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So a Memestock was my first Stock. What Now?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    I think gold is a bit misunderstood as an hedge against inflation. More accurately it is rather an hedge against currency debasement and negative real rates (inflation is strongly related to those two things but not the same thing).

    A more pure play hedge against inflation would rather be commodities as an asset class.

    TIPS are of course designed for this as well, but the problem with them is that TIPS price calculation relies on inflation figures (CPI and the likes) which are produced by governments which are regularly changing the calculation rules of those metrics to understate inflation. There is a bit of a conflict of interests here as governments which have an interest in TIPS valuations remaining low are also the entity providing the data which is influencing that valuation.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,364 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    Well he is saying that it is not the best hedge against inflation, he must think there is some worth in it for the reasons you say, hence nearly 2% of the portfolio is in it (2% is the usual max of any position). PNL for example would hold a lot more gold.

    His comments on Bitcoin were interesting, I have heard most of the arguments before (Bitcoin scares me, seems a gamble - I'm not averse to a flutter, but as an investment over 20 years it is far too risky for me) but the ESG one is new to me, and raises a very good point.

    The link to the report references is in the Podcast hosts tweet below, it's interesting!

    https://twitter.com/MerrynSW/status/1383343772386291720
    Interesting article. One thing to be aware of tho is that he's a fund manager managing other people's money, as they say on the last page "At the heart of our investment principle is preserving client capital". That's a little different to my approach of taking calculated risks to grow my capital.

    I do a bit of portfolio management at work (or rather I watch others do it), the most any serious people are doing is 2/3% of their portfolios into Bitcoin. If it goes tits up, so be it, if it doubles, they're delighted.

    I've heard the ESG argument before alright. its definitely an issue, but every currency/resource/equity has their issues on that front.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Shedite27 wrote: »
    Interesting article. One thing to be aware of tho is that he's a fund manager managing other people's money, as they say on the last page "At the heart of our investment principle is preserving client capital". That's a little different to my approach of taking calculated risks to grow my capital.

    I do a bit of portfolio management at work (or rather I watch others do it), the most any serious people are doing is 2/3% of their portfolios into Bitcoin. If it goes tits up, so be it, if it doubles, they're delighted.

    I've heard the ESG argument before alright. its definitely an issue, but every currency/resource/equity has their issues on that front.
    That kind of exposure, and mentality, to bitcoin is basically speculation. Which is fair enough (I'm half thinking of tossing spare change into bitcoin on Revolut) but it is not investing. How do you calculate the risk with Bitcoin?

    That said, I do have a small exposure to bitcoin through Ruffer (which certainly helped them over the past year).

    On the ESG, it would seem to me to be fair severe with Bitcoin. Server farms employ (virtually) no one, and Bitcoin has no practical application or inherent value. Gold for example, has loads of practical uses, and employs tons of people.

    That said, I am not a slave to ESG considerations. I think it is a very bad idea to divest from fossil fuels, for example. Coal mines are not going to close overnight, they are still needed. Surely we want the most environmentally conscious people running these, rather than essentially forcing them to be sold off to people who are actively seeking out these things because they do not care, or deny climate realities?


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,364 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    That kind of exposure, and mentality, to bitcoin is basically speculation. Which is fair enough (I'm half thinking of tossing spare change into bitcoin on Revolut) but it is not investing. How do you calculate the risk with Bitcoin?

    That said, I do have a small exposure to bitcoin through Ruffer (which certainly helped them over the past year).

    On the ESG, it would seem to me to be fair severe with Bitcoin. Server farms employ (virtually) no one, and Bitcoin has no practical application or inherent value. Gold for example, has loads of practical uses, and employs tons of people.

    That said, I am not a slave to ESG considerations. I think it is a very bad idea to divest from fossil fuels, for example. Coal mines are not going to close overnight, they are still needed. Surely we want the most environmentally conscious people running these, rather than essentially forcing them to be sold off to people who are actively seeking out these things because they do not care, or deny climate realities?
    Bitcoin is undoubtedly the riskiest asset (definitely could go to zero), but the returns are potentially huge too. There's lots of models for how this goes higher, based on institutional money, and how much bitcoin is available (of the 21m, i'd say half is lost and another 1/4 never moves). People need to balance what they can afford to lose, with what they can potentially win. 2% is the most I'd do with other peoples money.

    Gold doesn't do much really, we put it in rings because people says it looks nice, but that could change overnight. it's a nightmare to store and move, does a little bit in engines, but not much else. I'm sure those gold mines aren't very environmentally friendly either. And then there's the whole "blood diamond" issue".

    There's no right and wrong answer to any of this, but pros and cons to all of them.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Shedite27 wrote: »
    Bitcoin is undoubtedly the riskiest asset (definitely could go to zero), but the returns are potentially huge too. There's lots of models for how this goes higher, based on institutional money, and how much bitcoin is available (of the 21m, i'd say half is lost and another 1/4 never moves). People need to balance what they can afford to lose, with what they can potentially win. 2% is the most I'd do with other peoples money.

    Gold doesn't do much really, we put it in rings because people says it looks nice, but that could change overnight. it's a nightmare to store and move, does a little bit in engines, but not much else. I'm sure those gold mines aren't very environmentally friendly either. And then there's the whole "blood diamond" issue".

    There's no right and wrong answer to any of this, but pros and cons to all of them.
    Gold is also used in loads of electronics... I dunno at least it can be made into something that looks nice !

    How do you buy your bitcoin, any opinion on Revolut? I have one of those spare change vaults on the go, might do no harm to throw 20 quid every now and again into bitcoin, with the mentality of it being a bet, rather than an investment.


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Right, so today marks the end of the first full month of my portfolio. In the hope that it might be of interest/help to some I'll give an update below, with some lessons learned etc. Just to recap, I made my first purchase of stocks on 17 March, and two further purchases before the end of March to set up my initial nine holdings, which are to be topped up as time goes by. During April I made three stock purchases on the 19th of Temple Bar, Ruffer and Monks (which almost immediately declined ha!). It will be a different three exactly 4 weeks later, and so on, so basically each stock will get topped up once a quarter (or thereabouts) by the same amount.

    The breakdown of my holdings at the end of April is as follows:
    Breakdown-of-Holdings.jpg
    The first lesson I learned is that it was probably a bad (expensive) idea to buy all 9 stocks with such low sums straight straight away. Basically, the commission for a UK stock is £1 plus the stamp duty which set me back straight off the bat by over 1% on each stock. The last two weeks in March were also not amazing for my stocks, but basically I was down because of the commission and tax. The following chart covers the 15th to the end of March:

    Overall-Mar-15-to-end-March.jpg

    It was not so bad at all for April because some of my stocks did ok and as I only made three individual stock purchases (rather than 11 as in March) the fees were not bad and did not cripple me as much as before. The following chart covers April, as of COB today:

    April-Performance-Euro.jpg

    So the performance for half of March and all of April works out at as below, giving an overall portfolio performance for the entire period of -1.17% (This and all % figures are True Time Weighted Rates of Return).
    Overall-performance-Mar-15-to-end-of-April.jpg
    EUR-Performance-Figures.jpg

    My takeaway from this is that April was a good month which I am very happy with, but that the commission off the bat was fairly hefty because my sums were so low. As time goes on the impact of the commission each month (minimum of $9.99, which with only 3 purchases is also the effective maximum) should get further diluted as the sums involved grow. Still a pain though, it would have been much better if T212 were set up and allowing new customers, and they also allowed you to transfer to another broker. The ideal would have been to trade "commission free" up to about 20k and then transfer to a "proper" broker like IBKR at that stage. But not much I can do about that, IBKR were the only show in town really. If I were doing it again it may have been a better idea not to buy all 9 stocks at once, but to have bought a smaller number of stocks but a greater amount of each, so percentage wise the commission would have been less.

    In terms of stock performance, Berkshire and PCT have done really well, as has AGT. Temple Bar has lagged a bit. But 6 weeks is nothing so no judgements on anything can be made. The only thing I would add, is that there is a possibility that Berkshire could become significantly overvalued. For example, if Buffet turns around at the shareholders meeting and says that he will stop doing buybacks because the stock is overvalued (unlikely) or it seems that Berkshire is just trading away beyond what it is worth, I will stop buying it at that level, and instead invest in JP Morgan American Investment Trust until such time as thinking around the valuation of Berkshire changes. However, I don't see this happening anytime soon.

    Someone had asked about the impact of currency. Each of the charts, and the figures etc. above are adjusted to Euro. However, if looked at in GBP (which all my stocks except Berkshire trade in) my portfolio is actually up, in the black, by 0.24%. However, I will stick with using Euro as my base currency even if performance looks better in other currencies :) But for interests sake, GBP monthly performance figures are below:

    GBP-Performance-Figures.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,474 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    The work undertaken on GME and AMC by the lunatics on Reddit is very interesting.
    With GME in particular, not only is much of the research over on r/Superstonk very compelling, the research is being externally reviewed and confirmed by well known experts who are also engaging with the community on Reddit and Twitter.

    I threw money at both AMC and GME in late Jan and early Feb and on GME in particular I bought more at multiple times to average down my GME bep from 360 to well below half of that.
    Similar with AMC, my plan is to let it ride to whatever the peak is and sell on the way down.
    The naked shorts and the apparent wash trading to allow retail pressure on pricing to be mitigated has become quite apparent in the price action on limiting of certain fibre feeds since Monday has been very, very apparent.

    The price moves this week, well they may be coincidental and my own trust in the current market condition could be driven by confirmation bias and coincidence.
    So don't trust my assessment, that said.
    If we do have any "apes" in here?
    Well fúcking done lads!
    There seems to be quite a few Irish lads on the Reddit sub, and the Bloomberg terminal info shows a surprisingly high number of shares owned here.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    banie01 wrote: »
    The work undertaken on GME and AMC by the lunatics on Reddit is very interesting.
    With GME in particular, not only is much of the research over on r/Superstonk very compelling, the research is being externally reviewed and confirmed by well known experts who are also engaging with the community on Reddit and Twitter.

    I threw money at both AMC and GME in late Jan and early Feb and on GME in particular I bought more at multiple times to average down my GME bep from 360 to well below half of that.
    Similar with AMC, my plan is to let it ride to whatever the peak is and sell on the way down.
    The naked shorts and the apparent wash trading to allow retail pressure on pricing to be mitigated has become quite apparent in the price action on limiting of certain fibre feeds since Monday has been very, very apparent.

    The price moves this week, well they may be coincidental and my own trust in the current market condition could be driven by confirmation bias and coincidence.
    So don't trust my assessment, that said.
    If we do have any "apes" in here?
    Well fúcking done lads!
    There seems to be quite a few Irish lads on the Reddit sub, and the Bloomberg terminal info shows a surprisingly high number of shares owned here.
    I still have half a GME share, will sell once it is in profit which it nearly is :) Can't wait for the book on GME


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,474 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    I still have half a GME share, will sell once it is in profit which it nearly is :) Can't wait for the book on GME

    I have a bit more ;)
    And I'm nicely in profit but I'm really more curious to see the peak and when the dust settles?
    To see what actual impact DFV and Reddit in general had on the markets via WSB, WSBelite, GME, Am stock and Superstonk sub-reddits had on the market.

    Was it that they created the hype through FOMO?
    Or was it that the thesis DFV advanced re: the short exposure and naked selling was true and the banding of retail investors into cornering the float drove a collapse of supply and price increase, by removing the shortable float.

    It's fascinating, and yes I could just "watch" but fúck it!
    I had some cash and I do like a bit of risk ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 403 ✭✭HGVRHKYY


    Since I'm big into crypto for years, I'm beyond comfortable with volatility and speculation, so I bought some GME as well not too long ago around $160-180, unfortunately one of those was bought through Revolut which I think may be dodgy if the MOASS does actually play out, because didn't they sell people's shares automatically or cease trading the last time it rallied?

    One thing that always struck me as odd is how some people, not talking specifically about here, is the way some people seem really surprised about the fact that very detailed and insightful DD can be found on forums like r/WSB and r/Superstonk. Is there a lot of memes and bull**** there? Yeah, but in this day and age I think anyone who's arrogant enough to dismiss the possibility of finding great information and help through online communities like that, and even here on boards, deserves to miss out. Anyone who'd bother spending much time on places like that are bound to have at least some knowledge and experience, and even if you only end up laughing at some ridiculous losses it can be interesting


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,474 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    HGVRHKYY wrote: »
    One thing that always struck me as odd is how some people, not talking specifically about here, is the way some people seem really surprised about the fact that very detailed and insightful DD can be found on forums like r/WSB and r/Superstonk.

    I think part of it is borne out of the long history of stock feeds, pricing data and analytics being behind paywalls and even terminal access being pricey.
    It fostered a belief that a lot of the data needed to formulate strategy and to actually be contrarian successfully relied on huge money spent for data streams.

    The rise of the Reddit hivemind really challenges those notions and raises questions regarding market operation that really could have enormous impact.
    1 lad over there has even built a free-ware Bloomberg alternative.
    To many this might seem a bit of a gimmick, but it's a step towards market democratisation.


    https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mx2cjh/move_over_bloomberg_terminal_here_comes_gamestonk/
    https://github.com/GamestonkTerminal/GamestonkTerminal

    Certain quarters are complaining about the gamification of the markets?
    It's been a game since day 1, strategy and implementation matter.
    Now tho, they are playing that game with Gamers.
    A group of people who are used to cooperation, strategizing and waiting as a bloody hobby!
    That they now have a platform that they can communicate on, bounce ideas off good and bad and even though there is a high degree of confirmation bias?
    Group-think is nearly always avoided because everyone interested can throw out an opinion.

    It's as close as I ever seen presently to a validation of the "wisdom of crowds" theory in actual real-time.
    There may well be a crossover between the wisdom and outright mania at some point though.

    Is it an organic price rise as a result of DFV's thesis being valid and the support of retail buyers controlling the float?
    Or is it a mass delusion with the price rise driven by retail investors refusing to sell?

    If there are actually naked shorts that cannot cover?
    This is going to be an institutional crisis for the SEC and US markets.
    If DFV is wrong?

    Well retail will lose money but the market is more "rational" than the thesis held and immediate change isn't as required.

    Either way?
    I'm loving it!
    I originally started investing in equities back in @2010 and then went fully over to Crypto in 2016.
    Some Boeing late in 2020 and lots of AMC and GME buys since January are my 1st time back in equities in 5yrs.
    The volatility is no skin off a crypto old timers nose ;)
    Imagine it would be chaos for an equity investor to cope with.


  • Registered Users Posts: 598 ✭✭✭pioneerpro


    banie01 wrote: »
    If we do have any "apes" in here?
    Well fúcking done lads!

    Hedging growth-tech and pre-LOI SPACs with Memes and DOGE in Q1/Q2. It's been a funny year.

    image.png
    There seems to be quite a few Irish lads on the Reddit sub, and the Bloomberg terminal info shows a surprisingly high number of shares owned here.

    Anecdotally I'd know over 100k gone into the stocks from chatting to people in South Dublin alone. There's a few hanging around Discord too, but primarily the ****ty ones like WSB and Atlas. The smaller (better) groups tend not to have Europoors.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    banie01 wrote: »
    ...

    That they now have a platform that they can communicate on, bounce ideas off good and bad and even though there is a high degree of confirmation bias?
    Group-think is nearly always avoided because everyone interested can throw out an opinion.

    ...

    This jumped out at me. Try give a differing opinion on WSB and see where that gets you. Reddit in general has a problem where rabid fans shut down any opposing views. Once any sub-reddit gets to a certain size, group think takes over. WSB is no different and suffers badly suffers from this. Something like boards is far, far better suited to nuanced discussion. You literally get automatically shadow-banned on reddit if your comments get downvoted too quickly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,474 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    This jumped out at me. Try give a differing opinion on WSB and see where that gets you. Reddit in general has a problem where rabid fans shut down any opposing views. Once any sub-reddit gets to a certain size, group think takes over. WSB is no different and suffers badly suffers from this. Something like boards is far, far better suited to nuanced discussion. You literally get automatically shadow-banned on reddit if your comments get downvoted too quickly.

    Hence why many have moved on from WSB, imo.
    During the early timeframe of the GME moves in particular WSB went off the rails and that was facilitated in no small part by the mods there (and confirmed as such).
    That was part and parcel of the moves to new sub reddits that culminated in r/superstonks.

    In related GME/memestock news, r/atobitt dropped parts 2&3 of his "House of Cards" DD last night that some may find interesting.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlwqyv/house_of_cards_part_3/


  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Got a few I bought late in the day and I'm waiting to go green or even close will do. This is a complete and utter ponzi scheme. I had been following r/superstonk and they did a live stream of the vote. Oh my f'ing christ what an eye opener. To see the people behind the hype, I don't know why I expected anything else, but it was a bit of a shock. I think I actually said "holy sh!t" out loud as the reality of what my money was going into hit home. I've never seen such a bunch of immature, amateur, clueless clowns in all my life.

    Well done if you made a lot of money. My gains were modest, and if I don't see a pump next week I'm taking some out at a hefty loss.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,364 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    What vote was this?

    Seeing the people you're invested alongside would be an eye opener for a lot of people. The Robinhood/WSB stereotype is a young American male. The young american males we see over here tend to be college students, movie characters, sport stars etc. In reality, there's far more lads living in a basement and working in 7Eleven


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,491 ✭✭✭Montage of Feck


    Rhodium

    🙈🙉🙊



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