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28-02-2020, 13:18   #1
handlemaster
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coronavirus and the property effect

It is becoming more apparent that the coronavirus is going to have a big effect on the world economy. Trump is saying nothing to worry about in the US as he would but it surely is going to get worse there. Factories are already running down on supplies from China. Coming back to our tiny island this will play into the jobs market , financing etc. The stock market is taking a hit with an economist in the FT stating the markets dus far have been far to complacent. IT will be interesting to see the housing affect.
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28-02-2020, 13:45   #2
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Such an Irish question - the world is about to end, but what about property prices?

Really horrible and dark f'd up analysis:

The virus appears to have disproportionately negative impacts on the elderly. It is not uncommon for big homes in good locations to be lived in by one or two retirees who bought it 40 years ago. Sometimes these homes are even empty because the owner now lives in a nursing home.

If the virus were to mirror Wuhan's experience, a large number of these properties would be sold or occupied by one of their children + grandkids. There could be a big release of pressure on the housing market.
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28-02-2020, 13:56   #3
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Such an Irish question - the world is about to end, but what about property prices?

Really horrible and dark f'd up analysis:

The virus appears to have disproportionately negative impacts on the elderly. It is not uncommon for big homes in good locations to be lived in by one or two retirees who bought it 40 years ago. Sometimes these homes are even empty because the owner now lives in a nursing home.

If the virus were to mirror Wuhan's experience, a large number of these properties would be sold or occupied by one of their children + grandkids. There could be a big release of pressure on the housing market.
Or...it will affect our young urban flatsharing population disproportionately as they coming into infected humans as they shop for avocados and vinyl records while the middle aged and elderly board themselves up at home!

The main thing is that it is likely to slow global trade for a few months, with a knock on effect on the economy. Maybe everyone should consume less and it would be good for the world and the environment.
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28-02-2020, 14:06   #4
handlemaster
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Originally Posted by PhoenixParker View Post
Such an Irish question - the world is about to end, but what about property prices?

Really horrible and dark f'd up analysis:

The virus appears to have disproportionately negative impacts on the elderly. It is not uncommon for big homes in good locations to be lived in by one or two retirees who bought it 40 years ago. Sometimes these homes are even empty because the owner now lives in a nursing home.

If the virus were to mirror Wuhan's experience, a large number of these properties would be sold or occupied by one of their children + grandkids. There could be a big release of pressure on the housing market.
It's the property section get over yourself.I'm well able to have a conversation on the global impact and how each country is prepared to not for this virus and how peoples lives will be affected. Again its possible to have many different levels of conversation about a topic.


Not mention in what I said about old people dying etc. . Global trade, jobs etc was my angle.. who's the dark one.
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28-02-2020, 14:21   #5
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It's the property section get over yourself.I'm well able to have a conversation on the global impact and how each country is prepared to not for this virus and how peoples lives will be affected. Again its possible to have many different levels of conversation about a topic.


Not mention in what I said about old people dying etc. . Global trade, jobs etc was my angle.. who's the dark one.
Way to over react!

The colon clearly implies that my analysis is the dark f'd up one.
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28-02-2020, 17:45   #6
handlemaster
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Way to over react!

The colon clearly implies that my analysis is the dark f'd up one.
It's the virus it does that
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29-02-2020, 04:08   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by handlemaster View Post
It is becoming more apparent that the coronavirus is going to have a big effect on the world economy. Trump is saying nothing to worry about in the US as he would but it surely is going to get worse there. Factories are already running down on supplies from China. Coming back to our tiny island this will play into the jobs market , financing etc. The stock market is taking a hit with an economist in the FT stating the markets dus far have been far to complacent. IT will be interesting to see the housing affect.
China expects to be back producing at full capacity in production within 2 weeks
Since restarting production 2 weeks ago 70% of backlog exports have been produced and 50% has been shipped.
China Steel production growth increased in January and February, they know account for over half the worlds steel output.
world markets will stabilize.
If property prices are to be a affected it wont be over night it can take 12 months too 18 moths for this to filter true.
Jobs that will be hardest hit will be turisum sport and leisure .
Infesters fear people wont consume enough goods.
Who knows really only time will tell.
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04-03-2020, 06:36   #8
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https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/...-39012713.html


The fed reduced the bench mark interest rate.. investors will get nervous.. then anytbingncan happen. China hasn't been open with all that has happen either I suspect
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04-03-2020, 07:38   #9
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https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/...-39012713.html


The fed reduced the bench mark interest rate.. investors will get nervous.. then anytbingncan happen. China hasn't been open with all that has happen either I suspect
European markets recoverd again yesterday a little,there seems to be a better acceptance of the situation in European trader's than in America
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04-03-2020, 14:12   #10
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The markets will only be one factor, the survival of the eldery might have a bigger impact on downward trends.
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04-03-2020, 15:25   #11
handlemaster
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European markets recoverd again yesterday a little,there seems to be a better acceptance of the situation in European trader's than in America
Time.will tell. Markets can take a while to digest the facts and the economical stats are not out there just yet. But what we could face is lack of supply and then on the back of that lower consumption which in turn leads to lower employment drag which in turn leads to lower demand..
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04-03-2020, 15:50   #12
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It is very early days yet. There is no vaccine available. If things get to the stage of layoffs and business failures with airlines, hotels, transport operators and others vulnerable to reduced movement and tourism, the knock-on effects will be defaults on bank loans and rents. If bad debts increase in the banks it will reduce the willingness of banks to fund asset purchases even further. Add to that, the fact that governments may have to spend a lot of money on containment measures. If large numbers of conferences are cancelled hotels will be severely impacted and may well fail. Only businesses with very large cash reserves will be able to survive. Irish banks are too weak to keep business propped up until normality returns. The government is far too heavily borrowed to even consider compensation packages.
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05-03-2020, 07:10   #13
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I suspect that in the short term the market will simply stall with little or nothing being sold. Whether there is a long term effect on house prices will depend on how long the crisis lasts and it’s overall economic impact.
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13-03-2020, 17:30   #14
handlemaster
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The Coronavirus is going to have a very big effect on world markets and employment follows suit. Prices will and the very least stall for several months
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13-03-2020, 17:38   #15
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As a property owner I hope prices do not fall but if they do any house I might want to trade up to will surely fall as well so cost to change will not widen......although I am not in the market for trading up or down at the moment ..........so I, possibly selfishly, hope they dont fall as all my siblings and close friends own property and nobody is in the market I know.

Anyone else I am not close enough with to wish a fall so they can buy.

But as a property buyer after the last crash in 08 (I bought in 2010) it gives a great opportunity for those to buy if there is a crash but there will probably be a credit crunch again then so catch 22

Only way for property prices to fall is in a reduction in demand, either by many either dying or emigrating and taking pressure off and letting supply catch up with or exceed demand

On the flipside, housing output may contract as a result of this virus and crisis which will put upward pressure on prices

One might cancel the other out, who knows?

My suggestion is no, property prices will not fall significantly unless there is a massive and prolonged recession which I doubt, possibly a bad year for economy in 2020 but expect a bounce back very soon
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