Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Panrich · 28-10-2019 9:04am

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Context is different though. In the era of mass loyalist civil dissent, NI was effectively a bitterly divided war zone. It was easy then to go out and protest as if you're defending your side in " the war".

But having secured a peace and especially after setting a working model of power sharing, its going to very difficult for many unionists to go out and protest to the same level.

It's hard to see how someone can rise up in unionist circles to the level now to become a focus point to lead such discord. Historically Gerry Adams became the face of republicanism because of the treatment of nationalists, and Big Ian the focal point of a response to IRA violence, both extreme positions.

The fact that SF have basically stayed quiet on the issue just points out to unionists that they don't have their traditional enemy to blame and to go out and protest is just a signal to the Tories that they are troublesome and the tories should go ahead and lance the British boil by instigating a border poll.

I hope that you’re right in this. The worry is that there is a vacuum in normal politics in the North ever since Stormont has been sidelined.

It doesn’t take much imagination to see radicals on either side emerge from this scenario.

woohoo!!! · 28-10-2019 9:07am

I do hope Jamie gets his protests up and running. It'll be hilarious when the feared loyalist apocalyptic movement turns out to be akin to something out of fr. Ted. Massively overestimating their own hand and constant cock ups, that's the DUP.

They'll still get their votes cos the NI elections are just a sectarian head count. The alliance vote is the one to watch.

Russman · 28-10-2019 9:13am

liamtech wrote: »

First of all i should like to re-iterate that i am very much in agreement with most posters on this site, including those quoted - il nutshell this to avoid rambling
Brexit is a terrible idea, and the fact the Leave side blatantly lied in the referendum should never be forgotten

The deal if implemented is going to be economically damaging to both the UK, and NI - and ireland in fairness

Finally its true that no one in northern ireland got what they wanted given the ref result, and the negotiations - and the fact that BoJo is not gonna give a second ref to remedy this

The problems as i see them and in contrast to you guys would be as follows - this is mainly hypothetical but it is not without precedent, hence i feel discussing it is perfectly valid - so here goes

1. Yes the hard border on the 6 counties was avoided in this deal, and i commend that. What i merely highlight is the fact that NI is locked into the CM/CU while the rest of the UK leaves, and if you can play devils advocate for a moment, and look at this from a Unionist POV, you will see the problem - the union is altered - now we may all believe this is not only beneficial in avoiding trouble on the border, but also beneficial economically, and i believe this is true! But we need to accept that economics is not the primary motivating factor for many in Northern Ireland. The 'Other Community' i was referring to was of course the Unionist/Loyalist population of the North. If they behave pragmatically, accepting the trade off, acknowledging the benefits, this deal will function adequately. This will require the broad Unionist community to effectively vote with their heads when ever given the opportunity. The genuine problem is i don't see them doing this. Unionists have for the most part voted DUP knowing full well that they originally opposed the GFA, and are the most extreme Unionist faction on the ballot paper (lets forget Jim Allister shall we). Said Party does not co-operate in power sharing, even when they were in GVT before the RHI Collapse.

2. The fact is that there is likely to be large scale protests if this deal goes ahead. I wouldnt be against peaceful protests, but in all sincerity, one must ask the question. Do the DUP, and their supporters know what a peaceful protest is? The Flag fiasco demonstrates that they dont, and that was only over the flag. What we are talking about here is by definition the biggest change in the status of Northern Ireland since partition. One could argue this was inevitable given the UK Decision on Brexit, more so their decision to do a Hard 'Leaving CU/CM' deal. I studied the troubles in college as part of an International Relations Degree and i can tell u that the Sunningdale Agreement, along with previous attempts at reconciling the problem of the north led to not just protests, but civil disobedience, wide spread strike, and violence. Hard core loyalism wont accept this deal. And all you need is a new 'Paisley' or 'Bill Craig' to whip up general opposition against this deal, and it will all happen again. Moderate Unionists will be incensed into taking sides, and those that dont could eventually fall into line by way of coercive tactics. The UVF used violence to enforce a Unionist strike against Sunningdale, so again nothing is unprecedented in this scenario. Unionism always behaves in Tribal fashion and when push comes to shove, the union will be the issue that unites them

3. Finally i have to conclude by saying its DEFINITELY not black and white. Despite the fact that Ireland and the EU behaved in the only way they could, with respect and genuine sincerity towards the UK, the narrative is already being spun that this 'violation of the union' is our fault. This narrative has existed all along with accusations of Dublin using the EU, and vice versa, to hold Ulster hostage etc - it doesnt matter that this is not the truth, this is the narrative that is being spun - and it will be where the rage is directed if this deal actually comes in to force. Even if ireland wished to say 'not our problem' at that point, it will in short order become our problem

Happy to discuss further, respectful as always

I broadly agree with you here, but it also highlights two things for me:

1) They’re still in the realm of unicorns re the Union being altered. It’s simply not possible to have as hard a Brexit as TM wanted and not change the Union to some degree or other. Whether they realised that in 2016 or not is neither here nor there. It’s like voting to cut your arm off because your finger is sore, but demanding you still have two arms, and insisting it’s up to the doctor to compromise.

2) the inherent hypocrisy of the DUP. When it’s pointed out that NI voted remain they insist it was a UK wide vote and that’s what needs to be respected. Yet when the UK parliament decides on a withdrawal agreement for the “good” of the UK as a whole they scream bloody murder about their wishes not being respected.

I don’t know how it plays out, but I suspect it’ll take the hardship biting hard to bring sense to them both up there and across the water via the farmers, traders and any normal people, because the hard core aren’t for learning and if they’re pandered to further it damages us in the republic.

bazermc · 28-10-2019 10:20am

What time is the vote on election motion due at?

Enzokk · 28-10-2019 10:31am

Extension secured, no fuss from France or Hungary or Poland as expected.

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1188748108764721152?s=20

"The EU27 has agreed that it will accept the UK's request for a #Brexit flextension until 31 January 2020. The decision is expected to be formalised through a written procedure."

hometruths · 28-10-2019 10:35am

Surely with extension agreed, No Deal is off the table until January 30th.

Can Labour credibly refuse an election in December today? Their conditions for backing an election have been met.

robinph · 28-10-2019 10:50am

schmittel wrote: »

Surely with extension agreed, No Deal is off the table until January 30th.

Can Labour credibly refuse an election in December today? Their conditions for backing an election have been met.

Johnsons conditions for the election was that they had to vote for his deal first, so yes they can reject it.... and once they had approved his deal he'd then give them more time to read the deal.

Headshot · 28-10-2019 11:04am

schmittel wrote: »

Surely with extension agreed, No Deal is off the table until January 30th.

Can Labour credibly refuse an election in December today? Their conditions for backing an election have been met.

Labour would be signing their own death warrant

A Dub in Glasgo · 28-10-2019 11:05am

Johnsons conditions are ridiculous, give me an election and I will let you have a look at the bill

Tired Gardener · 28-10-2019 11:23am

schmittel wrote: »

Surely with extension agreed, No Deal is off the table until January 30th.

Can Labour credibly refuse an election in December today? Their conditions for backing an election have been met.

Yes, it is a trap. The whole Brexit thing is a Tory problem, if Labour were to form the UK's government they'd be taking flack and get blames for all the crap that Brexit is going to cause.

Also there is the chance that the knuckle dragging Nigel Farage followers would propel his Brexit Party into having a good number of seats in the HoC in a general election. They were all geared up to have it done by the 31/10... so they'll most likely stick it to Boris Johnson. Which would be an insane development, but this is the **** show of Brexit, so expect the unexpected.

The best that Labour can do now is to keep the Tory minority government powerless by being able to oppose it and allow it to continue to tear itself apart.

However, with all things Brexit, who can tell, it really is hard to gauge what is going to happen next with it.

amacca · 28-10-2019 11:25am

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Johnsons conditions are ridiculous, give me an election and I will let you have a look at the bill

I find it incredible what is happening, I can't remember having watched such a prolonged period of grade Z spoofing without a real public backlash, when will a large proportion of the british electorate wake up and realise what a completely terrible idea Brexit really is and this is a classic you can't eat your cake and have it too situation.

Why can't we look at it now Boris?...before the election?

When will this fantasy collide with reality?

A Dub in Glasgo · 28-10-2019 11:26am

It seems that hidden away in the legislation is an attempt by the Tories to essentially make Johnson and his cabinet all powerful without parliamentary debate or vote. Any MP concerned about democracy in the UK will reject the the WAB and not give in to Johnson. All the opposition should be stating no election until the WAB passes the committee stage at least

https://infacts.org/johnson-tries-power-grab-worthy-of-henry-viii/

https://twitter.com/InFactsOrg/status/1188509433581711360

Headshot · 28-10-2019 11:43am

briany wrote: »

In that case, they can never agree to a general election because there's no point in the near future (that I can see) where they're going to gain seats. The longer they block an election, the more unpopular they become, so it may be better to take a bad licking now than an execution later.

They need to get Brexit out of the way and only then do they have a chance of winning an election

28-10-2019 12:50pm

bazermc wrote: »

What time is the vote on election motion due at?

Urgent questions and statements from 3.30pm followed by debate on Early Parliamentary General Election. So 6 or 7ish I guess.

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201920/cmagenda/ob191028.htm#_idTextAnchor002

lawred2 · 28-10-2019 12:55pm

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Johnsons conditions are ridiculous, give me an election and I will let you have a look at the bill

It's like poker for dummies

liamtech · 28-10-2019 1:09pm

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

But having secured a peace and especially after setting a working model of power sharing, its going to very difficult for many unionists to go out and protest to the same level.

It's hard to see how someone can rise up in unionist circles to the level now to become a focus point to lead such discord. Historically Gerry Adams became the face of republicanism because of the treatment of nationalists, and Big Ian the focal point of a response to IRA violence, both extreme positions.

The fact that SF have basically stayed quiet on the issue just points out to unionists that they don't have their traditional enemy to blame and to go out and protest is just a signal to the Tories that they are troublesome and the tories should go ahead and lance the British boil by instigating a border poll.

I agree with you on some points, primarily the fact that during the troubles, tribalism was far more concentrated for Unionism. Although i would argue that Brexit is very polarizing as a cleavage in UKNI politics, it is not as harsh as the troubles era Green/Orange battle lines.

But a few points to consider if i may highlight them

Green/Orange during the Troubles was one cleavage which has become watered down since the GFA - which is a great thing of course. Unfortunately Brexits Remain-Soft/Leave-Hard is the new cleavage now, and due to the fact that it was unionists who predominantly voted to leave during the ref, these two cleavages are now re-enforcing one another - Green/Orange is now strengthened by remain/leave. Individually, neither is as damaging as the troubles era conflict, but together they are corrosive to stability in northern Ireland politics. And lets be honest stability was never the first word that came to mind when you thought of northern Ireland
Your point on Power sharing would be valid, if power sharing was actually working, which alas it is not. Arguably since Ian Paisley Snr left the political arena the Unionists have become far more corrosive in their dealings within the stormont assembly. Even before Cash4Ash it was clear to many spectators that the DUP used their POC/VETO in a simplistic bullying way, to halt anything and everything they wanted. And what they wanted was to prevent the nationalists from having their way. Even on issues where there seemed general consensus, the DUP veto-ed. Marriage Equality for example. Its clear that the majority in NI didn't mind Gay Marriage, and this point is only amplified by the fact that it is now legal, and there aren't massive protests against it. The DUP voted against and vetoed it because nationalists are for it. So while we have a 'working model of what Power sharing could be' - we also have ample evidence that power sharing will collapse as long as its the DUP who have the largest Unionist vote. Unless this changes, Power sharing will remain in a coma on life support. Direct Rule will be the future of NI Politics, in stark opposition to the GFA, and that suits the Unionists down to the ground. While yes they might have to suffer abortion and gay marriage courtesy of Westminster, its better than having to give in, and go back into coalition with Sinn Fein. They never wanted the GFA, in my opinion they wont be too fussed if it vanishes. And as always it will be Nationists/SF/Irish who will be blamed. 'Truth' will have nothing to do with this spin
I think its definitely a good thing that Sinn Fein and nationalists keep a lid on triumphalism during this turbulent time. Personally i am pleased that they haven't thrown salt on the wound. However i would prefer if the talk of a United Ireland, and border polls was shelved for now. Talking about Border polls is only going to help the DUP unite the Unionist communities in the north. And i say again, that the precedent of Sunningdale shouldnt be forgotten. 'A united Ireland is only one Sunningdale away' - that was the argument which United Unionism/Loyalism to destroy that agreement.
If Direct Rule comes back for the foreseeable future, Nationalists will not be happy, and imho that would be the moment when we are moving dangerously close to reigniting the divide in NI

Russman wrote: »

I broadly agree with you here, but it also highlights two things for me:

1) They’re still in the realm of unicorns re the Union being altered. It’s simply not possible to have as hard a Brexit as TM wanted and not change the Union to some degree or other. Whether they realised that in 2016 or not is neither here nor there. It’s like voting to cut your arm off because your finger is sore, but demanding you still have two arms, and insisting it’s up to the doctor to compromise.

2) the inherent hypocrisy of the DUP. When it’s pointed out that NI voted remain they insist it was a UK wide vote and that’s what needs to be respected. Yet when the UK parliament decides on a withdrawal agreement for the “good” of the UK as a whole they scream bloody murder about their wishes not being respected.

I don’t know how it plays out, but I suspect it’ll take the hardship biting hard to bring sense to them both up there and across the water via the farmers, traders and any normal people, because the hard core aren’t for learning and if they’re pandered to further it damages us in the republic.

I would agree with your points. Leaving the CU/CM was always going to damage the union, and i suspect the DUP were banking on this ending the other way around for them. Namely that the Brexit border would be around the 6 counties. Brexit presented them with an opportunity to do something that would otherwise have been impossible within the GFA. It gave them the opportunity to divide the island of Ireland more than it already is. It was an irresistible opportunity for them, and in the days after the Ref this became very clear

https://twitter.com/keithbelfast/status/834548717168492544

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">DUP's Nelson McCausland in his absolute element - No plans and no cares for the people of NI. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NolanLIVE?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#NolanLIVE</a> <a href="https://t.co/NgppBKIw6l">pic.twitter.com/NgppBKIw6l</a></p>— Keith Anderson (@keithbelfast) <a href="

https://twitter.com/keithbelfast/status/834548717168492544?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February

22, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Unfortunately for them the GFA proved more important to the EU, Ireland, and to large chunks of the British Parliament than they banked on. And they are suffering the consequences.

This situation is a tangle to be sure, and the only true way of avoiding Brexit created trouble in the north would be to scrap brexit, or have a Soft Leave CM/CU exit. And that can only happen in the HOC - will it?? NOPE

The situation in the HOC is insane. We now have an extension but Labor wont vote for an election. Labor have moved from 'Get extension and have a GE' to 'Got extension, get brexit sorted and then GE' - For anyone in any doubt on my nature as a leftie read my previous posts. Corbyn is ruining Labors chances now. They will sink further in the polls with this latest round of nonsense. And wasnt Corbyn supposed to be the great campaigner?

Im happy to debate these issues, but its clear to me that this latest extension probably wont be the last now. Nothing will change without a second ref and/or a GE. We wont get a 2nd ref from the current parliament, and Corbyn wont let an election happen because he will probably lose

briany · 28-10-2019 1:23pm

liamtech wrote: »

The situation in the HOC is insane. We now have an extension but Labor wont vote for an election. Labor have moved from 'Get extension and have a GE' to 'Got extension, get brexit sorted and then GE' - For anyone in any doubt on my nature as a leftie read my previous posts. Corbyn is ruining Labors chances now. They will sink further in the polls with this latest round of nonsense. And wasnt Corbyn supposed to be the great campaigner?

Labour's position is more and more resembling an M.C. Escher drawing. It's all fine to say 'get Brexit sorted', but how? What's the big proposal? Where's the 2nd referendum? I don't see one. It's crazy Groundhog day stuff. I keep hearing that Labour's position is to have a second referendum, and then I see headlines saying Corbyn 'may' back a 2nd referendum. What? I thought it was Labour's official position. What the hell is going on when one day it's your official position, and the next day it's a rumour? That's a total joke is what that is. Can anyone nail down what's going on with Labour? Can the party even nail it down themselves?

MadYaker · 28-10-2019 1:25pm

What happens to the rebel alliance now?

Water John · 28-10-2019 1:34pm

Looks like Johnson might have to go with Lib Dem/SNP option if he wants hid GE.
This will happen today.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/28/government-likely-adopt-lib-dem-election-plan-says-jo-swinson

At least the students will get their vote, not be disenfranchised as per the Tories.
The GE on the 9th as opposed to the 12th.

jaykay74 · 28-10-2019 1:46pm

Water John wrote: »

At least the students will get their vote, not be disenfranchised as per the Tories.
The GE on the 9th as opposed to the 12th.

Whats the significance of the 9th as opposed to the 12th ? Sorry if its been answered before.

L1011 · 28-10-2019 1:48pm

jaykay74 wrote: »

Whats the significance of the 9th as opposed to the 12th ? Sorry if its been answered before.

Students still at college constituencies mostly.

Water John · 28-10-2019 1:49pm

Universities break fro Christmas on the 9th, all gone home by the 12th. Actually could be quite important in Johnson's own Oxbridge constituency.
Young inclined not to vote Tory. Lb candidate in Oxbridge is young and a recent graduate also.

trellheim · 28-10-2019 1:57pm

ok the transition date hasnt change its only end of 2020 which is ridiculous

Joe_ Public · 28-10-2019 2:01pm

12th could also be critical in terms of restricting whether new parliament could actually convene before xmas recess. Very limited time in january to get things together as clock winds down. Thats a very conspiratorial view but with this administration, couldnt rule anything out. Those 3 days are obviously critical and that might be just one reason why.

gooch2k9 · 28-10-2019 2:03pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

12th could also be critical in terms of restricting whether new parliament could actually convene before xmas recess. Very limited time in january to get things together as clock winds down. Thats a very conspiratorial view but with this administration, couldnt rule anything out. Those 3 days are obviously critical and that might be just one reason why.

He's just made a written statement that he'd recommend reconvening on the 23rd December.

jm08 · 28-10-2019 2:04pm

I came across this in an article about the collapse of a dairy processor in the UK.

It emerged that Lidl’s Irish business has told British suppliers they will have to cover any EU import tariffs imposed on goods crossing borders after Brexit.

The issue with the processors in the UK is that to cope with Brexit they need to borrow money to expand which they can't afford to do.

Sainsbury has told suppliers they may have to foot the bill for any import tariffs arising from a no-deal Brexit.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/10/28/farmers-should-wary-mercy-retailers/

manbitesdog · 28-10-2019 2:06pm

Water John wrote: »

Universities break fro Christmas on the 9th, all gone home by the 12th. Actually could be quite important in Johnson's own Oxbridge constituency.
Young inclined not to vote Tory. Lb candidate in Oxbridge is young and a recent graduate also.

Oxbridge is a portmanteau of Oxford and Cambridge. Uxbridge is Johnson’s constituency.

Joe_ Public · 28-10-2019 2:06pm

gooch2k9 wrote: »

He's just made a written statement that he'd recommend reconvening on the 23rd December.

Ok thanks, hadnt seen that.

liamtech · 28-10-2019 2:09pm

Headshot wrote: »

Labour would be signing their own death warrant

Corbyn hasnt got a leg to stand on anymore.

briany wrote: »

Labour's position is more and more resembling an M.C. Escher drawing. It's all fine to say 'get Brexit sorted', but how? What's the big proposal? Where's the 2nd referendum? I don't see one. It's crazy Groundhog day stuff. I keep hearing that Labour's position is to have a second referendum, and then I see headlines saying Corbyn 'may' back a 2nd referendum. What? I thought it was Labour's official position. What the hell is going on when one day it's your official position, and the next day it's a rumour? That's a total joke is what that is. Can anyone nail down what's going on with Labour? Can the party even nail it down themselves?

Thats exactly it.

Labor COULD be the party properly opposed to Brexit. They could be attacking the very essence of what Brexit Is.

How devisive and damaging it is to GB and NI
How even a soft Brexit will harm britains economy, and the fact that GB would then become the rule taker as opposed to a rule maker
How a Hard Bojo Brexit is even more damaging, and highlighting the ridiculous nature of banking on foreign trade deals, which as of yet cannot be agreed
How corrosive Brexit is to the Union - Northern ireland is only one part of this - Scotland will leave (regardless of whether you agree with scottish independence or a United Ireland this argument is credibly against Brexit)
How the No Deal brexit that some prefer, would be the mother of all disasters for the UK, effecting the economy, jobs, trade, and britains standing within the G7 and the world as a whole
The icing on the cake to these arguments would be to highlight the benefits of EU membership, and the lies that led people to vote the way they did in 2016

Instead we have Jeremy Corbyn. He fancies his chances of negotiating a brexit, and wants his chance. He would then allow the majority of the Labor Party to vote against this deal.

He wants a general election when no deal is off the table and an extension has been given.. oh.. wait.. i mean.. He wants a general election once brexit is sorted??????? ??????? Lets be clear Jeremy wants an election the moment Labor start to increase support in the polls, and the Tories start to slip - period

He wont co-operate fully with other Anti-Brexit parties, which will only serve to divide the remain vote.

And in all honesty his opinion on a second referendum is questionable given his own comments.

Its a sad fact but the moment TM started to highlight her Hard brexit leaving the CU/CM - Labor needed to elect a remainer as leader of the party. Corbyn, who is clearly Euro-skeptic, should have stepped aside. He didnt - and here we are now.

Corbyn is banking on BoJo's support slipping the longer he is held powerless in Number 10 - ok its a tactic - is it country First or party first??? And refusing a GE, because Labor is low in the polls.. is that country or party first???

Professor Moriarty · 28-10-2019 2:16pm

liamtech wrote: »

Corbyn hasnt got a leg to stand on anymore.

Thats exactly it.

Labor COULD be the party properly opposed to Brexit. They could be attacking the very essence of what Brexit Is.
How devisive and damaging it is to GB and NI

How even a soft Brexit will harm britains economy, and the fact that GB would then become the rule taker as opposed to a rule maker

How a Hard Bojo Brexit is even more damaging, and highlighting the ridiculous nature of banking on foreign trade deals, which as of yet cannot be agreed

How corrosive Brexit is to the Union - Northern ireland is only one part of this - Scotland will leave (regardless of whether you agree with scottish independence or a United Ireland this argument is credibly against Brexit)

How the No Deal brexit that some prefer, would be the mother of all disasters for the UK, effecting the economy, jobs, trade, and britains standing within the G7 and the world as a whole

The icing on the cake to these arguments would be to highlight the benefits of EU membership, and the lies that led people to vote the way they did in 2016

Instead we have Jeremy Corbyn. He fancies his chances of negotiating a brexit, and wants his chance. He would then allow the majority of the Labor Party to vote against this deal.

He wants a general election when no deal is off the table and an extension has been given.. oh.. wait.. i mean.. He wants a general election once brexit is sorted??????? ??????? Lets be clear Jeremy wants an election the moment Labor start to increase support in the polls, and the Tories start to slip - period

He wont co-operate fully with other Anti-Brexit parties, which will only serve to divide the remain vote.

And in all honesty his opinion on a second referendum is questionable given his own comments.

Its a sad fact but the moment TM started to highlight her Hard brexit leaving the CU/CM - Labor needed to elect a remainer as leader of the party. Corbyn, who is clearly Euro-skeptic, should have stepped aside. He didnt - and here we are now.

Corbyn is banking on BoJo's support slipping the longer he is held powerless in Number 10 - ok its a tactic - is it country First or party first??? And refusing a GE, because Labor is low in the polls.. is that country or party first???

When you're in a fight, what matters is not how good you are but how good your opponent is. Johnson looks across the floor of the house and thanks his lucky stars.

Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

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