Hurricane Michael

MJohnston · 10-10-2018 10:20pm

J6P wrote: »

Another good video of the stadium effect inside the eye wall..

https://www.facebook.com/Stefan1126/videos/10156491591296138/

The one time someone has perfect conditions to record that and then they record it portrait and upload it in 360p :cries:

10-10-2018 10:26pm

MJohnston wrote: »

The one time someone has perfect conditions to record that and then they record it portrait and upload it in 360p :cries:

Yep, was thinking that too! Its incredibly rare to get good quality genuine stadium effect video on the ground at ground zero inside a storm. Normally the reserve of the hurricane hunter aircraft.

Rhineshark · 11-10-2018 12:22am

Fitzo123 wrote: »

It's going to cross back into the Atlantic remaining as a hurricane at this rate; incredible stuff. Very lucky to this point that it's missed populated areas on the coast.

Unfortunately, it didn't. The destruction in and around Panama City looks devastating.

MJohnston · 11-10-2018 1:05am

Remarkable video of it just demolishing buildings here:

https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/1050094351790034944

MJohnston · 11-10-2018 1:08am

https://twitter.com/Wx_Tyler/status/1050120756862930944

BumperD · 11-10-2018 1:45am

Some horrendous damage being shown on weather channel right now from Panama City, looks like a few embedded tornadoes ripped through there

Cantona's Collars · 11-10-2018 2:25am

The gauges at one of the air force bases recorded winds of 130mph before they broke.

John.Icy · 11-10-2018 11:42am

How come Hurricanes are never portrayed as such on the bog standard GFS runs? Looking at the N.America view and Michael is measly when compared to big atlantic storms.

Is it a resolution/pressure thing or something else?

11-10-2018 9:22pm

John.Icy wrote: »

How come Hurricanes are never portrayed as such on the bog standard GFS runs? Looking at the N.America view and Michael is measly when compared to big atlantic storms.

Is it a resolution/pressure thing or something else?

Size basically. The most destructive wind-field of a hurricane along with the associated pressure changes represented by tightly packed isobars might be only 20 or 30 miles across (the eye wall) while a similar wind-field of a mid-latitude depression may extend for a couple of hundred miles or more. This is why on a continental sized model chart you see them as tiny features. Here is tomorrow's ECM. Callum to the NW of Ireland with Leslie down at the bottom. Leslie looks insignificant on that chart, but the NHC is predicting winds of 85 mph for it.

Gaoth Laidir · 11-10-2018 11:57pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Size basically. The most destructive wind-field of a hurricane along with the associated pressure changes represented by tightly packed isobars might be only 20 or 30 miles across (the eye wall) while a similar wind-field of a mid-latitude depression may extend for a couple of hundred miles or more. This is why on a continental sized model chart you see them as tiny features. Here is tomorrow's ECM. Callum to the NW of Ireland with Leslie down at the bottom. Leslie looks insignificant on that chart, but the NHC is predicting winds of 85 mph for it.

It's got a lot to do with the projection of the map. The further polewars from the equator you go the larger more distorted area becomes. Draw a horizontal line 1110 km (10 degrees) long on both the 10 ° and 70 ° lines of latitude and you'll find that the 70 ° line appears much longer on the map. If a hurricane is 10 degrees wide it will therefore appear much smaller than one of our storms 10 degrees wide.

12-10-2018 1:41am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It's got a lot to do with the projection of the map. The further polewars from the equator you go the larger more distorted area becomes. Draw a horizontal line 1110 km (10 degrees) long on both the 10 ° and 70 ° lines of latitude and you'll find that the 70 ° line appears much longer on the map. If a hurricane is 10 degrees wide it will therefore appear much smaller than one of our storms 10 degrees wide.

Allowing for the distortions of a Mercator projection, many tropical cyclones would still appear somewhat smaller than our mid latitude systems. Systems like Tracey and Marco (2008) would be pretty small if represented on a Mercator based chart at our latitudes. Then again Tip would be pretty big......

M.T. Cranium · 12-10-2018 6:06pm

The GFS currently has Leslie making a landfall in southern Portugal on Saturday night into Sunday morning (at tropical storm intensity, possibly extra-tropical, at that point), about 50 miles south of Lisbon. The model has been wavering between that kind of track and a loop back to the west for yet another tour of the North Atlantic but it seems that the rapid progress of Michael is locking in the ridge between the two systems and pushing Leslie on to the east. The same model run (12z) takes Michael rather harmlessly south of Ireland on Sunday night and into the Biscay region where it is supposed to disintegrate with remnants reaching the north coast of Spain. Meanwhile what is left of Leslie would cross southern Spain and die out in the western Med.

A frontal system expected in Ireland by late Monday is from a separate weather system that moved into the Atlantic from northeast Canada and Greenland.

star gazer · 12-10-2018 8:35pm

Mexico Beach, Florida was badly impacted with some terrible consequences for the area as well as Panama City. Evacuations were obviously extremely important and though there was a shorter lead in time with an intensity increase coming towards landfall, there was time for people to take advice. The death toll is 12 so far with searches continuing in the harder to reach parts.
rte
independent.ie

https://twitter.com/CNNweather/status/1050398864874893312
https://twitter.com/NOAA/status/1050740411646570496
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1050725921538347008

RobertKK · 12-10-2018 10:19pm

Hurricanes can be upgraded in category based on the destruction they do. If the destruction is at Cat 5 level then Michael could get upgraded as having been a cat 5 at landfall.
Hurricane Andrew was upgraded to a category 5 hurricane 10 years after it had hit Florida.

J6P · 12-10-2018 10:56pm

Rhineshark · 13-10-2018 11:10am

The destruction in Mexico Beach is horrendous. I don't know how they are going to rebuild. Even the few buildings left standing are badly damaged and had their foundations flooded by the sea. The people living there have basically lost everything.

I don't see some of these coastal communities recovering (- same for Puerto Rico tbh, especially if they get another one within the next couple of years.) The Panhandle right by the sea and the Florida keys just aren't safe to live on in hurricane season. Maybe this was a 1-100 years event, but those seem to be more common lately.

REBELSAFC · 13-10-2018 11:49am

Someone mentioned to me that wind gusts were over 400kmph but cant see that verified anywhere and I find it hard to believe? The highest ever gust recorded was 406kmph in Australia in 1996

rossie1977 · 13-10-2018 1:02pm

Rhineshark wrote: »

The destruction in Mexico Beach is horrendous. I don't know how they are going to rebuild. Even the few buildings left standing are badly damaged and had their foundations flooded by the sea. The people living there have basically lost everything.

I don't see some of these coastal communities recovering (- same for Puerto Rico tbh, especially if they get another one within the next couple of years.) The Panhandle right by the sea and the Florida keys just aren't safe to live on in hurricane season. Maybe this was a 1-100 years event, but those seem to be more common lately.

PR will take decades to recover but places like Panama and Mexico beach cleanup and rebuild will start immediately. Florida and California coasts might not be safe to live in for different reasons but they are still some of the most prime real-estate in the world.

Biloxi and the surrounding area took full hit from Katrina and was devastated in 2005. I was there in 2014 just over 8 years later and while there was still evidence something had happened you would really have to go looking.

Mount Vesuvius · 14-10-2018 10:50am

Satellite view of the damage. Not much was left unfortunately.

https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/michael/index.html#18/29.93373/-85.39831

REBELSAFC · 14-10-2018 1:29pm

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

Satellite view of the damage. Not much was left unfortunately.

https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/michael/index.html#18/29.93373/-85.39831

For comparison:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Mexico+Beach,+FL+32456,+USA/@29.9416192,-85.4042413,1625m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x889497c51c040927:0x12dfe414858b6e1c!8m2!3d29.9479833!4d-85.4179766

14-10-2018 8:33pm

Post tropical remnants of Michael. Due to finally dissipate of the NW coast of Spain in the next couple of days.

Kamili · 17-10-2018 11:23am

Came across this today and thought I would share

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/10/why-scientists-had-trouble-predicting-hurricane-michael-s-rapid-intensification?utm_campaign=news_daily_2018-10-16&et_rid=399746071&et_cid=2433027

not a whole lot in it but for a non techy weather watcher (read that as clueless) it sheds some light on things

Itssoeasy · 20-04-2019 11:18am

I know I’m posting in a thread that hasn’t had a post in it for nearly seven months. It’s just to say that hurricane Michael was upgraded to a Cat 5 hurricane when it made landfall, not a Cat 4.

Hurricane Michael

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