Is there a future for Fianna Fail in it's current form?

Freiheit · 27-02-2011 7:50pm #1

An ageing cohort of T.D.'s, an apparently grey vote,could Fianna Fail become extinct? Could they be recycled into a new entity,similar to the way Cumann na Gaedhal became Fine Gael?. I think this could happen because I'm not sure if they will ever loose their association with the IMF?. If not their brand could be indelibly stained.

Do others here think they will ever be forgiven for the economic collapse and therefore become electable on the basis of new policy and a new generation of tds? Or will they be toxic regardless of future manifesto?

How would they be received in Northern Ireland?

Alles gutes
F

recedite · 28-03-2011 11:11pm

Another 3 or 4 years of cuts according to the IMF plan.
FG & Labour will soon be hated as much as FF & Greens, but who will the voters turn to next? Forgive FF and forget how they destroyed the economy?
A good time for someone to start a new political party IMO.

PeterIanStaker · 29-03-2011 12:42am

The 20 seats they got in the GE were 20 too many. There are still people dense enough to vote for them.

I'd love to see them go the way of the Irish Parlimentary Party and a new non - Civil War party mushroom up in their absence (after all, they did leave behind plenty of fertiliser!)

Levity aside though, this country is at least two generations away from discarding Civil War politics in any meaningful way and adopting a "proper" Left/Right system if it ever does. Could wind up like the States yet where you'd have moderates and extremes who have more in common with the so called opposition than those in their own party.

PatsytheNazi · 29-03-2011 12:20pm

Appearently the FF party are in a debt of €3 million. One of Labour's big demands is the outlawing of business donations. So with no more Galway tents and 'donations' in brown paper bags etc, their monetary survival looks poor

Regardless of what FG/Labour do, FF will be out of govt certainly for another election which would be 9/10 years along with this term. Can you see the cute hoors of FF happily sitting on the opposition benches for all that time. Of course not. I foresee a break away to FF Nua or whatever and then to probably join FG in some sort of coalition 2 elections away and the old FF go the way of the dinosaurs. The sooner the better.

caesarthechimp · 29-03-2011 9:28pm

PatsytheNazi wrote: »

I foresee a break away to FF Nua or whatever and then to probably join FG in some sort of coalition 2 elections away and the old FF go the way of the dinosaurs.

+1

Seth Brundle · 29-03-2011 9:31pm

Is there a future for Fianna Fail in it's current form?

Please please please be "Not in any form"

However, with a 20% vote in the last election after they efefctively bankrupted the country, I think one in five of us still happily accept corruption and cronyism. Give FG a year and more people will move back!

PeterIanStaker · 29-03-2011 10:01pm

kbannon wrote: »

Give FG a year and more people will move back!

^
That's the FF strategy summed up in a sentence, but here it is:

Ride the country into a mess that Thor/Odin/Chuck Norris couldn't fix.
Leave the opposition to deal with it.
Public gets angry at the new govt's attempts to clean up the mess that FF made. Public forgets who made said mess.
Public votes FF back in again.

Repeat steps 1 -4 decade after decade after decade . . . . . . .

Godge · 29-03-2011 10:19pm

This is a very interesting question. There are a number of way things could go.

FF demise: Brian Lenihan's health problems take their toll and he has to resign/take a back seat. Say one other older FF TD has similar problems. Someone smart and yound takes a jump on a promise to Labour or FG. In those circumstances, FF could become a rural party led by Dev Og or someone similar and get 10 -15 seats in every election. Could be their best route back to govt. as a smaller party in coalition with FG or Labour. If not, further decline.

FF recovery: Martin organises the grassroots. Hard work at the local elections produces some decent general election candidates. One candidate in each urban constituency (Dublin, Waterford, Cork, Limerick, Galway, Leinster commuter) and others where two is impossible (Kerry, Donegal etc) Run two in selected constituencies (Cork SC, Laois Offaly, Wexford, Carlow/Kilkenny). Aim to get to 40 seats. May hold balance of power. If not, happy to spend five more years in opposition, building up Oireachtas experience of new TDs before launching attempt to get up above 50 and become the natural party of government again.

I think both of those scenarios represent the extremes of achievement.

later12 · 29-03-2011 10:21pm

PeterIanStaker wrote: »

^
That's the FF strategy summed up in a sentence, but here it is:
Ride the country into a mess that Thor/Odin/Chuck Norris couldn't fix.

Leave the opposition to deal with it.

Public gets angry at the new govt's attempts to clean up the mess that FF made. Public forgets who made said mess.

Public votes FF back in again.

Repeat steps 1 -4 decade after decade after decade . . . . . . .

This is a semi-popular myth that appears to have made its way into the minds of hearts of people who have almost no grasp of Irish history or more particularly of Irish economic history (which is in itself startling, because you could write the thing on an A4 page).

This is not the course that Irish economic history has taken. Rather, the reality has tended to be Fianna Fail governments cleaning up after preceeding inept Fianna Fail governments. Fine examples would be Lemass cleaning up after De Valera's last stagnant administration and Haughey cleaning up on his previous terms, with Albert Reynolds carrying that on. Fine Gael simply have not been in power long enough to have contributed enough to the failures nor the successes of the state's economic past, nor to its present. Arguably they did attempt to clean up after FF initially in the 1980s, but many of the failures of their five years on government were their own, and arguably also it was Fianna fail who cleaned up after Fine Gael in 1987 because Fine Gael doubled the national debt and it was Haughey's administration who had to implement the cutbacks!

But no, your version is much simpler and more pleasant to believe.

later12 · 29-03-2011 10:37pm

Freiheit wrote: »

An ageing cohort of T.D.'s, an apparently grey vote,could Fianna Fail become extinct? Could they be recycled into a new entity,similar to the way Cumann na Gaedhal became Fine Gael?. I think this could happen because I'm not sure if they will ever loose their association with the IMF?. If not their brand could be indelibly stained.

It depends on how FF emerge over the next 1-2 years, but the party is lucky in that there are no local elections until 2014, by which time, after three very difficult budgets, the inevitable disillusion with Fine Gael and their version of medicine ought be well crystallised. That will be the first electoral yardstick of the FF recovery, but opinion polls will give us a strong indication well before that.

Fianna Fail performed better in the 2011 General election than many people predicted, and performed much better than some of the opinion polls predicted - most notably even the RTE exit poll as people ought to recall. The FF leader was the most popular candidate for Taoiseach despite being the leader of a party which caused the greatest sovereign and financial calamity since the creation of the Free State. So my guess is:

Recovery? Probably. When? After three Fine Gael budgets.

PeterIanStaker · 29-03-2011 10:45pm

later10 wrote: »

This is a semi-popular myth that appears to have made its way into the minds of hearts of people who have almost no grasp of Irish history or more particularly of Irish economic history (which is in itself startling, because you could write the thing on an A4 page).

This is not the course that Irish economic history has taken. Rather, the reality has tended to be Fianna Fail governments cleaning up after preceeding inept Fianna Fail governments. Fine examples would be Lemass cleaning up after De Valera's last stagnant administration and Haughey cleaning up on his previous terms, with Albert Reynolds carrying that on. Fine Gael simply have not been in power long enough to have contributed enough to the failures nor the successes of the state's economic past, nor to its present. Arguably they did attempt to clean up after FF initially in the 1980s, but many of the failures of their five years on government were their own, and arguably also it was Fianna fail who cleaned up after Fine Gael in 1987 because Fine Gael doubled the national debt and it was Haughey's administration who had to implement the cutbacks!

But no, your version is much simpler and more pleasant to believe.

Remind me again, what party were in govt the last 14 years, and have the distinction of both presiding over a boom and also being forced to calling the IMF, due to their own sheer hubris?

Modern FF are not good for Ireland. Lemass had integrity, but the rot set in with the likes of Haughey, Lenihan Sr, Burke et al. A rogues gallery if there ever was one.

The modern party isn't worth a toss, neither are FG or SF or the watered down thing that calls itself Labour, although the Rainbow coalition laid the foundation for the CT in the 90's.

Now though, the default is somewhere between weeks and months away, thanks to the 30th Dail's ineptitude. Will a FF - led 32nd Dail really improve the situation?

later12 · 29-03-2011 10:49pm

PeterIanStaker wrote: »

Remind me again, who were in govt the last 14 years and presided over an artificial boom and also were forced to call in the IMF?

Remind you again? was this not clear enough?

Later10 wrote:

Fine Gael simply have not been in power long enough to have contributed enough to the failures nor the successes of the state's economic past, nor to its present.

I'm simply pointing out to you that the 'trend' that you indicated is a total invention. No such economic trend exists. FG are cleaning up after this FF mess, indeed, but it has usually been FF cleaning up after themselves, where necessary, and at least once notably after FG, in the past.

PeterIanStaker · 29-03-2011 10:49pm

Freiheit wrote: »

How would they be received in Northern Ireland?

Hopefully kneecapped?

PeterIanStaker · 29-03-2011 10:52pm

later10 wrote: »

Remind you again? was this not clear enough?

I'm simply pointing out to you that the 'trend' that you indicated is a total invention. No such economic trend exists.

Its hard to set trends in the absence of economic policy.

Oh wait sorry FF had an economic policy:

"jus' trow moore munny at it dere Brian an' it'll be grand" *orders another pint*

Amhran Nua · 30-03-2011 11:21am

I think if FF had lost the 2007 elections, they might have stood a chance of making a comeback. The disastrous decisions made since then as Cowen slurped and dozed his way through his term in office (and as a taxpayer I'd like a refund after that performance) have sealed their fate.

The environment has changed, you see. A lot of people voted for the first time in the last election with one aim in mind, to wipe out FF and the Greens. These people are younger, better educated, and better connected than any previous voting bloc, and I would say that the internet has had a significant effect on that. And slick PR with party allegiances for their own sake won't work here - performance and initiative are what count. The IMF being called in is an international disgrace, and these voters will be a long time forgetting that, and this is after we finish paying for FF failures in a couple of decades.

It represents an interesting emergent phenomenon, where a lot of voices were heard and had a real effect, leading possibly to a reduction in voter apathy and disillusionment. Genuinely I think its gone too far this time, there will be no coming back for FF.

Euroland · 30-03-2011 11:32am

Freiheit wrote: »

Is there a future for Fianna Fail in it's current form?
F

No, in any form

Euroland · 30-03-2011 11:33am

recedite wrote: »

Another 3 or 4 years of cuts according to the IMF plan.
FG & Labour will soon be hated as much as FF & Greens, but who will the voters turn to next? Forgive FF and forget how they destroyed the economy?
A good time for someone to start a new political party IMO.

+100%, Agree

ednwireland · 30-03-2011 4:53pm

recedite wrote: »

Another 3 or 4 years of cuts according to the IMF plan.
FG & Labour will soon be hated as much as FF & Greens, but who will the voters turn to next? Forgive FF and forget how they destroyed the economy?
A good time for someone to start a new political party IMO.

FG and labour will hated as much as FF be for trying to sort out the FF, PD's, Independants, green mess hmmmm
honestly i can see FF rising from the ashes fairly quickly as people forget and focus on the mess that the current gov are faced with trying to sort out(depressing a thought as that is)

:rolleyes:

Pauleta · 30-03-2011 11:27pm

The thing about Fianna Fail is other than the obvious of years gone by they have no real political agenda bar trying to get into power, appeal to the masses and stay in power. There is no political ideology. They are about as right wing as Ryan Giggs. They are extremely liberal on crime, hesitant on immigration, a money for all social welfare sytem, they have been easy on the unions and they have nationalised all the banks. WTF sort of center right party is that. Bertie even described himself as a socialist. They need a leader who is strong in what he/she believes rather than a leader who is trying to get into power. Maybe Michael Martin is that person, time will tell but i cant see it happening.

Shea O'Meara · 31-03-2011 2:38am

PeterIanStaker wrote: »

Modern FF are not good for Ireland. Lemass had integrity, but the rot set in with the likes of Haughey, Lenihan Sr, Burke et al. A rogues gallery if there ever was one.

The rot was introduced at the party's inception. DeValera was a fraudulant anti-Irish thief. A proven historical fact.
(see Irish Press shares)

They were no more than chancers, at best snake oil salesmen.
They even tried to blame the people they represented as the walls began to fall down around them, 'We got greedy buying second homes etc....'.
Well to put that to bed;

The losses in Allied Irish Bank (AIB), Bank of Ireland, Irish Life and Permanent (IL&P) and the EBS building society will be set out as the new coalition Government attempts to finally measure the debt mountain.

Most of the loan losses caused by reckless lending to now bankrupt property developers. More than 44,000, or 5.7%, of homeowners are at least three months behind with their mortgages - valued at a €8.6bn.
http://news.eircom.net/breakingnews/19402895/

And even that 5.7% may be genuine people who lost jobs etc.

Basically, they may well be back. I would expect so, but not in the strength of the past as the last of the civil war voters pop their cloggs, leaving only inbred, 'I'm a Fianna Fail man!' fools and greasy backroom businessmen to wave the flag.

PeterIanStaker · 31-03-2011 5:41pm

Shea O'Meara wrote: »

The rot was introduced at the party's inception. DeValera was a fraudulant anti-Irish thief. A proven historical fact.

I meant the "rot" in a modern context that laid the foundation for the recessions in the 70's & 80's as well as this current one. I'm well aware that Dev was a filthy snake who would have f*cked over his own grandmother, as well as being John Charles McQuaid's unquestioning lapdog.

ISAW · 01-04-2011 2:15pm

PeterIanStaker wrote: »

The 20 seats they got in the GE were 20 too many. There are still people dense enough to vote for them.

That is only saying you never supported FF and hold anyone who did in contempt. Given your admitted bias what objective evidence have you to support you points?

I'd love to see them go the way of the Irish Parlimentary Party and a new non - Civil War party mushroom up in their absence

So you think the violence of SF was preferable to the constitutional route of the IPP?
Are you also for getting rid of FG who are also a "Civil War Party"?

Levity aside though, this country is at least two generations away from discarding Civil War politics in any meaningful way and adopting a "proper" Left/Right system if it ever does.

so we should adopt your personal bias against the will of the people and adopt EU style politics rather than our own? The EU are "proper" what with their abortion laws and legal prostitution and drugs I suppose you think we should emulate?

Could wind up like the States yet where you'd have moderates and extremes who have more in common with the so called opposition than those in their own party.

They are called "Authoritarians" i believe. You know? The sort of people that disregard what others think and inflict their own bias on others?

ISAW · 01-04-2011 2:16pm

Euroland wrote: »

No, in any form

Just what is it about FF ...say pre 1970 which you find so objectionable and different to Lab or FG?

phantom_lord · 01-04-2011 4:04pm

PatsytheNazi wrote: »

Appearently the FF party are in a debt of €3 million.

Biggest issue for the survival of the party imo.

Inverse to the power of one! · 02-04-2011 12:11pm

There was an article lately in Pheonix about Martin promoting some biddy who has no experience because she was in the right clique. The article went on say this showed FF under Martin as unrepentant, and I tend to agree. Hopefully their debts will wipe them out.

Out with the old....in with the new?

So a new political party for when we get sick of FG and the Laborites......who'll step up?

PatsytheNazi · 02-04-2011 1:56pm

phantom_lord wrote: »

Biggest issue for the survival of the party imo.

Glad someone else isn't ignoring this elephant in the room of FF's in debt to about €3 million :eek:. Now like I said, I forsee Labour and a reluctant FG outlawing corporate donations. Not that this debt will unfortunately not be the final blow for FF, but it's definetly going to be a big factor if they are to survive.

Sierra Oscar · 02-04-2011 2:10pm

I think people are possibly putting too much emphasise on debt. Political parties often just roll-over debt until they are in a position to pay it off. Also, if there is serious issues they often just write off some of the debt entirely.

This is a bit simplistic, but insightful all the same - in 2006 the Conservative Party was over £35 million in debt and they are now leading the UK government. The Labour Party in the UK are currently in £20 million in debt but if there was an election tomorrow they would win a landslide victory based on opinion polls.

PatsytheNazi · 02-04-2011 2:15pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I think people are possibly putting too much emphasise on debt. Political parties often just roll-over debt until they are in a position to pay it off. Also, if there is serious issues they often just write off some of the debt entirely.

This is a bit simplistic, but insightful all the same - in 2006 the Conservative Party was over £35 million in debt and they are now leading the UK government. The Labour Party in the UK are currently in £20 million in debt but if there was an election tomorrow they would win a landslide victory based on opinion polls.

A bit off topic but that's gas - Conservative Party was over £35 million in debt.....Labour Party in the UK are currently in £20 million in debt. Can you imagine the kind of money that the Democrats and Republicans are dealing with in the States :eek:

I was reading the book Scandal Nation and some people say that FF's total cronyism with big business in Ireland started in the early 60's with a fund raising organisation called TACA - heading by one CJ Haughey. Need I say anything more.

later12 · 02-04-2011 2:26pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Political parties often just roll-over debt until they are in a position to pay it off. Also, if there is serious issues they often just write off some of the debt entirely.

Firstly, who are 'they'?

Secondly, the trouble with rolling over a debt is that it might not be possible in worsening circumstances. Although I do believe FF has a future, presently one would probably question the mental health of an individual who attempted to actually give any significant donation to the party. The party is small and may never rule Ireland again, the task ahead of it seems, at times, too great; this creates a negative feedback loop where donations dry up and that in turn diminishes the party. The debt issue is actually a major one.

This is a bit simplistic, but insightful all the same - in 2006 the Conservative Party was over £35 million in debt and they are now leading the UK government. The Labour Party in the UK are currently in £20 million in debt but if there was an election tomorrow they would win a landslide victory based on opinion polls.

But that's exactly the point, the fact that both parties have reasonable grounds to expect future victories is reason enough for financial confidence in them. Fianna Fail does not and cannot reasonably make such assumptions.

Fianna Fail is now a party with a large party's debt and a small party's prospect of electoral success. That is a problem.

Sierra Oscar · 02-04-2011 2:33pm

later10 wrote: »

Firstly, who are 'they'?

Secondly, the trouble with rolling over a debt is that it might not be possible in worsening circumstances. Although I do believe FF has a future, presently one would probably question the mental health of an individual who attempted to actually give any significant donation to the party. The party is small and may never rule Ireland again, the task ahead of it seems, at times, too great; this creates a negative feedback loop where donations dry up and that in turn diminishes the party. The debt issue is actually a major one.

But that's exactly the point, the fact that both parties have reasonable grounds to expect future victories is reason enough for financial confidence in them. Fianna Fail does not and cannot reasonably make such assumptions.

Fianna Fail is now a party with a large party's debt and a small party's prospect of electoral success. That is a problem.

"They" is FF HQ. The electoral prospects will not be evident until we get some opinion polls in 6-12 months time. If FF start to rise in the polls than there will be little difficulty with funding - people back a party which they see as having a chance of being in government down the line. Your making a lot of assumptions when you assume FF will never be in government again and it is silly to be making such assumptions when we have not even had one opinion poll post election.

The debt is an issue, but not the biggest issue. The largest issue is actually getting the organisation at local level revitalised. HQ do not actually necessarily have to have a huge amount of money to do this (local cumanns do a lot of fund-raising for themselves - always have and always will).

Clareboy · 02-04-2011 2:40pm

The last Fianna Fail government must be punished for the irreparable damage that they have done to our country and I don't mean losing an election. The former Fianna Fail ministers cannot be allowed to walk away with millions of Euros in severance packages and pensions. First of all, the money in not there! I just don't know how those people can go into their beds at night and close their eyes after what they have done to our country. They have destroyed our nation and I curse them for it! I am calling on all former Fianna Fail ministers to give up those huge lump sum payments and pensions. They don't need them anyway. If they refuse, I suggest that the people protest at the homes and businesses of those ministers until they do. Enough is enough! The wrongdoers must be punished!

Is there a future for Fianna Fail in it's current form?

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