Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi all! We have been experiencing an issue on site where threads have been missing the latest postings. The platform host Vanilla are working on this issue. A workaround that has been used by some is to navigate back from 1 to 10+ pages to re-sync the thread and this will then show the latest posts. Thanks, Mike.
Hi there,
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

12467…496

Comments

  • #152
    Zenify
    Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    Cyrus wrote: »
    Why were houses in Dublin more expensive prior to funds ?

    I'm not arguing that land in Dublin shouldn't cost more than the middle of nowhere. I completely understand that is should cost more because of housing demand. I'm only arguing that it costs so much because of artificial demand caused by stupid tax incentives, state purchases, REITs etc etc....


  • #153
    Beigepaint
    Registered Users Posts: 171 ✭✭Beigepaint


    yagan wrote: »
    Greed. It's policy sculpted by landlord TDs.

    If it happens - it’s policy.
    If it doesn’t happen - it’s policy.

    Let’s not allow politicians play dumb anymore.
    Paddy has bumbled too long.


  • #154
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,110 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Yes. Of course it should IMO. We're an extremely low population density island off an island off europe. I don't see how any standard 3-bed anywhere in Ireland costs any more than c. €150k IMO

    Ther's far more land in Australia per person than in Ireland, but the median house price there in Sydney is up $100,000 in just three months to $1.3 M - or €832,000.

    Auckland's average is €670,000

    Vacouver's average is €874,000

    London's average is €678,273

    Edinburgh's average is £274,972

    But you think a house in Dublin - a capital city - should cost €275,000?

    You are not being realistic.


  • #155
    Beigepaint
    Registered Users Posts: 171 ✭✭Beigepaint


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Ther's far more land in Australia per person than in Ireland, but the median house price there is up $100,000 in just three months to $1.3 M - or €832,000.

    Auckland's average is €670,000

    Vacouver's average is €874,000

    London's average is €678,273

    Edinburgh's average is £274,972

    But you think a house in Dublin - a capital city - should cost €275,000?

    You are not being realistic.

    All bubbles driven by foreign investors. The market is unrealistic.


  • #156
    John1648
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 112 ✭✭John1648


    Dear Board.ie contributors, here comes a kind request to you to critique such a small investment idea:

    I am a cash buyer, looking at buying a property in Dublin for letting purposes. I am looking at the lower end of the budget properties, which seem to me to produce a better yield.

    The calculation is like this: 1300 EUR monthly rent, purchase price - 180 000 EUR.

    I am currently looking at an apartment in Citywest area (Carrigmore Crescent), 2 mins from LUAS, next to the shopping centre, 1-bedroom, 42 sqm, in pretty good shape, furnished.

    Would such rents be realistic, for these apartments? Would it be easy to find tenants in the current market?

    Would it too be risky, in the sense that these apartments risk to sit empty in the event of a recession?
    I currently reside abroad, so would not pay the PRSI.

    My calculations would go like this:

    Apartment Rented for 1300 a month.

    Rental Income per year 15600.

    Expenses:

    Mgmt Charges 1050
    Letting and property management fees: 1550
    Tax advisory costs: 250

    Total allowed deductible expenses 2850.
    Local property tax: 250
    Income: 12750

    Income Tax at 20pc (minus the allowance of 1650) is 900; PRSI 0 pc; , USC 0.5 pc is 80

    Overall Profit: 15600-1050-250-1550-250-900-80 is 11770.

    Does it make sense?

    Many thanks!

    John


  • Advertisement
  • #157
    Balluba
    Registered Users Posts: 129 ✭✭Balluba


    Zenify wrote: »
    I've never been to a protest before. I've never been motivated enough, but I'm ready to take to the streets as soon as we are allowed!

    Hopefully we can get a movement going because we all know whatever measures they come up with next week will be insufficient.

    I too will get out and March when a protest is organised and not just to highlight the first time buyers problem. There are many different kinds of people who can not afford a house at the moment. Young singletons cannot afford to buy on one salary. Older singletons cannot afford to buy because of reduced capacity to borrow due to age. There are older people who sold country homes who wish to live near their children in Dublin but can not raise the extra money needed.
    Also there are couples who have separated possibly still in negative equity who struggle to buy again.


  • #158
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,110 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Beigepaint wrote: »
    All bubbles driven by foreign investors. The market is unrealistic.

    And Dublin isn't, vis a vis REITs? 78% of property funding in Dublin was foreign, between 2017 and 2019. Dublin was the third most attractive city in Europe for foreign investors in 2018. Globalisation has been great for the 0.01 percenters. NZ is mostly closed to foreign property investors.


  • #159
    Zenify
    Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    Balluba wrote: »
    I too will get out and March when a protest is organised and not just to highlight the first time buyers problem. There are many different kinds of people who can not afford a house at the moment. Young singletons cannot afford to buy on one salary. Older singletons cannot afford to buy because of reduced capacity to borrow due to age. There are older people who sold country homes who wish to live near their children in Dublin but can not raise the extra money needed.
    Also there are couples who have separated possibly still in negative equity who struggle to buy again.

    Some of my single friends have decided to leave the country after lockdown and I will be out on their behalf too. Property owners should also protest on behalf of their future/present children. We need to unify all together.

    I think we have finally reached a stage where even the majority of property owners want lower prices.


  • #160
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,966 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Balluba wrote: »
    I too will get out and March when a protest is organised and not just to highlight the first time buyers problem. There are many different kinds of people who can not afford a house at the moment. Young singletons cannot afford to buy on one salary. Older singletons cannot afford to buy because of reduced capacity to borrow due to age. There are older people who sold country homes who wish to live near their children in Dublin but can not raise the extra money needed.
    Also there are couples who have separated possibly still in negative equity who struggle to buy again.

    Young singletons could never buy houses. Why did older singletons not buy houses from 2012-2016 when there was rakes of cheap property around. For many they wanted the 250k 3 bedroom in D4. For older people never sell until you buy in a rising market. I know a older couple that bought a house near where there adult daughters levels in 2013 it cost 110k. It was rented from 2013-2029. In late 2019 started doing up the house. New windows and doors, kitchen, put in solar panels, new stove , re wired and plumbed the house etc. The father roped in two of his son-in-laws to relandscape the outside, install a new patio and sort out 2-3 other things. Cost them over 100k.
    They are selling there own house at present and expect it to make over 300k. That's the way you do it

    Slava Ukrainii



  • #161
    Villa05
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,723 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Cyrus wrote:
    Is unaffordability at new levels ?
    With reports during the week that Less and Less people under 35 are able to purchase despite increased skills and educational attainment.

    They are then funnelled into the rental market, with rent levels at record highs

    I'm not sure why you question it

    Cyrus wrote:
    What country is there where land sells for the same price regardless of location?

    This is not the point I was making.

    Why would you be entering taxpayer funded long term leases for housing at record high prices when you can deliver that housing yourself for a fraction of the price through your ownership of the most expensive input

    Resolution is within the power of the state yet they have chosen to use taxpayers money to disadvantage the very citizens that are paying it and make the issue worse.


  • Advertisement
  • #162
    Balluba
    Registered Users Posts: 129 ✭✭Balluba


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    Young singletons could never buy houses. Why did older singletons not buy houses from 2012-2016 when there was rakes of cheap property around. For many they wanted the 250k 3 bedroom in D4. For older people never sell until you buy in a rising market. I know a older couple that bought a house near where there adult daughters levels in 2013 it cost 110k. It was rented from 2013-2029. In late 2019 started doing up the house. New windows and doors, kitchen, put in solar panels, new stove , re wired and plumbed the house etc. The father roped in two of his son-in-laws to relandscape the outside, install a new patio and sort out 2-3 other things. Cost them over 100k.
    They are selling there own house at present and expect it to make over 300k. That's the way you do it

    I disagree because I bought a house years ago when I was single and so did most of my friends.
    2012 -2014 is gone and so is the option to buy a home at a reasonable price.
    We are where we are. Houses in Dublin are now unaffordable to many kinds of people. That is why I will March


  • #163
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Ther's far more land in Australia per person than in Ireland, but the median house price there in Sydney is up $100,000 in just three months to $1.3 M - or €832,000.

    Auckland's average is €670,000

    Vacouver's average is €874,000

    London's average is €678,273

    Edinburgh's average is £274,972

    But you think a house in Dublin - a capital city - should cost €275,000?

    You are not being realistic.

    Well it depends on what a person believes drove prices in Dublin upwards from 2012 onwards and whether someone believes those same forces could work in a similar manner in reverse.

    1. Google etc. coming to Dublin.
    2. Ever lower interest rates.
    3. AirBnB
    4. Funds entering and buying up much of that post-crash over-supply.

    Point 1 could reverse depending on the outcome of the upcoming global tax reforms.
    Point 2 could reverse depending on how the central banks react to inflation.
    Point 3 should already be reversing.
    Point 4 could reverse based on points 1 and 2 above.

    Now, throw in the possible impact of remote working etc. on top of that (we should have more insight on that by September IMO) on the demand for housing in the city and given that there’s also no shortage of land to build on in Dublin and I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility for house prices in Dublin to fall to the current selling prices of c. €200k for new build a-rated 3 bed semis in Co. Wexford or even well below that.

    Average 3 bed prices in three of the four council areas in Dublin in 2011 were under €300k and I think c. €350k in South Dublin.


  • #164
    Gradius
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭Gradius


    Productivity and creativity are the bread and butter of every economy. They are the golden eggs.

    The commodification of housing has been the equivalent of slaying the golden goose.

    It has significantly eroded birth rates, family creation, creativity, mobility, productivity, and even facility. Some of these factors will only become more obvious over time, but it's baked in at this point.

    Who will be buying your 500k+ investments/homes in 20 years? It won't be the majority of people, those who have been bled dry through rent and mortgages. Nor will their children be propping up your pension investments, because a lot of those theoretical children won't exist.

    Disaster looms, no matter how you cut it. Anyone thinking this kind of economic Titanic will keep sailing must surely realise their predictions are based on lots of "despite" rather than "because".

    The country is a bloody joke.


  • #165
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    janandbren wrote: »
    Thoughts on story broke this morning by Killian Woods on the business post? The state itself investing in the cuckoo funds? Though I'm completely shocked by it myself, I feel this board where I have to admit is my first time posting, has replaced all my reading of social media so I appreciate all of the wide range of opinions from you all! Came straight on here to see the chat but maybe I'm too early?

    In a follow up to that SBP article today, the Irish Times is reporting:

    “Meanwhile, the Department of Finance has defended investments made by the Irish Strategic Investment Fund (ISIF) in a company which purchased significant numbers of homes in Co Kildare.

    The ISIF put €60 million into a firm called Urbeo in 2018, which, according to a report in the Business Post went on to purchase more than 200 units in two housing estates in Maynooth.”

    Quite amazing, the state basically gives them the money or at least helps the fund to outbid local FTBs and then would more likely than not (based on their passed behaviour) would probably be renting those same houses back at probably market breaking rents IMO

    Link to Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/large-percentage-of-new-builds-may-be-reserved-for-first-time-buyers-under-new-plan-1.4566560


  • #166
    Gradius
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭Gradius


    Murph85 wrote: »
    Good post above, this is one serious mess/ disgrace. The government are going.g to wish for the good old days of covid again. This will drag on for years and even with the best will and a lot of time, it would be a challenge to change. Gene Kerrigan has a good article in the irish indepent today. Refers to ffg as profits before people alliance, bang on ! He also says what I posted a few pages back, the housing crisis isn't causing them sleepless nights, it's the political ramifications that are...

    Ffg pandering to the high voting elderly , lol. It's the hu dress of thousands of young, that will never vote for you again, that they should have been more concerned about..

    Quite true about the sleepless nights. Politicians by their very nature have always been populist. However, now they have essentially become crack-addled social media "influencers", ie bending over backwards to appease a ludicrously insignificant cohort of people that are barely connected to reality, while completely throwing all else to the wind.

    Also, to add to my previous point on the expensive, negative consequences of commodifying housing there is the very real impact of mental health.

    Increased stress and worry must surely be dominated by housing in this country. It can't be measured, but it's there. Again, factors that subtract from productivity and creativity.

    Trading bricks between one another ad infinitum, all in the hope of using those bricks to leech off the decreasing pool of people that are genuinely productive.

    Egypt isn't the only country with great pyramids.


  • #167
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    several off-topic posts deleted.

    Please read the mod note in post 1 before posting again.


  • #168
    Gradius
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭Gradius


    <SNIP>


  • #169
    Mad_maxx
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,503 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Yes. Of course it should IMO. We're an extremely low population density island off an island off europe. I don't see how any standard 3-bed anywhere in Ireland costs any more than c. €150k IMO

    New Zealand is far less densely populated than Ireland and far more isolated geographically yet house prices on average are a good 40% more expensive than in Ireland despite wages being higher in Ireland

    view the world as it is rather than as you would wish it to be


  • #170
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Mad_maxx wrote: »
    New Zealand is far less densely populated than Ireland and far more isolated geographically yet house prices on average are a good 40% more expensive than in Ireland despite wages being higher in Ireland

    view the world as it is rather than as you would wish it to be

    That’s what I’m doing. Seeing the world as it really is. I know nothing about New Zealand but I also don’t believe for a moment that that over-supply in Ireland from the boom years has been soaked up IMO


  • #171
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    John1648 wrote: »
    Dear Board.ie contributors, here comes a kind request to you to critique such a small investment idea:

    I am a cash buyer, looking at buying a property in Dublin for letting purposes. I am looking at the lower end of the budget properties, which seem to me to produce a better yield.

    The calculation is like this: 1300 EUR monthly rent, purchase price - 180 000 EUR.

    I am currently looking at an apartment in Citywest area (Carrigmore Crescent), 2 mins from LUAS, next to the shopping centre, 1-bedroom, 42 sqm, in pretty good shape, furnished.

    Would such rents be realistic, for these apartments? Would it be easy to find tenants in the current market?

    Would it too be risky, in the sense that these apartments risk to sit empty in the event of a recession?
    I currently reside abroad, so would not pay the PRSI.

    My calculations would go like this:

    Apartment Rented for 1300 a month.

    Rental Income per year 15600.

    Expenses:

    Mgmt Charges 1050
    Letting and property management fees: 1550
    Tax advisory costs: 250

    Total allowed deductible expenses 2850.
    Local property tax: 250
    Income: 12750

    Income Tax at 20pc (minus the allowance of 1650) is 900; PRSI 0 pc; , USC 0.5 pc is 80

    Overall Profit: 15600-1050-250-1550-250-900-80 is 11770.

    Does it make sense?

    Many thanks!

    John

    I think Dublin residential property market is a good place to invest savings, if you don't have your own business. Although it's not for everyone, and problem with tenants might be a major issue.
    But I think you calculation is not right for final profits. If Rental is not main source of income, I guess you would NOT get allowance of 1,650.
    Your "Overall Profit" still likely to be taxed in country of residence as an Income, Profit or Dividend rate.


  • Advertisement
  • #172
    Timing belt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,567 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Browney7 wrote: »
    This isn't new news. Information has been there if people were bothered to look

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=115421513

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=117138002

    Great stuff from the business post calling out this economic illiteracy

    I wouldn’t be surprised if the SBP article came about after a journalist say your posts on here... fair pay for highlighting it 5 days ago


  • #173
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,966 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    PropQueries wrote: »
    That’s what I’m doing. Seeing the world as it really is. I know nothing about New Zealand but I also don’t believe for a moment that that over-supply in Ireland from the boom years has been soaked up IMO

    And where is it so has someone hidden it under there jumper

    Slava Ukrainii



  • #174
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    And where is it so has someone hidden it under there jumper

    It’s all “hidden” in plain site in most official data.

    Thankfully the SBP published an article about all those empty apartments in Dublin back in Feb 2020 (pre-covid) or many would be blaming all those empty apartments in Dublin on Covid IMO

    It’s also like people blaming the current high cost of building on “materials” or the “new building regulations” and then Oral Hegarty today tweets about new build a-rated 3 bed houses in Co. Wexford asking c. €200k


  • #175
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    PropQueries wrote: »
    It’s all “hidden” in plain site in most official data.

    Thankfully the SBP published an article about all those empty apartments in Dublin back in Feb 2020 (pre-covid) or many would be blaming all those empty apartments in Dublin on Covid IMO

    It’s also like people blaming the current high cost of building on “materials” or the “new building regulations” and then Oral Hegarty today tweets about new build a-rated 3 bed houses in Co. Wexford asking c. €200k

    And when those apartments were fully completed? Were they empty for over a year?


  • #176
    Mad_maxx
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,503 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    PropQueries wrote: »
    That’s what I’m doing. Seeing the world as it really is. I know nothing about New Zealand but I also don’t believe for a moment that that over-supply in Ireland from the boom years has been soaked up IMO

    Population increase of half a million since 2011 and nearly all to the main cities


  • #177
    Sarn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,091 ✭✭✭Sarn


    Mad_maxx wrote: »
    Population increase of half a million since 2011 and nearly all to the main cities

    I was just about to post similar. Population in Ireland has increased by about 700k since 2006.


  • #178
    Villa05
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,723 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Mad_maxx wrote:
    New Zealand is far less densely populated than Ireland and far more isolated geographically yet house prices on average are a good 40% more expensive than in Ireland despite wages being higher in Ireland

    Mad_maxx wrote:
    view the world as it is rather than as you would wish it to be


    Unfortunately we are not allowed debate your claim
    Balanced posts containing links to people's experience in several countries have been deleded


  • #179
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Mad_maxx wrote: »
    Population increase of half a million since 2011 and nearly all to the main cities

    Well, all I know is that of the c. 180k population increase between 2011 and 2016, c.100k was due to an increase in people living longer i.e. the over 65s and not in need of housing.

    We also had significant negative net inward migration over that period and still had a ‘housing shortage’ despite the significant oversupply from the boom years. We still haven’t breached 5 million today as far as I know.

    I’ll go with my gut instinct and the official data and guesstimate there is no housing shortage and given that the funds purchased c. €200 billion in distressed banking assets between 2012 and 2016, that they will begin offloading in bulk this year and we’ll begin to see how much of that vacant property they really do own.

    I think anyone inside and outside Dublin can see, as I have, how much vacant property there really is at the moment IMO

    My thinking would also be that that significant backlog in probate sales (and it’s significant IMO) will begin to re-enter the market in the next few months and resolve all housing problems IMO.


  • #180
    Timing belt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,567 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Well, all I know is that of the c. 180k population increase between 2011 and 2016, c.100k was due to an increase in people living longer i.e. the over 65s and not in need of housing.

    We also had significant negative net inward migration over that period and still had a ‘housing shortage’ despite the significant oversupply from the boom years. We still haven’t breached 5 million today as far as I know.

    I’ll go with my gut instinct and the official data and guesstimate there is no housing shortage and given that the funds purchased c. €200 billion in distressed banking assets between 2012 and 2016, that they will begin offloading in bulk this year and we’ll begin to see how much of that vacant property they really do own.

    I think anyone inside and outside Dublin can see, as I have, how much vacant property there really is at the moment IMO

    My thinking would also be that that significant backlog in probate sales (and it’s significant IMO) will begin to re-enter the market in the next few months and resolve all housing problems IMO.

    On one hand you have over 65 living longer and the other you have them dying and entering probate...logic sounds like a square circle unless I am missing something


  • Advertisement
  • #181
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,538 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    PropQueries wrote: »

    My thinking would also be that that significant backlog in probate sales (and it’s significant IMO) will begin to re-enter the market in the next few months and resolve all housing problems IMO.

    What significant backlog in probate sales?


  • #182
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Timing belt wrote: »
    On one hand you have over 65 living longer and the other you have them dying and entering probate...logic sounds like a square circle unless I am missing something

    Yes. Life expectancy for those over the age of 65 plateaued about 2 years ago. That with the states backlog in processing such probates has resulted in a significant backlog of such properties re-entering the market which should be cleared very soon IMO


  • #183
    Cyrus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,193 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    L1011 wrote: »
    What significant backlog in probate sales?

    There isn't one

    IMO


  • #184
    derekgine3
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 52 ✭✭derekgine3


    Zenify wrote: »
    I've never been to a protest before. I've never been motivated enough, but I'm ready to take to the streets as soon as we are allowed!

    Hopefully we can get a movement going because we all know whatever measures they come up with next week will be insufficient.




    Right there with you, let's end this madness once and for all.


    We have our place paid off years but would gladly see it's value drop 50% if it meant some of our children and grandchildren could purchase with a decent job, work ethic and delayed gratification mindset.


    It makes no difference to us as we don't plan to sell, people fixated on price increases on their property are short sighted, they don't realize that if they are not down sizing..the house they want will also cost more.


    Let's make our voices heard and get out there people.


  • #185
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    PropQueries wrote: »
    That with the states backlog in processing such probates has resulted in a significant backlog of such properties re-entering the market which should be cleared very soon IMO

    Wasn't the waiting time about 2 months at the start of this year? An increase due to covid?

    What's your source?


  • #186
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    L1011 wrote: »
    What significant backlog in probate sales?

    According to Barry Cowen in 2018:

    “Some 30,000 people pass away every year in Ireland with up to 86% of them owning a home. This potentially leaves some 26,000 homes affected by these delays in probate.”

    One would assume it’s bigger now with Covid delays (similar to re. Passports).

    Link here: https://www.thejournal.ie/probate-2-3870061-Feb2018/


  • Advertisement
  • #187
    Cyrus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,193 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    PropQueries wrote: »
    According to Barry Cowen in 2018:

    “Some 30,000 people pass away every year in Ireland with up to 86% of them owning a home. This potentially leaves some 26,000 homes affected by these delays in probate.”

    One would assume it’s bigger now with Covid delays (similar to re. Passports).

    Link here: https://www.thejournal.ie/probate-2-3870061-Feb2018/

    Why do you keep quoting Barry Cowen ?

    And why are probate sales and passports conflated?


  • #188
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,538 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    PropQueries wrote: »
    According to Barry Cowen in 2018:

    “Some 30,000 people pass away every year in Ireland with up to 86% of them owning a home. This potentially leaves some 26,000 homes affected by these delays in probate.”

    One would assume it’s bigger now with Covid delays (similar to re. Passports).

    Link here: https://www.thejournal.ie/probate-2-3870061-Feb2018/

    As pointed out to you previously, this does not actually back up your claims.

    Stop misrepresenting it.


  • #189
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    PropQueries wrote: »
    According to Barry Cowen in 2018:

    “Some 30,000 people pass away every year in Ireland with up to 86% of them owning a home. This potentially leaves some 26,000 homes affected by these delays in probate.”

    One would assume it’s bigger now with Covid delays (similar to re. Passports).

    Link here: https://www.thejournal.ie/probate-2-3870061-Feb2018/

    Your assumption would be incorrect by the looks of it
    Updates & Changes to Probate Procedures - January 2021

    Waiting times for Probate applications

    The waiting times for applications is presently running between eight to ten weeks.

    Source: The Courts Service


  • #190
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Graham wrote: »
    Your assumption would be incorrect by the looks of it



    Source: The Courts Service

    As I said:

    “Life expectancy for those over the age of 65 plateaued about 2 years ago. That with the states backlog in processing such probates has resulted in a significant backlog of such properties re-entering the market which should be cleared very soon IMO“

    Very soon.


  • #191
    Mad_maxx
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,503 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Well, all I know is that of the c. 180k population increase between 2011 and 2016, c.100k was due to an increase in people living longer i.e. the over 65s and not in need of housing.

    We also had significant negative net inward migration over that period and still had a ‘housing shortage’ despite the significant oversupply from the boom years. We still haven’t breached 5 million today as far as I know.

    I’ll go with my gut instinct and the official data and guesstimate there is no housing shortage and given that the funds purchased c. €200 billion in distressed banking assets between 2012 and 2016, that they will begin offloading in bulk this year and we’ll begin to see how much of that vacant property they really do own.

    I think anyone inside and outside Dublin can see, as I have, how much vacant property there really is at the moment IMO

    My thinking would also be that that significant backlog in probate sales (and it’s significant IMO) will begin to re-enter the market in the next few months and resolve all housing problems IMO.

    a lot more than a white rabbit in that hat


  • Advertisement
  • #192
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    PropQueries wrote: »
    As I said:

    “Life expectancy for those over the age of 65 plateaued about 2 years ago. That with the states backlog in processing such probates has resulted in a significant backlog of such properties re-entering the market which should be cleared very soon IMO“

    Very soon.

    Backlog according to the Court Service is "eight to ten weeks".

    Have you a source that suggests otherwise (recent)?


  • #193
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,527 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Sarn wrote: »
    I was just about to post similar. Population in Ireland has increased by about 700k since 2006.

    With the population hitting 6m by 2040. 25% increase. The demand issue ain't going away for a long time.


  • #194
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Sierra Oscar wrote: »
    With the population hitting 6m by 2040. 25% increase. The demand issue ain't going away for a long time.

    Big increase. All based upon net inward migration being c. 30,000 per year despite the fact it was negative just c. 6 years ago,


  • #195
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Graham wrote: »
    Backlog according to the Court Service is "eight to ten weeks".

    Have you a source that suggests otherwise (recent)?

    Well done on them clearing the backlog and it should free up thousands of potential homes for FTBs in prime locations in our cities and towns over the coming months should they keep that timeframe down from the 2018 figures:

    In 2018:

    “In Dublin the average for a solicitor application is 17 weeks, in Galway and Cork it is 16 weeks, in Sligo and Limerick it is 12 weeks and in Waterford it is 10 weeks.”

    As I said:

    “Life expectancy for those over the age of 65 plateaued about 2 years ago. That with the states backlog in processing such probates has resulted in a significant backlog of such properties re-entering the market which should be cleared very soon IMO“

    Very soon.


  • #196
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,538 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    I don't think you actually understand what you're reading or saying there.

    There is no backlog to be released, and even if there was it would only just push the same properties on to the market a few weeks earlier.

    There are no quick little fixes to happen "very soon", every one you think there is based on a misunderstanding of the basic principles.


  • #197
    mcsean2163
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Graham wrote: »
    Backlog according to the Court Service is "eight to ten weeks".

    Have you a source that suggests otherwise (recent)?

    My experience with the courts this year has been glacial. Your source was January 2021, it is may now and we're only just emerging from level 5 lockdown.

    <MOD SNIP>


  • #198
    ongarite
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,279 ✭✭✭ongarite


    Net emigration is very unlikely in the near term in this COVID world which will put further pressure on the housing shortage.

    All the English speaking places that Irish went to have closed borders until late 2022/23 (Australia, NZ and Canada) or aren't as attractive as they once were (UK).
    There is the rest of the EU bloc but generally Irish people have been reluctant to relocate Germany, France, Belgium or Netherlands.


  • #199
    Pussyhands
    Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    I'm looking to buy an apartment.

    Can anyone give me tips on what I should be looking for/asking for in a viewing?

    I've seen listed management fees range from 500-1500.


  • #200
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    mcsean2163 wrote: »
    My experience with the courts this year has been glacial. Your source was January 2021, it is may now and we're only just emerging from level 5 lockdown.

    Personal applications that require a personal application interview and signing of oath obviously not proceeding during lockdown.

    Solicitor applications being processed.

    That suggests there could be a delay of up-to about 6 months for personal applications (my rough estimate). Certainly not enough to significantly move the needle in the context of a property market that has been partially suspended for the period anyway.

    There's certainly no indication a few-years of supply suddenly going to drop.


  • #201
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Graham wrote: »
    Personal applications that require a personal application interview and signing of oath obviously not proceeding during lockdown.

    Solicitor applications being processed.

    That suggests there could be a delay of up-to about 6 months for personal applications (my rough estimate). Certainly not enough to significantly move the needle in the context of a property market that has been partially suspended for the period anyway.

    There's certainly no indication a few-years of supply suddenly going to drop.

    Well, if life expectancy in the over 65s increased by c. 4 years between 2000 and 2018 and plateaued in 2018 and combined with the pre-covid backlog and the obvious probate delays during covid, there may be a significant number (in the tens of thousands in prime locations IMO) of probate related properties about to re-enter the market in one form or other (sale or rent) over the next several months IMO


  • Advertisement
Advertisement