Damaging winds Thursday 13:00 onward

Winger_PL · 10-11-2010 3:39pm

dryan wrote: »

Can you please take loads of pics and post up here if you make it back safely?;)

I'll have my laptop with a 3G card as well so we'll try to keep you guys updated!

Storm 10 · 10-11-2010 3:41pm

Winger_PL wrote: »

I'll have my laptop with a 3G card as well so we'll try to keep you guys updated!

What ever you guys do stay safe dont do anything stupid for a picture its not worth it.

nacho libre · 10-11-2010 3:44pm

http://www.sat24.com/

it'll be interesting to keep an eye on this: http://www.marine.ie/home/publicationsdata/data/buoys/observations.htm#M4

Winger_PL · 10-11-2010 3:44pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

What ever you guys do stay safe dont do anything stupid for a picture its not worth it.

I'm married, not allowed to do stupid things anymore, unfortunately :pac:
My laptop lasts for 2 hours only on batteries so if we suddenly stop posting don't call the Coast Guard!

Iancar29 · 10-11-2010 3:45pm

Winger_PL wrote: »

I'm married, not allowed to do stupid things anymore, unfortunately :pac:
My laptop lasts for 2 hours only on batteries so if we suddenly stop posting don't call the Coast Guard!

WE aint no Reed Timmer ha...

nacho libre · 10-11-2010 3:54pm

here comes Carmen:

http://saturn.unibe.ch/rsbern/noaa/dw/realtime/current/800/n1bcurr.jpg

Storm 10 · 10-11-2010 4:00pm

nacho libre wrote: »

here comes Carmen:

http://saturn.unibe.ch/rsbern/noaa/dw/realtime/current/800/n1bcurr.jpg

Hi nacho libre who names these storms or where can you see the name

maquiladora · 10-11-2010 4:03pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Hi nacho libre who names these storms or where can you see the name

http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/adopt-a-vortex/tief/#aktuell/

TheMilkyPirate · 10-11-2010 4:05pm

I hate posting the same question twice but i'd really like to know. Am i right in saying these spin anti-clockwise so i won't be seeing any rough seas at wexford quay tomorrow?

Or will i?:pac:

Winger_PL · 10-11-2010 4:05pm

Rapidly deepening Atlantic low moving steadily eastwards, expected just west of Rockall 945 by 0600 tomorrow.

(source)

Now how does that sound?

Hells Belle · 10-11-2010 4:08pm

baraca wrote: »

I hate posting the same question twice but i'd really like to know. Am i right in saying these spin anti-clockwise so i won't be seeing any rough seas at wexford quay tomorrow?

Or will i?:pac:

Thats what the beeb have for Irish Sea:
Gale warnings - Issued: 0336 UTC Wed 10 Nov

Southerly severe gale force 9 expected later

Shipping Forecast - Issued: 1130 UTC Wed 10 Nov

WindNorthwesterly, backing southerly or southwesterly 5 or 6, increasing 7 to severe gale 9, veering westerly or southwesterly later.Sea StateVery rough or high.WeatherShowers, rain for a time.VisibilityModerate or good, occasionally poor.

maquiladora · 10-11-2010 4:08pm

Winger_PL wrote: »

(source)

Now how does that sound?

5 hpa lower than the 06Z GFS.

nacho libre · 10-11-2010 4:08pm

I just hope this storm doesn't decide to track 50-100 miles northwards at the last minute, or fill quicker than projected.

maquiladora · 10-11-2010 4:10pm

Hells Belle wrote: »

Thats what the beeb have for Irish Sea:
Gale warnings - Issued: 0336 UTC Wed 10 Nov

Southerly severe gale force 9 expected later

Shipping Forecast - Issued: 1130 UTC Wed 10 Nov

WindNorthwesterly, backing southerly or southwesterly 5 or 6, increasing 7 to severe gale 9, veering westerly or southwesterly later.Sea StateVery rough or high.WeatherShowers, rain for a time.VisibilityModerate or good, occasionally poor.

Thats only up until noon tomorrow. Will get worse in the Irish Sea later tomorrow evening.

TheMilkyPirate · 10-11-2010 4:13pm

Thanks lads, Suppose i'll head down for a look tomorrow then.

Hells Belle · 10-11-2010 4:14pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Thats only up until noon tomorrow. Will get worse in the Irish Sea later tomorrow evening.

Cool, how about Waterford, would a trip to Tramore be worth a while?

maquiladora · 10-11-2010 4:16pm

nacho libre wrote: »

I just hope this storm doesn't decide to track 50-100 miles northwards at the last minute, or fill quicker than projected.

It's a little deeper than forecast now. Can't quite tell if the track is due north or south of its forecast points. I don't think it's due to start dropping more southwards until around 6pm.

H2UMrsRobinson · 10-11-2010 4:23pm

If you had to lay money on it, just how nailed on is this beast - we're under 24 hours out now so are we saying about 75% chance it will come off ?

Rougies · 10-11-2010 4:27pm

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

If you had to lay money on it, just how nailed on is this beast - we're under 24 hours out now so are we saying about 75% chance it will come off ?

Latest models will be rolling out in a few minutes, we'll have a better idea then. but 75% wouldn't be far off at the moment (for a decent storm that it, it's definitely gonna be windy!).

H2UMrsRobinson · 10-11-2010 4:29pm

Rougies wrote: »

Latest models will be rolling out in a few minutes, we'll have a better idea then. but 75% wouldn't be far off at the moment (for a decent storm that it, it's definitely gonna be windy!).

i'd back that horse ! going to wait for the models to cheer my afternoon right up

:D:D

Trogdor · 10-11-2010 4:34pm

Looking like another upgrade in strengh/lower central pressure on the 12z.

maquiladora · 10-11-2010 4:37pm

12Z NAE has the centre of the low slightly further north at 18 hours.

ninebeanrows · 10-11-2010 4:38pm

Depression near 945mb to our Northwest at 5am, extremely steep gradient on it's southern flank.

mikom · 10-11-2010 4:39pm

"And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts
And I looked and behold, a pale horse
And his name that sat on him was Death
And Hell followed with him."

Hope not.

Iancar29 · 10-11-2010 4:41pm

mikom wrote: »

"And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts
And I looked and behold, a pale horse
And his name that sat on him was Death
And Hell followed with him."

Less of the scary poems please, ha

Popoutman · 10-11-2010 4:44pm

Winger_PL wrote: »

I was thinking about the Menawn hill on the Achill, by the radio towers, 400m ASL, surely that'll be something?
Where are you heading from?

I'd say you'll be in the cloudlayer from there. Might be a bit of a problem with stability of the car if the gusts catch it wrong. Maybe a ground anchor required?

A better place may be along the Atlantic Drive..

ninebeanrows · 10-11-2010 4:44pm

I think there is a possibility our saving grace from an extreme event is that the low will be just beginning to fill as it moves into Scotland.

TheMilkyPirate · 10-11-2010 4:47pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think there is a possibility our saving grace from an extreme event is that the low will be just beginning to fill as it moves into Scotland.

What do you mean?

maquiladora · 10-11-2010 4:48pm

GFS and NAE 12Z are both slightly further north at 30 hours.

Will this be the start of the last minute downgrade? :P

Winger_PL · 10-11-2010 4:51pm

Popoutman wrote: »

I'd say you'll be in the cloudlayer from there. Might be a bit of a problem with stability of the car if the gusts catch it wrong. Maybe a ground anchor required?

A better place may be along the Atlantic Drive..

We'll see how it looks when we get there. Luckily the car has a fairly aerodynamical shape and the access road to the mountain will be covered from the high winds, still, I would feel a bit better if I had 2 more souls on board for that extra weight :-) So if anyone wants to go, let me know.

Obviously, if it's slippery and extremely windy I won't risk getting on the mountain in the first place. Safety first.

Hooter23 · 10-11-2010 4:51pm

maquiladora wrote: »

GFS and NAE 12Z are both slightly further north at 30 hours.

Will this be the start of the last minute downgrade? :P

Ya but is the pressure a bit stronger so no real difference to strength of the wind:pac:

ninebeanrows · 10-11-2010 4:53pm

baraca wrote: »

What do you mean?

The storm reaches peak intensity of around 945mb northwest of Ireland but fills to around 955mb as it approaches Scotland.

maquiladora · 10-11-2010 4:55pm

Hooter23 wrote: »

Ya but is the pressure a bit stronger so no real difference to strength of the wind:pac:

Slightly weaker winds in the south. Its interesting that both GFS and NAE are showing it further north, not much difference now, but could be the start of a trend.

Min · 10-11-2010 4:57pm

I am surprised the UK met office has no warnings out for Northern Ireland.

Iancar29 · 10-11-2010 4:58pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Slightly weaker winds in the south. Its interesting that both GFS and NAE are showing it further north, not much difference now, but could be the start of a trend.

SHH!! Dont be saying stuff like that!

Would be fun if it was similiar to this....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEUYzOBdq1c

Hooter23 · 10-11-2010 5:04pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Slightly weaker winds in the south. Its interesting that both GFS and NAE are showing it further north, not much difference now, but could be the start of a trend.

I can't hear u:mad: lol I don't want this storm to be a let down like the last one:D

Su Campu · 10-11-2010 5:09pm

Pressure observations at 15Z, tieing in nicely with model output.

snowjon · 10-11-2010 5:13pm

Min wrote: »

I am surprised the UK met office has no warnings out for Northern Ireland.

Yes me too - I can only imagine they are predicting a more southerly movement of the strongest winds :rolleyes:

snaps · 10-11-2010 5:13pm

Min wrote: »

I am surprised the UK met office has no warnings out for Northern Ireland.

Perhaps they know something we dont??

maquiladora · 10-11-2010 5:13pm

Press down to 960 at 4pm

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?date=2010111016&lang=en&map=AtlN

12Z NAE has it at 960 at 6pm so it might be deepening slighty faster.

Popoutman · 10-11-2010 5:14pm

Winger_PL wrote: »

We'll see how it looks when we get there. Luckily the car has a fairly aerodynamical shape and the access road to the mountain will be covered from the high winds, still, I would feel a bit better if I had 2 more souls on board for that extra weight :-) So if anyone wants to go, let me know.

Obviously, if it's slippery and extremely windy I won't risk getting on the mountain in the first place. Safety first.

I know the place well enough. Cycled up it on a 7" all-mountain bike, just so I could turn around and go down. Watch out for the airborne sheep, and if driving up take care at the last bend to the left, as the road becomes visible to the winds from the west. If the car is rocking significantly, don't go up - once a car starts to move in the wind there's usually not much chance of recovering it.
Going down to Dookinella (the beach at the eastern end of Keel Beach) will give you the best location to get the effects of the seas while remaining in a relaively safe location there.

Indeed, safety first - better not to be a newspaper headline.

Oliver1985 · 10-11-2010 5:18pm

What speeds did the winds get up to in Dublin Sunday /Monday?

nacho libre · 10-11-2010 5:19pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Press down to 960 at 4pm

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?date=2010111016&lang=en&map=AtlN

12Z NAE has it at 960 at 6pm so it might be deepening slighty faster.

perhaps there could be Rapid Cyclogenesis/ bombing going on:p

WolfeIRE · 10-11-2010 5:22pm

Clare County Council is urging home and business owners throughout the county to take precautionary steps in view of Met Eireann’s weather advisory for tomorrow, Thursday.

Heavy rain and strong winds are expected to affect much of the country. Clare County Council say it is progressing contingency arrangements in terms of additional pumping capacity and other flood alleviation measures.

Ger Dollard, Ennis Town Manager and Director of Services confirmed that river levels have increased significantly over the past two weeks, and that the Council is “continually monitoring the situation”.

Mr Dollard added: “The Council has been involved since late last week in putting in place a lot of preparatory and contingency measures on a precautionary basis due to present weather patterns. This has involved staff being specifically assigned to these measures. We continue to maintain a high level of vigilance in relation to a potential flooding situation and are assessing the most up to date data on a daily basis to best inform our response.”

Flooding advice is available on www.flooding.ie. The website features advice on identifying flooding risks, protecting property against flooding, necessary steps to be taken if a property is flooded, and assessing and repairing property damaged by flooding.

Su Campu · 10-11-2010 5:25pm

Oliver1985 wrote: »

What speeds did the winds get up to in Dublin Sunday /Monday?

Gusts
Dublin Airport 38kts
Casement 53kts

maquiladora · 10-11-2010 5:29pm

Met Eireann forecaster Eoin Sherlock told the Herald today that very strong winds are heading for Ireland with gusts of up to 105kph expected in the Dublin area tomorrow at teatime and tomorrow night.

http://www.herald.ie/weather/big-chill-is-over-but-stand-by-for-the-105kph-winds-2414017.html

ninebeanrows · 10-11-2010 5:37pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Gusts
Dublin Airport 38kts
Casement 53kts

Let's have a competition.

They are extremely conservative estimates.

I also think Dublin Airport is more exposed to Westerlies than Casement.

I will go for,

GUST Dublin Airport 67KT
GUST Casement 63KT

These are based on 925KT winds which will come to the ground in squalls.

Think it will be one of those days with Mean windspeed of around 25-35KTs but with big gusts in squalls and showers.

tylercollins · 10-11-2010 5:38pm

Anyone know as to why no warnings have been issued for Northern Ireland? Are they expecting something else to happen maybe?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_warnings.html

irish1967 · 10-11-2010 5:39pm

GUST Dublin Airport 72KT
GUST Casement 70KT

Min · 10-11-2010 5:40pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Met Eireann forecaster Eoin Sherlock told the Herald today that very strong winds are heading for Ireland with gusts of up to 105kph expected in the Dublin area tomorrow at teatime and tomorrow night.

http://www.herald.ie/weather/big-chill-is-over-but-stand-by-for-the-105kph-winds-2414017.html

I guess that is why it is not a big story.

Last Sunday, it was Dublin could get flooded, a bit like last winter, parts of the country were suffering in December but it was not until Dublin got affected that it was taken seriously.

Nothing against Dublin but that is how these things work, like the massive snowfall in Cavan last March, barely made the news.

Damaging winds Thursday 13:00 onward

Comments