King George Ascot 2019

tryfix · 07-07-2019 1:25am #1

Enable 1/1
Crystal Ocean 4/1
Sea Of Class. 11/2
Anthony Van Dyck. 10/1
Defoe. 12/1
Japan. 16/1
Magical. 16/1
Masar. 16/1
Waldgeist. 20/1
Cross Counter. 20/1
Kew Gardens. 20/1
Cheval Grand. 20/1
Broome. 25/1
Sovereign. 25/1
Ghaiyyath. 33/1
Lah Ti Dar. 33/1
Mirage Dancer. 33/1
Fleeting. 40/1
Pink Dogwood. 40/1
Salouen. 50/1
Coronet. 50/1

Enable will rightly be all the rage and John Gosden says that's where she's going after winning yesterday's Eclipse. On a strict line of form using Magical as the yardstick Crystal Ocean has the measure of her.

There's little enough between Enable, Sea Of Class, Magical and Crystal Ocean on form. Magical is supposedly being rested for an Autumn campaign so she's sort of out.

O'Brien said that Anthony Van Dyck and Sovereign are being aimed at it, but he didn't come across as being too genuine on that. I could see AVD turning up but not Sovereign. Japan is being aimed at the Grand Prix De Paris.

Defoe is a big improver this year but still not good enough.

Masar, Waldgeist and Cheval Grand all have high class form and are overpriced.

Crystal Ocean will do for me.

HarshOstrich · 07-07-2019 7:52am

tryfix wrote: »

Enable 1/1
Crystal Ocean 4/1
Sea Of Class. 11/2
Anthony Van Dyck. 10/1
Defoe. 12/1
Japan. 16/1
Magical. 16/1
Masar. 16/1
Waldgeist. 20/1
Cross Counter. 20/1
Kew Gardens. 20/1
Cheval Grand. 20/1
Broome. 25/1
Sovereign. 25/1
Ghaiyyath. 33/1
Lah Ti Dar. 33/1
Mirage Dancer. 33/1
Fleeting. 40/1
Pink Dogwood. 40/1
Salouen. 50/1
Coronet. 50/1

Enable will rightly be all the rage and John Gosden says that's where she's going after winning yesterday's Eclipse. On a strict line of form using Magical as the yardstick Crystal Ocean has the measure of her.

There's little enough between Enable, Sea Of Class, Magical and Crystal Ocean on form. Magical is supposedly being rested for an Autumn campaign so she's sort of out.

O'Brien said that Anthony Van Dyck and Sovereign are being aimed at it, but he didn't come across as being too genuine on that. I could see AVD turning up but not Sovereign. Japan is being aimed at the Grand Prix De Paris.

Defoe is a big improver this year but still not good enough.

Masar, Waldgeist and Cheval Grand all have high class form and are overpriced.

Crystal Ocean will do for me.

Have a look at the kempton race enable beat crystal ocean and you will see he has very little chance.
Sea of class would be a danger if there was a really strong pace.

Morgans · 07-07-2019 10:29am

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Have a look at the kempton race enable beat crystal ocean and you will see he has very little chance.
Sea of class would be a danger if there was a really strong pace.

Before dismissing Crystal Ocean's chances like that, I'd look at Stoute's record in the race, especially with 5yos and the clear improvement that Crystal Ocean continues to make. The solid and value option.

Morgans · 07-07-2019 10:41am

4/1 Crystal Ocean will look value now. Sadly

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/sea-of-class-fighting-for-her-life-after-career-ending-bout-of-colic/389227

tryfix · 07-07-2019 11:06am

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Have a look at the kempton race enable beat crystal ocean and you will see he has very little chance.
Sea of class would be a danger if there was a really strong pace.

He was giving 8lbs ( 5lbs minus the sex allowance ) to Enable and he was beaten 3 1/2 L which is the same as being beaten by 1/2 L when the 5lbs extra weight is taken into account ( for the race Enable was given a 126 RPR and Crystal Ocean was given 127 RPR ). Then there's the All Weather surface and small field virtual match nature of the race to be taken into account, Enable is at her best when she can build a good lead and play catch me if you can.

In Enable's Arc wins she beat Waldgeist by 1 1/2 L in 2017 and in 2018 she beat him by 1 3/4 L . On both occasions the comments say not clear run for Waldgeist.

In this year's Prince Of Wales Crystal Ocean beat Waldgeist by 4 1/2L.

Enable has faced Magical twice, in the Breeders Cup Turf she beat her 3/4L, in yesterday's Eclipse she beat her by 3/4L. Crystal Ocean beat her 1 1/4 L.

On recent racing form figures Crystal Ocean would beat Enable.

There are other factors at play, Enable has an X factor which is tactical speed which is why she's given more credit for her wins than the bare form of them would imply she deserves. Also she looks to be in better shape this year than last.

Crystal Ocean improved 11Lbs between 3 and 4 and at Ascot this year and last year he has shown plenty of tactical speed. Given Michael Stoute's record with improving his older horses it's quite possible that Crystal Ocean has improved from 4 to 5. As a 4yo he ran to an OR of 129 in last year's King George on Good to Firm ( fast by 2.66 ) Vs the 126 OR Enable achieved when winning the King George on Good to Soft ( slow by 7.72 ) as a 3yo when she was at the height of her powers.

It's basically a question of which horse turns up in better form on the day and which one is best suited to the ground conditions. I agree that Enable's X factor makes her a worthy favourite but Crystal Ocean is value at 4 times her price. Plus there's the small matter to be considered of whatever else turns up including whatever darts Ballydoyle fires.

tryfix · 07-07-2019 11:14am

Morgans wrote: »

4/1 Crystal Ocean will look value now. Sadly

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/sea-of-class-fighting-for-her-life-after-career-ending-bout-of-colic/389227

Such a pity, at least it looks like that she will survive.

HarshOstrich · 07-07-2019 11:42am

Its dangerous to take lengths of victory from different races and compare them as obviously there are many different factors at play.
Enable was only 85 per cent yesterday as gosden said and in the breeders cup last year im sure she was'nt her best after a tough race in the arc.
That kempton race last year enable would have been in similar condition to yesterday and crystal ocean was ultra fit, i know crystal ocean will meet enable on much better terms in the king george but she was eased down in beating him over 3 lengths at kempton and i cant see him touching her.

tryfix · 07-07-2019 12:44pm

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Its dangerous to take lengths of victory from different races and compare them as obviously there are many different factors at play.
Enable was only 85 per cent yesterday as gosden said and in the breeders cup last year im sure she was'nt her best after a tough race in the arc.
That kempton race last year enable would have been in similar condition to yesterday and crystal ocean was ultra fit, i know crystal ocean will meet enable on much better terms in the king george but she was eased down in beating him over 3 lengths at kempton and i cant see him touching her.

She is a practically unbeaten horse so there's always the possibility that she's got more in the tank than her bare form which is why I concede that she's a worthy favourite despite the form book.

After warning about taking beaten lengths too seriously, you yourself go on to taking her all weather win in a trial race over Crystal Ocean as being Gospel despite it coming in a race in which he was conceding her 8 ( 5) lbs where he was using the same race as a comeback race after his titanic 9L clear of the rest neck defeat in the mid summer King George.

Lately Gosden talks a lot of sh1te, which is disappointing because he used to be straight up. An 85% fit horse would be running at somewhere approaching collapsing in the heat of a Gp1 race. She was peachy yesterday, there wasn't a pick of fat on her stomach, she looked the best that I can ever remember her looking before a race.

Dettori, who has been on board for nine of her ten wins, said: "Riding Enable the last month, she's coming along nicely. We missed Royal Ascot because we felt two more weeks [off the track] would've been better for her.

"Her preparation has gone well. She hasn't raced since the Breeders' Cup but she's a champion and I am very much looking forward to riding her again to show the public that she is still here.

"She's been working okay. She is notoriously not a very good work horse so it's very hard to gauge. Fitness has been an emphasis and priority at the moment and she has come through really well. We are very pleased with her preparation.

He added: "When you go to those kinds of races [Coral-Eclipse] you have to be fully showing up. She hasn't run since the Breeders' Cup so you would have to think she's entitled to improve a little bit for the race, but we go there as fit as we can get her and ready to go."

John Gosden and connections said on Monday they "could not be happier" with Enable as she featured among 13 confirmations for the 1m2f event.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/wait-is-nearly-over-as-enable-looks-set-for-coral-eclipse-comeback/388279

Does any of that pre race talk and her performance yesterday say 85% fit? Utter scutter from Gosden. I suppose 'she wasn't at her best' after running just two races in 2018 including winning an Arc by approximately the same distance as she won it in 2017 when she was on fire. The comments about her being over the top in the Breeders Cup after just two races all season came from Gosden's being mentally unprepared for Magical to give her a hard race. If Magical hadn't been in the field Enable would have won it by 9 3/4L and Gosden would have been proclaiming her as the best ever.

She's a truly legendary mare in what I think is close to the best physical shape she's ever been in, so yeah she could easily do something special at Ascot ( and Gosden is a magician ) but on the formbook she just hasn't the form to easily beat a fit Crystal Ocean. It's a bit gobsmacking to think that last year Stoute ( another magician ) transformed Crystal Ocean from a St Leger second into being one of the highest rated Colts of the last decade.

Always Tired · 08-07-2019 4:48am

Awful to hear about Sea of Class, hope she makes a recovery.

Crazy to think a horse that is so strong and healthy and young can be fighting for its life so suddenly like that.

And im sorry tryfix but you sound like you are trying really hard to talk yourself into backing Crystal Ocean now. Saying Enable doesnt have the form to beat a horse she's already beat. Crystal Ocean was fit for this race last year and what happened? And what happened then to the horse that beat her?

It's okay if you have a soft spot for her. but I don't think the evidence is crying out for her to reverse the form. I wouldn't get carried away with her last win, how many of AOBs favorites flopped and were stuck looking at the arse of Frankie's horse when the line came? It happened all week at Ascot and it's going to be the same track and just another day at the office for Dettori and Gosden bagging whatever they aim Enable at.

tryfix · 08-07-2019 2:45pm

Always Tired wrote: »

Awful to hear about Sea of Class, hope she makes a recovery.

Crazy to think a horse that is so strong and healthy and young can be fighting for its life so suddenly like that.

And im sorry tryfix but you sound like you are trying really hard to talk yourself into backing Crystal Ocean now. Saying Enable doesnt have the form to beat a horse she's already beat. Crystal Ocean was fit for this race last year and what happened? And what happened then to the horse that beat her?

It's okay if you have a soft spot for her. but I don't think the evidence is crying out for her to reverse the form. I wouldn't get carried away with her last win, how many of AOBs favorites flopped and were stuck looking at the arse of Frankie's horse when the line came? It happened all week at Ascot and it's going to be the same track and just another day at the office for Dettori and Gosden bagging whatever they aim Enable at.

A little correction before I start, I said

" but on the formbook she just hasn't the form to easily beat a fit Crystal Ocean"

NOTE THE USE OF EASILY BEAT rather than BEAT.

That's a very good point about what happened in last year's King George and afterwards.

True that about both Poet's Word and Crystal Ocean being beaten after the King George. It was after all a titanic struggle where both horses finished over 9L clear of Coronet in third. It's no surprise that it left its mark on both horses, although Poet's Word ( who retired after that race ) getting defeated by Roaring Lion over 10 1/2f doesn't read too badly when you see what Roaring Lion did last year at 10f while Poet's Word himself needed every yard of 12f to get to a Crystal Ocean that had flown in the King George. While Crystal Ocean's defeat at the hands of the mighty Enable in his next race was worth just 1 Lb despite the margin, he was giving the champ 8Lbs.

Coronet was over 9 L behind in 3rd in last year's King George, in her next race she ran Sea Of Class to 2 1/4 L in the Yorkshire Oaks. Sea Of Class went on to run Enable to a short head in the Arc. Coronet then went on to run Magical to 1L at Ascot, Magical then went on to twice finish within 3/4L of Enable while Magical was given a 1 1/4L beating by Crystal Ocean prior to her finishing 3/4L second to Enable on Saturday.

Crystal Ocean deserves a wee bit more respect than to be completely dismissed because Enable gave him a 1Lb beating last year on the All Weather.

I'm not that fond at all of Crystal Ocean, it's highly odd how much improvement Stoute got out of him, but at 4/1 he was value for this race.

I have a very soft spot for Magical in the Arc, it's only wishful thinking that she can follow in Found's hoofprints by upping her game on Arc day. O'Brien's 3yos are never ready to win an Arc but his 4yo and up horses are a different story

PhuckHugh22 · 08-07-2019 4:06pm

Always Tired wrote: »

Awful to hear about Sea of Class, hope she makes a recovery.

Crazy to think a horse that is so strong and healthy and young can be fighting for its life so suddenly like that.

And im sorry tryfix but you sound like you are trying really hard to talk yourself into backing Crystal Ocean now. Saying Enable doesnt have the form to beat a horse she's already beat. Crystal Ocean was fit for this race last year and what happened? And what happened then to the horse that beat her?

It's okay if you have a soft spot for her. but I don't think the evidence is crying out for her to reverse the form. I wouldn't get carried away with her last win, how many of AOBs favorites flopped and were stuck looking at the arse of Frankie's horse when the line came? It happened all week at Ascot and it's going to be the same track and just another day at the office for Dettori and Gosden bagging whatever they aim Enable at.

Crystal Ocean is a full horse!! He is not a her.

Always Tired · 08-07-2019 4:33pm

Im from Donegal everything is a she. I think we do this to compensate for the lack of available women.

I actually think Magical is a good shout for the Arc there was nothing at all wrong with her run on Saturday she has tons of ability. In fact I would have been less surprised if she beat enable on Sat than i would be if CO beats her at Ascot.

tryfix · 08-07-2019 6:45pm

Recent Winners

2007. Dylan Thomas. A O'Brien 4yo 5/4f
2008. Duke Of Marmalade. A O'Brien. 4yo 4/6f
2009. Conduit. M Stoute 4yo. 13/8f
2010. Harbinger M Stoute 4yo 4/1
2011. Nathaniel. J Gosden 3yo. 11/2
2012. Danedream P Schiergen 4yo. 9/1
2013. Novellist. A Wolher 4yo. 13/2
2014. Taghrooda. J Gosden 3yo. 7/2 2f
2015. Postponed. L Cumani 4yo. 6/1
2016. Highland Reel. A O'Brien 4yo. 13/8f
2017. Enable. J Gosden 3yo. 5/4f
2019. Poet's Word. M Stoute 4yo. 7/4 2f

Not much of a race for outsiders, but you never know :pac:

Andrew00 · 08-07-2019 6:56pm

Enable will win it, comfortably.

Same lads trying to find something to beat her are the same that try and get stradivarius and Altior beat. No point

tryfix · 16-07-2019 9:07pm

.Better than Enable and Winx: Crystal Ocean is officially the world's finest
Ratings suggest Crystal Ocean v Enable will be a King George for the ages

A new name has appeared at the head of the latest Longines World's Best Racehorse rankings, with Crystal Ocean now officially the finest around on turf or dirt.

Sir Evelyn Rothschild's five-year-old son of Sea The Stars earned a mark of 127 when sluicing through the Ascot mud to claim a first Group 1 success in last month's Prince of Wales's Stakes.

Intriguingly Crystal Ocean is 4lb clear of the 123 awarded to Enable after her comeback success in the Coral-Eclipse on Saturday, meaning that, even allowing for her 3lb sex allowance, she will need to improve when the pair meet in the Qipco-sponsored King George back at Ascot this month.

the IFHA panel of handicappers have recognised a significant improvement in Crystal Ocean, who finished 2018 with an official mark of 125 following a pair of runner-up efforts at the top level behind fellow Sir Michael Stoute-trained inmate Poet's Word and World Champion Cracksman.

Enable also ended up on 125 at the end of 2018, 3lb lower than her 2017 end-of-term figure of 128.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/better-than-enable-and-winx-crystal-ocean-officially-the-world-s-finest/389933

Whoever wins this will be World Champion 12f horse, at least until the Arc has been run.

O'Brien has won the three top 12f 3yo races for colts in Ireland, England and France with three different horses. Anyone give him a chance of defeating either of the big two? Go Sovereign for another big surprise :pac:

IAMAMORON · 16-07-2019 11:01pm

I think Enable looks fairly bomb proof.

However I love taking favourites on. The only 2 you could pick are the Derby winners, they would both need to improve at least 2-3 lengths.

I still believe if AVD was ridden closer up to the pace he would have won at the Curragh. The only way he beats Enable is if he stays on like he did at the Derby, but it is a massive "if" in fairness.

I doubt Japan will run.

Alternatively if you stretch your neck out about half a furlong and you take the line that Sovereign's win was no fluke and that he is a dour stayer who likes to front run..... at 20/1 you could get a run for your money. But 20/1 is about right, it is highly doubtful.

tryfix · 22-07-2019 1:13am

O'Brien said: "The plan is to run Anthony Van Dyck on Saturday – we're happy with him. Sovereign, who won the Irish Derby, is on a break and won't be running and neither will Magical, who is also on a break.

Hunting Horn, Magic Wand and Norway are all entered and are possible runners, although we won't be finalising plans until later in the week

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/game-on-derby-winner-anthony-van-dyck-to-tackle-enable-and-crystal-ocean/391397

O'Brien sending Derby winner AVD over and the race should suit the horse who stays well. Couldn't be having him myself on all known form, but I could see him being well backed which will shore up the prices of the outsiders in the race.

tryfix · 22-07-2019 1:50am

Hmm, rethinking AVDs challenge for the King George and here's a stat that's worth bearing in mind. Aidan O'Brien has only ever sent one of his Epsom Derby winners to the King George and that was the mighty Galileo.

AVD is not Galileo but he is a stayer, so on stats alone he's one to respect.

TheMilkyPirate · 22-07-2019 6:29am

Enable just wins.

Always Tired · 22-07-2019 7:07am

tryfix wrote: »

Hmm, rethinking AVDs challenge for the King George and here's a stat that's worth bearing in mind. Aidan O'Brien has only ever sent one of his Epsom Derby winners to the King George and that was the mighty Galileo.

AVD is not Galileo but he is a stayer, so on stats alone he's one to respect.

You go ahead and bear that in mind. I'll bear in mind how absolutely owned AOB and his 'top' jock have been by Gosden and Dettori all summer. Just did it again right here in Ireland winning the big one at the Curragh over the weekend, will have little trouble doing so again at Frankie's favorite track.

These Derby winners seem to do precious little afterwards and if anything even sniffs Enable it won't be an O'Brien horse. Unlike him Gosden actually knows what he has and doesn't have to scattershot every race to win it. He has the best flat horse in training and the best flat jockey. Crystal Ocean will make it a good test but will do no better than a close 2nd again like last year. every other horse is irrelevant now that Sea of Class is done.

tryfix · 22-07-2019 7:41am

Always Tired wrote: »

You go ahead and bear that in mind. I'll bear in mind how absolutely owned AOB and his 'top' jock have been by Gosden and Dettori all summer. Just did it again right here in Ireland winning the big one at the Curragh over the weekend, will have little trouble doing so again at Frankie's favorite track.

These Derby winners seem to do precious little afterwards and if anything even sniffs Enable it won't be an O'Brien horse. Unlike him Gosden actually knows what he has and doesn't have to scattershot every race to win it. He has the best flat horse in training and the best flat jockey. Crystal Ocean will make it a good test but will do no better than a close 2nd again like last year. every other horse is irrelevant now that Sea of Class is done.

Obviously the proven 4/7 and 11/4 shots will be beating AVD on all known form, particularly on assistance from the saddle. I'd imagine that Coolmore would be very content to let Moore hold up AVD while the big two cut the throats of anything that goes with them letting Moore bring AVD home in 3rd or 4th and that will be job done as regards restoring some credibility to AVD's damaged reputation.

Coolmore could have sent Magical who has been crying out this year for 12f against the front two. I suppose that would have pushed AVD out of the places.

Gosden and Stoute are some cookies at getting very consistent performances and very high ratings out of their stars. O'Brien's yard is a conveyor belt for the industrial scale production of stallion and broodmare prospects, the multiple winners are enough for them although it's strange how with all the class training performances that O'Brien has delivered he still can't produce the very high rating horses that Gosden has been churning out year on year.

Blinkers_off · 22-07-2019 10:29am

Always Tired wrote: »

You go ahead and bear that in mind. I'll bear in mind how absolutely owned AOB and his 'top' jock have been by Gosden and Dettori all summer. Just did it again right here in Ireland winning the big one at the Curragh over the weekend, will have little trouble doing so again at Frankie's favorite track.

These Derby winners seem to do precious little afterwards and if anything even sniffs Enable it won't be an O'Brien horse. Unlike him Gosden actually knows what he has and doesn't have to scattershot every race to win it. He has the best flat horse in training and the best flat jockey. Crystal Ocean will make it a good test but will do no better than a close 2nd again like last year. every other horse is irrelevant now that Sea of Class is done.

best my hole, does no more than ryan on steering jobs, colin keane made an absolute show of him at killarney

tryfix · 27-07-2019 3:47pm

A great battle, Waldgeist finished a bit too close to rate it too highly. Enable was possibly at her best ever which is amazing given that she won the Arc at 3.

Andrew00 · 27-07-2019 4:03pm

Better than Frankel

Morgans · 27-07-2019 4:30pm

Andrew00 wrote: »

Better than Frankel

no

tryfix · 27-07-2019 4:34pm

Andrew00 wrote: »

Better than Frankel

Hardly, but more admirably competitive than him. There's been no cherrypicking of races or avoiding travelling with Enable. She's done it at Epsom, The Curragh, York, Chantilly, Longchamp, Sandown, Ascot and Churchill Downs.

On reflection though the form today doesn't measure up to the visual impression it made.

The front three ran almost to the pound with each other.

1st Enable OR 125 with the 3lbs sex allowance

2nd Crystal Ocean OR 127 beaten a neck is the superior horse because he had to give her the 3lbs sex allowance. Through him Enable ran to OR 125

3rd Waldgeist OR 122 beaten 2L in total = 3lbs through him Enable ran to OR 122

Soft ground form..

Morgans · 27-07-2019 4:55pm

How ridiculous would it be for people to complain that Enable never won a group 1 mile, and has to prove if she is really all that quick using that. Yet, its thrown at Frankel constantly. I guess it appears smart. Cos he never went to an Arc? He was a 8f-10f horse, and Enable is a 10f-12f horse. Both have been campaigned perfectly to get the most out of their careers.

tryfix · 27-07-2019 5:32pm

Morgans wrote: »

How ridiculous would it be for people to complain that Enable never won a group 1 mile, and has to prove if she is really all that quick using that. Yet, its thrown at Frankel constantly. I guess it appears smart. Cos he never went to an Arc? He was a 8f-10f horse, and Enable is a 10f-12f horse. Both have been campaigned perfectly to get the most out of their careers.

There's really no comparison in form between them, Frankel was a stone+ better runner than Enable is. Unlike Enable, Frankel has been actually been given a rating that makes him the greatest since International ratings were introduced. Frankel isn't effectively knocked for not winning at 12f , he proved his stamina over 10 and 10 1/2f where he showed no lack of stamina.

Frankel was trained to not be beaten, Enable was thrown into ultra competitive and rough races like the Oaks, Irish Oaks, Arc, Breeders Cup Turf etc. She won G1 races in 4 different countries with all the adaptation that required. Frankel never traveled further away from his stable than to Yorkshire as a 4yo, his team were in tight control of his racing environment knowing things such as courses and the regulatory environment intimately.

The greats like Nijinsky who won in Ireland and England as a 2yo and then as a 3yo he won the 2,000 Guineas, Derby Double, King George and St Leger getting a bout of ringworm and was still just beaten a head in the Arc. Sea The Stars and Dancing Brave are the category that Frankel is being thrown into. Frankel as a 3yo lacked the constitution to do what Nijinsky, Dancing Brave and Sea The Stars did.

The Irish Champion Stakes at 10f was there for Frankel to prove himself outside of England, his team preferred to keep him in his comfort zone back at Ascot. The very tight stage managing that went into Frankel's career is why people have a problem with his place in history.

WicklowBrave · 27-07-2019 5:41pm

Morgans wrote: »

How ridiculous would it be for people to complain that Enable never won a group 1 mile, and has to prove if she is really all that quick using that. Yet, its thrown at Frankel constantly. I guess it appears smart. Cos he never went to an Arc? He was a 8f-10f horse, and Enable is a 10f-12f horse. Both have been campaigned perfectly to get the most out of their careers.

Because the thoroughbred exists on the basis of running over 12 furlongs. And you cannot say Frankel was campaigned perfectly. It was so unambitious considering what we were dealing with. Had the ability to win a July Cup and win an Arc, when will we ever see that again? Never mind that he didn’t even venture beyond Yorkshire.

Morgans · 27-07-2019 5:49pm

tryfix wrote: »

There's really no comparison in form between them, Frankel was a stone+ better runner than Enable is. Unlike Enable, Frankel has been actually been given a rating that makes him the greatest since International ratings were introduced. Frankel isn't effectively knocked for not winning at 12f , he proved his stamina over 10 and 10 1/2f where he showed no lack of stamina.

Frankel was trained to not be beaten, Enable was thrown into ultra competitive and rough races like the Oaks, Irish Oaks, Arc, Breeders Cup Turf etc. She won G1 races in 4 different countries with all the adaptation that required. Frankel never traveled further away from his stable than to Yorkshire as a 4yo, his team were in tight control of his racing environment knowing things such as courses and the regulatory environment intimately.

The greats like Nijinsky who won in Ireland and England as a 2yo and then as a 3yo he won the 2,000 Guineas, Derby Double, King George and St Leger getting a bout of ringworm and was still just beaten a head in the Arc. Sea The Stars and Dancing Brave are the category that Frankel is being thrown into. Frankel as a 3yo lacked the constitution to do what Nijinsky, Dancing Brave and Sea The Stars did.

The Irish Champion Stakes at 10f was there for Frankel to prove himself outside of England, his team preferred to keep him in his comfort zone back at Ascot. The very tight stage managing that went into Frankel's career is why people have a problem with his place in history.

We can all read racerecords and whichever handicapping system you want to use. Can you name the horse that beat Nijinksy in the Arc without googling or what was second in the Leger to him? For the record, O'brien got huge criticism for leaving the arc behind Nijinksy at Doncaster. As for the Oaks, Irish Oaks are Breeders Cup Turf being competitive. Jeez, the Irish Oaks competitive. Its irrelevant.

One factor you seem to have missed is how unusual it is for a horse of Frankel class to race at 4, and to have it said so early in his 3 yo career that he would do so (Partly because of the health of Khalid Abdullah and Henry Cecil). If you are only having a three year old career, you can afford to race more often - be it Nijinksy, Rock of Gilbraltar, Nashwan, Dancing Brave, Sea the Stars. It was not a lack of consitution, it was a planned out career. At the moment, Frankel has raced more than Enable.

The idea that Frankel needed to come to Ireland to beat SNOW FAIRY (of all winners) in the irish Champion. The idea that they ducked the challenge for teh easy option of beating Cirrus Des Aigles (check out his heavy ground form, and probably the best 12f horse in Europe at the time) on heavy ground in Ascot was the easy option just shows how utterly ridiculous that criticism is.

The hype around Frankel can be hard to take but he is a long way ahead of Enable and anything else in the 21st century.

Morgans · 27-07-2019 5:58pm

WicklowBrave wrote: »

Because the thoroughbred exists on the basis of running over 12 furlongs. And you cannot say Frankel was campaigned perfectly. It was so unambitious considering what we were dealing with. Had the ability to win a July Cup and win an Arc, when will we ever see that again? Never mind that he didn’t even venture beyond Yorkshire.

Yeah, mostly nonsense. The 12f thoroughbred has been propped up by Ballydoyle for decades. It used to be that the Ascot Gold Cup was the only race that mattered. They don't breed for 12f in USA, France's derby has been reduced, and 10f is worldwide the blend of speed and stamina that classicly sought. Chapman's ignorant comment today that Anthony Van Dych wont be seen again, and is more likely to sire a Triumph winner, shows the current regard for 12f horses these days. The old joke about O'Brien was all his derby horses could win a July Cup as it was attractive for breeders to promote their horses as such.

And I can say he was campaigned perfectly. In fact, I think he was just about done with racing in his last race, where he was mulish, almost refused and boiled over beforehand.

tryfix · 27-07-2019 7:13pm

Morgans wrote: »

We can all read racerecords and whichever handicapping system you want to use. Can you name the horse that beat Nijinksy in the Arc without googling or what was second in the Leger to him? For the record, O'brien got huge criticism for leaving the arc behind Nijinksy at Doncaster. As for the Oaks, Irish Oaks are Breeders Cup Turf being competitive. Jeez, the Irish Oaks competitive. Its irrelevant.

One factor you seem to have missed is how unusual it is for a horse of Frankel class to race at 4, and to have it said so early in his 3 yo career that he would do so (Partly because of the health of Khalid Abdullah and Henry Cecil). If you are only having a three year old career, you can afford to race more often - be it Nijinksy, Rock of Gilbraltar, Nashwan, Dancing Brave, Sea the Stars. It was not a lack of consitution, it was a planned out career. At the moment, Frankel has raced more than Enable.

The idea that Frankel needed to come to Ireland to beat SNOW FAIRY (of all winners) in the irish Champion. The idea that they ducked the challenge for teh easy option of beating Cirrus Des Aigles (check out his heavy ground form, and probably the best 12f horse in Europe at the time) on heavy ground in Ascot was the easy option just shows how utterly ridiculous that criticism is.

The hype around Frankel can be hard to take but he is a long way ahead of Enable and anything else in the 21st century.

Enable is a great filly not on ratings but on her ability to battle to win G1 races. She doesn't enter into my thoughts of who the great racehorses are.

As for Frankel his legacy is a lot more complicated than just looking at his ratings and saying yeah he's the greatest.

It's not the idea that Frankel needed to come to Ireland to beat Snow Fairy that mattered, it's the idea that he needed to travel outside of England to show his durability that mattered. Wear and tear, racing when conditions and timing are not optimum take their toll on horses. Frankel's 4yo career was all about his running on his team's preferred terms of timing and trips.

I'm glad that you sniggered at Snow Fairy because that's another point about Frankel's beating of Cirrus Des Aigles, it was 3L superior to Snow Fairy's Leopardstown form.

Was Snow Fairy actually less than 3L inferior to all the brilliant 10f champions of the ages?

Was Excelebration superior to Giants Causeway, George Washington? There's a list of great milers that Excelebration was elevated over ( grade inflation that elevated Frankel )

It feels churlish to crab the definitely brilliant Frankel but at every turn his status was inflated so his greatest ever status is slightly dubious.

Morgans · 27-07-2019 7:25pm

Yes Excelebration and Farhh were better than George Washington (?????wow) and Giant's Causeway. A more interesting race would be Excelebration vs King's Best from the Guineas.

Connections planned Frankel's 4yo career from half way through his 3yo career and didn't deviate for it to please people. People with no connection to the horse's desire to see him win every group race from 6f to 14f. Ballydoyle could take a leaf from Juddmonte's book in getting their horses into the right races.

EDIT - The Snow Fairy comparison - I think Frankel got away with things in the Champion stakes. First time it was any form of struggle, since the St James Palace. No horse has run more 135+ performances. You can argue the toss over a pound or two but for sustained brilliant performance, he is the best by that marker.

And it is churlish. When Tiger Woods was asked if he was the best ever, he said 'im in the argument'. That's all you can do. There will never be a discussion about the greatest thoroughbreds without Frankel in the argument.

WicklowBrave · 27-07-2019 8:00pm

Morgans wrote: »

Yeah, mostly nonsense. The 12f thoroughbred has been propped up by Ballydoyle for decades. It used to be that the Ascot Gold Cup was the only race that mattered. They don't breed for 12f in USA, France's derby has been reduced, and 10f is worldwide the blend of speed and stamina that classicly sought. Chapman's ignorant comment today that Anthony Van Dych wont be seen again, and is more likely to sire a Triumph winner, shows the current regard for 12f horses these days. The old joke about O'Brien was all his derby horses could win a July Cup as it was attractive for breeders to promote their horses as such.

And I can say he was campaigned perfectly. In fact, I think he was just about done with racing in his last race, where he was mulish, almost refused and boiled over beforehand.

So you’d rather own a horse that wins an SJP, a Sussex and a QEII than a horse who wins a Derby, a KG and an Arc? The Derby might have declined in importance insofar as the breeding goes but I’d much rather own a Sea The Stars or an Enable than a champion miler.

And I know the old O’Brien ‘he’d win a July Cup’ nonsense but Frankel would genuinely have won a July Cup and he’d have probably won an Arc.

Morgans · 27-07-2019 8:08pm

WicklowBrave wrote: »

So you’d rather own a horse that wins an SJP, a Sussex and a QEII than a horse who wins a Derby, a KG and an Arc? The Derby might have declined in importance insofar as the breeding goes but I’d much rather own a Sea The Stars or an Enable than a champion miler.

And I know the old O’Brien ‘he’d win a July Cup’ nonsense but Frankel would genuinely have won a July Cup and he’d have probably won an Arc.

Me personally, i'd like a horse to win the Eider or a Midlands National ahead of the Derby. But every breeder would prefer a guineas or even better all aged 8f-10f horse ahead of a Derby winner. With the Aga Khan and some Ballydoyle lines - their Derby winners are as likely to sire a grade 1 jumper as a grade 1 flat horse.

A good line that has been repeated in the last few years is that if you think you have a Derby prospect and are sure he will stay 12f, he is probably too slow to win it.

EDIT - he may well have won a July Cup (or nunthorpe, not too many horses in history have travelled as quick as Frankel for the first 6f of the Guineas) and an Arc but you might ruin the horse. I wouldnt take the risk with a horse that good. Sure, no other miler is expected to do it.

tryfix · 27-07-2019 8:08pm

Morgans wrote: »

Yes Excelebration and Farhh were better than George Washington (?????wow) and Giant's Causeway. A more interesting race would be Excelebration vs King's Best from the Guineas.

Connections planned Frankel's 4yo career from half way through his 3yo career and didn't deviate for it to please people. People with no connection to the horse's desire to see him win every group race from 6f to 14f. Ballydoyle could take a leaf from Juddmonte's book in getting their horses into the right races.

EDIT - The Snow Fairy comparison - I think Frankel got away with things in the Champion stakes. First time it was any form of struggle, since the St James Palace. No horse has run more 135+ performances. You can argue the toss over a pound or two but for sustained brilliant performance, he is the best by that marker.

And it is churlish. When Tiger Woods was asked if he was the best ever, he said 'im in the argument'. That's all you can do. There will never be a discussion about the greatest thoroughbreds without Frankel in the argument.

Coolmore and Juddmonte. The giants of the modern era.

Like all sports it's a different ballgame these days. Dancing Brave, Mill Reef, Brigadier Gerard, Nijinsky etc they raced in a less professional racing world to today's one.

No mega outfit now would run their best 3yo stallion prospect from April through to November without a break. They simply wouldn't go to the well that often for fear of running dry. It's okay to do so with fillies because the breeding reputation of a top filly is less hard to protect and less important.

The traditional European Pattern has broken down. There's so much international racing about that the likes of the Derby have really lost their ability to draw in the best racehorses. France has destroyed their own Arc challenge by making their Derby a non staying event.

Coolmore can win record numbers of G1 races but they can no longer produce an OR 130 type 3yo from their dozens of G1 winning 3yos. Gosden has no problems producing these types, why is he so good at it and why are they so poor? They have similar bloodlines available, similar training yards, and both have access to whatever the other crowd are feeding their horses.

For a long time Coolmore have not given two fecks about ratings. They seem happy to win a race cosily rather pushing out the winner for a stunning rating. Don't they want superstars at stud?

The desire for quantity over quality at Coolmore is probably an unintended drag on the showbiz of racing.

IAMAMORON · 27-07-2019 8:36pm

Timeform Top rated horses of all time.

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/top-horses/timeforms

I am trying to not be overly controversial but I can't help stating that I think that Ireland's best racehorses have never really won the hearts of the British Handicapper.

When you see Frankel rated half a stone ahead of Sea The Stars it is a head scratcher for me. If Frankel was bred in Clonmel by a nobody and Sea the Stars was bred in middle England I can't help speculating that their ratings would be reversed.

For the record in one season Sea the Stars won the 2000,Epsom Derby,Eclipse,Juddmonte,Champion Stakes and the Arc.

Frankel didn't. They never tried him over 10f because they were terrified he wouldn't get the trip.

PhuckHugh22 · 27-07-2019 9:33pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Timeform Top rated horses of all time.

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/top-horses/timeforms

I am trying to not be overly controversial but I can't help stating that I think that Ireland's best racehorses have never really won the hearts of the British Handicapper.

When you see Frankel rated half a stone ahead of Sea The Stars it is a head scratcher for me. If Frankel was bred in Clonmel by a nobody and Sea the Stars was bred in middle England I can't help speculating that their ratings would be reversed.

For the record in one season Sea the Stars won the 2000,Epsom Derby,Eclipse,Juddmonte,Champion Stakes and the Arc.

Frankel didn't. They never tried him over 10f because they were terrified he wouldn't get the trip.

Frankel won the Juddmomte and the Champion stakes also. Both over 10.

I'm a big a Sea the Stars fan as anyone but I'd tend to agree with Frankel being half a stone better. Would personally have made it more. Greatest horse I ever seen in the flesh and seen quite a few good ones over the years.

Blinkers_off · 27-07-2019 10:23pm

Derby and Arc are the most important races in the world win neither and your not even in the conversation

IAMAMORON · 27-07-2019 10:49pm

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

Frankel won the Juddmomte and the Champion stakes also. Both over 10.

I'm a big a Sea the Stars fan as anyone but I'd tend to agree with Frankel being half a stone better. Would personally have made it more. Greatest horse I ever seen in the flesh and seen quite a few good ones over the years.

When I said over 10f I literally meant further than 10f, ie a mile and half etc. I mean, they were afraid to race him in the Eclipse, they didn't think he would get up the hill at Sandown.

I think it is fair to say that Sea the Stars had a better range than Frankel. Over time I reckon Frankel's best progeny will be sprinters or milers.

There also lies the argument of what they were beating. If you ask me STS kicked a lot more ass and took a lot more names than Frankel.
Rip Van Winkel, Mastercraftsman,( both now top sires) , Fame and Glory ( multiple group 1 winner), Conduit ( Leger winner), Dar Re Mi and I am going to get cheeky and say Youmzain:P.

Frankel beat Nathaniel in a maiden, but never took him on again. Then your left with Canford Cliffs ( a good miler but not an all time legend or anything), Excelebration, Farrh, Cirrus Des Aigles… I mean they are all decent horses , but they would have all been beaten by the horses trying to beat Sea the Stars in fairness.

Obviously there is the Thom Quelly argument, but I don't want to raise anyone's blood pressure at this stage:P

Morgans · 27-07-2019 10:57pm

Any set of criteria that allows Anthony Van Dyck, Masar, Ruler of the World to be included in the greatest racehorse ever conversation and stops Frankel, Brigadier Gerard, Secretariat, Dayjur, Dubai Millenium, Montjeu, Winx etc etc needs to be refined hugely, or better still completely abandoned as being wrong.

IAMAMORON · 27-07-2019 11:13pm

Morgans wrote: »

Any set of criteria that allows Anthony Van Dyck, Masar, Ruler of the World to be included in the greatest racehorse ever conversation and stops Frankel, Brigadier Gerard, Secretariat, Dayjur, Dubai Millenium, Montjeu, Winx etc etc needs to be refined hugely, or better still completely abandoned as being wrong.

I see what you are doing there, but with the same argument it is difficult to say that Golden Horn, Workforce etc were crap Derby winners either.

In fairness to Masar it looks like he ran into complications, he could still turn into a decent horse, although they rarely come back better after setbacks.

The Epsom Derby is a good challenge to any horse. It is the best marker each year has. Okay the track is quirky, but in the last 20 years it has been won by some seriously good horses.

PhuckHugh22 · 27-07-2019 11:19pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

When I said over 10f I literally meant further than 10f, ie a mile and half etc. I mean, they were afraid to race him in the Eclipse, they didn't think he would get up the hill at Sandown.

I think it is fair to say that Sea the Stars had a better range than Frankel. Over time I reckon Frankel's best progeny will be sprinters or milers.

There also lies the argument of what they were beating. If you ask me STS kicked a lot more ass and took a lot more names than Frankel.
Rip Van Winkel, Mastercraftsman,( both now top sires) , Fame and Glory ( multiple group 1 winner), Conduit ( Leger winner), Dar Re Mi and I am going to get cheeky and say Youmzain:P.

Frankel beat Nathaniel in a maiden, but never took him on again. Then your left with Canford Cliffs ( a good miler but not an all time legend or anything), Excelebration, Farrh, Cirrus Des Aigles… I mean they are all decent horses , but they would have all been beaten by the horses trying to beat Sea the Stars in fairness.

Obviously there is the Thom Quelly argument, but I don't want to raise anyone's blood pressure at this stage:P

I would rate Excellebration and more so CDA a fair bit better than anything STS beat tbh. But that's me. Also I don't think anyone can use the argument of Frankel's connections playing it safe when he races on at 4. Both are good horse but on everything we know from performances on the track Frankel was a better horse. I mean if people want to believe that STS was better then that is fine but ratings and everything else tell us otherwise.
I'd be of the view that I'd agree with the ratings as that is how I saw it myself at the time. Anyone who wants to take the other opinion then that's fine by me.

Morgans · 27-07-2019 11:32pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I see what you are doing there, but with the same argument it is difficult to say that Golden Horn, Workforce etc were crap Derby winners either.

In fairness to Masar it looks like he ran into complications, he could still turn into a decent horse, although they rarely come back better after setbacks.

The Epsom Derby is a good challenge to any horse. It is the best marker each year has. Okay the track is quirky, but in the last 20 years it has been won by some seriously good horses.

The Derby is a race just like any other. In fact, it has a pretty poor history of producing great horses. Third and Fourth string O'Brien horses have won 3 of the last 8 runnings. Everyone goes there with hopes. More often than not it is underwhelming, with bubbles being burst, and more often than not Derby winners do not go on to be average Group 1 winners.

And when you are talking about the greatest ever racehorses, the only Derby winners since 1999 that would have any claim whatsoever to be in the conversation is Sea The Stars.

There have been good Derby winners that go on to win Group 1 races - Golden Horn, Galileo and at a push Workforce would be in that category. Hardly stellar for 20 years history.

There has been about 8 really great Derby winners in the last 40 years. (Shergar, Nashwan, Generous, Golden Fleece, Sinndar) It is a very poor to think that the winner is automatically a true Group 1 horse.

The Irish Derby for instance used to be a better guide. No dross and usually brought the Irish adn French Derby winners together on a fairer track and no hard luck stories. Horses like El Gran Senor, Old Vic, Montjeu, St Jovite were proper animals who didnt run/win at Epsom but won at the Curragh and were true Group 1 animals of their years.

IAMAMORON · 28-07-2019 9:56am

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

I would rate Excellebration and more so CDA a fair bit better than anything STS beat tbh.

I actually can't be having this at all.

Putting Excellebration in the same category as Mastercraftsman and Rip Van Winkle is not working for me, at all. Particulary when you see the stud career Mastercraftsman has had and is having.

CDA was a brilliant consistent gelding who ran well for years, so any argument there is just going to raise decibels, but he certainly wasn't better than the aforementioned and that is before the Fame and Glory argument starts, which I am not having btw.

Now as for Thom Queally….:P:P

PhuckHugh22 · 28-07-2019 11:29am

Its probably close with RVW alright. Probably go either way depending on day of the week you ask me. But he was definitely better than mastercraftsman.

Stud careers have no basis in a discussion on who was a better racehorse so not sure why you keep going on about that.

IAMAMORON · 28-07-2019 11:47am

It is getting too subjective now, and I hear you on the stud argument.

My angle on Mastercraftsman is that even though he bumped into Sea the Stars 3 times he still managed to win 4 group 1's. He was definitely underrated given that you can argue that he could have won a Juddmonte and arguably an Irish Champion ( I agwee I am stretching here ).

The stud argument is indicating how classy he was, The Grey Gatsby, Alpha Centauri, Kingston Hill, Amazing Maria etc. Also he was not a favoured sire initially as Sea the Stars was all the rage and got all the best covers. Obviously as CDA was gelded we will never know, but it is difficult to not state that if Mastercraftsman was raced as a 4 year old he would have won more Group 1's particularly as Sea the Stars was out of the way. Totally hypothethical I know , but worth considering. The Eclipse was won the following year by Twice Over, ffs.

TheMilkyPirate · 29-07-2019 10:39am

Excelebration was a far better horse than mastercraftsman that's not even a debate for me. And I'm not sure if I picked you up right there but are you really saying mastercraftsman was better than CDA???

tryfix · 30-07-2019 3:07am

For a bit of perspective on the value of the form surrounding Frankel's OR 140 status.

It's based on his Queen Anne demolition job which amounts to a 15 1/4 L beating of Excelebration's 7yo pacemaker Windsor Palace.

Windsor Palace's efforts as a pacemaker in G1 races is as follows

2008 Sussex Stakes beaten 24 1/2 L by Henry the navigator

2009 Prix Du Caftan pulled up behind Alandi

2011 Tattersalls Gold Cup beaten 25 L by So You Think

2011 Juddmonte International beaten 34 3/4 L by Twice Over

2012 Lockinge Stakes beaten 21 1/4 L by Frankel

2012 Queen Anne Stakes beaten 15 1/4 L by Frankel

2012 Juddmonte International beaten 45 L by Frankel

2013 Tattersalls Gold Cup beaten 11 L by Al Kazeem

2013 Prince Of Wales Stakes beaten 44 3/4 L by Al Kazeem

It's "strange" how Frankel's 15 1/4 L beating of this pacemaker football puts him a stone ahead of all the other horses on that list who kicked the same football around the same distance.

Morgans · 30-07-2019 7:21am

tryfix wrote: »

For a bit of perspective on the value of the form surrounding Frankel's OR 140 status.

It's based on his Queen Anne demolition job which amounts to a 15 1/4 L beating of Excelebration's 7yo pacemaker Windsor Palace.

Windsor Palace's efforts as a pacemaker in G1 races is as follows

2008 Sussex Stakes beaten 24 1/2 L by Henry the navigator

2009 Prix Du Caftan pulled up behind Alandi

2011 Tattersalls Gold Cup beaten 25 L by So You Think

2011 Juddmonte International beaten 34 3/4 L by Twice Over

2012 Lockinge Stakes beaten 21 1/4 L by Frankel

2012 Queen Anne Stakes beaten 15 1/4 L by Frankel

2012 Juddmonte International beaten 45 L by Frankel

2013 Tattersalls Gold Cup beaten 11 L by Al Kazeem

2013 Prince Of Wales Stakes beaten 44 3/4 L by Al Kazeem

It's "strange" how Frankel's 15 1/4 L beating of this pacemaker football puts him a stone ahead of all the other horses on that list who kicked the same football around the same distance.

While you think it makes most sense to rate the race around the pacemaker, I would doubt that it is why any ratings agency would arrive at that figure. They wouldn't have gotten that he was the pacemaker. Listing out Windsor Palaces form is irrelevant. I'm sure there are essays online on how the figure was arrived at. If it's through Windsor Palace fair enough. My guess is that proven group 1 winners (129-130 rated maybe) being beaten by 9l with daylight separating the second to the group 3 winners behind that. I accept that Frankel may be rated a pound or two too high but I can accept that excelebration ran his race in the QA and was unlucky to run into the best miler ever

Morgans · 30-07-2019 7:42am

Two other things - it is interesting in the discussion around enable since the weekend - how she is a superstar. Despite not coming out of the weekends race as the best horse. If it was a superstars performance then it was the same for crystal ocean and waldgeist. Very few grade 1 performers demolish other multiple grade 1 winners like Frankel did. He was raced as if he was a champion. I've never seen a guineas EVER run that way. Excelebration tried to go with him in the QA and finished drunk.

The form of Windsor palace you quote are at distances from 2m4f to a mile. As mentioned, it's easy to read form and come out with the worst possible interpretation to suit a hypothesis, you'd hope that the handicapper (at the very least) can see through that.

King George Ascot 2019

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