2019 Nfl Draft

eagle eye · 28-02-2019 3:50pm

Foxtrol wrote:

Kyler Murray weighed in at 5-foot-10, 207 pounds, with a handsize of 9 1/2 inches.
Size is still an issue but he is not quite the frail dwarf some expected.

5'10" in the NFL is equivalent to 5'5" for a man on the street.

Foxtrol · 28-02-2019 3:57pm

eagle eye wrote: »

5'10" in the NFL is equivalent to 5'5" for a man on the street.

He is only half an inch shorter than Russel Wilson was at the combine and actually 3 pounds heavier

Blut2 · 28-02-2019 4:16pm

Thats small for an NFL QB, but just about manageable I'd say. Russel Wilson I'm sure would love an extra 6" of height but he makes do at a similar size. Its a far cry from some of the 5ft 8 180lb rumours that were flying about.

Gotta give him props though - 200lbs+ at that height is incredibly heavy, comparatively. He must be extremely dedicated in the weights room.

Guffy · 28-02-2019 4:20pm

The one thing that would worry me is he has apparently put around 10-20 pounds on since the season finished and hasnt actually played at that weight. You'd wonder if he can sustain it.

Foxtrol · 28-02-2019 4:36pm

Guffy wrote: »

The one thing that would worry me is he has apparently put around 10-20 pounds on since the season finished and hasnt actually played at that weight. You'd wonder if he can sustain it.

Can see this being true and is probably why he is unlikely to throw. Probably feels different being that weight. Interesting if the extra weight will impact his run.

However, it does show he can carry that weight. He is also 2 years younger than Wilson was when he went to the combine and is now solely focusing on one sport so has plenty of time to fill out if he gets to sit for a year.

D9Male · 01-03-2019 12:35am

Let's see if he can run at that weight. If he doesn't break 4.50, it suggests he has been at the hot dog bar rather than the weights room.

Paully D · 01-03-2019 10:51am

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/1101308596262973440?s=21

An excellent read.

In a similar vein, a post I made 4 years ago on here seems relevant:

Reading a book at the moment in which an analytics guy claims he has found what he argues is the most important statistic in judging the potential success of a college quarterback in the NFL - 3rd down completion rate. Obviously it's not the only thing but he feels it's extremely significant.

Matt Richer is his name. He started off working with the Seahawks and is doing bits and pieces for other teams now. Jimmy Clausen is the first example the book cites, with Richer pegging him as undraftable due to his 3rd down completion rate. On 1st down he was 74%, 69% on 2nd, yet only 52% on 3rd. In 2011 when Mayock and co had Gabbert ranked as the #1 QB over Newton, Richer again cited his 3rd down rate which was just 44%! Gabbert only faced 5 ranked opponents and threw 4 TD's/6 INT's against same. He claimed Bortles reminded him a lot of Gabbert which is ironic given that both play(ed) with the Jaguars. Bortles was 71% on first, 75% on second but only 54% on 3rd. In Bortles previous two seasons they only played 4 ranked opponents and in those games, he threw half of his 18 INT's.

He says "most of the top QB's drafted in the last number of years don't see a significant drop in their completion percentage on third down". For example, Russell Wilson went 71%, 71% and 75% on 1st, 2nd and 3rd down respective at Wisconsin. Bridgewater had a 68% completion rate on 3rd down. In 2014, he had Bridgewater as the only QB worthy of a 1st round grade, while he gave Manziel a 4th round grade and Bortles a 5th.

The Bridgewater example doesn't look as good now after the injuries, but it's worth remembering that after his first couple of seasons he looked a lock as a franchise QB.

D9Male · 01-03-2019 1:02pm

That is a really interesting stat. Bridgewater was never a lock to be a franchise QB, but it is fascinating.

eagle eye · 01-03-2019 1:12pm

Paully D wrote:

The Bridgewater example doesn't look as good now after the injuries, but it's worth remembering that after his first couple of seasons he looked a lock as a franchise QB.

Bridgewater never looked last me a franchise QB. He looked average at best.

Personally the most important thing to look for before you even start is to see how a QB reacts under pressure. The best go down quickly if it's not safe to throw the ball away. Look at Brady, Brees and Rodgers and they all do that. The ones who always try to escape and make a play when under pressure never work out.
You rarely if ever see a guy learn that after college so if they are doing it in college don't draft them.

Knex* · 01-03-2019 3:37pm

Have to agree on Bridgewater. Never got the hype.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero · 01-03-2019 9:09pm

Can't see Kyler Murray falling outside the top 10 after yesterday. Plenty of people saying he was only 5'8'', which imo, would've cast some doubts.

Also, don't really see the Witten having a huge impact this season. Interesting how he said it was only his decision. Who's else would it have been?

Guffy · 01-03-2019 9:40pm

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

Can't see Kyler Murray falling outside the top 10 after yesterday. Plenty of people saying he was only 5'8'', which imo, would've cast some doubts.

Also, don't really see the Witten having a huge impact this season. Interesting how he said it was only his decision. Who's else would it have been?

Well no he probably won't but he should. Screams an rg3 injury killing career

Foxtrol · 01-03-2019 9:52pm

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

Also, don't really see the Witten having a huge impact this season. Interesting how he said it was only his decision. Who's else would it have been?

Guessing Witten was trying to make it clear that ESPN didn't dump him for being terrible and that caused him to go back to football.

https://twitter.com/SInow/status/1101219880458768391

Billy86 · 01-03-2019 10:33pm

Guffy wrote: »

Well no he probably won't but he should. Screams an rg3 injury killing career

I don't know, RGIII just didn't have it all in all. I can never decide whether Shanahan's running him into the ground ruined his career, or whether Shanahan's system is the only reason he ever looked good as a rookie. The truth is probably somewhere in between, I guess.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero · 02-03-2019 12:33am

Guffy wrote: »

Well no he probably won't but he should. Screams an rg3 injury killing career

I've only watched a handful of college games this year, none of which included him, so I'm not going to pretend to know enough about Murray to give an opinion. I just don't think height is anywhere near as significant an issue as some people make it out to be. Wilson is only 5'11'' and he's comfortably a top 10 QB. Even had he measured 5'8" I don't believe it would've been defining, not for QBs nowadays.

Foxtrol wrote: »

Guessing Witten was trying to make it clear that ESPN didn't dump him for being terrible and that caused him to go back to football.

https://twitter.com/SInow/status/1101219880458768391

Yea it's certainly the main line of thought. I wonder tough was he that afraid of the humiliation of getting sacked that he decided to give it another year. Stunningly stupid if true, but I'm not complaining!

Edit: just realised this is the draft thread, apologies mods.

Guffy · 02-03-2019 10:56am

Its not his height that would be my issue. I'm not comparing his game to RG3 either was jist pointing out a slight qb drafted in the top 5 getting hurt.

Russel Wilson had to cut weight to get down to 220 +/- for the combine and played higher than that. Imo a guy who ran for 1000 yards last year is not big enough (as a top 5 pick) to play the position at 190. He's added 15 odd pounds for the combine granted but is that sustainable long term? He's still 10 pounds short of Wilson who everyone is comparing him too.

Billy86 · 02-03-2019 1:33pm

Murray's 209 lbs is bigger than Wilson during the combine - http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/russell-wilson?id=2532975

It's also on my a few lbs off Drew Brees back in 2001, and is the exact same weight drew is now - http://www.draftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=196&draftyear=2001&genpos=qb

Brees is a definite HOFer and Wilson is on pace to maybe make it too. Both would have been automatic top 5 picks if he they were 2-3 inches taller, but due to fickleness and fickleness alone (esp in the case of Wilson) slipped all the way down out of the first altogether. And in Wilson's case, from the 2nd too.

Guffy · 02-03-2019 2:44pm

Billy86 wrote: »

Murray's 209 lbs is bigger than Wilson during the combine - http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/russell-wilson?id=2532975

It's also on my a few lbs off Drew Brees back in 2001, and is the exact same weight drew is now - http://www.draftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=196&draftyear=2001&genpos=qb

Brees is a definite HOFer and Wilson is on pace to maybe make it too. Both would have been automatic top 5 picks if he they were 2-3 inches taller, but due to fickleness and fickleness alone (esp in the case of Wilson) slipped all the way down out of the first altogether. And in Wilson's case, from the 2nd too.

But the point is that Wilson cut a lot of weight before the combine in order to run faster in the 40. His playing weight was a lot bigger more than that.

Murray put a lot of weight on to look bigger for the combine. His playing weight is normally not that big. Murray likes to run and linebackers are big.

Im not saying he doesnt have the potential to have a great career. Im saying is that he is light and has just an equal chance of having a similar career to Teddy B as he does Wilson.

I am not saying anything about his height. Although i will point out that 6 foot was the line of no return for baker last year. 5'10 appears to be the new line which just goes to show that height is irrelevant to a degree, if your good enough

Foxtrol · 02-03-2019 3:37pm

Guffy wrote: »

But the point is that Wilson cut a lot of weight before the combine in order to run faster in the 40. His playing weight was a lot bigger more than that.

Murray put a lot of weight on to look bigger for the combine. His playing weight is normally not that big.

Murray is only 21 though, which is 2 years younger than Wilson was at his combine. Weighing in shows his body can put on that weight though and he has years to do so. He probably isn’t ideal for a team that is in a win now window that will likely close in the next year or so but there aren’t many of those.

Murray likes to run and linebackers are big.

You’re making him sound like a run first QB. He is clearly a passer first that is also elusive and a great runner when the opportunity presents itself.

Im not saying he doesnt have the potential to have a great career. Im saying is that he is light and has just an equal chance of having a similar career to Teddy B as he does Wilson.

I am not saying anything about his height. Although i will point out that 6 foot was the line of no return for baker last year. 5'10 appears to be the new line which just goes to show that height is irrelevant to a degree, if your good enough

Every QB drafted has a chance of being a success or a bust, there are no sure things.

Guffy · 02-03-2019 5:42pm

Foxtrol wrote: »

Murray is only 21 though, which is 2 years younger than Wilson was at his combine. Weighing in shows his body can put on that weight though and he has years to do so. He probably isn’t ideal for a team that is in a win now window that will likely close in the next year or so but there aren’t many of those.

You’re making him sound like a run first QB. He is clearly a passer first that is also elusive and a great runner when the opportunity presents itself.

Every QB drafted has a chance of being a success or a bust, there are no sure things.

I never said he was run first but he does run. He ran for a 1,000 yards this year.

Im not saying he wont be good, he may grow to carry weight in 2 years time. Im saying its a risk trading up for a guy as light as him and starting him this year. Why on earth would someone trade up to the top 5 for a guy they will start in 2 years when he's not exactly elite elite either.

I know there's no sure thing but there are factors you take into account in order to mitigate risk

eagle eye · 02-03-2019 6:09pm

Haskins will be first off the board anyways and Lock second. I'd place Murray in a category which includes Grier, Browning, Stidham and Findley in that you are not sure what you are getting.
Browning is an interesting one, he has a great arm and has had some awesome games but he makes mistakes too. Murray you can see getting destroyed as he attempts to run sometime.
Big difference between him and Wilson is smarts. Wilson is a great reader of the game both pre-snap and as the play unfolds.

Foxtrol · 02-03-2019 7:35pm

Guffy wrote: »

I never said he was run first but he does run. He ran for a 1,000 yards this year.

Im not saying he wont be good, he may grow to carry weight in 2 years time. Im saying its a risk trading up for a guy as light as him and starting him this year. Why on earth would someone trade up to the top 5 for a guy they will start in 2 years when he's not exactly elite elite either.

I know there's no sure thing but there are factors you take into account in order to mitigate risk

This is the first time you've mentioned that your concern trading up for him to start now and I'm in full agreement that this probably wouldn't be wise. Teams rarely trade up when they're in the win now window anyway and few drafted QBs are able to start on day one

Your earlier comparison and concern was tying Murray to RG3, when they have very different playing styles.

Paully D · 02-03-2019 9:16pm

That’s Metcalf going in the top 10 anyway!

Billy86 · 02-03-2019 10:10pm

Guffy wrote: »

But the point is that Wilson cut a lot of weight before the combine in order to run faster in the 40. His playing weight was a lot bigger more than that.

Murray put a lot of weight on to look bigger for the combine. His playing weight is normally not that big. Murray likes to run and linebackers are big.

Im not saying he doesnt have the potential to have a great career. Im saying is that he is light and has just an equal chance of having a similar career to Teddy B as he does Wilson.

I am not saying anything about his height. Although i will point out that 6 foot was the line of no return for baker last year. 5'10 appears to be the new line which just goes to show that height is irrelevant to a degree, if your good enough

Actually, this has Wilson at 201lbs in college - https://gopack.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=1177 - while I've seen varying amounts for Murray but typically around 195lbs. Wilson has/had a bit more bulk sure, but there is very little between the two, and Wilson likes to run also - he has something the most fifth most scrambling yards of all time I think it is despite only turning thirty about three months back, and at the way he is going is likely to be second only to Cam Newton and Michael Vick.

I get what you mean though, and if whichever coach has him goes full on Mike Shanahan/RGIII on him though and decide he needs tp run-run-run-run-run, and when injured just run-run-run-run-run it off... yeah I imagine his career would be over before his rookie contract (maybe a better example since Teddy is 6'2, 215lbs and not much of a runner). I don't think I'll ever get over how needlessly reckless Shanahan was that year, at the back end especially.

Foxtrol · 03-03-2019 2:29am

Paully D wrote: »

That’s Metcalf going in the top 10 anyway!

I'm equally excited and scared by him. His size, raw power, and speed are amazing but his lack of experience and agility, alongside his and repeated injuries, make him a huge chance of being a bust.

Always Be Closing · 03-03-2019 6:41am

As long as Chiefs get Baker I'm happy out

phatkev · 03-03-2019 11:42am

Foxtrol wrote: »

I'm equally excited and scared by him. His size, raw power, and speed are amazing but his lack of experience and agility, alongside his and repeated injuries, make him a huge chance of being a bust.

Yeah from the small sample I've seen from him it seems running in a straight line is his entire route tree

Always Be Closing · 03-03-2019 2:51pm

Or Nasir Adderley!

Big Pussy Bonpensiero · 03-03-2019 4:23pm

Metcalf ran a slower 3 cone drill than Tom Brady. Arguably the most important drill for receivers and he bombed. Not even worth a first with his injury record imo.

Foxtrol · 03-03-2019 8:21pm

I know it was going to be a stacked DL class but some of the stuff today has been crazy.

Polite looks like he will likely free fall though after this weekend. Testing and personality red flags.

2019 Nfl Draft

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