Green Party disintegration / split

KevRossi wrote: »

Hazel tried to run alongside Eamon Ryan in Dublin Bay South last year. He vetoed that as he feared it would split the vote and run the risk of none of them getting elected. She was very unhappy about that and has decided to forage her own path where and when she sees fit.

She has little or no hope of getting elected in DBS as an Independent. There are a fair few heavyweights in there at the moment and there aren't too many places she can go apart from that. The constituency next door has her husband to be in it, other seats south of the river have established GP TD's, many who are friendly with her and north of the river is Neasa Hourigan. Anywhere else is well outside her hunting ground.

Dun Laoghaire? Not too far from her current base, Ossian Smyth is the current Green TD, he was previously a councillor but I'm not sure he's well known enough to be considered established. As far as I recall he voted for ER in the leadership vote so she may not be too concerned with challenging him. Then there's the electorate; I'm sure she'd do well with a significant cohort of voters - She would presumably pick up some current Green voters and likely steal some of RBBs vote too.

KevRossi wrote: »

Hazel tried to run alongside Eamon Ryan in Dublin Bay South last year. He vetoed that as he feared it would split the vote and run the risk of none of them getting elected. She was very unhappy about that and has decided to forage her own path where and when she sees fit.

She has little or no hope of getting elected in DBS as an Independent. There are a fair few heavyweights in there at the moment and there aren't too many places she can go apart from that. The constituency next door has her husband to be in it, other seats south of the river have established GP TD's, many who are friendly with her and north of the river is Neasa Hourigan. Anywhere else is well outside her hunting ground.

So it looks like the Senate for a while. I doubt she'll get elected this time out, but it's all about building a profile over a few years and she'll no doubt have a proper stab at the Seanad next time out. Whether she has burned her bridges with the party is another question.

She hasn't been in the GP very many years, she had an accelerated path to the top and you only go that far that quick by stepping on other peoples toes. She's a bit too fond of shooting off on Twitter before informing herself of the facts; it gets a lot of Likes and Retweets, but it can have consequences as well.

There's something about her that isn't 100% GP, but it will be interesting to see if she continues to go places or to see if her star crashes and burns. She is keeping her name in the papers and that's one important step in politics.

If she ran as a SD candidate in DBS she would have a very strong foundation and I could see her winning a seat at some stage. Their current candidate is a nobody at the moment.

Another good article here today: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/dontmention-electriccars-and-read-karl-marx-ex-green-party-membersplan-new-party-40236979.html

Some very amusing highlights:

ARG believes it should “be slightly obnoxious/sassy at most times and de-emphasise politeness”. The document claims the Social Democrats will be “put out” by the launch of ARG and that the new party should be “a little bit edgier”. Plenary minutes from a meeting on December 6 show members being told “everyone go read Marx”.

A draft strategic plan says the party will take an “intersectional, anti-imperialist and anti-colonialist approach to all policy matters

These people are completely stuck in their Twitter bubble. Everything about them seems to be designed to win 'woke' college socialist party votes. Who might be very loud and prominent on the internet, but don't exist in the real world as voters in any significant number. The 'normal' Green party will much better off if they lose their crazier members to this splinter party.

As long as the far left remains a splintered mess, the better for the Country.

Nylon sweaters, bed wetters.

These are the 12 Green Party TDs:

1. Neasa Hourigan - Dublin Central
2. Patrick Costello - Dublin South-Central
3. Joe O'Brien - Dublin Fingal
4. Marc Ó Cathasaigh - Waterford
5. Brian Leddin - Limerick City
6. Steven Matthews - Wicklow
7. Francis Noel Duffy - Dublin South-West
8. Malcolm Noonan - Carlow–Kilkenny
9. Roderic O'Gorman - Dublin West
10. Catherine Martin - Dublin Rathdown
11. Ossian Smyth - Dún Laoghaire
12. Eamon Ryan - Dublin Bay South

How many, if any of them could leave to join the new Fluffy Headed Green party (or whatever they are called)?

N.B. The government coalition currently has a 4 seat majority


I could see Hourigan and Costello jumping ship. O'Brien, Martin & Duffy would be potential candidates if they weren't ministers / related to ministers.

Thinking...

I would think Neasa Hourigan has a huge fight to regain her seat next election. I can see Mary Lou bringing a mate with her next time. Pascal will keep his seat. So Green and SD fight out, and Gary Gannon is doing a good job. I bet on him to mop uploads of transfers.

So Greens have to be wondering about another wipeout come next election. Not many of the seats above are terribly safe - let alone second seats..

Yeah its clear enough Neasa Hourigan does what she wants, when she wants, not too bothered with Party policy, programmes for Government etc. How could a constituent trust her in that situation.

If she wants to act like an independent or an ARG wannabe, then thats how she should identify.

blanch152 wrote: »

Dublin West is unlikely to change for quite a while. The fortunes of the four parties with seats will go up and down, but that will only change the order in which they are elected. Donnelly doesn't have enough support for a second seat, running someone with him could risk splitting the vote and letting Coppinger back in.

Given Donnelly's track record he will probably be with a different party by then anyway

blanch152 wrote: »

Dublin West is unlikely to change for quite a while. The fortunes of the four parties with seats will go up and down, but that will only change the order in which they are elected. Donnelly doesn't have enough support for a second seat, running someone with him could risk splitting the vote and letting Coppinger back in.

Paul Donnelly got 28.6% of first preferences in the last election. He was at almost 150% of the quota on the first count alone... With any sort of increase in support for SF in the next election, and with a running mate bringing in some of their own support base, SF will be very likely to get a second seat in Dublin West at the Green's expense.

But even if SF don't run a second candidate (which is very unlikely) for some reason, even just the Green vote going down by 10% would see Ruth Coppinger taking that 4th seat.

That Dublin West Green seat isn't safe at all.

Edgware wrote: »

Paul Donnelly will hold his seat. Coppinger is a losing docket. The Greens are on self destruct and hopefully will be wiped out.

A green party is needed. I haven't ever voted for them but the pressure they put on bigger parties is good. I'm a big fan of recycling, energy saving lightbulbs, better housing insulation and energy etc. which are all things I see as win win. It's the Dublin or closer to home Raheen/Dooradoyle attitude of I'm all right Jack let's stop building much needed roads and bypasses crap that goes too far

L1011 wrote: »

Greens and SocDems will be losing seats all over if SF manage to handle transfers properly, as will some of the hard left and left/centrist/not obviously FFG bloodline independents. RBB is safe, nobody else is guaranteed.

Your biggest risk as a TD is your running mate, and there could be an occasional case of a running mate de-seating the sitting TD (ala Magidan to Shatter 2016) or horrendously splitting the vote and not getting in (this is not common, I'm not sure of a situation where you could be sure someone would have got in without the split - maybe some cases where #1 got in and #2/#3 split and kept each other out).

When you have no seat and run a sweeper to try ensure the lead gets in, the sweeper can win as happened to Labour in Waterford in 2011 - Conway as the rural Waterford sweeper got in because there is still to this day a Labour base in rural Waterford (Dungarvan and surrounds) and Ryan as the city candidate who 'should' have won, didn't.

However, as SF have a seat in most constituencies this is also unlikely to happen

Greens yes (but also to FG, remember the Greens got thr disaffected FG vote last time) but Soc Dems I'm not so sure. They've many young and competent candidates with a high profile. All bar one of their TDs (Jennifer Whitmore) has a very high profile. The only place where they may lose out would be Kildare North (if Murphy decides to retire). I would say Cairns in Cork South West will hold on, FG will get a seat there but it will be at FF's expense, Whitmore not sure but probably alright, don't see Gary Gannon losing (the extra SF here will wipe out Hourigan), Shorthall will have no trouble getting re-elected assuming she runs again. O'Callaghan could be vulnerable alright I suppose, if there's a SF surge there definitely won't be room in Dublin Bay North for both a Soc Dem and a Labour TD. Maybe he will stay on ahead of Ó Riordáin.

L1011 wrote: »

Cairns is gone if FF and FG sort out transfers. She got in on a fluke, nothing more.

I respectfully disagree with this analysis. Cairns came from a long way back on the first count (especially vs the combined FF vote) but her win was neither a fluke nor a transfer blunder by FF/FG.

FF's 2 candidates got just under a quota combined and the second candidate's elimination led to O'Sullivan's election with nothing left to transfer anywhere else.

FG's 2 candidates got 75% of a Quota between them and didn't get too many transfers from anyone else apart from an independent where 25% of their transfers went to FG.

The real problem for both of them was the presence of Michael Collins who was drawing from the same general centre/right pool of the electorate. He took just over a quota himself on the first round to get elected.

In contrast there was an open channel on the left for 1 candidate. There has always been potential for a left-wing candidate in West Cork given some of the communities down there. The combined vote of the Soc Dems, Greens, Sinn Fein and PBP was just over a quota. Those candidates transferred to each other efficiently leading to Cairns election.

There was no vote management strategy that FF & FG could have implemented that would have gotten them Cairn's seat given the first preference numbers that day.

Added to that, she has made the most of the opportunity and has been one of the most impressive debutants in this Dail. Impressive opposition TDs rarely lose their seats. She will get elected in a far more comfortable manner come the next election barring an unlikely scandal.


Back on Topic: The new party is meant to be launching in 2 days time. It will be interesting to see who is fronting it. I suspect Lorna Bogue will definitely be part of it, perhaps McHugh as well. The real question will be if they have managed to nab a Green TD.

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Back on Topic: The new party is meant to be launching in 2 days time. It will be interesting to see who is fronting it. I suspect Lorna Bogue will definitely be part of it, perhaps McHugh as well. The real question will be if they have managed to nab a Green TD.

Please please please please please let the launch in 2 days time......April 1st

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

Eamon Ryan delivered their best ever result last year and brought the party back from the dead, got the highest approval from the membership of his party out of all three parties in Government for going into Government, and look at what his 'reward' has been from a certain branch of his own party.

Well I suppose as the Greens themselves would say, they like to do things differently. It's like UK Labour, they'd rather be out of power if it means holding onto their principles rather than being in there and trying to implement the things they believe are worth fighting for. The mind truly boggles.

I don't think Ryan is perfect, but never understood why people were so opposed to them going into power with FF/FG.

The alternative was FF/FG and right wing Indy's ,,,,at least in power you can try to achieve some of your goals because the alternative was moaning on twitter while noted left wingers such as Lowry and Healy Raes call the shots.

I don't think their is no any harm in a new Left Wing party, but initial reports make it sound like a student protest party who are going to chase retweets and little more.

Interesting chat with Mrs Vagga last night [We are in Dublin Central] - that she would vote for Hourigan as an independent or as part of another party [as Mrs Vagga agree's with a lot of the things Hourigan has taken a stand on, and happy Hourigan is a principled person]...but Mrs Vagga is not voting Green party again [has voted green last 3 or 4 elections]. I think that kinda opinion is not just hers alone.

ie: Hourigan runs as an independent and splits the vote and Gary Gannon and Sinn Fein candidate #2 do a little dance