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Dodgy statistics and the railway?

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    #2
    368100
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,067 ✭✭✭368100


    Claude Wilton wrote: »
    Carlo Gebler has an interesting piece in today's Indo, suggesting that the stats Irish Rail uses to measure the use of rural stations are skewed downwards.

    Now, what would be their incentive to do that? More to the point, who would benefit?


    http://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/railing-against-threat-to-trains-36206695.html#

    More subsidy paid maybe?


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    #3
    Claude Wilton
    Closed Accounts Posts: 86 ✭✭Claude Wilton


    368100 wrote: »
    More subsidy paid maybe?

    Not if lines get closed..


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    #4
    368100
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,067 ✭✭✭368100


    Claude Wilton wrote: »
    Not if lines get closed..

    Maybe that's the intent instead. Under report loss making routes to get them closed. All pure speculation though.


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    #5
    end of the road
    Registered Users Posts: 28,984 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    368100 wrote: »
    Maybe that's the intent instead. Under report loss making routes to get them closed. All pure speculation though.

    the thing is that the majority of the railway seems to be loss making, and IE get money for operating it. it doesn't operate on a commercial and self-sustaining basis so IE effectively have no reason to care about it being loss making.
    so it is definitely something else, but what that is, i'm unsure. i have had a lot of theories over the years.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



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    #6
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    There's a wealth of information here:
    https://www.nationaltransport.ie/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/NTA_AR_2016_FINAL_for_web.pdf

    NTA 2016 Annual Report, if you want some stuff from a source other than Irish Rail.


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    #7
    fxotoole
    Registered Users Posts: 1,661 ✭✭✭fxotoole


    end of the road wrote: »
    IE effectively have no reason to care about it being loss making.

    Unless they want an excuse to go out on strike for more pay


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    #8
    LeinsterDub
    Registered Users Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    Claude Wilton wrote: »
    Carlo Gebler has an interesting piece in today's Indo, suggesting that the stats Irish Rail uses to measure the use of rural stations are skewed downwards.

    Now, what would be their incentive to do that? More to the point, who would benefit?


    http://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/railing-against-threat-to-trains-36206695.html#

    It's an opinion piece , which we can't read. Does he cite any facts or figures?


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    #9
    Claude Wilton
    Closed Accounts Posts: 86 ✭✭Claude Wilton


    LeinsterDub wrote: »
    It's an opinion piece , which we can't read. Does he cite any facts or figures?

    Its free to register to view it. I'll put something up in a short while from it.


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    #10
    Claude Wilton
    Closed Accounts Posts: 86 ✭✭Claude Wilton


    devnull wrote: »
    There's a wealth of information here:
    https://www.nationaltransport.ie/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/NTA_AR_2016_FINAL_for_web.pdf

    NTA 2016 Annual Report, if you want some stuff from a source other than Irish Rail.

    His article argues that the data gleaned from rail censuses is faulty, so unless the NTA have a differing methodology from Irish Rail it won't tell us anything different.


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    #11
    LeinsterDub
    Registered Users Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    Claude Wilton wrote: »
    Its free to register to view it. I'll put something up in a short while from it.

    I didn't realise. I'll do it tomorrow. Thanks


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    #12
    goingnowhere
    Registered Users Posts: 4,133 ✭✭✭goingnowhere


    Claude Wilton wrote: »
    His article argues that the data gleaned from rail censuses is faulty, so unless the NTA have a differing methodology from Irish Rail it won't tell us anything different.

    NTA numbers are solid, independently gathered

    Yes its always a soggy Tuesday in November which presents a fair date unbiased from holidays, other events and most likely all commuters will be at work on the day.

    Don't tell the locals the date as they will all show up to bias the numbers. What is clear is year on year the numbers are fairly consistent across the least used


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    #13
    monument
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 14,072 Mod ✭✭✭✭monument


    goingnowhere wrote: »
    NTA numbers are solid, independently gathered

    Yes its always a soggy Tuesday in November which presents a fair date unbiased from holidays, other events and most likely all commuters will be at work on the day.

    Don't tell the locals the date as they will all show up to bias the numbers. What is clear is year on year the numbers are fairly consistent across the least used

    Fine for commuter services, but likely gives a distorted view of intercity services which may have higher usage on Mondays, Thursdays, Fridays.


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    #14
    goingnowhere
    Registered Users Posts: 4,133 ✭✭✭goingnowhere


    The goal of the survey is to understand commuting patterns

    Any date is arbitrary but must be the same day of the week to be consistent across the decade plus history of the process


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    #15
    monument
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 14,072 Mod ✭✭✭✭monument


    goingnowhere wrote: »
    The goal of the survey is to understand commuting patterns

    Any date is arbitrary but must be the same day of the week to be consistent across the decade plus history of the process

    NTA and others are using it for more than just daily commuting patterns.

    Looking at just one day is really not acceptable data collection in 2017. Limitations of the past should not be a reason for keeping going with limited data.


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    #16
    Claude Wilton
    Closed Accounts Posts: 86 ✭✭Claude Wilton


    monument wrote: »
    NTA and others are using it for more than just daily commuting patterns.

    Looking at just one day is really not acceptable data collection in 2017. Limitations of the past should not be a reason for keeping going with limited data.

    The article makes the assertion that Irish Rail aren't tying data from ticket machines to box office returns, thereby undercounting traffic from stations. Surely the existing ticketing system can capture all paid-for traffic, while there must be some way of capturing the data from the Public Services Cards used for free travel?

    Personally, I find it strange that both IR and the NTA use a head count once a year on a midweek day to base any or all decision making about the country's transport infrastructure on.


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    #17
    schemingbohemia
    Registered Users Posts: 5,606 ✭✭✭schemingbohemia


    Claude Wilton wrote: »
    The article makes the assertion that Irish Rail aren't tying data from ticket machines to box office returns, thereby undercounting traffic from stations. Surely the existing ticketing system can capture all paid-for traffic, while there must be some way of capturing the data from the Public Services Cards used for free travel?

    Personally, I find it strange that both IR and the NTA use a head count once a year on a midweek day to base any or all decision making about the country's transport infrastructure on.

    Where to start with this one.

    Annual Tickets
    Free Travel Pass
    Most stations outside the GDA (and quite a few within) don't have automated ticket gates so can't check who goes in and out.
    People booking tickets and not showing up - next time you're on an inter-city count the seats with names above with no-one sitting in them.
    What's wrong with counting actual people?
    Picking a mid-week day shows the "normal" journeys being made, not expanded by events. The canal cordon count in Dublin is usually mid-week too, it gets rid of the fluff.


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    #18
    Claude Wilton
    Closed Accounts Posts: 86 ✭✭Claude Wilton


    schemingbohemia wrote: »
    it gets rid of the fluff.

    To ask what might be an obvious question to you, what exactly is 'fluff' in this context, and why is it important to get 'rid' of it? What way is the 'fluff' supposed to get from A to B in that context?


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    #19
    schemingbohemia
    Registered Users Posts: 5,606 ✭✭✭schemingbohemia


    The whole point is to have comparable statistics year on year, if you eliminate the fluff you get the core business, the usual numbers travelling on a normal day.
    I have no idea what your last sentence actually means.


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    #20
    Claude Wilton
    Closed Accounts Posts: 86 ✭✭Claude Wilton


    schemingbohemia wrote: »
    The whole point is to have comparable statistics year on year, if you eliminate the fluff you get the core business, the usual numbers travelling on a normal day.
    I have no idea what your last sentence actually means.

    So, public transport should only be built or maintained for the benefit of the core travellers? That is what I meant.


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    #21
    schemingbohemia
    Registered Users Posts: 5,606 ✭✭✭schemingbohemia


    Do you know how business cases work? How to justify expenditure?

    It can't be done on the basis of someone maybe using the train/bus/tram twice a year when they've the Christmas shopping to do. Not much point in further discussing this with you.


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    #22
    goingnowhere
    Registered Users Posts: 4,133 ✭✭✭goingnowhere


    It costs a fortune to do

    There is a huge amount of ticket sales data to get the year round view.


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    #23
    Claude Wilton
    Closed Accounts Posts: 86 ✭✭Claude Wilton


    schemingbohemia wrote: »
    Do you know how business cases work? How to justify expenditure?

    It can't be done on the basis of someone maybe using the train/bus/tram twice a year when they've the Christmas shopping to do. Not much point in further discussing this with you.

    No need to take that snippy tone. I was working from one aspect of that article. There are other points in it but I will leave it for others to raise if they wish.


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    #24
    markpb
    Registered Users Posts: 9,250 ✭✭✭markpb


    monument wrote: »
    NTA and others are using it for more than just daily commuting patterns.

    Looking at just one day is really not acceptable data collection in 2017. Limitations of the past should not be a reason for keeping going with limited data.

    I suspect that the NTA survey is just independent confirmation of the daily figures that are already provided by Irish Rail. It would be funny if Irish Rail claimed 10 people a day were using Attymon but, when the NTA arrived, found 5,000 people lining the platform (or vice versa).


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