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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 10,664 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    I'm still learning about the synoptics of thunder, but if I'm reading this right there could be a possibility of a few thunderstorms if this chart verified next weekend?


    wxcharts has a great Convective Overview visualisation, and yes, there's a small bit of potential on Saturday:


    cZa61n1.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,234 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    A few runs in a row now on the GFS are showing almost an inverted version of the Omega block we saw a couple of weeks back.

    Question for those more experienced here, what are the chances that the HP "wins" here and closes in that area of relatively lower pressure in the centre, thus putting us back in heatwave territory?

    gfs-0-150.png?6


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sdanseo wrote: »
    A few runs in a row now on the GFS are showing almost an inverted version of the Omega block we saw a couple of weeks back.

    Question for those more experienced here, what are the chances that the HP "wins" here and closes in that area of relatively lower pressure in the centre, thus putting us back in heatwave territory?

    It's a matter of just how ridgey or strong the areas of high pressure are. On that particular GFS run, the low is forced southeastwards by the Azores High and Scandi High trying to conjoin with one another the day afterwards but a few days later, this doesn't come to full fruition as the westerlies take over. There are two possible reasons for this:

    1. GFS' westerly bias
    2. The temperature contrasts in the North Atlantic which I described yesterday powering up the jet stream.

    The second reason is questionable on this run though because there is no retrogression of the high pressure up to Greenland and the jet stream is still quite a bit northwards.

    Why this week's showers or rain from Wednesday to Saturday are uncertain or downgraded after looking like decent spells of rain, is as a result of the jet stream. It's still quite a bit to the north of us and it's weak in its current state regardless of Chris therefore, there is no "real areas of low pressure" to be seen and brought across the North Atlantic through us.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    GFS 12z continues the saga, perhaps a stronger ridge on this run.

    Met Éireann suggest Friday to be a fine day generally, see their wording below. However, the GFS show Friday as quite a wet day (see its precipitation chart).
    Friday: Latest indications suggest brighter fresher weather for Friday with sunny spells and well scattered showers and temperatures of 16 to 21 degrees Celsius.

    xpsmDEd.png

    POvwSUn.png

    TPk7J5F.png

    jS0vcmO.png

    UKMO 12z is trying to build up that ridge.

    OX2YNsW.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    The models have really upgraded the heat overnight for next weekend and beyond with heatwave conditions again likely to take place over the UK and Ireland though as you'd expect by the timeframe, there are some differences among the models. Here I discuss what the latest runs of the two models, GFS and ECMWF, show. The wording might sound a bit weird since I originally made it for my blog which is for both the UK and Ireland.

    The GFS 06z shows high pressure from the Azores ridging to us by Saturday 21st July which gradually over time pushes to our east and draws in a southerly to southeasterly flow with hot air from Europe. Low pressure is stalling in the Atlantic as a result of this area of high pressure and if that low were to invade a few days following the establishment of hot weather over us then there'd be some severe thunderstorms. This is a proper hot scenario with temperatures easily getting into the 30s across England and Wales whilst mid to high 20s over Ireland and Scotland. If the wind was to sustain a southeasterly airstream along with the high pressure not going too far east, then 30°C is not out of the woods for Ireland.

    U45T8on.png

    unqvqqm.png

    k4u45dJ.png

    ECM 0z is kind of different. It ridges in the high pressure similar to the GFS during next weekend (even hotter air on this model) but the jet stream is closer to the north of Ireland and over Scotland. This would mean it'd be cooler and cloudier up there with temperatures stuck in the high teens and low 20s mainly in any sunshine but generally mid to high teens. Elsewhere, we'd be talking mid to high 20s and low 30s over England & Wales. The high pressure also doesn't push east over to Scandinavia, it stays over top of us. The heatwave conditions dam line (564) is across Ireland on Saturday on the ECM whilst it makes its way to most parts then afterwards.

    h3bbZjM.gif

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    VtlTvfz.png

    dr9RPkn.png

    VhVd8Gj.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    GFS 12z is very strange, it gets the jet stream southwards but low pressure is still well to the north and going by the first chart here, you would think that the Azores High would fully ridge up to us like how the 06z showed?

    lGrCMSs.png

    wXz1EmA.png

    UKMO 12z suggests a warm to hot Sunday 22nd July.

    msi4kls.gif

    ZYdvn8P.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    ECM 12z goes the high pressure route though at +192 hrs, it goes a bit "wonky" in weakening the high pressure along with looking like cool 850hPa temperatures coming down from the northwest but at the end, there is a thundery trough just to the southwest of Ireland with both countries in a hot plume of air.

    IPYshFz.gif

    QIxwQeC.png

    pIVj6yA.gif

    PVTSm7Y.png

    vHCXEyW.gif

    wBujj3Kg.gif

    qyl81ZG.gif

    Different solutions are still being thrown around as shown from the 12z runs so none of this certain and is to be taken with a pinch of salt for now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭esposito


    Just watched the extended outlook on bbc news 24.

    Turning increasingly hot, humid and mainly dry in the southern half of the UK by this weekend as high pressure pushes north from the Azores. Hopefully that means most of Ireland will benefit too. We shall see.


  • Registered Users Posts: 65 ✭✭daphne


    Will North west and Ireland escape low activity though? The Met Eireann pressure charts out to 22nd looking like we would get a ridge of high forming over us again...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    GFS 18z and 0z were changeable westerlies with day to day variation in temperatures but for the south and east, not a lot of rain. The 06z looks to me like following similar suit going by its progression so far up to the FI period.

    ECM 0z builds the high for Sunday/Monday but the jet stream is close to the north and west so perhaps not all that sunny. Afterwards, the Atlantic tries to break through and does so for Ireland on this run but the lows can't budge eastwards cause of the high pressure over Scandinavia and they just get shoved to the north of Scotland.

    Sunday/Monday still looking like very warm days.

    yrWOTwl.png

    dK3Ugrn.png


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    GFS and ECM for once quite similar from +192 hrs to +240 hrs. A decent Lp which you would imagine could produce a fair amount of rainfall. 12Z ECM rolling out atm, we will see if it holds it.

    gfs-0-192_jdc8.png

    gfs-0-240_wal4.png



    ECM1-192_nrc7.GIF

    ECM1-240_vgl8.GIF


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    12Z ECM quite similar at +240 hrs . Been showing a large area of LP towards the end of next week ( along with some smaller areas of LP and troughs possible mid week ).

    ECM1-240_vua7.GIF

    DqPX5Ei.png

    5R3lxyY.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    After a warm weekend, the GFS 06z brings down a cold front for Monday into Tuesday next week which will bring cooler temperatures again for a time and some light rain. After that, high pressure starts approaching from the south (again) and ridges to the east with low pressure stalling to the west by Thursday forcing the wind direction to go into a humid southwesterly to southerly. This goes on for a few days before low pressure successfully makes it through. Very hot temperatures over the UK in that kind of setup and evident of a heatwave whilst for Ireland, mainly around the high teens out west and low 20s elsewhere though possibly higher once the sun shines. The GFS 0z was very similar.

    nsi2tQI.png

    GFS 06z ensembles are in agreement at +240 hrs as shown by the chart below. The first ensemble diagram is for London whilst the second and third ones are Dublin and Cork respectively. Just look at how much the white line (ensemble mean) is above the red line (30 year average) for London. Some real serious heat coming to them if the GFS 06z ensembles are correct. Even if it's not as warm here as it is there, it will be very humid!

    DL20XuP.png

    bPxlEnK.png

    e4yU5q8.png

    JFFX0O6.png

    ECM 0z is similar to the GFS but it delays the real push of heat for the UK for a day whilst low pressure anchors itself over Ireland.

    Ur0fFZm.gif

    BaUTBeC.gif

    Still all to play for it seems.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Pub Run has arrived early with the GFS 12z :pac:. This run goes all out crazy with the heat for the UK and is trying its best to keep the Atlantic at bay. Tuesday's cold front doesn't make it through the whole country with 850hPa temperatures staying above 5c through much of the southern swave of Ireland on this run. After this, the high intensifies to the south and east turning up the furnace for real in the UK. I'm showing some of these charts just for a good laugh here because this run is sensational. The southerlies go on and on before being cut off bang on the first of August but high pressure continues.

    *IF* the GFS 12z were to verify, UK temperature record of 38.5c from August 2003 would be under threat. The model itself shows maximum of 36c and as we know, it usually underestimates temperatures. I'm not saying it isn't possible but this run is almost certain to be an outlier in the ensembles with the extreme side of its heat. This is truly dangerous level of heat for the UK. For Ireland, we'd be more mid-20s but still very humid! Also, if this heat were to happen or sustain throughout the rest of July, the CET could have its first ever 20c month! (The warmest month on record was July 2006 with a CET of 19.7c)

    Little rain again by the way away from the west.

    CmYgJAj.png

    4Dx8oEJ.png

    aywa6CV.png

    Ii3zB3m.png

    MD2foVy.png

    LYbCMGA.png

    QFXFivF.png

    CfhG1U4.png

    Maximum temperatures (remember to add 1 or 2c for more accurate values) on GFS 12z for Sunday 29th July:

    vBOuZ1W.png

    Latest GFS ensembles have pretty much vanished the negative NAO signal and the NAO will be staying positive meaning Azores High will continue to be strong and ridgey.

    5ucskQa.gif

    If you didn't think it was crazy enough going by all that above, well......

    https://twitter.com/TWOweather/status/1019625137560346624


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    ECM 12z is warm again. Tuesday's cold front pushes southwards for a time but then can't budge much further thanks to the blocking area of high pressure to the east and gets shoved back westwards or fizzles out. The Atlantic trying to come back but just doesn't on this ECM run with a low just out to the west whilst the wind is coming from a southerly direction drawing in hot, humid air. This is mainly to England but even Ireland would be warm widely in the 20s and humid.

    vYqZfb0.gif

    86w1bVW.gif

    HLc7CBN.png

    r1bZeR5.png

    Mc1ogVJ.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    I have 20 miles per day to walk in England right where that 36C blob is. Lovely.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Out into FI only slack areas of LP coming across the Atlantic it would seem which look too weak to make any inroads on the HP over Europe and as has been the case so far having little impact on the rainfall deficit here. On the end of the ECM 12Z run looks like a shallow area of LP could stall or make slow progress to our SW or S. GFS similar.

    gfs-0-240_orm2.png

    ECM1-240_vng2.GIF


    3aI7UnG.png

    rErDkdW.png

    iWOI7R2.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    An interesting set up the end of next week for sure. Fine margins indeed.

    https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1019639326970433536


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yes if the Scandi High gets going we could be in for a repeat of August 1995.

    Its a very mixed picture of charts. One run hot one run not so hot.

    Remember the middle of June they promised an end to heatwave but then it reappeared in the charts a few days later.

    Definitely think England is due some real heat still this Summer if not us. Think away from North and West will definitely get warm spells of sunshine and these areas too on specific days.

    Looking at charts there certainly could be another 30c somewhere in Ireland yet in the coming fortnight. But rain too at times mainly in more Western areas.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 991 ✭✭✭MrDerp


    This is nuts.

    Technical question: What kind of energy would be needed to break down this blocking? I've always read with interest here about SSWs and their impact on winter time blocking. Is there a low pressure event that can break down this weather, or is it a self-reinforcing pattern (summer solar energy plus established block, for example) that actually requires winter to break it down? Could some hurricane remnants steer the jetstream and provide a weather bomb and break it?

    I read sryanbruen's comments on the analogs with 1995 previously with interest, is a similar pattern (local swings of 100-200km notwithstanding) looking more and more likely?


  • Registered Users Posts: 65 ✭✭daphne


    I see MT Cranium says that we are going to get some proper rainfall 27th July-1/2nd Aug... are the runs now converging on that?


  • Registered Users Posts: 65 ✭✭daphne


    And... Boom?456134.PNG


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    daphne wrote: »
    I see MT Cranium says that we are going to get some proper rainfall 27th July-1/2nd Aug... are the runs now converging on that?

    Well they have shown that around day 10 of the charts several times but it hasn't materialized.

    His forecast of 50mm from those dates is very interesting and will give a lot of farmers some great hope!

    Not sure I would be brave enough to forecast it mind :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    There is a 50/50 chance of heavy rain at end of month

    However the other 50 percent is for a renewed heatwave so I give up at this stage

    Model consensus from run to run is non existent presently.

    However the Atlantic is still quite inactive so nothing severe will happen rainwise till this changes.

    I do think a period of very heavy rain will have to come in August.

    Sometime


  • Registered Users Posts: 65 ✭✭daphne


    That met eireann sequence seems to show the Atlantic high receding west / south west away from us.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    To prove how the GFS (other models too) hasn't got a clue, here's all its runs since 0z on Tuesday (up to 06z today) for 14:00 on Thursday 26th July.

    mlcpto0.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,484 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    To prove how the GFS (other models too) hasn't got a clue, here's all its runs since 0z on Tuesday (up to 06z today) for 14:00 on Thursday 26th July.

    mlcpto0.gif

    Throughout my life if we are having a wet summer and models are showing an anticyclone over Ireland in 7 to 10 days after a run it seldom materialise to be true. I think the opposite is happening this summer. A low pressure system is either downgraded or replaced with high pressure as Sryan demonstrated in a few posts above.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yes Ive been keeping an eye on forecast for Sunday all week.

    The temperatures started
    21 to 27c mondays met forecast
    22c to 26c tuesdays met forecast
    22c to high twenties wed morning forecast
    22c to 25c thurs morning forecast
    19c to 24c this evening on news

    Its usually the average of all

    Id say it will be 21c in Sligo Sunday

    Wouldnt it be funny if it was 21c to 27c like the original prediction. Could be.

    Even if it rains every day now 2018 is set in stone as one of the great Summers. e.g remember the fantastic weather we had in 2018 from May to July will be the refrain here for many years Id say though I forgot about July 2013 until this year and I checked old photos on phone and yes it was hot in Sligo


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,234 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    12Z ECM shows much of the same as what we have for the next 10 days, mildly warmer Sunday and Monday then back as we were.

    Then the following weekend the Atlantic very much wins. Very little precip up to 25th and then pow, we get 30mm.

    As Sryan said though - FI is not much past 3/4 days. This is 9/10, so large tub of salt.

    de112426a6a1be77eefc1f3ceddcf070.png

    9f895b8f654d2c5f342d5a6bb018f215.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,810 ✭✭✭Calibos


    Hope the 50% chance of renewed heatwave comes to pass for the weekend of the 28/29th or at the very least the rain is delayed till Sunday Night.

    Bray Airshow on that weekend.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Since you brought up the ECM, well here's every ECM run for the same time period (26th July) since Monday. It has been far more consistent than the above GFS runs but still not "brilliantly" consistent to really grow confidence. Notice on the ECM charts though the lack of northern blocking.

    The teleconnections support more of the same of this Summer but.... there are some spanners in the works like potential tropical developments, Pacific trade wind bursts etc.

    QjhZ42N.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Well the ECM has certainly made rain a stronger possibility the second half of next week with the merging of two areas of LP deepening off the coast and this set up would probably send in a few rain belts and showers to follow. Tight isobars also so potentially windy on these charts for now anyway. The synoptic chart posted by sdanseo showing the jet very active also. Wil be interesting to see if it keeps up this trend.

    Showing HP building over Ireland on the end of the run.

    The GFS not showing anything like the temperatures that was showing yesterday for the UK for the 28th, from the high 30's to the mid 20's today.

    nSpADMM.gif?1

    Te3r9bK.png

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The ECM 12Z showing the Jet getting quite active over Ireland next week. Will be watching to see if this continues and could it help to deepen does areas of LP at the end of the week , producing higher winds / more rain. At the end of the run it moves more North letting HP build again over Ireland. All FI of course :)

    uo7zzXg.png

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Have we ever seen the models so topsy turvy? Every single run is different. Even during the snow they weren't this different every day, bar one or two days,


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    I think theyr topsy turvy coz a change is coming and they dont believe it.

    Theres been rain in Sligo on all days this week bar one.

    Jetstream is back home

    Normal Summer service has resumed.

    Still at least went on holidays in dry spell.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    I think the models are starting to come in line more and more with potential for substantial spells of rain from weds to Fri , perhaps with ridging over Ireland from around Fri with pressure building along with some rise in temperatures but atm not looking overly warm. Both main models showing that this may last until around Monday / Tuesday with signs that the Atlantic will push through again.

    gfs-0-150_krm4.png

    nUMMtBV.png?1

    UW144-21_ckm3.GIF

    1YK5wbK.png

    UMMt2kS.png

    gfs-0-252_ste0.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    ECMWF has mived the trough slightly further west which could see most of the decent rain confined to western areas though.

    UKMO brings it closer though so still a lot that will change.

    The ECMWF Clusters showed a bring spread behind +240 and I wouldn’t like to try call that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    GFS 12z shows the Wednesday rain band quite weak in nature, even for the west of the country. It seems we're about firming up on the details that Ireland will have a fairly warm but damp affair for the end of July with temperatures in the high teens most of the time out west and low 20s to the east. Rain not looking heavy at all generally so not really a lot going on for Ireland if this is right. Still no signs of northern blocking so not much of a cool down either but the heat will be far more focused on southeastern England this time around compared to May and much of June when it was the north and west of the UK along with Ireland that had the heat.

    wbFATPo.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    I'm thinking the ECM is getting fairly consistent now based over the last 4 runs with a share of rain from Weds through Fri ( timing of course not pinned down ). Just inside FI range sees decent accumulated precipitation for 24 hrs, a bit off I know but it is holding this pattern now for a number of runs. The rainfall although not very heavy looks prolonged so the amounts may add up over the couple of days.

    t2ld4TM.png

    LA9gXNf.png

    vlqMXKq.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Ridging on the latest ECM runs not as strong letting LP fronts brush up against the country around Sunday next. Will see if this develops into a new consistent trend.

    c0RWLiO.png

    WpPNcg3.png

    z5xFO6A.png?1


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    An almost autumnal look to the charts this week with the jet stream right over us and lows being whipped up in the Atlantic. Our wet windy south westerlies back home after disappearing for the best part of 5 months

    gfs-0-72_amt4.png

    gfs-2-90_plt5.png

    gfs-0-150_jzf0.png

    gfs-2-144_tuk4.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    GFS 06z does it again. :pac:

    cdpSgD4.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,227 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Yup, as I begin to lose hope the 06Z GFS throws up this short oven blast!

    bfs4ux.png

    5akf1c.png

    Look at those temperatures over Paris!


  • Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Thewife


    I’m due to go to Paris that weekend , how likely is that those temperatures will come to fruition ? I’d acrually die in that heat LOL 🀣🀣

    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Yup, as I begin to lose hope the 06Z GFS throws up this short oven blast!

    bfs4ux.png

    5akf1c.png

    Look at those temperatures over Paris!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,227 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    It's 10 days out and quite an outlier so I'd say quite unlikely. However something in the 30's is likely.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,996 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    In Paris, temperatures in the 30s would not be unusual at all. I spent a few summers there and it gets very hot, you also don't get much relief on the hotter days as you are a long way from any coast line. I have to travel to London a decent amount and while it tends to be warmer than Dublin, Paris is a whole other level. The difference between Ireland / UK and then Continental Europe is so big.
    That being said temps in Ireland this summer have been ideal. I would take mid to high 20s every time over temps in the 30s.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,255 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    Any idea what the weather will be like next Tuesday the 31st? Due to get the ferry to Wales and hoping it won't be too rough.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    UKMO 12z has a changeable weekend for Ireland, cooler Saturday but temperatures already rising again for Sunday as the low pressure starts travelling northwards instead of eastwards. Think the Azores High and Scandi High are trying to link with one another. Looks kind of a knife edge though as there's another drop of 850hPa temperatures in the middle of the North Atlantic that would likely be involved with another low which would push towards us if we could go on a bit further with the model.

    SPGfrG9.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    In contrast to the 06z, the GFS 12z shows no plume for the UK and the heat is far more sensible. High pressure starts building over Ireland too. Next runs are likely to change again knowing the inconsistency of every run of the GFS recently.

    dmgM1yE.gif


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  • Registered Users Posts: 105 ✭✭Periscal


    We had lovely summer so far,can't complain ,but unfortunately there are ominous signs of emerging Euro High-killer of our recent summers,so unless if you live in SE corner of UK I wouldn't get your hopes high for the foreseeable outlook,perhaps the odd chance East coast might have a few days rest from Atlantic lows,but watch that low south of Iceland not moving for weeks now as it hits the blocking high, thanks god this came now not in May


This discussion has been closed.
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