Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

An Ciarraioch · 15-09-2019 10:10pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Johnson has written in the Telegraph tomorrow but it's paywalled.

Anyone got the gist?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/15/boris-johnson-confident-closing-brexit-deal-heads-key-meeting/

Essentials here:

https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1173338221192929281

trellheim · 15-09-2019 10:11pm

Let us be in no doubt as to what has really happened in Parliament in the last couple of weeks. Let there be no ambiguity about the underlying motive. A large number of MPs – though by no means all – are simply trying to crush Brexit. In spite of all that they promised – and voted for – they just want to stop this country from ever leaving the European Union.

This isn’t about trying to block a so-called “no deal” Brexit. Any such claim is utterly disingenuous. It’s about trying to stop Brexit from happening at all – and the opposition parties have emerged in their true anti-democratic colours....

after that it goes paywall

Have to laugh at the other headline where Charles Moore is slagging off Cameron "I'll take headlines I never thought possible for 20 please"

GM228 · 15-09-2019 10:12pm

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, but that it is not how it would be perceived : Scots would just see a court in London giving its verdict.

So would an incorrect perception be another reason for Scottish independence?

trellheim · 15-09-2019 10:13pm

GM228 wrote: »

The SC and ECJ are not comparable.

The ECJ deals with EU law when deciding a case.

The SC deals with the law from the jurisdiction of the appeal, in this case Scots Law, the SC is essentially sitting as a Scottish court when hearing a case on appeal from the CoS. The final decision whatever it may be will be considered a decision of a Scottish court, not a UK or English etc court.

I had not thought of that. So it will be on whether the Inner House erred in Scottish Law ?

Professor Moriarty · 15-09-2019 10:15pm

Strazdas wrote: »

The opening two paragraphs from Johnson are far from encouraging :

Let us be in no doubt as to what has really happened in Parliament in the last couple of weeks. Let there be no ambiguity about the underlying motive. A large number of MPs – though by no means all – are simply trying to crush Brexit. In spite of all that they promised – and voted for – they just want to stop this country from ever leaving the European Union.

This isn’t about trying to block a so-called “no deal” Brexit. Any such claim is utterly disingenuous. It’s about trying to stop Brexit from happening at all – and the opposition parties have emerged in their true anti-democratic colours....

Johnson calling anyone "disingenuous", considering he's a consummate liar, is beyond ironic. And calling the opposition "anti-democratic" is beyond hypocritical. Johnson himself is beyond parody.

Headshot · 15-09-2019 10:17pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Essentials here:

https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1173338221192929281

I was going to say this is delusion on a grand scheme thinking a deal is close but I honest believe they no there's no deal in sight and all this deal is close rubbish is just pandering for local consumption.

BJ wants a no deal and will do anything to get it

trellheim · 15-09-2019 10:17pm

Tom Newton Dunn reckons Boris can work some magic on the hardcore brexiteers.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/9934139/boris-johnson-brexit-commons-vote-rebels-8/

Professor Moriarty · 15-09-2019 10:18pm

GM228 wrote: »

So would an incorrect perception be another reason for Scottish independence?

Yes. Doesn't matter at all anymore whether it's true or not. The fact ship has sailed.

Professor Moriarty · 15-09-2019 10:21pm

Headshot wrote: »

I was going to say this is delusion on a grand scheme thinking a deal is close but I honest believe they no there's no deal in sight and all this deal is close rubbish is just pandering for local consumption.

BJ wants a no deal and will do anything to get it

I think he does want a deal, it's just that he's utterly incompetent and has painted himself into a corner.

irishproduce · 15-09-2019 10:28pm

Lib dems promising a straight revoking of article 50 if they get enough seats.
Watch the EU and corporate money flow into the lib dems for the election...

Headshot · 15-09-2019 10:29pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think he does want a deal, it's just that he's utterly incompetent and has painted himself into a corner.

I have big doubts about this so call deal since every EU source saying there's barely been any serious negotiations

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/15/eu-officials-reject-boris-johnson-claim-huge-progress-brexit-talks

It's pathetic reading for a PM who's suppose to be looking for a deal.

omerin · 15-09-2019 10:34pm

He will get some sort of deal with some rebranding on the backstop and the DUP will bend the knee. Not sure it will pass in the hoc but he will have covered all bases as far as he is concerned and will do well in the election having signed a pre election pact with the Brexit party. Lib dems and labour will be blamed for the UK still being in the EU, the DUP may not suffer as much as they could have but the cons will be decimated in Scotland but for him it's a price worth paying and he will make it up in England.
I think the erg will fall in line when the dup sign off, but for the most part this is about England, it probably always was and the loss of Scotland is acceptable.

I could be overestimating boris but I think he has played this very well, it doesn't look like it now but he is just moving the pieces on the board around.

Professor Moriarty · 15-09-2019 10:35pm

Headshot wrote: »

I have big doubts about this so call deal since every EU source saying there's barely been any serious negotiations

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/15/eu-officials-reject-boris-johnson-claim-huge-progress-brexit-talks

It's pathetic reading for a PM who's suppose to be looking for a deal.

You may well be right but look at it from this perspective. Johnson is a glove puppet for Leave and the ERG. They manipulate him so that, by playing the hard man, he thinks he's doing the right thing to force through a deal. All the while, Leave/ERG have him closing down various possibilities so that Johnson will soon find that a deal is impossible.

lawred2 · 15-09-2019 10:38pm

omerin wrote: »

He will get some sort of deal with some rebranding on the backstop and the DUP will bend the knee. Not sure it will pass in the hoc but he will have covered all bases as far as he is concerned and will do well in the election having signed a pre election pact with the Brexit party. Lib dems and labour will be blamed for the UK still being in the EU, the DUP may not suffer as much as they could have but the cons will be decimated in Scotland but for him it's a price worth paying and he will make it up in England.
I think the erg will fall in line when the dup sign off, but for the most part this is about England, it probably always was and the loss of Scotland is acceptable.

I could be overestimating boris but I think he has played this very well, it doesn't look like it now but he is just moving the pieces on the board around.

Or there is no chess board and he's played this like a complete fool.

Lost parliament, lost over twenty Tory members and every single meaningful vote!?

And he is so not in control that his next act could very well be illegal.

Yeah he's played it very well alright.

An Ciarraioch · 15-09-2019 10:42pm

49% in a poll today would vote for a no deal Brexit:

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1173292897883570181

Robert McGrath · 15-09-2019 10:47pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

49% in a poll today would vote for a no deal Brexit:

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1173292897883570181

Crazy. Absolutely mental

lawred2 · 15-09-2019 10:49pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

49% in a poll today would vote for a no deal Brexit:

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1173292897883570181

That poll is toss

A 10% swing from remain to no deal?

either the sample sizes are too small or the polling company is untrustworthy.

Strazdas · 15-09-2019 10:50pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Johnson calling anyone "disingenuous", considering he's a consummate liar, is beyond ironic. And calling the opposition "anti-democratic" is beyond hypocritical. Johnson himself is beyond parody.

The language seems very provocative and strident for someone supposedly seeking a deal. He's basically having a right go at anyone who dares to disagree with him.

Tell me how · 15-09-2019 10:57pm

Boris Johnson once again reaping the benefits of putting himself within reach of the public.

https://twitter.com/MarieAnnUK/status/1173025853237862400

Cork Boy 53 · 15-09-2019 11:02pm

lawred2 wrote: »

That poll is toss

A 10% swing from remain to no deal?

either the sample sizes are too small or the polling company is untrustworthy.

Whether it is accurate or not the hardcore Brexiteers will seize upon it to justify all the nonsense they have been spouting.

ArmaniJeanss · 15-09-2019 11:05pm

Johnson writing specifically for just one newspaper seem wrong. I'd have thought it was unusual and not something that recent PMs have done.

He's the PM now, he can make public statements whenever he wants. The press will turn up, listen and report, and the 24 hour news stations will broadcast it live.

Professor Moriarty · 15-09-2019 11:18pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

49% in a poll today would vote for a no deal Brexit:

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1173292897883570181

That's seems to be a bit of an outlier. Polls show a a consistent and sizable majority for Remain. This poll taken on 6th September showed:

Remain: 57%
No Deal 43%

Also, the fact that Leave With a Deal is excluded forces people to make a simplistic binary choice (we know where that gets the UK...). Many of that 49% would much prefer a deal.

trellheim · 15-09-2019 11:43pm

Assuming theres some secret deal ( yes, a big IF)

in sequencing a deal the EU will likely demand a confirmatory vote from Parliament prior to their acceptance of anything as thats what caused all the poo the last time.

WA2 I cant see Labour doing anything but opposing it and if they do it can never pass

GM228 · 16-09-2019 12:12am

A potentially interesting twist, J Maugham believes he has found a flaw in the Benn Act which could see a legit no deal in spite of the Act depending on other factors coming into play:-

The flaw arises in circumstances where the Prime Minister brings a Withdrawal Agreement (“WA”) to Parliament for approval. And it arises from the mismatch between the provisions of the Benn Act and those of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (the “2018 Act“)

What follows is a slightly simplified description of the flaw, to aid readability.

To avoid the PM having to request an extension from the EU under section 1 of the Benn Act the Commons must approve the WA. If they do, on or prior to 19 October, the obligation in the Benn Act to request an extension falls away.

However, the provisions of the 2018 Act specify further preconditions, beyond approval by the Commons of the WA, before the WA can be ratified and No Deal avoided.

Those preconditions are set out in section 13(1) of the 2018 Act and include the passing of a further Act implementing the Withdrawal Agreement (the “Further Obligations”).

Summing up, if the Commons approves the WA but these Further Obligations are not satisfied before 31 October 2019, then two consequences follow. First, the Benn Act will not apply to require the PM to request an extension from the EU. And, second, we will leave with No Deal.

So, imagine the PM says privately to the ERG ‘support my WA and I will deliver No Deal.’ In those circumstances, with the help of some Labour MPs, the Commons might approve even Theresa May’s WA.

The PM would thus have escaped the obligation in the Benn Act to request an extension and could deliver No Deal.

He could, for example, again suspend Parliament (subject of course to the outcome of this week’s Supreme Court hearing). There is some evidence (see below) that he plans to do this. And we would leave without a deal.

Imreoir2 · 16-09-2019 12:18am

GM228 wrote: »

A potentially interesting twist, J Maugham believes he has found a flaw in the Benn Act which could see a legit no deal in spite of the Act depending on other factors coming into play:-

The cunning plan to end all cunning plans. It does of course ignore that the opposition have the numbers to pass a law to remove any such complication just like they passed the Benn act in the first place.

GM228 · 16-09-2019 12:42am

Imreoir2 wrote: »

The cunning plan to end all cunning plans. It does of course ignore that the opposition have the numbers to pass a law to remove any such complication just like they passed the Benn act in the first place.

The problem is whilst they have the numbers, they may not have the same keen legal eye's as Maugham, or that they don't believe his opinion (he does seem to be on the money though), or that assuming the SC decision goes in the PMs favour that when recalled on the 14th there simply would not be enough time to table an amendment, debate it, get it through the various stages etc in time.

Maugham himself states the best way to bypass the flaw is:-

for MPs to refuse to approve any motion for a WA on or before 19 October. Those who want the Withdrawal Agreement should refuse on the basis that, by voting for it, they may well be delivering No Deal

Amendments may not be a realistic option, even if the SC upholds the Scottish decision, if an amendment was an option I think it would have been mentioned, and to be fair he knows his law and the law making process very well.

Enzokk · 16-09-2019 12:54am

GM228 wrote: »

The problem is whilst they have the numbers, they may not have the same keen legal eye's as Maugham, or that they don't believe his opinion (he does seem to be on the money though), or that assuming the SC decision goes in the PMs favour that when recalled on the 14th there simply would not be enough time to table an amendment, debate it, get it through the various stages etc in time.

Maugham himself states the best way to bypass the flaw is:-

Amendments may not be a realistic option, even if the SC upholds the Scottish decision, if an amendment was an option I think it would have been mentioned, he knows his law very well.

The other problem is if he agrees to a deal only then to have it expire and they leave without a deal, once the crap hits the fan Johnson will take 100% responsibility for it. The EU would be open to an extension to have the legislation passed for the deal, if he declines to ask for one he owns no deal. The EU will not or shouldn't make it easy for him. Check all freight in France, let the delays stack up in Dover due to this and see how long he lasts.

RickBlaine · 16-09-2019 12:55am

trellheim wrote: »

Assuming theres some secret deal ( yes, a big IF)

in sequencing a deal the EU will likely demand a confirmatory vote from Parliament prior to their acceptance of anything as thats what caused all the poo the last time.

WA2 I cant see Labour doing anything but opposing it and if they do it can never pass

They could put forward an amendment that the deal is subject to a people's vote with remain as the other option. The EU would almost certainly grant an extension for that.

CelticRambler · 16-09-2019 5:10am

GM228 wrote: »

So would an incorrect perception be another reason for Scottish independence?

'Twas a good enough reason for the English to vote for Brexit, so why not? Every "good" reason for Brexit can be used to justify Scotland (and NI) casting off the shackles of the UKofGB&NI

Peregrinus · 16-09-2019 5:14am

GM228 wrote: »

So would an incorrect perception be another reason for Scottish independence?

The important question is not whether it would be areason for Scottish independence, but whether it would be a motivation for Scottish independence.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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