December 2013 Boards forecast contest

done

December 2013 forecasts
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Elf'orecaster _____ IMT __ MAX __ MIN __ PRC __ SUN __ Max,Min __ Snow
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Jpmarn ________ 7.5 __ 15.5 __ --4.2 __ 125 __ 076 ____ 1.1 _ 8.9 _ N
Pauldry ________ 7.0 __ 14.1 __ --6.3 __ 177 __ 077 ____2.0 _12.0 _ Y Kno
cogsy __ (-10) ___6.2 __ 14.0 __ --5.0 __ 050 __ 070 __ --3.0 _ 7.0 _ N
Bsal ___________ 5.9 __ 10.3 __ --4.0 __ 099 __ 085 ____0.5 _ 6.2 _ N
gonzo __________ 5.8 __ 13.9 __ --7.4 __ 068 __ 094 ___3.4 _10.5 _ N
Tae laidir _______ 5.8 __ 13.2 __ --5.0 __ 078 __ 095 ____4.0 _10.0 _ N
seafields ________5.7 __ 14.5 __--10.0 __ 080 __ 100 __ --1.5 _ 4.5 _ Y Kno
M.T. Cranium ____5.7 __ 14.2 __ --7.9 __ 055 __ 125 ___10.2 _12.8 _ N
harps __________ 5.7 __ 13.6 __ --5.8 __ 065 __ 120 __ --0.7 _ 5.1 _ N
nilhg ___________ 5.7 __ 13.2 __ --4.3 __ 090 __ 085 ___2.0 _ 8.1 _ N
omicron ________ 5.7 __ 13.0 __ --4.0 __ 100 __ 100 __ --1.0 _ 7.0 _ N
200motels ______ 5.7 __ 12.8 __ --4.9 __ 123 __ 070 __ --2.2 _ 9.8 _ N
tracey.1 ________ 5.6 __ 13.8 __ --5.9 __ 080 __ 105 ___ 2.5 _ 9.5 _ N
rameire _________5.6 __ 11.8 __ --5.5 __ 084 __ 092 __ --1.1 _ 5.4 _ N
kindredspirit (-10) .5.5 __ 13.0 __ --4.7 __ 095 __ 103 ____2.0 _ 9.0 _ N

Con Sensus _____ 5.5 __ 13.0 __ --6.0 __ 085 __ 098 ___1.0 _ 7.5 _ N

Lumi ___________ 5.5 __ 12.4 __ --6.3 __ 083 __ 087 ___2.5 _12.5 _ N
Rikand _________ 5.4 __ 12.3 __ --6.8 __ 100 __ 120 __ --2.0 _ 7.0 _ N
H2UMrsRob (-10) _5.4 __ 12.2 __ --4.9 __ 077 __ 108 __ --2.4 _ 6.7 _ Y Dub
talkabout _______ 5.4 __ 12.1 __ --7.2 __ 090 __ 090 ___ 2.1 _ 8.7 _ N
waterways ______ 5.3 __ 13.9 __ --8.0 __ 088 __ 099 ____1.5 _ 6.3 _ Y **
John Mac _ (-10) _ 5.2 __ 13.2 __ --6.2 __ 105 __ 089 ____ 1.2 _ 8.2 _ Y Kno
DOCARCH _______5.2 __ 12.3 __ --5.6 __ 087 __ 090 __ --1.6 _ 7.3 _ N
dasa29 _________ 5.2 __ 12.0 __ --8.0 __ 090 __ 100 __ --3.0 _ 6.0 _ Y Mul
dacogawa _______5.1 __ 13.2 __ --8.2 __ 078 __ 111 __ --1.2 _ 7.4 _ Y Mal*
gothwalk _______ 5.1 __ 13.0 __ --6.0 __ 085 __ 110 ___5.0 _12.5 _ N
jd _____________ 5.1 __ 12.4 __ --7.9 __ 101 __ 098 __ --2.1 _ 4.1 _ Y Bal
mickger844posts _ 5.0 __ 13.7 __ --6.3 __ 085 __ 110 ___3.3 _11.2 _ N
snowstreams ____ 4.8 __ 13.0 __ --6.7 __ 088 __ 120 __ --0.5 _ 5.5 _ N
okla ___________ 4.8 __ 14.6 __ --7.9 __ 085 __ 120 ___6.2 _10.4 _ Y Kno
Joe Public _______4.6 __ 12.9 __ --7.9 __ 089 __ 119 ____3.0 _ 9.0 _ N
homolumo (-10) __4.3 __ 10.0 __ --7.0 __ 082 __ 089 __ --1.0 _ 6.7 _ Y Cas

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For snowfall forecasts, those who chose "yes" have various stations predicted, for dacogawa (*) also Markree and Finner, for waterways (**) the site is Blue Stack Mtns but for this to qualify under contest rules snow will have to fall at nearest station which I believe is Finner.

After first seven days,

IMT was 6.8 C

PRC was 21%

SUN was 60%

(zzz zzzzzz zzzz zzzzz)

They may dig up something from Kerry as per July's MS, so as you say the day is likely to produce the monthly max but it could be something closer to 16 as reported on another thread. By the rules, I go with whatever the MS says the max was.

After 21 days and more average sorts of temperatures ...

IMT at 7.6 C

PRC up to 110% after a week that reversed the trend at 211%

SUN has fallen even further to 55% after a week near 45% of normal.

There was even a sub-zero minimum around -1 to report, but I imagine that will be edged out eventually.

From current model runs, would imagine IMT to finish in low to mid 6 range, losing about 0.2 a day on the colder days but holding steady on the milder days like tomorrow. PRC may not gain much more but could finish 120-130. SUN could gain a bit, any day with five hours of sunshine would probably be enough at this point.

Thanks for posting those, from what I saw the min was at the last hour but the morning low was fairly close to that as well, in case you're wondering.

I am inclined to cancel the three-point bonus for snow or no snow as being too close to call. Not aware of any specific hourly obs at a weather station saying snow, however Mullingar had "precipitation" at 23z with radar looking showery and temps low enough for snow. Also anecdotal reports of snow showers in one or two spots not just on high ground. Think it might just be best to say everyone right and cancel the three points. Thank this post if you agree, say otherwise if you don't agree, we have seven days to figure it out.

Jpmarn, nilhg, talkabout and John mac appear to be the four closest to the actual temperatures for Dublin on the 25th and would likely get the ten points available there. I think now that I will go with the idea of cancelling the yes or no three point extra bonus as I have no real way of knowing whether Mullingar had snow or not and I suspect it did. Probably won't change the outcome of the month or the year if I do so.

After four weeks ...

IMT had fallen off to 6.6

PRC up again to 127% after the week with 177%

SUN got some help from a weekly figure of 117% and is now at 74%

I can't see these changing very much now.

It seems that we now have the Jan 2014 forecast contest form up and running, will post the link in that thread.

Here's the complete report on December ...

IMT was 6.7 C

MAX was 15.2 C on the 12th at Finner and Malin Head

MIN was --2.7 C on the 29th at Moorepark

PRC was 150% of normal

SUN was 80% of normal

Dublin (A) max and min on 25th confirmed to be 8.1 and 0.7

As discussed, will scrap the three point super-bonus for snowfall as under the rules we can't be sure of a result. There may have been a small amount of snow at one station and certainly scattered falls on higher ground but we'll see if the three points could make any difference to the outcome in about an hour or two. So, on to scoring. Please note, Jan 2014 contest thread open, no penalty until 0300h and 5% every 8h to catch up to the usual schedule.

Updated Annual scoring report

rank/
best 10 _ Forecaster _______ J __ F __ M __ A __ M __ J __ J __ A __ S __ O __ N __ D __ Total


01 608 Con Sensus _______75 _ 69 _ 24 _ 60 _ 54 _ 76 _ 44 _ 55 _ 58 _ 59 _ 54 _ 40 __ 668 (2)

01 602 Tae laidir ________ 73 _ 68 _ 38 _ 59 _ 54 _ 55 _ 59 _ 47 _ 65 _ 75 _ 43 _ 47 __ 683 (1)
02 579 harps ___________ 73 _ 61 _ 47 _ 48 _ 53 _ 70 _ 42 _ 57 _ 61 _ 67 _ 32 _ 35 __ 646 (2)
03 566 kindredspirit ______66 _ 34 _ 55 _ 51 _ 42 _ 66 _ 51 _ 65 _ 60 _ 55 _ 55 _ 41 __ 641 (3)
04 560 dasa29___________35 _ 76 _ 69 _ 61 _ 69 _ 68 _ 21 _ 42 _ 59 _ 31 _ 50 _ 29 __ 610 (5)
05 557 omicron _________ 47 _ 49 _ 22 _ 50 _ 66 _ 67 _ --- _ 72 _ 45 _ 51 _ 52 _ 58 __ 579 (13)

06 553 Bsal _____________54 _ 35 _ 53 _ 38 _ 73 _ 75 _ 38 _ 75 _ 37 _ 47 _ 38 _ 62 __ 625 (4)
07 545 Pauldry __________59 _ 60 _ 34 _ 53 _ 51 _ 57 _ 32 _ 42 _ 51 _ 72 _ 14 _ 66 __ 591 (10t)
08 541 jpmarn __________ 36 _ 47 _ 23 _ 35 _ 54 _ 59 _ 65 _ 36 _ 54 _ 61 _ 45 _ 84 __ 599 (6)
08 541 traecy.1 _________ 79 _ 36 _ 21 _ 54 _ 29 _ 56 _ 50 _ 33 _ 60 _ 62 _ 67 _ 44 __ 591 (10t)
10 527 DOCARCH________ 42 _ 50 _ 36 _ 73 _ 30 _ 70 _ 60 _ 39 _ 56 _ 60 _ 37 _ 40 __ 593 (8t)

11 525 mickger844posts __ 35 _ 67 _ 40 _ 54 _ 37 _ 49 _ 66 _ 39 _ 60 _ 67 _ 46 _ 33 __ 593 (8t)
12 524 Jerry Seinfeld_____ 69 _ 54 _ 45 _ 60 _ 52 _ 74 _ 24 _ 44 _ 59 _ 43 _ --- _ --- __ 524 (21)
13 522 200motels________ 54 _ 61 _ 36 _ 52 _ 49 _ 25 _ 33 _ 46 _ 67 _ 58 _ 44 _ 55 __ 580 (12)
14 521 rameire__________ 60 _ 29 _ 44 _42 _ 56 _ 80 _ 18 _ 65 _ 39 _ 47 _ 45 _ 43 __ 568 (15)
14 521 John mac_________50 _ 23 _ 21 _ --- _ 64 _ 94 _ 31 _ 60 _ 50 _ 44 _ 65 _ 40 __ 542 (20)

16 518 nilhg ____________44 _ 47 _ 41 _ 50 _ 44 _ 51 _ 76 _ 54 _ 37 _ 45 _ 46 _ 61 __ 596 (7)
17 510 talkabout ________ 52 _ 58 _ 31 _ 44 _ 44 _ 67 _ 43 _ 43 _ 54 _ 30 _ 68 _ 37 __ 571 (14)
18 500 Joe Public ________ 25 _ 58 _59 _ 35 _ 21 _ 44 _ 62 _ 55 _ 57 _ 49 _ 56 _ 23 __ 544 (19)
19 499 homolumo _______ 69 _ 72 _ 40 _ 50 _ 31 _ 67 _ 27 _ 35 _ 73 _ 35 _ --- _ 11 __ 510 (22)
20 496 Rikand __________ 41 _ 48 _ 18 _ 56 _ 45 _ 75 _ 38 _ 42 _ 48 _ 38 _ 65 _ 33 __ 547 (17t)

21 490 dacogawa________ 51 _ 56 _ 35 _ 43 _ 38 _ 51 _ 40 _ 44 _ 76 _ 37 _ 54 _ 29 __ 554 (16)
22 486 okla ____________ 52 _ 43 _ 47 _ 60 _ 45 _ 54 _ 38 _ 17 _ --- _ 69 _ 45 _ 33 __ 503 (23)
22 486 M.T. Cranium _____ 34 _ 39 _ 31 _ 52 _ 47 _ 48 _ 52 _ 40 _ 55 _ 54 _ 65 _ 30 __ 547 (17t)
24 480 waterways _______ 57 _ 70 _ 21 _ 45 _ 41 _ 43 _ 14 _ --- _ 73 _ 51 _ 36 _ 43 __ 494 (24)
25 472 Strasser _________ 69 _ 38 _ 28 _ 54 _ -- _ 43 _ 28 _ 72 _ 38 _ 44 _ 58 _ --- __ 472 (28)

26 464 jd ______________ 49 _ 67 _ 14 _ 46 _ 36 _ 56 _ 31 _ 47 _ 59 _ 43 _ -- _ 30 __ 478 (27)
27 463 lostinashford _____ 27 _ 43 _ 29 _ 39 _ 58 _ 73 _ 50 _ 38 _ 57 _ 35 _ 41 _ --- __ 490 (25)
28 444 Seafields ________ 35 _ 33 _ 16 _ 49 _ 50 _ 56 _ 36 _ 44 _ 46 _ 26 _ 52 _ 43 __ 486 (26)
29 437 snowstreams______ -- _ 54 _ 29 _ 36 _ 57 _ 50 _ 28 _ 46 _ 46 _ 66 _ 16 _ 25 __ 453 (29)
30 407 delw_____________46 _ 56 _ 66 _ 34 _ 75 _ -- _ 26 _ 21 _ 47 _ 13 _ 23 _ --- __ 407 (31)

31 394 H2UMrsRobinson __ 41 _ 36 _ 22 _ 44 _ 39 _ 10 _ 32 _ 25 _ 46 _ 57 _ 48 _ 26 __ 426 (30)
32 279 cherryghost ______ 71 _ 58 _ 21 _ -- _ --- _ --- _ 42 _ 38 _ 49 _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 279 (32)


Three or four entries __

Hammer Archer _________ 63 _ 60 _ --- _ 46 _ 46 _ -- _ --- _ -- _ -- _ --- _ -- _ --- __ 215 (33)
Bejubby _______________ -- _ 46 _ 44 _ 40 _ 25 _ -- _ --- _ -- __ 21 _ -- _ -- _ --- __ 176 (34)
Rebelbrowser ___________ 52 _ 14 _ 33 _ 55 _ -- _ -- _ --- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ --- _ --- ___ 154 (36)
dexter647 ______________ -- _ 32 _ --- _ 63 _ -- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ 54 _ -- _ -- _ --- ___ 149 (37)
Gonzo _________________________ 30 _ -- _ 52 _ -- _ --- _ --- _ 53 _ -- _ -- _ 39 ___ 174 (35)
Rocky Bay _____________ 43 _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ 37 _ 20 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 100 (40)

____________________________________________

Two entries

jambofc 71 (Jan), 54 (Feb) ____ 125 (38)
nabber 69 (Feb) 38 (Mar) _____ 107 (39)
Quixelles 64 (June) 19 (July) ____83
Keith96 52 (July), 18 (Aug) _____70
MiNdGaM3 30 (Jan) 32 (Feb) ____62
clintondaly 50 (June) 10 (July) __ 60

(one entry)

Deep Easterly 69 (Jan)
Danno 65 (Jan)
howlinwolf 59 (Jan)
Tazio 58 (June)
E. Fudd 55 (Feb)
Deank 53 (Feb)
"plan comes together" 53 (Jan)
singers 53 (Aug)
baraca 50 (Feb)
blackbird 49 (Aug)
cogsy 46 (Dec)
NIALL_D 35 (Jan)
Lumi 35 (Dec)
BEASTERLY 34 (Jan)
musicmental85 .. 32 (Nov)
Gothwalk 26 (Dec)
Pauloconn 10 (Nov)
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Boards.ie Award -- best 10 scores

So, whle Con Sensus has high score in the main award, Tae laidir finishes in first place, with Harps and kindredspirit in the medal positions. Congrats! Dasa29 gets honorable mention for his 4th place finish, Omicron was 5th.


MTC Award -- best total scores

Tae laidir managed to beat Con Sensus in this category, and it was the same order of finish with Harps and kindredspirit in second and third (not counting Con). Once again, well done! Bsal and dasa29 rounded out the top five.

Omicron, Jpmarn and Pauldry all moved up fairly well in December based on their last month scores. Nilhg did better in the MTC category as his two dropped scores were higher than most (37 his lowest score, second only to Tae laidir with 38 as lowest score).

As reported last month, Bsal was the Four Seasons Award winner.