understand, quantify, and manage risk"

That’s a class bit of Modeling!

It’s interesting how they diversified over the years. I know their ‘information’ business was strong years ago, their Events business is fairly legendary in the UK as well – then there are the papers!

JTMan · 26-05-2017 6:45am

I think you linked to a different article. The Press Gazette DMGT results article is here. Mail Online continues to perform.

It is interesting as to how diversified unrelated revenue streams are keeping some newspaper groups going. INM is being helped, in no small part, by revenue from distributing non-newspaper goods.

IRE60 · 26-05-2017 9:47am

can't beat the auld copy book!

Amended that link (dirty word that, link)

C

JTMan · 30-05-2017 8:25pm

Easons have exited the distribution business selling their stake in EM News Distribution to Menzies. http://www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/menzies-buys-eason-s-newspaper-distribution-arm-for-3-6m-1.3101394?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Fretail-and-services%2Fmenzies-buys-eason-s-newspaper-distribution-arm-for-3-6m-1.3101394

IRE60 · 31-05-2017 10:02am

I suppose it right for Easons to concentrate on it's (now) core business. It was big business at one point, when the newstrade was big business for Easons, but possibly now it’s more of a hindrance.

Menzies specialise in that sector and its probably a good move for both companies.

JTMan · 04-06-2017 8:29am

Very surprising that INM and Celtic Media have walked away from the proposed INM acquisition of Celtic Media. Anyone hazard a guess as to why?

IRE60 · 06-06-2017 7:02pm

JTMan wrote: »

Very surprising that INM and Celtic Media have walked away from the proposed INM acquisition of Celtic Media. Anyone hazard a guess as to why?

Strange - maybe the scrutiny?
Perhaps an investigation by the BAI might not be the attention either company (or just one) wants.
Maybe the the whole mess at the top with IN&M's CEO and whistleblower stuff is enough focus at the moment.

JTMan · 06-06-2017 7:28pm

The BAI had finished their investigation. It is with the Minister for a final determination.

Yeah, perhaps infighting in INM is a factor or perhaps INM re-did the maths and took fright at owning more legacy small regional newspapers.

The Sunday Business Post now reports that 100 jobs are at risk at Celtic Media.

Meanwhile, Landmark Media Investments are seeking a buyer for their regional portfolio.

IRE60 · 06-06-2017 10:40pm

Yes, maybe - maybe things have differed since the first offer and now. I'm a fan of regional newspapers - until you see how they a part of a (rural community it had to be said) community you see the plus.
Ministers report was ment to be released this week - was it going to be another scrutiny that wasnt going to be tolerated?
Think Celic are in stuck with a lot of debt - 4m if I remember correctly - not much more than the asking - parashoot stuff!

JTMan · 11-06-2017 7:12am

The Sunday Times reveals the reason for the collapse of the INM acquisition of Celtic Media here. " It is understood that the deal fell down on a clause that would have required INM to maintain the number of journalists in the Celtic Media group at 24 indefinitely".

Crazy clause to has no real world logic.

IRE60 · 11-06-2017 7:44pm

Indefinitely, are you sh1tting me!

It’s absolutely amazing that the BAI who were, supposedly, the instigators of these clauses, would decide to impose these restraints on a company, two companies as it turns out.

If the story is correct and the BAI report is true (and I have no reason to doubt it) then they sunk the deal imposing draconian constraints on a company.

I think the BAI might, but imposing these caveats and having the deal scuttled, have been the catalyst in the possible failure of a newspaper group.

Frank Mulrennan, Celtic CEO, said at a hearing, that the papers would be in a better place under the control of IN&M. It suggests, I think , that they need to be sold.

Ask the BAI if, when they employ their next staff member, will they give them tenure? Will they say you now have a job for life as they were, supposedly, asking IN&M for the positions of the 24 journalists?

All editors to remain in place and, the real fcuk you, that they report into the Indo to one person dealing solely with the six ex-Celtic titles. Do they want to go in and run IN&M themselves?!

I’m certainly no apologist for IN&M but I think that with that level of interference was totally over the top and they were, given the report in the ST, correct in pulling out.

You can’t be subservient to some overarching authority, and a government funded one, telling you how long you can employ people for - indefinitely!

If this is the level of “interference” (choose a different adjective depending on where you site on that spectrum) the BAI can wield over a publisher, then I think it is dark day for the media.

No commercial reality.

IRE60 · 23-06-2017 4:26pm

Time Inc now - looking to scale back by 111 journalists.

http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/uk-magazine-giant-time-inc-puts-111-journalists-at-risk-of-redundancy

expectationlost · 26-06-2017 1:03pm

JTMan wrote: »

Very surprising that INM and Celtic Media have walked away from the proposed INM acquisition of Celtic Media. Anyone hazard a guess as to why?

the Phoenix said with the delay INM saw Celtic Media numbers go down further and looked less attractive. They said the guaranteed job numbers would have been negotiated down.

JTMan · 26-06-2017 1:11pm

expectationlost wrote: »

the Phoenix said with the delay INM saw Celtic Media numbers go down further and looked less attractive. They said the guaranteed job numbers would have been negotiated down.

Interesting. If the Celtic Media numbers are getting worse, it begs the question as to what will happen to the operation without an acquisition.

IRE60 · 26-06-2017 2:57pm

JTMan wrote: »

Interesting. If the Celtic Media numbers are getting worse, it begs the question as to what will happen to the operation without an acquisition.

There's a chance that it will go tits up.

Celtic CEO, Frank Mulrennan, told the Communications Committee:

"If it is not approved, our ongoing decline in revenues combined with our continuing need to invest in digital strategy will increase CMNL’s reliance on bank funding and leave us in a position where we will be unable to offer firm guarantees of survival for all of our titles."

You can't get a clearer statement than that, but there seems to be very few people listening.

The idea of "media plurality" sometimes has to be looked at in terms of the commercial realities.

JTMan · 26-06-2017 6:12pm

IRE60 wrote: »

The idea of "media plurality" sometimes has to be looked at in terms of the commercial realities.

Completely and if Celtic Media does go tits up then the unions who opposed the deal have to learn from this and apply to future consolidation attempts.

The decline continues

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