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Buy now or wait a couple years

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  • 20-04-2019 11:20pm
    #1
    rob316
    Registered Users Posts: 17,973 ✭✭✭✭


    So I'm looking for a bit of advice.

    Do I buy now or wait couple years?

    I'm currently in a council house paying about 400 to 500 a month (it's variable I just settle up with the council at the end of the year according to my earnings). Wife and 1 kid in cork city.

    I could buy in the next few months a property for 250ish but I'm not exactly satisfied with the options.
    I want a 3 bed in the city suburbs.

    As I'm not paying market rate rent I'm not under mad pressure to get out of where I am but I'm just terrified will I be priced out if I wait 2 years or so or will I have better options.

    My head is wrecked we can't decide on what to do.


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    #2
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    What better options do you anticipate will be available in 2 years?


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    #3
    utmbuilder
    Registered Users Posts: 467 ✭✭utmbuilder


    rob316 wrote: »
    So I'm looking for a bit of advice.

    Do I buy now or wait couple years?

    I'm currently in a council house paying about 400 to 500 a month (it's variable I just settle up with the council at the end of the year according to my earnings). Wife and 1 kid in cork city.

    I could buy in the next few months a property for 250ish but I'm not exactly satisfied with the options.
    I want a 3 bed in the city suburbs.

    As I'm not paying market rate rent I'm not under mad pressure to get out of where I am but I'm just terrified will I be priced out if I wait 2 years or so or will I have better options.

    My head is wrecked we can't decide on what to do.

    You may find eager buyers end of November if last years pattern repeats itself


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    #4
    utmbuilder
    Registered Users Posts: 467 ✭✭utmbuilder


    rob316 wrote: »
    So I'm looking for a bit of advice.

    Do I buy now or wait couple years?

    I'm currently in a council house paying about 400 to 500 a month (it's variable I just settle up with the council at the end of the year according to my earnings). Wife and 1 kid in cork city.

    I could buy in the next few months a property for 250ish but I'm not exactly satisfied with the options.
    I want a 3 bed in the city suburbs.

    As I'm not paying market rate rent I'm not under mad pressure to get out of where I am but I'm just terrified will I be priced out if I wait 2 years or so or will I have better options.

    My head is wrecked we can't decide on what to do.

    You may find eager buyers end of November if last years pattern repeats itself

    New builds are still exceptional value although slowly going up


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    #5
    Nikki Sixx
    Closed Accounts Posts: 426 ✭✭Nikki Sixx


    I’d stay put, you’d be mad to leave your current set up. You are on the pig’s back. You can sit out the current boom comfortably. The only people who should buy are the people renting at €800 per room.


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    #6
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 14,344 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Why not buy that house off the council? (If you're happy there).


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    #7
    Dolbhad
    Registered Users Posts: 782 ✭✭✭Dolbhad


    I’m based in Cork. We had similar budget to you last year but to be honest if you want to be in the city with that budget you aren’t getting a 3 bed semi. We just continued to save last year to increase it. We started looking at start last year and by middle of 2018 we had been priced out of areas.

    Even in the north side they are going for above €250k. And all new builds in city start above €300k and are going up 20k every phase it seems. And queues over night for the new builds at heather field and Clonara.

    So if you see something you like in your budget buy it. But you’ll have to go further out for it like Mallow or Cobh.


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    #8
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,843 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Future market conditions cannot be accurately predicted, be extremely wary of such predictions, and those that claim this ability. It's pot luck really, a step into the unknown, there is no real perfect time to buy, it's a decision when made, whereby you hope for the best. Best of luck with it


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    #9
    cannotlogin
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,172 ✭✭✭cannotlogin


    This sickens me.

    Wish I could pay SFA to rent a council house at a subsidised rate while having capacity to save to buy.


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    #10
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,843 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    cannotlogin wrote:
    Wish I could pay SFA to rent a council house at a subsidised rate while having capacity to save to buy.


    Our housing situation is a mess, currently unresolvable in my opinion, but I think it's best not to shame/blame those that seem to be doing better than others in such regard.


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    #11
    Heres Johnny
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,738 ✭✭✭Heres Johnny


    cannotlogin wrote: »
    This sickens me.

    Wish I could pay SFA to rent a council house at a subsidised rate while having capacity to save to buy.

    Get over it. Not helpful. The man wants to buy a house. Mortgage holder myself I saved, but this man wants to better himself and buy so leave him at it.


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    #12
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 8,856 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    What's predicted for Cork city in terms of supply of houses meeting demand, over the next 5 years? If the predictions look good that year on year, more and more houses will come onto the market and it will ease price inflation then maybe you might want to wait that length of time and keep saving in the meantime- but prices will be on the up in the meantime, all other things being equal.



    Waiting 3-4 years will likely mean you'll be paying more than you're paying now even if prices plateau due to increased supply. If prices go up by say just 5% per annum, on a 250k house, you'll need to save around 12-14K a year just to keep up with prices in a few years time.

    But remember, if you move out too far from the city, you're into commuting costs, reduced access to services etc etc I don't think in say 3 years time you'll be in any better position


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    #13
    Roisin76
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 29 ✭Roisin76


    It wouldn't be smart economically to leave a 500 pm accommodation at the current market. If you take a mortgage you'll be paying more in interests and then add property tax, maintenance and management fees. Buying a house with a mortgage you'll be 'burning' more money then currently, before you repay any capital.


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    #14
    cannotlogin
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,172 ✭✭✭cannotlogin


    Clearly a thread full of freeloaders.

    Some of us work and the rest just leech of the State, i.e. the workers.

    People aren't even grateful fof the hand up they get any more, like suing the council for injuries gained in the free house.


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    #15
    tretorn
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,800 ✭✭✭tretorn


    Nice that you can fix up the council at the end of the year too.
    Hope you are fully tax compliant so all income is included for rent calculation.


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    #16
    rob316
    Registered Users Posts: 17,973 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    Heres Johnny wrote: »
    Get over it. Not helpful. The man wants to buy a house. Mortgage holder myself I saved, but this man wants to better himself and buy so leave him at it.

    Thank you.

    The current house is too small, I'd have bought it years ago if it had an extra bedroom and garden but it doesn't. Doesn't suit my needs anymore and I've already stayed longer than I had planned.


    Ya the dream is a nice 3 bed semi in the suburbs with garden but my budget is off. Uprooting to the sticks isn't an option I've got a child with special needs who is settled and I depend alot on the support of my parents with him.

    My head is saying wait a while sit back, improve our finances and hope we can get a new build in a few years.


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    #17
    rob316
    Registered Users Posts: 17,973 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    tretorn wrote: »
    Nice that you can fix up the council at the end of the year too.
    Hope you are fully tax compliant so all income is included for rent calculation.

    None of your business


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    #18
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    keep it civil please folks.


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    #19
    Heres Johnny
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,738 ✭✭✭Heres Johnny


    rob316 wrote: »
    Heres Johnny wrote: »
    Get over it. Not helpful. The man wants to buy a house. Mortgage holder myself I saved, but this man wants to better himself and buy so leave him at it.

    Thank you.

    The current house is too small, I'd have bought it years ago if it had an extra bedroom and garden but it doesn't. Doesn't suit my needs anymore and I've already stayed longer than I had planned.


    Ya the dream is a nice 3 bed semi in the suburbs with garden but my budget is off. Uprooting to the sticks isn't an option I've got a child with special needs who is settled and I depend alot on the support of my parents with him.

    My head is saying wait a while sit back, improve our finances and hope we can get a new build in a few years.


    Yeah just keep plugging away saving. At least your deposit will keep up with any house price inflation that might happen. If there's a price drop, you're closer still although credit can be hard to come by in a falling market.
    I've worked in a lot of areas in finance including property/mortgages and understand a lot of fundamentals of pricing. I called the 2008 bust (not with certainty of course but a strong gut feeling) and held off buying my own first home. I bought the same house I fancied that cost 360k in 2008 for 220k in 2010 when the development was put back on the market. So busts do happen, however I see a lot of fundamentals in Irish economy and property that weren't there in 2007. Primarily the fact that a lot of demand is coming from people looking for a long term home rather than the horrible phrase getting on the property ladder, also known as speculating and buying to flip them soon after. So I can't see a repeat like that to be honest. But best of luck and don't mind the begrudgers here.


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    #20
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    cannotlogin, cop yourself on.

    several off-topic posts deleted.

    Do not feed the troll please folks.


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    #21
    Wexforllion
    Registered Users Posts: 34 ✭Wexforllion


    May be worth sticking with council house for some time longer only because its a good opportunity to save more.
    I assume you have managed to save up a good deposit?

    I must admit its a bit disheartening to hear your situation as I know people who are struggling to buy while renting at crazy prices. But I guess you have to do what you can in your own situation.


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    #22
    Fol20
    Registered Users Posts: 3,624 ✭✭✭Fol20


    rob316 wrote: »
    Thank you.

    The current house is too small, I'd have bought it years ago if it had an extra bedroom and garden but it doesn't. Doesn't suit my needs anymore and I've already stayed longer than I had planned.


    Ya the dream is a nice 3 bed semi in the suburbs with garden but my budget is off. Uprooting to the sticks isn't an option I've got a child with special needs who is settled and I depend alot on the support of my parents with him.

    My head is saying wait a while sit back, improve our finances and hope we can get a new build in a few years.

    250k is just below what your looking for in the city. Your only about 10/20k above 2 bed apartments at that price. Is carrigaline or glanmire too far out for you? You might be able to get a 3 bed in those areas for 250k


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    #23
    Nikki Sixx
    Closed Accounts Posts: 426 ✭✭Nikki Sixx


    Just be glad you have a cushy set up and ride out the next few years. Demand is too crazy at the moment and prices are too high.


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    #24
    utmbuilder
    Registered Users Posts: 467 ✭✭utmbuilder


    price growth has been in the region of 1.8% in Dublin, prices dropped in Kildare, and Waterford

    highest price growth in 2018/2019 was Mayo at 4%, rest of the country typically on 2% growth.

    48,000 approx mortgages drawndown in 2018

    almost 19,000 new homes built in 2018

    home purchases have not increased on 2015, 2016, 2017

    central banking regulation's are limiting the number of buyers, and second hand housing stock is being cannibalized by new builds, at a rate of 200 to 250 per 700 houses.


  • Options
    #25
    Cuddlesworth
    Registered Users Posts: 13,981 ✭✭✭✭Cuddlesworth


    rob316 wrote: »
    So I'm looking for a bit of advice.

    Do I buy now or wait couple years?

    I'm currently in a council house paying about 400 to 500 a month (it's variable I just settle up with the council at the end of the year according to my earnings). Wife and 1 kid in cork city.

    I could buy in the next few months a property for 250ish but I'm not exactly satisfied with the options.
    I want a 3 bed in the city suburbs.

    As I'm not paying market rate rent I'm not under mad pressure to get out of where I am but I'm just terrified will I be priced out if I wait 2 years or so or will I have better options.

    My head is wrecked we can't decide on what to do.

    When you buy a house you have to pay insurance(house and life), property tax, repairs/maintenance costs. They really add up over time, people tend to just focus on rent vs mortgage, not rent vs cost of owning a property.

    If you don't mind the house or the area, and there isn't any specific reason to leave right now, then if I was in your position I would be hammering away at my savings. Having a large deposit so you can buy the house you want in the area you want at a rate that is affordable.

    Anybody who has a problem with that should really be contacting their local county Councillors to find out why there is no real incentive to leave council housing, not having a go at people who can avail of it.


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    #26
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users Posts: 26,283 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    utmbuilder wrote: »
    price growth has been in the region of 1.8% in Dublin, prices dropped in Kildare, and Waterford

    highest price growth in 2018/2019 was Mayo at 4%, rest of the country typically on 2% growth.

    48,000 approx mortgages drawndown in 2018

    almost 19,000 new homes built in 2018

    home purchases have not increased on 2015, 2016, 2017

    central banking regulation's are limiting the number of buyers, and second hand housing stock is being cannibalized by new builds, at a rate of 200 to 250 per 700 houses.

    Im so glad the CB limits have held, christ knows some people have chanced their arm with them.


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    #27
    utmbuilder
    Registered Users Posts: 467 ✭✭utmbuilder


    Eric Cartman wrote: »
    Im so glad the CB limits have held, christ knows some people have chanced their arm with them.

    Will help economy in long run, my mortgage is 900, with 75K+ income , personal loans about 200, and over 3 years, power / gas about 25 a week. bb 65 with phone and tv, car fuel will be gone if i get a toyota hybrid jeep

    20% going on mortgage is comfortable, if the economy went belly up again


    still impossible to know where to save or invest however to meet inflation,


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    #28
    douglashyde
    Registered Users Posts: 694 ✭✭✭douglashyde


    cannotlogin wrote: »
    This sickens me.

    Wish I could pay SFA to rent a council house at a subsidised rate while having capacity to save to buy.

    This comment sickens me.

    What would you have the OP do? They're trying to better themselves and their position in life, get out of a council house, get a mortgage & get a house of their own. Our system is broken - not this person's fault.

    @OP - no one can predict what will happen in the next few years. We are the end of a overheated bull run, a recession is around the corner, however the next one won't likely crash house prices.

    To answer your question specifically, if I was in your shoes, I'd buy.


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    #29
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    tretorn, last post deleted. Don't post in this thread again.


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