Saturday 23 March

The Rooster · 22-03-2019 11:30pm #1

I’m going to start this thread, because I’ve a question and I need to be educated!

Bangor 5.10
A 5 runner race, and if you judged it only by OR and weights, then My Murphy with a rating of 140 would be a strong favourite.
However, the current betting would suggest that the other four runners are all reasonable closely matched (between 15/8 and 7/2), whereas Murph is the rank outsider at 33/1.

The favourite carries the same weight as Murph but is rated 102.

Clearly I am missing something in thinking Murph is super value!
Anyone be good enough to enlighten me please as to why he’s the dud of the field despite the rating?

NaiveMelodies · 22-03-2019 11:44pm

Can't see Foxtail Hill losing tomorrow in Newbury, 4s looks a gift.

Atletico worth a pop at 40s in the 3rd at Lingfield. Form of his penultimate race franked in good fashion earlier. Race might be a bit deep but will be winning a race very soon imo.

NaiveMelodies · 22-03-2019 11:45pm

The Rooster wrote: »

I’m going to start this thread, because I’ve a question and I need to be educated!

Bangor 5.10
A 5 runner race, and if you judged it only by OR and weights, then My Murphy with a rating of 140 would be a strong favourite.
However, the current betting would suggest that the other four runners are all reasonable closely matched (between 15/8 and 7/2), whereas Murph is the rank outsider at 33/1.

The favourite carries the same weight as Murph but is rated 102.

Clearly I am missing something in thinking Murph is super value!
Anyone be good enough to enlighten me please as to why he’s the dud of the field despite the rating?

Looks like he hasn't gone a yard in a while.. 3 years since he hit the lofty heights of his handicap rating and I could be wrong but don't think those ratings should be over analysed against their hunter chase and P2P form.

abarkie · 23-03-2019 1:44am

3.35 Kelso

Seemore lights

Looks harsh for a 6lb rise, but probably worth E/w support, will await my fellow Boards member for the inside track

Newbury

No doubt Noel Fehily horses will see support

BumperD · 23-03-2019 6:53am

Watched scarlet pimpernel walk through ring not high enough bid (110k) last week Thursday runs today I’ve had a bet 11/4. GL

ballyhagan · 23-03-2019 7:07am

BumperD wrote: »

Watched scarlet pimpernel walk through ring not high enough bid (110k) last week Thursday runs today I’ve had a bet 11/4. GL

What race?

HarshOstrich · 23-03-2019 10:08am

abarkie wrote: »

3.35 Kelso

Seemore lights

Looks harsh for a 6lb rise, but probably worth E/w support, will await my fellow Boards member for the inside track

Newbury

No doubt Noel Fehily horses will see support

Not confident he'll get the trip. Its a big step up to be fair. Said they would enter as the prize money is so good.
As I said before he wouldn't be a very confident owner but I done him e/w on the back of his last run as he would probably have won.
I like the jockey change, James revely coming back from France for 2 rides for the trainer, both are worth backing an e/w double perhaps.

RivetingRoger · 23-03-2019 10:57am

Duca de Thaix looks a huge price to me
Jessies yoke is as predictable as the lotto, couldnt have it

Kauto · 23-03-2019 12:12pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Duca de Thaix looks a huge price to me
Jessies yoke is as predictable as the lotto, couldnt have it

Best of luck at that price. Has had a tough sesson and looked like he had enough last time. Same for Elliott's other yoke. Will be laying both.

IAMAMORON · 23-03-2019 12:14pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Duca de Thaix looks a huge price to me
Jessies yoke is as predictable as the lotto, couldnt have it

I actually think that Benruben is worth a fiver at the prices, he looks the most unexposed.

ON ZEE BRIDLE · 23-03-2019 12:39pm

GIven George Bowen Ew in 3.45 at Lingers 12/1: Don't really follow the English sand rats so have no idea of this lad is any use!!

BumperD · 23-03-2019 12:47pm

ballyhagan wrote: »

What race?

Last in thurles

longshotvalue · 23-03-2019 1:10pm

Nothing standing out today so I've gone for a 6 point total spend on an EW lucky 15 as follows EW .

There is extra place on these race in plenty of bookies apart from the first race so needs to be done with one of those

EW Lucky15

2:40 New Tazka 33/1

2:05 New Ziga Boy 12/1

3:15 New Etamaine Du Cochet 8/1

2:25 Kelso Irish Roe 14/1