Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’

cookie1977 · 15-02-2014 12:04am

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

I actually agree with the numbers. But ive been a part of redc surveys and I would not consider them accurate or reliable. Did the census not cover this.

I looked at the CSO site but could find nothing. In terms of RedC. Whatever about people not liking the results RedC are not some dodgy market research company. How people/clients interpret the data they collect is another thing.

Zamboni · 15-02-2014 12:10am

cookie1977 wrote: »

Sorry but RedC undertook the survey and just over 2000 people was the total sample size.

You posted the link to a survey to provide evidence in relation to the age profile of tenants.

The overall survey was based by 2,005 interviews.
Only 38% of those interview respondents were tenants.
38% of 2,005 = 761.9

RedC is simply the company that conducted the survey.
Society of Chartered Surveyors (vested interest) commissioned the survey.

MouseTail · 15-02-2014 4:28am

Zamboni wrote: »

You posted the link to a survey to provide evidence in relation to the age profile of tenants.

The overall survey was based by 2,005 interviews.
Only 38% of those interview respondents were tenants.
38% of 2,005 = 761.9

RedC is simply the company that conducted the survey.
Society of Chartered Surveyors (vested interest) commissioned the survey.

Census stats concur, those renting are more likely to be young and/or foreign nationals. Why someone would argue this, i don't know, its completely intuitive. Cant link, but read "The roof over our heads" from CSO.

dinnyirwin · 15-02-2014 4:48am

MouseTail wrote: »

Census stats concur, those renting are more likely to be young and/or foreign nationals. Why someone would argue this, i don't know, its completely intuitive. Cant link, but read "The roof over our heads" from CSO.

It is indeed, but so are a lot of things and people will argue all day because their original position was the opposite and they just dont want to be wrong.
Look at the people arguing for a year or two that property prices and rents werent going up in Dublin. Even though it was easy to open their eyes and see it happening right in front of them.
Slowly they stopped arguing this and have come to accept it, but now they are sore about it and have changed their arguments to say yes they have increased but its a bubble or its unfair. They are even trying to change the original point of the thread by making it about other things now too.

There should be a poll put on this thread now just to see if people are set on keeping their heads in the sand forever. Ask people something like ---

After a year of this thread has there been a Glut of repossessions
After another year will there be.
Would you agree that property prices have gone up.

cookie1977 · 15-02-2014 7:10am

Zamboni wrote: »

You posted the link to a survey to provide evidence in relation to the age profile of tenants.

The overall survey was based by 2,005 interviews.
Only 38% of those interview respondents were tenants.
38% of 2,005 = 761.9

RedC is simply the company that conducted the survey.
Society of Chartered Surveyors (vested interest) commissioned the survey.

I don't think you really understand how surveys and statistics work.

Villa05 · 15-02-2014 9:00am

dinnyirwin wrote: »

There should be a poll put on this thread now just to see if people are set on keeping their heads in the sand forever. Ask people something like ---

After a year of this thread has there been a Glut of repossessions
After another year will there be.
Would you agree that property prices have gone up.

Thread title

Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%

Note the words "could" and "up to"

40,000 mortgages are > 2 years in arrears, repossessions are very low. Some of the bulls here have accepted that these mortgages are dead. So who exactly has there head in the sand.

Vested Interests (Banks, State, Media) have contrived to create an artificial market. It worked eventually, but how long will it last given that all the vested interests are themselves debt monkeys. We have been through a very painful lesson with VI's and property. Have we forgotten that lesson already?

This is not an SCD or a Dublin thread but these areas are at most risk from my third point

Your questions
1. No
2. There will be a significant increase in the coming years (voluntary surrenders)
3. In my city, stabilised in some areas, in general still falling, Higher sales volumes driving prices down

Zamboni · 15-02-2014 10:47am

MouseTail wrote: »

Census stats concur, those renting are more likely to be young and/or foreign nationals. Why someone would argue this, i don't know, its completely intuitive. Cant link, but read "The roof over our heads" from CSO.

I'm not disputing the point.
I'm calling cookie on his source.
Quite frankly I don't care about the dumb tangents in this thread anymore but at least have the courtesy and intellect to use unbiased quality evidence.

cookie1977 · 15-02-2014 10:50am

Zamboni wrote: »

I'm not disputing the point.
I'm calling cookie on his source.
Quite frankly I don't care about the dumb tangents in this thread anymore but at least have the courtesy and intellect to use unbiased quality evidence.

You agree with the findings of the scsi but disagree with the source?

Zamboni · 15-02-2014 10:53am

cookie1977 wrote: »

I don't think you really understand how surveys and statistics work.

I don't think you understand the importance of good quality data.
If you did you may have referenced the CSO instead of a tiny survey.
And saved us all the hassle of this little tangent.

Piriz · 15-02-2014 11:55am

Heisenberg1 wrote: »

enjoy renting and stop wishing hardship and misery on others let it go you missed the boat. I live in affluent area of SCD and too cycle to work and I have a nice car and beautiful home.

there it is people, we can close this thread now..thanks to everyone for contributing.. !

MouseTail · 15-02-2014 11:57am

Zamboni wrote: »

I don't think you understand the importance of good quality data.
If you did you may have referenced the CSO instead of a tiny survey.
And saved us all the hassle of this little tangent.

There was noyhing wrong ewith Cookies source, RedC are probably the most reputable polling company out there. Certainly political hacks quiver in anticipation of their findings.

This thread is full of tangents, the original question was answered long ago. Could reposessions depress the market 25%? Yes, possibly. Have they...No, will they...No.

Villa05 · 15-02-2014 11:57am

MysticalRain wrote: »

So if I was to summarise this thread in a nutshell:

Quality post, straight to the point. Legend!

Piriz · 15-02-2014 12:16pm

cookie1977 wrote: »

Gluts of repossessions are looking less and less likely that they will happen.

you know the IBRC residential loan book is being sold to vulture capitalists right?

Zamboni · 15-02-2014 12:20pm

Piriz wrote: »

you know the IBRC residential loan book is being sold to vulture capitalists right?

And over half of those loans are in arrears iirc...

Villa05 · 15-02-2014 12:24pm

MysticalRain wrote: »

You still don't get it, do you? This isn't about a transfer of wealth from a richer section of society to a poorer one. If you dig through the statistics, you'll see that those supposedly struggling with arrears are typically the better off in society - civil servants in safe, secure jobs, professionals who over leveraged themselves. They have statistically less levels of unemployment than non-home owners.

Another story of a permanent, pensionable €88,000 p/a salary struggling to survive
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2014/02/13/as-benefit-creep-meets-wage-shrink-whats-the-point-in-anyone-working

How do the majority of households on 40k or less with nowhere near the same pension and job security manage?

gaius c · 15-02-2014 12:25pm

cookie1977 wrote: »

Since 1973 when we joined (the now) EU we've been significant benefiters of other countries hard earned taxes. In the bailout this country took even more money from countries from all over the world.

Going to have to stop you right here. Yes, we took their money but we're paying every red cent back. With interest.

With that appeal to emotion tone to start with, I have to confess that I didn't bother reading beyond that.

dinnyirwin · 15-02-2014 12:27pm

Villa05 wrote: »

Thread title

Note the words "could" and "up to"

40,000 mortgages are > 2 years in arrears, repossessions are very low. Some of the bulls here have accepted that these mortgages are dead. So who exactly has there head in the sand.

Vested Interests (Banks, State, Media) have contrived to create an artificial market. It worked eventually, but how long will it last given that all the vested interests are themselves debt monkeys. We have been through a very painful lesson with VI's and property. Have we forgotten that lesson already?

This is not an SCD or a Dublin thread but these areas are at most risk from my third point

Your questions
1. No
2. There will be a significant increase in the coming years (voluntary surrenders)
3. In my city, stabilised in some areas, in general still falling, Higher sales volumes driving prices down

Why do you mention SCD at every opportunity?
Everyone knows its not just SCD, yet several people keep mentioning it and then accusing others of mentioning it.

"Could" and "coming years".

How about just "hasnt" and "doesnt look likely."

Its almost a year since this thread started?
Shoulda, Woulda, Coulda.

Mousetail is right. The question has been answered long ago.

Villa05 · 15-02-2014 12:29pm

Zamboni wrote: »

And over half of those loans are in arrears iirc...

Subprime lenders only account for 3% of mortgage lending but they have been responsible for up to a quarter of all home repossessions, according to figures released by the Central Bank.

Would imagine that vulture capitalists would use similar tactics

http://www.irishexaminer.com/business/cwojidojidid/rss2/

MouseTail · 15-02-2014 12:32pm

Piriz wrote: »

you know the IBRC residential loan book is being sold to vulture capitalists right?

So? They aren't the first Vulture Capitalists to purchase residential loan books, they will abide by the CCMA, or be forced to.

Villa05 · 15-02-2014 12:35pm

dinnyirwin wrote: »

Why do you mention SCD at every opportunity?
Everyone knows its not just SCD, yet you keep mentioning it and then accusing others of mentioning it.

"Could" and "coming years".

How about just "hasnt" and "doesnt look likely."

Its almost a year since this thread started?
Shoulda, Woulda, Coulda.

Mousetail is right. The question has been answered long ago.

Well done on dodging the main points and focusing on minute detail. Join the others in the Bull corner and ignore the main issues and they will go away...

gaius c · 15-02-2014 12:36pm

Villa05 wrote: »

Another story of a permanent, pensionable €88,000 p/a salary struggling to survive
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2014/02/13/as-benefit-creep-meets-wage-shrink-whats-the-point-in-anyone-working

How do the majority of households on 40k or less with nowhere near the same pension and job security manage?

That's not far off half of all households in the country btw.
I'm going to reserve sympathy because we know very little about the Floppy Haired One's quoted case. What borrowings did they saddle themselves with? Six children? Pretty much everybody I know understands that having kids is a responsibility and that you need to live within your means.

MouseTail wrote: »

Census stats concur, those renting are more likely to be young and/or foreign nationals. Why someone would argue this, i don't know, its completely intuitive. Cant link, but read "The roof over our heads" from CSO.

I don't think that's the issue but the word "transient" was used and there was also the implication that it's okay to treat mortgage holders not paying their way very differently to renters not paying their way because people renting their house off the bank are "not transient" while those who rent from a landlord are.

The facts aren't the issue. The agenda behind them is.

gaius c · 15-02-2014 12:37pm

D3PO wrote: »

They do indeed move along fine for Start very easy to handly handfulls of repos. For repos to impact the market your talking valumes of tens on the current rate being required.

I really cant understand how 6 years into this mess that anybody can genuinely believe that all of a sudent a repo tidal wave will com forth and shatter house prices.

you dont need to be an economics genius to realise thats implausible completely.

Your argument reminds me of the start of the film La Haine. He describes falling off a building, flying through the air and says to himself "so far, so good".

dinnyirwin · 15-02-2014 12:39pm

Villa05 wrote: »

Well done on dodging the main points and focusing on minute detail. Join the others in the Bull corner and ignore the main issues and they will go away...

Haha, do you hear who is talking.
Cant say im in either corner. But i know whats going on in front of me.

The_Morrigan · 15-02-2014 12:46pm

In light of some of the recent posts saying that this thread has had it's answer the mods have had a quick discussion and we think it's time to end it. 2014 may bring a new insight into the treatment of those within the property market, but 2013 did not live up to the article in the OP.

Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’

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