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02-10-2020, 22:44   #16
Meteorite58
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Not as wet in the SW as earlier runs. Very wet in the W ,NW and midlands by the looks of it, looks potentially quite wet near the E also but will have to see tomorrows runs. Time for changes yet, been a hard event to pin down with all the swirling rain mass. Rain continuing into Monday to a lesser extent and remaining breezy in the SW for a time Monday.

Looking quite cold on Sunday especially in the wind and rain.











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03-10-2020, 11:03   #17
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That's some rainfall predicted over in the UK. Yellow and Amber warnings in place there. Rainfall into Monday bringing up the totals here in Ireland for the Northern half of the country.










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03-10-2020, 13:37   #18
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GFS also looks very wet for the UK, particularly Scotland and wales. Ireland appears to be dodging a bullet with the deluges in comparison. If this was the middle of January parts of the UK would be looking at insane snowfall, particularly over high ground.

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08-10-2020, 09:56   #19
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Less rain than of late, bit more settled and less wind, generally staying on the cooler side.





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15-10-2020, 19:55   #20
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Models trending wet or very wet later Sunday, Monday into Tuesday. UKMO was looking very wet but backed off a bit on the latest run. Blustery, possibly windy on the coasts.

GFS now looking a lot wetter.










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17-10-2020, 13:33   #21
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European models showing very wet Monday into Tuesday, American keeping the heaviest rain off the coast for now.

Looking very wet in places next week.

Charts just for guidance of possible accumulations but depending on tracks this could change a bit nearer to the time.











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18-10-2020, 14:53   #22
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Models showing it a bit windier now in the latest runs, wasn't showing much up to now, looks like some counties getting yellow wind warnings from early Tues morning.







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18-10-2020, 18:40   #23
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UKMO current predictions for Rainfall accumulations , very high in Mountain areas.



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18-10-2020, 18:56   #24
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Still a difference in track for the LP on Tuesday between the models. French bring the center running up just off the Coast. HIRLAM up through the center, GFS coming in from the SW and exiting the NW, ECM showing two centers, first running up the W coast second entering the SW and Moving up inland along Atlantic counties, so a difference yet to where the strong winds will be forecast for the coasts.

Met Eireann's wind forecast would tally with the ECM for now. Will see what the next run brings out, might swing more towards the French models perhaps bringing the W into it ?

UKMO bringing the strongest winds from the S all the way around to the E, strongest on the coasts. A yellow warning at most for some counties perhaps, a low level yellow at present I reckon.





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18-10-2020, 20:36   #25
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Latest ECM keeping the center more up along the Atlantic seaboard.

No great change in the winds, a tad lighter on the coasts if anything, this run from the ECM does not look like a yellow wind warning for now. Bit of chopping and changing yet to go perhaps, still quite blustery overland especially the Southern half of the country.




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19-10-2020, 08:36   #26
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Latest runs would suggest yellow wind warnings along S, SE and maybe E coastal counties from early tomorrow morning. Blustery overland.
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19-10-2020, 08:55   #27
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Spot on Meteorite

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Wexford, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Becoming very windy on Tuesday. Southeast winds, veering southwest will reach mean speeds of 50-65km/h, gusting up to 100km/h. Exceptionally high tides combined with strong onshore winds gives an elevated risk of coastal flooding.

Valid: 05:00 Tuesday 20/10/2020 to 15:00 Tuesday 20/10/2020

Issued: 08:00 Monday 19/10/2020
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19-10-2020, 20:26   #28
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Models have raised the wind speeds a bit again for tomorrow, firmly in Yellow warning territory now. Could get a good lick of 100km/h + along the S , SE coasts for a time and these are onshore winds so strong winds penetrating inland a bit.

Kerry look's to be getting strong winds just for a short time as the Low center passes over keeping the strongest winds to the right of it.

ICON quite similar to the ECM






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19-10-2020, 20:33   #29
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An idea of the next 24 hrs of rain, looks like a bit of a lull from the early hours until rain comes ashore in the SW about 06.00









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19-10-2020, 23:20   #30
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Bit of a way to go yet to see how windy and wet it will be over the weekend especially Saturday. Latest ICON showing the storm tracking between Ireland and Iceland much closer on it's latest run, but the others ( ECMWF, GFS and UKMO tracking it well off the NW with it's front crossing on Saturday, bit of a difference on timing, duration and strength but it looks quite windy on Atlantic coasts for a time and blustery and with some heavy rain overland .









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