UFC 205: Alvarez v McGregor (Event Discussion) - FAQ's in OP

wonderfullife · 09-11-2016 3:14pm

McGregor via Decision

Mellor wrote: »

Off his back, likely against the cage. The guillotine will be there (as will the arching elbow finish which is a real threat). Conor won't purposely go to the ground. But if the bell is approaching it might be a no-lose attack, or if Eddie actually completes the takedown.

The factors that cinched it for me were;

In all the SBG rolling videos I've seen, the guillotine is something that features a lot. I've seen John go for it verses Gunni, where Gunni did that back bridge escape. Conor used the same escape verses Mendes on instinct, so he's probably quite familiar.

Prior to the Aldo fight, John said Conor "has a fantastic guillotine off his back". Which is where Eddie wants to put him.

In the last Jiu Jitsu match we've seen him he. He went for a Guillotine just after the 5min mark. It actually cost him the match, but the fact that he went for it rather than looking for the back suggests to me it's a preferred sub.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yy_-YlW_DN4

And he's been training/rolling with Dilion Danis, who won NoGi Pan Absolute division by submitting both opponents with guillotines - obviously he picked up a thing or two from the best guillotiner in the world, Marcelo.

If it ever gonna happen, this is it. John, Dillion, Marcelo. All the guillotines are lining up. It's a long shot obviously, but the odds reflect that.

Interesting. More interesting because something Dillon said in an obscure interview post-202 stuck out to me. I think it was with Submission Radio but might have been somewhere else. He said in a roundabout way that he was certain Conor could catch Nate (off his back). Now that might have been hinting at anything but he said, quote, "there's a few techniques Conor is amazing at".

Whether that was a throwaway comment or whether Conor has a particularly top level guillotine, i don't know. But still interesting. More interesting, if you pay attention to the footage coming out from all sources is Conor has been drilling that Buchinger level-change A LOT. It might be misdirection. But i'm gonna throw out a wild guess and say it's very realistic he level changes and shoots on an incoming Eddie trying to come off the fence like Buchinger.

wonderfullife · 09-11-2016 6:05pm

McGregor via Decision

Jaysus. Wonderboy doing the open workouts with his dad, who looks in UNREAL shape. I've no clue how old he is, must be in his 50's and he's like a ninja himself.

Head Wreck · 09-11-2016 6:18pm

wonderfullife wrote:

Whether that was a throwaway comment or whether Conor has a particularly top level guillotine, i don't know. But still interesting. More interesting, if you pay attention to the footage coming out from all sources is Conor has been drilling that Buchinger level-change A LOT. It might be misdirection. But i'm gonna throw out a wild guess and say it's very realistic he level changes and shoots on an incoming Eddie trying to come off the fence like Buchinger.

What does this "level change" mean.?

wonderfullife · 09-11-2016 6:31pm

McGregor via Decision

Head Wreck wrote: »

What does this "level change" mean.?

Roughly what it sounds like!

Imagine you stand up straight - that's one level.

Then imagine you go to try grab someone by the legs - you change the level of your body.

It's maybe more complicated but in laymans terms it's basically just a quick adjustment of the level of your body to shoot for a takedown.

Level changes are also important in striking. Conor does some nice striking from level changes. I.e. Faint as if you're going to try grab the legs, but instead deliver a straight left punch or high left kick.

It keeps other fighters guessing. Tyron Woodley uses level-change faints a lot. He ducks down as if to shoot for a takedown and then KABOOM he throws that right hand and flattens people with a punch.

Head Wreck · 09-11-2016 6:36pm

wonderfullife wrote:

Imagine you stand up straight - that's one level.

wonderfullife wrote:

Then imagine you go to try grab someone by the legs - you change the level of your body.

Ah I see. I thought it was something more complex than that haha.

McGregor nearly lost his balance from the spinning kick, just caught his balance in time as bushinger was rushing in.

wonderfullife · 09-11-2016 6:41pm

McGregor via Decision

Head Wreck wrote: »

Ah I see. I thought it was something more complex than that haha.

McGregor nearly lost his balance from the spinning kick, just caught his balance in time as bushinger was rushing in.

To level change from a spinning kick into a double-leg or single-leg takedown is very difficult to do. It takes amazing spatial awareness and balance.

That fight is still a lot of peoples favourite fight he's been in. He just looked BEAST mode.

Junior D · 09-11-2016 7:20pm

Would anybody have any idea where to watch the Mcgregor fight in Amsterdam? Tried emailing the hotel but no response

Swashbuckler · 09-11-2016 8:38pm

McGregor via Decision

The 209 have arrived. Nate's in New York.

Richard tea · 09-11-2016 9:20pm

McGregor via Decision

Swashbuckler wrote: »

The 209 have arrived. Nate's in New York.

Have the Diaz bothers given any predictions.

wonderfullife · 09-11-2016 9:42pm

McGregor via Decision

Richard tea wrote: »

Have the Diaz bothers given any predictions.

Nate predicted he'd beat both Conor and Eddie if that counts :pac:

Really saddens me how they're handling Chris Weidman this week. Wheeling him out to the face-off today. He should be with the top 3 title fights at the Presser tomorrow.

Richard tea · 09-11-2016 9:53pm

McGregor via Decision

wonderfullife wrote: »

Nate predicted he'd beat both Conor and Eddie if that counts :pac:

Really saddens me how they're handling Chris Weidman this week. Wheeling him out to the face-off today. He should be with the top 3 title fights at the Presser tomorrow.

Where did u see this?

wonderfullife · 09-11-2016 10:38pm

McGregor via Decision

Junior D wrote: »

Would anybody have any idea where to watch the Mcgregor fight in Amsterdam? Tried emailing the hotel but no response

Hey man. Did some digging for you.

SatelliteSportsCafe in Amsterdam is showing the entire card.

Catch = it's 15 euro a ticket. However you get 2 free pints of Heineken for the 15 quid.

So really it's a fiver in.

Edit:

Details: Address: Leidseplein 11, 1017 PS Amsterdam, Netherlands
Phone: +31 20 427 2529

Gamebred · 09-11-2016 10:41pm

Alvarez via Submission

Can see the oblique kick coming back into his game plan in this fight, Also worth noting Eddie does like switching to southpaw sometimes so the leg kicks will come back instantly if he does.

wonderfullife · 09-11-2016 10:48pm

McGregor via Decision

Gamebred wrote: »

Can see the oblique kick coming back into his game plan in this fight, Also worth noting Eddie does like switching to southpaw sometimes so the leg kicks will come back instantly if he does.

Roddy was switching stances in the open workouts if anybody was paying attention. Not saying that means anything, per se, but it lends weight to your point.

Oblique kicks and teeps will form a big part of the gameplan. The most noteworthy thing Conor said in the past few months was when he said "one of those elbows, one of those shots, will dig into the sweet spot at the temple and that'll be all she wrote".

I find that noteworthy because he tends to pick out shots in advance he intends to employ and he used the elbow repeatedly in the 4th round against Diaz when he was expecting straight lefts. I think we'll see many elbows thrown in attack and defence.

Head Wreck · 09-11-2016 10:53pm

wonderfullife wrote:

I find that noteworthy because he tends to pick out shots in advance he intends to employ and he used the elbow repeatedly in the 4th round against Diaz when he was expecting straight lefts. I think we'll see many elbows thrown in attack and defence.

I noticed he threw a nice little spinning elbow at Roddy in the workouts earlier too, right twards the beard.I was thinking to myself, if that connects it breaks bones

Gamebred · 09-11-2016 10:54pm

Alvarez via Submission

Yeah the kicking game although risky will surely be deployed,the round kick to the body Pettis has a lethal one and hurt Eddie with it can see Conor busting his gas tank with them.

wonderfullife · 09-11-2016 10:57pm

McGregor via Decision

Gamebred wrote: »

Yeah the kicking game although risky will surely be deployed,the round kick to the body Pettis has a lethal one and hurt Eddie with it can see Conor busting his gas tank with them.

I had to laugh....Dan Hooker in the videos i linked of his breakdown, he emphasised 3 techniques. The front kick/teep, the whipping round-kick and the straight left to the body.

Within the space of 20 seconds, Conor threw all 3 at Roddy.

Mystic Dan! Incidentally i think both Dan and Kai Kara France have big futures.

Mellor · 10-11-2016 12:24am

McGregor via Decision

Head Wreck wrote: »

What does this "level change" mean.?

Head Wreck wrote: »

Ah I see. I thought it was something more complex than that haha.

McGregor nearly lost his balance from the spinning kick, just caught his balance in time as bushinger was rushing in.

He overbalanced forward after throwing the kick, he caught himself before Buchinger rushed in, and ducked under him for the takedown - that duck is the level change

dave1982 · 10-11-2016 12:44am

Anyone see Eddie bull rushing him up against the cage from the start keep him there wear him out?

scudzilla · 10-11-2016 12:46am

McGregor via Decision

dave1982 wrote: »

Anyone see Eddie bull rushing him up against the cage from the start keep him there wear him out?

and getting caught with a peach of a right, knocking him right out, yeah, i see that happening

dave1982 · 10-11-2016 12:49am

scudzilla wrote: »

and getting caught with a peach of a right, knocking him right out, yeah, i see that happening

he safe fro the left so with that tactic

KeepTheFaith · 10-11-2016 1:09am

It will be very interesting to see what happens if Conor visibly tires in the second as he did in the last two fights or if Eddie rocks Conor and smells blood. He showed against RDA that he will stand back and swing for all he's worth. Conor did well at the end of round 3 against Nate in similar circumstances but had the bell not came when it did, could have been lights out.

After the travesty of an election and our faith in mankind and the future of the world as we know being rocked... We could reaaaallly do with a McGregor victory here.

Tinie · 10-11-2016 1:12am

McGregor via Decision

scudzilla wrote: »

and getting caught with a peach of a right, knocking him right out, yeah, i see that happening

Conors well known for those powerful peachy rights aint he

dave1982 · 10-11-2016 1:19am

Seen Flyod will be there Saturday night :pac:

Tinie · 10-11-2016 1:39am

McGregor via Decision

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1528NypvXQ

Khabib on the brink of suplexing Helwani through the ground

Duff · 10-11-2016 1:49am

McGregor via Decision

"Why you not talk with me like friend?"

Best interview ever. Ariel straight out the gate with "You were used to get Alvarez on board, you know it and I know it" or something along those lines. Savage enough.

Depp · 10-11-2016 1:55am

McGregor via Decision

Duff wrote: »

"Why you not talk with me like friend?"

Best interview ever. Ariel straight out the gate with "You were used to get Alvarez on board, you know it and I know it" or something along those lines. Savage enough.

for a man who makes his living interviewing trained fighters he really can be fearless at times! great interview

wonderfullife · 10-11-2016 2:05am

McGregor via Decision

Depp wrote: »

for a man who makes his living interviewing trained fighters he really can be fearless at times! great interview

Ariel is a beast and has this way about him, especially with the likes of Rampage or Mayhem Miller, where he can be deadpan serious for a few mins and then break into a smile..... or it can go the other way and Mayhem wrecks the set and Ariel starts to cry.

He's the best either way. I warmed to Khabib a little bit there. He's still on my cold list for his ties to dictators though.

Useful.Idiot · 10-11-2016 2:06am

McGregor via Decision

Ariel's like the Louis Theroux of MMA interviewing

Zero-Cool · 10-11-2016 2:15am

McGregor via Decision

Ariel wrecked Khabib there and I loved it :PAC: Ariel the real #1 LW contender.

Clive · 10-11-2016 9:47am

Mellor wrote: »

But I also placed a bet on Conor by Guillotine. A value bet, rather than likely outcome.
There's method to my madness.

That's a good bet, if there is a submission that's what it likely will be. Conor has a mean guillotine, and Alvarez, although he's quite disciplined with his head position when clinching against the fence, during his entry to that position it's often a little loose.

TimRiggins · 10-11-2016 9:50am

McGregor via Decision

Khabib is lucky Ariel didn't get physical there.

JoeyJJ · 10-11-2016 10:28am

Khabib is very worked up, he better leave that behind quick.

Mellor · 10-11-2016 10:47am

McGregor via Decision

JoeyJJ wrote: »

Khabib is very worked up, he better leave that behind quick.

Ah he's approaching the end of a weight cut, he's allowed be cranky imo
A good feed on friday and he'll be grand

.ak · 10-11-2016 11:05am

Junior D wrote: »

Would anybody have any idea where to watch the Mcgregor fight in Amsterdam? Tried emailing the hotel but no response

Try emailing O'Reilly's? Not sure what the license laws are like there but it was packed for the All Blacks match last week.

Edit: sorry just seen the post from wonderfullife - what a champ!

14murphy · 10-11-2016 11:13am

McGregor via Decision

In the airport on the way to NY. Heading over ticketless but I got money up this morning so if anyone has to going spare hit me up will be in the airport all morning and in NY from around 6 pm.

wonderfullife · 10-11-2016 12:27pm

McGregor via Decision

14murphy wrote: »

In the airport on the way to NY. Heading over ticketless but I got money up this morning so if anyone has to going spare hit me up will be in the airport all morning and in NY from around 6 pm.

http://www.viagogo.ie/Sports-Tickets/Other-Sports/UFC-Tickets/E-1881431

There's 79 left on viagogo, so not sure if this will help or not, but you're looking at a grand each to get in the door. If you're quick there's 2 left in Row 118 for €876 a ticket (which is tremendous value as most are going for €1,400+ in that level).

I don't think people can go wrong being in NY even if you can't get a ticket. The presser and weigh-ins will be phenomenal experiences.

JoeyJJ · 10-11-2016 1:38pm

Any ref assignments announced? Big John for Conor fight hopefully.

califano · 10-11-2016 3:14pm

Alvarez via Decision

Kim Winslow

JoeyJJ · 10-11-2016 4:51pm

lol I'd say so alright

That_Guy · 10-11-2016 6:10pm

Been ages since I've been able to watch fights. Work's hectic timetable lately has been mental.

That said, I graduate tomorrow and have the entire weekend free for beers and fights. I've missed this place. Though, when we get a load of random heads spouting nonsense come Saturday night, I may retract that statement.

I'll cram all the Embedded episodes and the weigh in's on Saturday evening before the first prelim and get myself into a tizzy.

Awwwww yeah.

Head Wreck · 10-11-2016 6:11pm

14murphy wrote:

In the airport on the way to NY. Heading over ticketless but I got money up this morning so if anyone has to going spare hit me up will be in the airport all morning and in NY from around 6 pm.

wonderfullife wrote:

There's 79 left on viagogo, so not sure if this will help or not, but you're looking at a grand each to get in the door. If you're quick there's 2 left in Row 118 for â‚¬876 a ticket (which is tremendous value as most are going for â‚¬1,400+ in that level).

There is someone on the other UFC205 thread, he is in NY trying to sell for face value. He posted yesterday

ASOT · 10-11-2016 6:48pm

McGregor via Decision

Cannot wait. I think Karolina is basking in the moment a bit to much; JJ will put on a show.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJkTqRPnIfA

Depp · 10-11-2016 7:18pm

McGregor via Decision

''The first event in MSG and my chance at capturing the second world title'' how does that feel? ''Familliar'' classic stuff again, his head really seems to be in a good place in the run up to this!

Hazys · 10-11-2016 7:25pm

McGregor via Decision

No denying Dee is pregnant in the latest video (3:36). They didn't even try to hide it, they actually highlighted her by putting her name on screen too. I guess the cat has been out of the bag awhile now anyway. TBF it was a very hard thing to keep under wraps considering how much Conor was on camera and Dee will be in attendance in MSG. The only way to have kept the secret for the big reveal is if Dee stayed back in Ireland but obviously she wanted to be there.

Gamebred · 10-11-2016 8:09pm

Alvarez via Submission

He's gonna dedicate a belt each to his unborn twin boys in his speech when Edward falls,

Odds on Conor being late for the press conference? 1/100 imo.

Gamebred · 10-11-2016 8:09pm

Alvarez via Submission

He's gonna dedicate a belt each to his unborn twin boys in his speech when Edward falls,

Odds on Conor being late for the press conference? 1/100 imo.

Clandestine · 10-11-2016 8:36pm

All title fights this year have either ended in the first round or gone the distance.
I see the straw-weight fight going the distance, but lightweight and welterweight title fights are both going to end in the first.

Personally, I'll say JJ, Thompson and Eddie will win

califano · 10-11-2016 8:59pm

Alvarez via Decision

I think the announcement will be that he isn't relinquishing either belt but is stepping away for a while so if you want to strip me of both belts then strip me but if/when i come back it's for the biggest money fights only as i've done the whole belts thing.

I get the impression he's not to pleased hes never broken bread with the new owners and that grates with him which makes me feel he's happy they put it in their pipe and smoke it.

ASOT · 10-11-2016 9:02pm

McGregor via Decision

califano wrote: »

I think the announcement will be that he isn't relinquishing either belt but is stepping away for a while so if you want to strip me of both belts then strip me but if/when i come back it's for the biggest money fights only as i've done the whole belts thing.

I get the impression he's not to pleased hes never broken bread with the new owners and that grates with him which makes me feel he's happy they put it in their pipe and smoke it.

Hes already said hes not taking a break.

UFC 205: Alvarez v McGregor (Event Discussion) - FAQ's in OP

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