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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • #52
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    squarecircles wrote: »
    Becoming progressively colder during the week, Met Eireann saying it will be ''bitterly cold'' by Friday.

    NATIONAL OUTLOOK
    OUTLOOK: A lot of dry and calm weather but turning very cold, with frost, fog and possible icy stretches.

    TUESDAY NIGHT: Becoming dry early in the night, though some scattered showers will move into Atlantic counties overnight. Turning cold with frost and possibly a few icy stretches. Some mist and fog developing in parts too. Lowest temperatures 0 to 5 degrees Celsius, in light southwest to west breezes.

    WEDNESDAY: Frost and any possible icy stretches will clear early on, to give a mostly dry day with long spells of autumn sunshine - just a few stray showers across the north and west. A cool and crisp day with highest temperatures of 7 to 9 degrees Celsius in just light westerly breezes. Very cold and frosty after dark with a widespread frost, along with mist and fog. Lowest temperatures of -3 to +2 degrees Celsius in near calm.

    THURSDAY: A mostly dry and calm day, but a cold day with variable cloud cover. Frost and fog may be slow to clear some areas, whilst other areas will be sunny. Highest temperatures of just 4 to 8 degrees Celsius. A few stray light showers about after dark, but overall dry and calm. Another cold and frosty night, with some dense fog in parts. Lowest temperatures of 0 to -3 degrees Celsius.

    FRIDAY: Frost and fog may persist in some areas. Once again though, most areas will see a dry calm day with a mix of cloud and sunny spells. Bitterly cold though in places with highest temperatures of just 3 to 8 degrees Celsius, best values for southern fringes.

    Current indications suggest temperatures will remain colder than normal this weekend with some further frosts. Some well scattered showers about too, in light east to southeast winds.

    I bet Jean Byrne was on duty this morning and wrote that. She's fond of that word.


  • #53
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    this mornings GFS operational run is definitely on the milder side compared to the rest of the runs, however there is nothing really cold on the horizon. Temperatures will slide a bit from this weekend to fairly standard late November to early December style temperatures and we lose the very mild temperature anomolies that have dominated the past month.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2020-11-23&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    Not looking overly wet either, certainly nowhere as bad as the deluges from last November/early December. There are a few genuine cold outliers here too but the majority of the runs are average in terms of rainfall and temperatures.


  • #54
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Charts trending again towards cooler weather over the next 7 to 10 days and there is a fair chance this could get upgraded. At the same time we should see a fair deal of dry weather and night time frosts.

    High pressure will extend it's influence over us after tomorrow and temperatures will be cooler than what we've been used to. Daytime temperatures in the single digits, gone are the double digits and teens of the past month and a half.

    The high pressure then moves away from us into the Atlantic with a fairly strong mid Atlantic ridge forming later next week. This could send the jet stream diving southwards over Morocco and leaving Ireland in a potentially cold northerly plunge.

    ECM has high pressure in control over the weekend into early next week.

    ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

    We finish on December 4th with winds howling down from the north and winter will begin to bite.

    ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

    If this was to verify we could see daytime temperatures up to 4 or 5 degrees below normal.

    ECMOPEU00_240_34.png

    ECM wants to block off the Atlantic completely with a very strong mid Atlantic ridge extending towards Greenland and another very strong ridge towards the east of Europe and into Russia, this would leave us in a very strong northerly most likely.

    render-worker-commands-5685cbbb5f-pdcpf-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-04E4Hz.png

    Interesting model watching ahead for a potentially cold and fairly dry first half to December.


  • #55
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,957 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    It looks like a cold and dry period is fairly certain, hopefully between the two main models we get something a bit more wintry during the first week of December. The GFS does also show a decent but brief northerly in December too.


  • #56
    Storm 10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,970 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Back to rain again for the weekend according to ME

    Saturday: A cool start to the day will give way to milder conditions
    extending from the south with outbreaks of rain developing in the south and west
    while remaining mostly dry in the east and north. Highest temperatures of 6 to
    10 degrees coolest in the north in a light to moderate southeasterly breeze.


    Saturday night: Rain, heavy at times, extending across the country on
    Saturday night coolest early in the east and towards dawn in the west as the
    rain and cloud clears with lowest temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees, light
    southerly breezes veering west and increasing light to moderate as the rain
    passes.

    Sunday: A wet start most with drier brighter conditions in the
    west extending east throughout the day. Highest temperatures of 7 to 10 degrees
    coolest in the north in light to moderate westerly breezes.


  • #57
    Storm 10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,970 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    All change again
    Summary: Quite cold and settled for the end of the week with night frost, before milder and wetter weather spreads from the south over the weekend.

    Thursday night: Another mainly dry but cold and frosty night. It will be cloudier in the west and northwest with the chance of some light rain. Dense fog will develop in places in near calm conditions. Lowest temperatures generally of -1 to +5 degrees, coldest in the southeast.

    Friday: A cold day on Friday with frost and fog lingering in the morning. However, it will remain largely dry apart from showers in the northwest, with occasional sunny spells developing through the day, the best of which will be in the southeast. Highest temperatures just 5 to 9 degrees in light southerly breezes.

    Friday night: Becoming mostly dry on Friday night, with clear spells and just the odd isolated shower. Continuing cold with lowest temperatures dropping to between -2 and +3 degrees, coldest in the east where there will be a widespread frost.

    Saturday: Most places will see a cold, dry and bright day on Saturday with afternoon temperatures of 6 to 8 degrees. It will be milder and cloudier towards the south coast, though, with scattered showers and highest temperatures of 9 to 11 degrees. Easterly winds will be light to moderate.

    Saturday night: Well scattered showers will linger in southern areas on Saturday night but otherwise it will be dry with a mix of cloud and clear spells. Mist and fog will form towards morning. Lowest temperatures will range between -1 and +6 degrees, coldest in Ulster.
    [/QUOTE]


  • #58
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    After a couple of average temperature days at the start of the week getting cold with what looks like wintry showers as winds veer to the NW. Could be plenty of hail showers , a convective look to it, wondering will we get a few rumbles around the coasts also.

    anim_cwh0.gif

    anim_rbq6.gif

    anim_tmg7.gif


  • #59
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Met Office

    “ Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

    Cloudy and mostly dry on Tuesday. Turning much colder on Wednesday and Thursday with wintry showers.”


  • #60
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Please don’t pay any heed to the discussion on the Netweather Model outlook forum. It is quite confusing and misleading, you have one person saying that it will not produce snow and the next person showing charts of low level snow showers.

    The truth is it does appear for the northern third of our island at a minimum the parameters are just about right for showers to fall as snow to low levels, particularly at night. It does not get cold enough in England.

    The cold air actually enters NW Ulster on Wednesday morning and gradually filters down. It appears the coldest air is not until Thursday, with some -6c 850hPa air. This is marginal.

    The freezing level appears to be 800 metres on Wednesday in Ulster, and <500 metres from Wednesday evening there, which is productive for low level snow in heavy showers.

    By Thursday evening the freezing level is under 400 metres for most of the island, so this is productive for snow in most cases.

    So in reality (at this stage) there is a window of snow from late Wednesday to Friday early hours. It is not a sharp cold spell but it is a start.

    It appears to be quite a showery setup too which should enable evaporative cooling and lower temps during the day.


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  • #61
    CirrusBusiness
    Registered Users Posts: 205 ✭✭CirrusBusiness


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Please don’t pay any heed to the discussion on the Netweather Model outlook forum. It is quite confusing and misleading, you have one person saying that it will not produce snow and the next person showing charts of low level snow showers.

    The truth is it does appear for the northern third of our island at a minimum the parameters are just about right for showers to fall as snow to low levels, particularly at night. It does not get cold enough in England.

    The cold air actually enters NW Ulster on Wednesday morning and gradually filters down. It appears the coldest air is not until Thursday, with some -6c 850hPa air. This is marginal.

    The freezing level appears to be 800 metres on Wednesday in Ulster, and <500 metres from Wednesday evening there, which is productive for low level snow in heavy showers.

    By Thursday evening the freezing level is under 400 metres for most of the island, so this is productive for snow in most cases.

    So in reality (at this stage) there is a window of snow from late Wednesday to Friday early hours. It is not a sharp cold spell but it is a start.

    It appears to be quite a showery setup too which should enable evaporative cooling and lower temps during the day.

    Will wait for a Kermit thread before getting excited. Looks like marginal stuff so far. West coast might get some slushy white gold at times.


  • #62
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    CirrusBusiness wrote: »
    Will wait for a Kermit thread before getting excited. Looks like marginal stuff so far. West coast might get some slushy white gold at times.

    It is marginal but I think that the northern third could have a high chance of seeing snowfall, especially in such a showery setup.

    I wanted to let people know that the Netweather posts aren’t reflective of the forecast situation on our island.


  • #63
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yes what we see falling from the sky wont be all rain this week and that's a change.


  • #64
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,957 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    .


  • #65
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM's 0Z showing snow potential Thurs with what looks like a wave feature forming from NW to SE over Southern half of Ireland and deepening, followed by another disturbance later from N to S. Difficult to know if this will happen like this but something like it could happen. Mid levels very cold showing getting down to -5C, -6C and cold uppers. DP's coming right down during the day to below freezing by early night.

    Certainly looks wintry, probably something like rain to sleet to snow to sleet and rain, wet snow on the ground on hilly areas, snow on mountains. Early yet to know but has the signs of getting the first taste of winter proper.

    Very cold night to follow into Fri morning so there could be some lying snow possible and icy roads.

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    C1LtWnB.gif

    1gZywiF.gif

    BMPEX5d.png

    WxF18tt.png

    vnUuwHe.png


  • #66
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Not sure what happened to the icon? The cold comes in on Wednesday and then disappears? Hopefully just a blip.

    I will watch the 18z with baited breath.


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  • #67
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Not sure what happened to the icon? The cold comes in on Wednesday and then disappears? Hopefully just a blip.

    I will watch the 18z with baited breath.


    The ECM is showing it colder than ICON at this stage, still holding on to -5, -6C 850hPa temps. ECM not as snowy on this run, more in the way of rain and sleet but I'm sure twists and turns will happen over the coming days.

    GFS coming in on the act showing snow potential for the SE , the timing for this run is snow later Thurs night into Fri morning.

    There are going to be bands of precipitation, troughs and convective showers all in the mix, timing is impossible atm. Wont know with any degree of certainty up until a day or so beforehand and then it will be a nowcast in such a marginal set up but interesting nonetheless.


  • #68
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,981 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Certainly one to watch over the next 48 hrs
    Detail as ever yet to be firmed up on
    Overall a great start to Winter!!


  • #69
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    The ICON 18Z has went back to the previous pattern. The cold arrives in on Wednesday morning (for Ulster) and leaves on Friday.

    It appears Ulster and some places south of that have a very high chance of seeing snow showers between Wednesday and Friday, but no lying snow.


  • #70
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    ICON forecasted snow.


  • #71
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Winter if finally here short range charts for the winter can be discuessed at https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058137519


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