May 2015 Boards forecast contest

I am the grim reaper, storing your forecasts before you can edit in rainfall data from Saturday. And here they be:

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ max rain 24h,loc'n,date
_______________________________________________mm________________

john mac __________ 12.0 _ 22.0 _ -1.5 _ 110 _ 104 __ 18.0 Knock, 18th
JoePublic __________ 11.9 _ 22.9 _ -2.9 _ 119 _ 109 __ 29.9 Casement, 5th
DOCARCH _________ 11.8 _ 23.6 _ -1.9 _ 097 _ 105 __ 23.5 Casement, 2nd
kindredspirit _______ 11.7 _ 24.0 _ +0.5 _ 135 _ 090 __ 30.0 Claremorris, 15th
jd ____(-15)________11.7 _ 23.1 _ -2.1 _ 110 _ 100
omicron ___________ 11.5 _ 23.0 _ -1.0 _ 095 _ 110 __ 28.0 Valentia, 15th
Tae laidir __________ 11.5 _ 21.5 _ -0.5 _ 130 _ 092 __ 25.0 Mace Head, 2nd
waterways _________ 11.4 _ 26.0 _ -1.9 _ 100 _ 113 __ 37.0 Cork, 28th
MrSkinner _________ 11.4 _ 23.1 _ +0.6 _ 103 _ 104 __ 34.1 Valentia, 2nd
Lumi ______________11.4 _ 22.8 _ -1.9 _ 121 _ 089 __ 28.5 Sherkin Island, 17th
lostinashford _______ 11.4 _ 21.0 _ -0.7 _ 118 _ 099 __ 32.5 Valentia, 2nd
Harps ___(-5)_______11.3 _ 23.9 _ -1.7 _ 110 _ 110 __ 32.0 Valentia, 17th
Rikand ____________ 11.0 _ 25.0 _ -1.0 _ 110 _ 110 __ 25.0 Phoenix Park, 25th

Con Sensus ________ 11.2 _ 22.9 _ -1.7 _ 110 _ 102 __ 28.0 Valentia, 2nd

Bsal ______________ 11.0 _ 22.9 _ -1.7 _ 105 _ 103 __ 28.0 Ballyhaise, 17th
Dasa29 ____________11.0 _ 22.0 _ -1.5 _ 110 _ 120 __ 22.0 Valentia, 5th
Dacogawa _________ 10.9 _ 23.6 _ -1.6 _ 105 _ 095 __ 32.5 Valentia, 10th
200motels _________ 10.9 _ 22.6 _ -2.3 _ 121 _ 090 __ 24.5 Claremorris, 26th
Rameire ___________10.8 _ 22.8 _ -1.5 _ 107 _ 097 __ 17.0 Gurteen, 2nd
Schadenfreudia _____ 10.6 _ 21.0 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 095 __ 25.5 Valentia, 19th
mickger844posts ____ 10.5 _ 22.0 _ -2.0 _ 075 _ 121 __ 15.5 Valentia, 21st
Sunflower3 _________10.5 _ 21.2 _ -1.9 _ 115 _ 098 __ 26.0 Valentia, 20th
M.T. Cranium _______10.4 _ 23.0 _ -2.5 _ 120 _ 090 __ 35.5 Claremorris, 23rd
Jpmarn____________ 10.4 _ 22.5 _ -1.2 _ 145 _ 085 __ 40.0 Shannon, 16th
Pauldry ___________ 10.4 _ 21.0 _ -1.8 _ 096 _ 104 __ 30.0 Cork 2nd
______________________________________________________________

later entries will be edited in, please note that bonus answers that are later than this post will be subject to max of 7 pts if 2nd is selected, and date/loc'n will not score, but if not, just the standard late penalty will apply and the bonus will be scored equally to others.

Con Sensus is (edit) mean of 12th and 13th ranked value (median of 24) except for bonus which is 12th ranked (median of 23) with the most frequent location and date. The 23 votes for location of maximum rainfall so far are:

Valentia ___ 9
Claremorris _3
Casement __ 2
Cork ______ 2
Ballyhaise, Gurteen, Knock, Mace Head, Phoenix Park, Shannon, Sherkin Island __ 1 each

Distribution of dates is of course skewed towards 2nd by short term forecasts so this is the way it broke down:
1st __ --
2nd __ 6
5th __ 2
10th __ 1
15th __ 2
16th __ 1
17th __ 3
18th __ 1
19th __ 1
20th __ 1
21st __ 1
23rd __ 1
25th __ 1
26th __ 1
28th __ 1


Thanks for entering and good luck !

After the first seven days ...

IMT _ 9.3 C

PRC _ 344% of normal

SUN _ 72% of normal

Probably no contenders for MAX or MIN, that I noticed anyway.

By the end of today, would expect that enough rain will have fallen to guarantee a normal amount for May and so we're now working on the amount above normal.

IMT actual value is 9.9 C -- reduce all scores by one. If that's the only edit needed, the table will stand and I will just take off the point in the annual table.

I could work out the actual precip but might as well save the bother and wait for the Monthly Summary since I am sure that the scoring there won't change.

Looks as though the 30th failed to overcome the 2nd with Finner coming the closest on the 30th but less than either the 2nd or 3rd produced. So the bonus will stand, if the MS has some other amount from a station we don't normally see in the tables, I will be ignoring that.

Final scoring table for May 2015


FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ max rain 24h,loc'n,date
_______________________________________________mm________________

__ Confirmed values __9.9_20.1_-0.8_174_082___38.5 Cork 2nd

Jpmarn____________ 20 _ 12* _ 16 _ 15* _ 09 __ 08 + 0 ______ 80
lostinashford _______ 10 _ 17* _ 19 _ 11* _ 07 __ 07 + 1 ______ 72
Tae laidir __________ 09 _ 14* _ 17 _ 13* _ 08 __ 04 + 1 ______ 66
Pauldry ____________20 _ 17* _ 10 _ 02* _ 06 __ 06 +2+2 ____ 65
Sunflower3 _________19 _ 15* _ 09 _ 10* _ 07 __ 04 + 0 ______ 64
M.T. Cranium _______20 _ 09* _ 03 _ 12* _ 08 __ 08 + 0 ______ 60
Rameire ___________ 16 _ 11* _ 13 _ 09*_ 07 __ 02 + 1 ______ 59
Dacogawa _________ 15 _ 07* _ 12 _ 08* _ 07 __ 07 + 0 ______ 56
200motels _________ 15 _ 12* _ 05 _ 12* _ 08 __ 04 + 0 ______ 56
Schadenfreudia _____ 18 _ 17* _ 00 _ 10* _ 07 __ 04 + 0 ______ 56
Lumi ______________10 _ 11* _ 09 _ 12* _ 09 __ 05 + 0 ______ 56

Con Sensus ________ 12 _ 11* _ 11 _ 10* _ 06 __ 05 + 1 ______ 56

Dasa29 ____________14 _ 13* _ 13 _ 10* _ 02 __ 03 + 0 ______ 55
Bsal ______________ 14 _ 11* _ 11 _ 08* _ 06 __ 05 + 0 ______ 55
Rikand ____________ 14 _ 02* _ 18 _ 10* _ 04 __ 04 + 0 ______ 52
john mac __________ 04 _ 13* _ 13 _ 10* _ 06 __ 02 + 0 ______ 48
omicron ___________ 09 _ 09* _ 18 _ 02* _ 04 __ 05 + 0 ______ 47
kindredspirit ________07 _ 03* _ 07 _ 14* _ 08 __ 06 + 0 ______ 45
MrSkinner _________ 10 _ 09* _ 06 _ 06* _ 06 __ 07 + 1 ______ 45
Harps ___(-5)_______11 _ 06* _ 11 _ 10* _ 04 __ 06 + 0 __ 48-5=43
mickger844posts ____ 19 _ 13* _ 08 __ 00 _ 02 __ 01 + 0 ______ 43
waterways _________ 10 _ 01* _ 09 _ 05*_ 04 __ 08 + 1 ______ 38
JoePublic __________ 05 _ 11* _ 00 _ 11* _ 05 __ 05 + 0 ______ 37
DOCARCH _________ 06 _ 07* _ 09 _ 03* _ 05 __ 03 + 1 ______ 34
jd ____(-10)________08 _ 08* _ 07 _ 10* _ 06 __ not in __ 39-10=29
_____________________________________________________________

* minimum progression scores for MAX and PRC.
Since jd had both a late penalty and sat out the bonus (probably thinking it had already been settled) I changed his late penalty to 10 from 15 as otherwise it was more like 20-25.

Table reposted with slight differences in scoring from earlier version ... took one point off all IMT scores, then adjusted SUN to fit the higher value of 82% (I had scored from 80% so it made a positive difference to some but not all scores).

Updated annual scoring table and four seasons spring totals to follow.

Congrats to (1) Jpmarn, (2) Lostinashford, and (3) Tae Laidir with Pauldry and sunflower3 close to the third place score also.

Four Seasons Award -- combined scores winter and spring

Checked back to February for the winter seasonal scores. Just a reminder, Con Sensus scores as if "he" was a contestant but that score does not drop anyone who falls below that mark. Interesting to note that Con has fallen off from 3rd highest to a tie for 6th highest, so we are making some headway apparently.

FORECASTER __________ winter __ spring ___ TOTAL to date

Rikand _________________ 10 ____ 1 _____ 11
Jpmarn _________________ 0 ____10 _____ 10

Con Sensus ______________ 6 ____ 3 ______ 9

dacogawa _______________ 1 ____ 6 ______ 7
DOCARCH _______________ 7 ____ 0 ______ 7
M.T. Cranium _____________0 ____ 7 ______ 7
jd ______________________6 ____ 0 ______ 6
Harps ___________________5 ____ 0 ______ 5
Lostinashford ____________ 0 ____ 5 _______5
kindredspirit _____________ 4 ____ 0 ______ 4
mickger844posts__________ 4 ____ 0 ______ 4
Pauldry _________________ 0 ____ 4 ______ 4
Bsal ____________________2 ____ 1 ______ 3
MrSkinner _______________ 0 ____ 3 ______ 3
Lumi ___________________ 0 ____ 2 ______ 2
sunflower3 ______________ 1 ____ 0 ______ 1
omicron _________________1 ____ 0 ______ 1
Joe Public _______________ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1
Tae laidir ________________0 ____ 1 ______ 1
200motels _______________0 ____ 1 ______ 1
__________________________________________________

Interesting to note that nobody has scored 2 or more in both seasons, apart from Con.