United Ireland Poll - please vote

landofthetree · 21-04-2021 2:57pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The Irish government can pressure for a poll. They are equal signatories and guardians of the GFA.

Nope.

Boris says no.

No UK PM is going to want be the one that goes down in history as breaking up the UK.

Fionn1952 · 21-04-2021 3:02pm

landofthetree wrote: »

Nope.

Boris says no.

No UK PM is going to want be the one that goes down in history as breaking up the UK.

Ah yes, Boris who has been a faithful friend to NI, always delivered on his promises and with a reputation for his never failing honesty.....

If there was a modicum of personal benefit in it for him, he'd be the first waving goodbye to NI. Given how the British public were scooped up by the £350m a week to the NHS propaganda, I don't think it is too hard to imagine a reality where the Tories could generate a bit of positive publicity for themselves by jettisoning NI.

Not even taking into consideration that the UK could be broken already by the Scottish at that point, which would take a significant chunk who actually do give a toss about NI out of the equation.

joseywhales · 21-04-2021 3:15pm

Patience. Let the walls slowly tighten around them, let the economic disparity become even more apparent and let them become an ever greater burden for a financially struggling Britain to maintain. My only concern is that we will all become too greedy and selfish in the meantime to take on the burden ourselves. I still think its worth it, given the greater security and sovereignty a united island would have on the world stage. Also the increased potential to build a larger economy after a couple of generations. Ireland as a country is still in it's infancy, if we want to be around for a thousand years, even as bit part small state, we would have to take the opportunity if it arose.

FrancieBrady · 21-04-2021 3:24pm

landofthetree wrote: »

Nope.

Boris says no.

No UK PM is going to want be the one that goes down in history as breaking up the UK.

No British PM will ever accept a border in the Irish Sea.

Junkyard Tom · 21-04-2021 4:25pm

joseywhales wrote: »

I still think its worth it, given the greater security

For me security is the greatest prize of Unification. It will be a relief when British military personnel will need permission to be on Irish soil.

Britain will remain the potentially malevolent force it always has been but we can form alliances that will offset the threat.

Ireland is in a strategically valuable position, Lough Foyle would be a good naval base for patrolling the north Atlantic corridor.

Hamsterchops · 22-04-2021 2:42pm

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Britain will remain the potentially malevolent force it always has been but we can form alliances that will offset the threat.

A malevolent (evil) force, really :cool:

You mean like they might nuke, or gas us, or something else. Not sure I buy into your dark thoughts of British malevolence.

Bit OTT don't you think.

FrancieBrady · 22-04-2021 2:53pm

Hamsterchops wrote: »

A malevolent (evil) force, really :cool:

You mean like they might nuke, or gas us, or something else. Not sure I buy into your dark thoughts of British malevolence.

Bit OTT don't you think.

They allegedly bombed several of our towns and our capital not so long ago HC.

Hamsterchops · 22-04-2021 3:03pm

OK then, best keep Britain at arms length, just in case they strike again. Thankfully there is sea between us.

FrancieBrady · 22-04-2021 3:05pm

Hamsterchops wrote: »

OK then, best keep Britain at arms length, just in case they strike again. Thankfully there is sea between us.

I think that would be the general view of the Tory administration in the EU at the moment.

joseywhales · 22-04-2021 3:36pm

As far as I can tell, we didn't set up plantations in Britain, so I would say its clear who the aggressor is, it may seem cosy right now but human behavior is the same as it was 500 years ago and in more difficult times, such as regional wars or global famine we cannot rely on the good will of our historical bully to suddenly overcome her more aggressive tendencies. The sooner we have them off the island the safer we will all be.

BonnieSituation · 22-04-2021 4:30pm

joseywhales wrote: »

As far as I can tell, we didn't set up plantations in Britain, so I would say its clear who the aggressor is, it may seem cosy right now but human behavior is the same as it was 500 years ago and in more difficult times, such as regional wars or global famine we cannot rely on the good will of our historical bully to suddenly overcome her more aggressive tendencies. The sooner we have them off the island the safer we will all be.

Do the Dál Riada count?

Junkyard Tom · 22-04-2021 5:19pm

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Bit OTT don't you think.

No. Below is a US source that would be fairly Atlanticist.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUz7q5UrRSk

joseywhales · 22-04-2021 5:38pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Do the Dál Riada count?

I suppose, less of an organised plantation though and I guess Ireland didn't have a single identity then.

Anyway strategically for the survival of the country, it makes sense that you would not want a foreign military on your island nor a more powerful country with sovereignty claims on your island. I don't see why we wouldn't vote for unification even if it costs us economically for a generation or two.

BonnieSituation · 22-04-2021 5:51pm

joseywhales wrote: »

I suppose, less of an organised plantation though and I guess Ireland didn't have a single identity then.

Anyway strategically for the survival of the country, it makes sense that you would not want a foreign military on your island nor a more powerful country with sovereignty claims on your island. I don't see why we wouldn't vote for unification even if it costs us economically for a generation or two.

True. But I was just joking.

downcow · 22-04-2021 6:27pm

blanch152 wrote: »

I agree, that poll is a bodyblow to unification with supporting dropping vis-a-vis last year.

Have you ideas as to why support for a united Ireland is dropping in the North?

Great question

downcow · 22-04-2021 6:29pm

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Just listening to Neale Richmond on BBC NI Talkback.

Now if you'd said 5 years ago that a prominent FG politician would be on a flagship BBC NI radio show advocating a United Ireland everyone reading this would have laughed and the partitonistas would have sneered.

All this too in the middle of one of the biggest global crises in a century? The earth is moving under our feet.

Remarkable.

Now I didn’t hear it all but he certainly wasn’t advocating it while I was listening. He also said that Irish should be open to discussing rejoining the UK

downcow · 22-04-2021 6:32pm

joseywhales wrote: »

As far as I can tell, we didn't set up plantations in Britain, so I would say its clear who the aggressor is, it may seem cosy right now but human behavior is the same as it was 500 years ago and in more difficult times, such as regional wars or global famine we cannot rely on the good will of our historical bully to suddenly overcome her more aggressive tendencies. The sooner we have them off the island the safer we will all be.

Try and make sure you wait until after they have given you their excess vaccines

downcow · 22-04-2021 6:34pm

joseywhales wrote: »

I suppose, less of an organised plantation though and I guess Ireland didn't have a single identity then.

Anyway strategically for the survival of the country, it makes sense that you would not want a foreign military on your island nor a more powerful country with sovereignty claims on your island. I don't see why we wouldn't vote for unification even if it costs us economically for a generation or two.

As I always say my history is not great and I may need corrected, but I understand the brits arrived on the island at the invitation of an Irish king

Shebean · 22-04-2021 6:34pm

downcow wrote: »

Now I didn’t hear it all but he certainly wasn’t advocating it while I was listening. He also said that Irish should be open to discussing rejoining the UK

To give up on democracy altogether? Do we think Boris Johnson would take us under his wing?

Junkyard Tom · 22-04-2021 6:40pm

downcow wrote: »

Now I didn’t hear it all but he certainly wasn’t advocating it while I was listening. He also said that Irish should be open to discussing rejoining the UK

In a United Ireland former unionists will be welcome to advocate that Ireland leaves the European Union for the United Kingdom.

OldfashionedBasicEstuarinecrocodile-size_restricted.gif

joseywhales · 22-04-2021 7:22pm

downcow wrote: »

As I always say my history is not great and I may need corrected, but I understand the brits arrived on the island at the invitation of an Irish king

I think it was the french actually they had just subjected the brits to their rule. I wouldn't really call him a king at that stage, he had been exiled and fled to france.

blanch152 · 22-04-2021 11:03pm

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

No. Below is a US source that would be fairly Atlanticist.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUz7q5UrRSk

Haven't seen anything as simplistic since I was in primary school. Possibly the most superficial analysis ever.

Junkyard Tom · 22-04-2021 11:30pm

blanch152 wrote: »

Haven't seen anything as simplistic since I was in primary school. Possibly the most superficial analysis ever.

It's a short video on YouTube not a PHD thesis on the British State's shameful history in Ireland.

FrancieBrady · 23-04-2021 11:29am

You've got to hand it to Arlene and the DUP really. 19% have changed their view. That's amazing.

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blanch152 · 23-04-2021 11:44am

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You've got to hand it to Arlene and the DUP really. 19% swing? That's amazing.

Trust you to post a misleading graphic, that Lucid Talk have already had to clarify.

https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1385537446981554179/photo/1

FrancieBrady · 23-04-2021 12:04pm

blanch152 wrote: »

Trust you to post a misleading graphic, that Lucid Talk have already had to clarify.

https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1385537446981554179/photo/1

Fair enough...post edited.

Fionn1952 · 23-04-2021 12:17pm

blanch152 wrote: »

Trust you to post a misleading graphic, that Lucid Talk have already had to clarify.

https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1385537446981554179/photo/1

One thing that's quite clear from that graph is that the Alliance/Green/Other voting contingent isn't as heavily soft-Unionist leaning as some have suggested/hoped, though previously seemed to prefer the status quo over the unknown.

As expected, the majority of staunch Unionists will take whatever is given to them so long as they get to say they're part of the UK, the majority of staunch Nationalists would let the whole place go down in a blaze of glory if it meant Unification.....and the real decision will be carried by the middle ground, and that group has had a very significant sentiment shift towards Unification due to Brexit. Arlene and Co doing more for the cause than the Shinners really.

blanch152 · 23-04-2021 12:25pm

Fionn1952 wrote: »

One thing that's quite clear from that graph is that the Alliance/Green/Other voting contingent isn't as heavily soft-Unionist leaning as some have suggested/hoped, though previously seemed to prefer the status quo over the unknown.

As expected, the majority of staunch Unionists will take whatever is given to them so long as they get to say they're part of the UK, the majority of staunch Nationalists would let the whole place go down in a blaze of glory if it meant Unification.....and the real decision will be carried by the middle ground, and that group has had a very significant sentiment shift towards Unification due to Brexit. Arlene and Co doing more for the cause than the Shinners really.

When you delve into the figures, it was soft nationalists hardening position that was the change. They are equally likely to have moved back thanks to faster vaccinations.

Fionn1952 · 23-04-2021 12:50pm

blanch152 wrote: »

When you delve into the figures, it was soft nationalists hardening position that was the change. They are equally likely to have moved back thanks to faster vaccinations.

So the poll is useful and accurate for the figures you like on it, pointless and outdated for the ones you don't, with complete and utter supposition backed by nothing as the icing on the cake?

The biggest shift in position was demonstrated among the APNI/Green/Other parties.....hardly soft nationalists hardening their position if your usual positioning of those parties is to be believed, Blanch.

blanch152 · 23-04-2021 2:18pm

Fionn1952 wrote: »

So the poll is useful and accurate for the figures you like on it, pointless and outdated for the ones you don't, with complete and utter supposition backed by nothing as the icing on the cake?

The biggest shift in position was demonstrated among the APNI/Green/Other parties.....hardly soft nationalists hardening their position if your usual positioning of those parties is to be believed, Blanch.

You can spin the poll as many which ways as you want, but the hard facts are that after Brexit, at a time when we are told that the demographic dividend is arriving and SF are more popular than ever, the lead in favour of staying in the UK has increased from 1.5% to 6% over the last 15 months.

Fionn1952 · 23-04-2021 2:26pm

blanch152 wrote: »

You can spin the poll as many which ways as you want, but the hard facts are that after Brexit, at a time when we are told that the demographic dividend is arriving and SF are more popular than ever, the lead in favour of staying in the UK has increased from 1.5% to 6% over the last 15 months.

When you compare polls asking different questions perchance, Blanch?

SF are more popular than ever?! Their support is dropping in the North.

I'm always perplexed as to why those like yourself who are absolutely certain that there's no chance of Unification happening any time soon are always so defensive about it? Methinks he doth protest too much...

blanch152 · 23-04-2021 2:31pm

Fionn1952 wrote: »

When you compare polls asking different questions perchance, Blanch?

SF are more popular than ever?! Their support is dropping in the North.

I'm always perplexed as to why those like yourself who are absolutely certain that there's no chance of Unification happening any time soon are always so defensive about it? Methinks he doth protest too much...

We are told that SF are more popular than ever, haven't we had posters telling us for the last year that they are the most popular political party on this island?

You may think what you like, but I enjoy calling out nonsense.

Fionn1952 · 23-04-2021 2:39pm

blanch152 wrote: »

We are told that SF are more popular than ever, haven't we had posters telling us for the last year that they are the most popular political party on this island?

You may think what you like, but I enjoy calling out nonsense.

Maybe take that up with people making those arguments instead of trying to strawman it into a point you're making in a discussion with me?

I've never made that point, we've had posters say all sorts of nonsense.....if I'm discussing something with you, I'm not going to try and dispute your point by arguing against what some lunatic said in a different thread, on a different topic that you had nothing to do with.....perhaps if you want to discuss something with any sort of integrity, that should be part of the most basic of standards of debate?

FrancieBrady · 23-04-2021 3:01pm

blanch152 wrote: »

You can spin the poll as many which ways as you want, but the hard facts are that after Brexit, at a time when we are told that the demographic dividend is arriving and SF are more popular than ever, the lead in favour of staying in the UK has increased from 1.5% to 6% over the last 15 months.

SF don't own the concept of a UI...the poll shows you that.

joseywhales · 23-04-2021 3:21pm

You can want a peaceful transition to a ui while simultaneously never even consider voting for sf. They are very different things.

FrancieBrady · 23-04-2021 4:11pm

joseywhales wrote: »

You can want a peaceful transition to a ui while simultaneously never even consider voting for sf. They are very different things.

Absolutely and Unionists and partitionists have their heads in the sand on what now looks like a factual fast moving shift in opinion.

Suits me if they keep it there.

Hamsterchops · 24-04-2021 10:53am

I certainly think that if ever the conditions were right for the maximum Nationalist-Republican vote, now is that time!

...and yet it's not really happening in any dramatic way, yes there is a very slow decrease in the Unionist vote, but nothing dramatic, nothing that would make you think "Now is that time" and yet in theory now is the time, with negative Brexit vibes, the Northern Ireland protocol, supermarket shelves half empty, why doesn't everyone vote to leave the blasted UK and join with us here, under the Tricolour?

If now is not the time, when will be?

As Brexit becomes imbedded and settled, with the UK economy adjusting don't you think the opportunity for separation will have been lost, with supermarket shelves filling up again and a feel good factor returning to the streets of NI Post Covid, surely any future poll will show a gain for the UK vote as stability & confidence returns.

This state was born in the wake & turmoil post WWI, and it could only have happened then because of all the post war upheaval, now 100 years later we're just getting to the end of our wars with Covid & Brexit, and yet, as the dust settles there is no real United Ireland movement, no real push, just loads of chatter & a possibility that it might happen in about 25 years time?

FrancieBrady · 24-04-2021 11:48am

Hamsterchops wrote: »

I certainly think that if ever the conditions were right for the maximum Nationalist-Republican vote, now is that time!

...and yet it's not really happening in any dramatic way, yes there is a very slow decrease in the Unionist vote, but nothing dramatic, nothing that would make you think "Now is that time" and yet in theory now is the time, with negative Brexit vibes, the Northern Ireland protocol, supermarket shelves half empty, why doesn't everyone vote to leave the blasted UK and join with us here, under the Tricolour?

If now is not the time, when will be?

As Brexit becomes imbedded and settled, with the UK economy adjusting don't you think the opportunity for separation will have been lost, with supermarket shelves filling up again and a feel good factor returning to the streets of NI Post Covid, surely any future poll will show a gain for the UK vote as stability & confidence returns.

This state was born in the wake & turmoil post WWI, and it could only have happened then because of all the post war upheaval, now 100 years later we're just getting to the end of our wars with Covid & Brexit, and yet, as the dust settles there is no real United Ireland movement, no real push, just loads of chatter & a possibility that it might happen in about 25 years time?

Independence started with 'chatter' HC. And then the 'chatters' all aligned in a common goal. And it inexorably happened.

The 'chatters' (on the UI side) at the moment are probably closer in ideologies than Connolly and Pearse were so I think we are on an inexorable path to the first Border Poll.

Hamsterchops · 24-04-2021 12:09pm

> > > The first border poll you say, interesting.

You mean it might take more than one bite at the apple before separation (from GB).

FrancieBrady · 24-04-2021 12:18pm

Hamsterchops wrote: »

> > > The first border poll you say, interesting.

You mean it might take more than one bite at the apple before separation (from GB).

It might. Facility is there to revisit the idea if there is a swing in opinion.

BonnieSituation · 24-04-2021 12:19pm

blanch152 wrote: »

When you delve into the figures, it was soft nationalists hardening position that was the change. They are equally likely to have moved back thanks to faster vaccinations.

And continued access to Sainsbury's of course.

BonnieSituation · 24-04-2021 12:22pm

Hamsterchops wrote: »

> > > The first border poll you say, interesting.

You mean it might take more than one bite at the apple before separation (from GB).

Why do you posit such inane questions when you know the answer?

And if you don't know the answer why the hell haven't you heeded any learnings from all of your readings of these threads on the subject?

Hamsterchops · 24-04-2021 12:28pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Why do you posit such inane questions when you know the answer?

And if you don't know the answer why the hell haven't you heeded any learnings from all of your readings of these threads on the subject?

And why do you always abuse my posts in the way that you do? You never miss an opportunity to belittle and trash nearly every post I make.

Obviously you think everything I post is inane crap, but should that stop me posting here, I don't know, should I?

BonnieSituation · 24-04-2021 1:49pm

Hamsterchops wrote: »

And why do you always abuse my posts in the way that you do? You never miss an opportunity to belittle and trash nearly every post I make.

Obviously you think everything I post is inane crap, but should that stop me posting here, I don't know, should I?

I absolutely don't think you should stop posting. Not at all.

But your posts all follow the same format. Weird fawning over Unionism, happy clappy notions about us "being all in this together". Othering nationalist aspirations to boot.

I don't mind if you're looking to learn or be informed, but you don't seem to have any interest in different perspectives and just throw out inanities so often, that I can't take it seriously.

That being said, if I've been taking this up wrong the whole time, I apologise wholeheartedly, and I'll adjust my expectations and judgement of your posts.

Hamsterchops · 24-04-2021 3:38pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That being said, if I've been taking this up wrong the whole time, I apologise wholeheartedly, and I'll adjust my expectations and judgement of your posts.

Yes, obviously you can relax your Unionist guard cuz I'm not a Unionist, but what I do like to do is be Devils advocate, so that I'm not always hammering Unionism or Nationalism, one of my heroes is John Hume which gives you some indication of my leanings, that said I have no time whatsoever for Militant Republicanism or Loyalism. If course if you'd read my posts you'd be aware of this already.

So thanks for your reply, but please don't be so quick to automatically hammer my posts each and every time, there is serious consideration in most of them, some of them are deliberately provocative or thought provoking, some aimed at a different audience, maybe outside of Ireland? But what I always try to do is deflate the ongoing war between certain posters on here who constantly keep sniping ar each other.

Anyway, that is the first time that I read about s border poll being the first (of several)? I always thought that if a border poll was called the chance was it would pass, indeed it wouldn't be called unless it was guaranteed a pass at a UI, so now I see it would be the "first' . . . .

Thanks.

Seathrun66 · 24-04-2021 4:23pm

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Yes, obviously you can relax your Unionist guard cuz I'm not a Unionist, but what I do like to do is be Devils advocate, so that I'm not always hammering Unionism or Nationalism, one of my heroes is John Hume which gives you some indication of my leanings, that said I have no time whatsoever for Militant Republicanism or Loyalism. If course if you'd read my posts you'd be aware of this already.

So thanks for your reply, but please don't be so quick to automatically hammer my posts each and every time, there is serious consideration in most of them, some of them are deliberately provocative or thought provoking, some aimed at a different audience, maybe outside of Ireland? But what I always try to do is deflate the ongoing war between certain posters on here who constantly keep sniping ar each other.

Anyway, that is the first time that I read about s border poll being the first (of several)? I always thought that if a border poll was called the chance was it would pass, indeed it wouldn't be called unless it was guaranteed a pass at a UI, so now I see it would be the "first' . . . .

Thanks.

The NI SoS is obliged to call a poll when it seems likely to pass. But there's no guarantee of that. If there was a poll this year then the outcome would be very tight and I'm unsure which way it would go.

However, as time passes, the demographic changes and Brexit fallout (plus possible Scottish independence) ensure that the pro-UI vote increases yearly. Others will disagree but for me it's hard not to see a UI by 2030.

Kermit.de.frog · 24-04-2021 6:08pm

This English guy on the radio the other day was quite honest and direct!

https://twitter.com/begorabejaysus/status/1381960423654703105

eire4 · 24-04-2021 9:56pm

Seathrun66 wrote: »

The NI SoS is obliged to call a poll when it seems likely to pass. But there's no guarantee of that. If there was a poll this year then the outcome would be very tight and I'm unsure which way it would go.

However, as time passes, the demographic changes and Brexit fallout (plus possible Scottish independence) ensure that the pro-UI vote increases yearly. Others will disagree but for me it's hard not to see a UI by 2030.

I would tend to agree with you. I think you hit the key reasons in terms of brexit, demographic changes and possible Scottish independence. In some ways now I think the virus is covering up the full extent of brexit so how much that accelerates the timescale once the full effects and reality of brexit is clear we will have to see.

downcow · 25-04-2021 7:39am

eire4 wrote: »

I would tend to agree with you. I think you hit the key reasons in terms of brexit, demographic changes and possible Scottish independence. In some ways now I think the virus is covering up the full extent of brexit so how much that accelerates the timescale once the full effects and reality of brexit is clear we will have to see.

Unfortunately the virus is also demonstrating the issues with Northern Ireland’s position on this island.
Infection rates in England Scotland and Wales currently range for 14-24 per 100,000. Although similar vaccine rollout, Ni is way out of sync with 41. Our issues are in border areas and clearly driven by the rate in Roi in the 50s
Not anything anyone can do about it. Just the realities of two nations sharing a land mass

FrancieBrady · 25-04-2021 10:52am

downcow wrote: »

Unfortunately the virus is also demonstrating the issues with Northern Ireland’s position on this island.
Infection rates in England Scotland and Wales currently range for 14-24 per 100,000. Although similar vaccine rollout, Ni is way out of sync with 41. Our issues are in border areas and clearly driven by the rate in Roi in the 50s
Not anything anyone can do about it. Just the realities of two nations sharing a land mass

Still using victims for a bit of precarious triumphalism downcow? Lovely.

United Ireland Poll - please vote

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