Grand National 2019 Aintree

del roy · 26-03-2019 5:25pm

2009 maybe thats the only one.

Nulty · 26-03-2019 5:29pm

Nulty wrote: »

Others I've backed which I'll talk about more later:

Vintage Clouds @ 33s & 25s
Pairofbrowneyes @ 33s & 40s
A Toi Phil @ 100/1
Yala Enki @ 66/1

Vintage Clouds is a peculiar horse in that it's hard to have confidence that he'll actually win a race. He's won two over fences from 16 starts. The latest came at the start of the season which was when I got the confidence in the horse to decide to back him for this.

He's placed in both a Welsh (4th 2017/18) and Scottish national (3rd 2018), goes on any ground, he's maturing now and the right age for a Grand National. Sue Smith trained the winner a few years ago in Auroras Encore. For each way terms he's very reliable having placed in 11 of 16 chases, just pulled up and fell once each. You don't really want a horse who falls going into the National but his falls came as a novice over two years ago so I'm not worried about his jumping particularly, but there's always a chance. He's highly likely to get the trip and may even excel over it.

He's also 5lbs well in according to his new rating after his second in the Ultima. I wouldn't put anyone off backing him at his current price despite the concern about his ability to finish of races strongly, I'm hoping the longer distance of the National and the softer ground from Ayr will see him in ideal conditions.

handsfree2 · 26-03-2019 7:32pm

Nulty wrote: »

Vintage Clouds is a peculiar horse in that it's hard to have confidence that he'll actually win a race. He's won two over fences from 16 starts. The latest came at the start of the season which was when I got the confidence in the horse to decide to back him for this.

He's placed in both a Welsh (4th 2017/18) and Scottish national (3rd 2018), goes on any ground, he's maturing now and the right age for a Grand National. Sue Smith trained the winner a few years ago in Auroras Encore. For each way terms he's very reliable having placed in 11 of 16 chases, just pulled up and fell once each. You don't really want a horse who falls going into the National but his falls came as a novice over two years ago so I'm not worried about his jumping particularly, but there's always a chance. He's highly likely to get the trip and may even excel over it.

He's also 5lbs well in according to his new rating after his second in the Ultima. I wouldn't put anyone off backing him at his current price despite the concern about his ability to finish of races strongly, I'm hoping the longer distance of the National and the softer ground from Ayr will see him in ideal conditions.

I think this is a good shout.

yaboya1 · 26-03-2019 7:46pm

del roy wrote: »

5.15pm – Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m3f110y ITV

2018 Winner: TIGER ROLL (10/1 odds)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Davy Russell

Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 28 Runnings)
· 27/28 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
· 27/28 – Officially rated 137 or higher
· 26/28 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
· 25/28 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
· 23/28 – Aged 9 or older
· 23/28 – Returned a double-figure price
· 22/28 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
· 21/28 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
· 22/28 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
· 19/28 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
· 16/28 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
· 17/28 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
· 17/28 – Aged 10 years-old or younger
· 15/28 – Placed favourites
· 14/28 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
· 15/28 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
· 10/28 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
· 9/28 – Trained in Ireland (inc 6 of the last 13 years)
· 6/28 – Ran in a previous Grand National
· 5/28 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
· 6/28 – Won last time out
· 2/28 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
· 2/28 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/28 – Ridden by Leighton Aspell
· 0/28 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

Since 1978, 124 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
10 of the last 11 winners were having their first start in the race
15 of the last 20 winners were bred in Ireland
Only 2 horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961
The last 7 year-old or younger to win was back in 1940
12 of the last 22 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
3 of the last 10 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
9 of the last 16 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
5 of the last 17 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
Only four 8 year-olds have won the last 25 renewals
Just one past winner or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 34 years (76 have attempted)
20 of the last 22 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
The last horse to win back-to-back Nationals was Red Rum in 1974

Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (16 Year)

15/16 – Had won over at least 3m previously
14/16 – Ran less than 50 days ago
14/16 – Officially rated 137 or higher
13/16 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
9/16 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
9/16 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
9/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/16 – Experienced the National fences
6/16 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
6/16 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
5/16 – Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
4/16 – Won their last race
3/16 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
2/16 – Won by the McCain yard

Couple of contradictory stats in there and at least one just plain wrong. Don't know where you sourced them, but they're unreliable.

del roy · 26-03-2019 7:49pm

Contradictory I can't help with as stats and trends tend to be gathered that way but which one is wrong I will get back to you with it.

yaboya1 · 26-03-2019 7:55pm

del roy wrote: »

Contradictory I can't help with as stats and trends tend to be gathered that way but which one is wrong I will get back to you with it.

No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969.

No need to get back to me.
Vics Canvas was 3rd in 2016.

Itziger · 26-03-2019 7:57pm

Errah, some of those are meaningless or near to it. How many bleedin' horses younger than 7 run in the National? And how many older than 13?!

2/28 were trained by McCain and 2/28 by Twiston Davies.......... So???????

Now, I'm not knocking trends, but those need a bit of editing to be fair.

del roy · 26-03-2019 8:02pm

Lads
I can only bang them up here, upto you what you do with them or how you feel they help you.

yaboya1 · 26-03-2019 8:03pm

Only 4/25 8yos have won.
I'd argue that's a positive although it's written like it's the opposite.
If you tally up how many 8yo's have run against the other winning age groups in that time (9, 10, 11, 12), I'd say it's a fairly impressive strike rate.
Also the fact that 3 of them came in the last 4 years suggests it's anything but a negative.

Generally these statistics are written based on the writer's opinion, e.g. 4/10 ran in a handicap last time out as if it's a good thing. However that means that 6/10 didn't!

del roy · 26-03-2019 8:06pm

yaboya1 wrote: »

Only 4/25 8yos have won.
I'd argue that's a positive although it's written like it's the opposite.
If you tally up how many 8yo's have run against the other winning age groups in that time (9, 10, 11, 12), I'd say it's a fairly impressive strike rate.
Also the fact that 3 of them came in the last 4 years suggests it's anything but a negative.

Generally these statistics are written based on the writer's opinion, e.g. 4/10 ran in a handicap last time out as if it's a good thing. However that means that 6/10 didn't!

True but a
lot of the race conditions have changed over the last 8/9 years so you have to take that on board

yaboya1 · 26-03-2019 8:11pm

del roy wrote: »

True but a
lot of the race conditions have changed over the last 8/9 years so you have to take that on board

I know, and not having a go at you, but that is definitely worded like being an 8yo is not good when the opposite now seems to be the case. What happened in the mid nineties is irrelevant when looking at the race now. It used to be the case you could fairly confidently rule out anything rated 150+ given the weight they'd to carry. Now you almost need a 150 rated horse just to get into the race!

Bangor Billy · 26-03-2019 8:22pm

There is no point in looking at 28 year trends. The race today bears no comparison to the race it was in 1991.

Gavin "shels" · 26-03-2019 8:47pm

del roy wrote: »

I'm lazy I need someone to go thru it all and tell me which one.

Was my question to you

longshotvalue · 26-03-2019 8:48pm

Grand National

I’ve had Valseur Lido in mind for this race all year, since re watching last year’s race and realizing how well he ran. He travelled as well as anything to the 2nd last but didn’t stay on the heavy ground with a big weight. He hasn’t looked great this year but to my eye has been gradually improving each time. His best run was in the national trial behind Rathvinden. He then went to Cheltenham for the Brown Advisory, which is never going to be far enough. He travelled well without ever being in the race and was actually beginning to stay on when a big mistake 3 out finished any small chance he had.
He has dropped a huge 12lbs since his run in the national last year and I just can’t get it out of my head that on seeing that run last year he will surely be ready for a big run. The more I watch it the more I think you’d have to try and get him here of a good mark for a shot, given he isn’t really going to win anymore grade 1s.
Anyway he is 100/1 with 6 places with paddy power and 100/1 5 places ¼ place with bet365, and I’d be knocking them over at those prices. In my view if he avoids carnage on the first circuit we’ll be right in the firing line 3 out and that’s all you can ask of a 100/1 Shot.

3 Points EW NRNB 100/1 6 places paddy Power or 5 places Bet365 ¼ place.

del roy · 26-03-2019 9:21pm

Gavin shels wrote: »

Was my question to you

Ya got me, Gav.

del roy · 26-03-2019 9:22pm

Lads
These stats are from. Geegeez.co.uk

Nulty · 27-03-2019 11:13am

Pairofbrowneyes hasn't been tested over an extreme staying distance and in fact needed to win his last race in order to qualify for the National. He'd won the same race (Leinster National) at Gowran last season but it was just under 3m, but he won it again this year off 7lbs higher. He's now officially 10lbs well in for the National and given the confidence in the horse going into last years Irish National I would be expecting a big effort from the horse at Aintree.

He comes into the race off the back of a career best performance and has all of the improvement under his belt without a penalty. He goes on any ground winning on Heavy to Good. The main worries about the horse have to be the fact he fell in the irish national last year. The horse just didn't jump, it looked like a brain freeze and something I wouldn't be too worried about as he's a very reliable jumper the rest of the time.

He's by Luso who's had a few horses run in the National and some that didn't get home like Hear The Echo. He was out of a Strong Gale mare who's progeny have had surprisingly few placers and no winners in the national for a staying sire and now the course is two furlongs shorter than that year. Some others by Luso include Chicago Grey (PU) who was a poor slow jumper and Priests Leap (14th twice).

He's likely to be ridden by P Townend with Walsh likely to opt for Rathvinden.

Based on his rating, his latest performance, and the confidence behind him in the Irish National there he has to be considered as a candidate to win the race.

Dr. Bre · 27-03-2019 11:42am

What’s the crack with pleasant company these days - went close last year

RivetingRoger · 27-03-2019 11:52am

They should throw Yorkhill in...............just for the craic like!!!!!!Mad bastard that he is!!

WicklowBrave · 27-03-2019 12:51pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

They should throw Yorkhill in...............just for the craic like!!!!!!Mad bastard that he is!!

I'd say the owner has had enough of his horses dying in the last month.

Copper_pipe · 27-03-2019 12:52pm

Bristol De Mai out. Weights up 4 pounds.

Nulty · 27-03-2019 2:03pm

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Bristol De Mai out. Weights up 4 pounds.

Thought that would happen. Tiger Roll will have to carry 11-5, something I think will only diminish his chances, leaving the current price even worse in terms of value.

The Mig · 27-03-2019 2:29pm

Could that mean Keith Donohue rides Tiger now? Missed the ride last year due to the weight

Earendil · 27-03-2019 2:35pm

Nulty wrote: »

Thought that would happen. Tiger Roll will have to carry 11-5, something I think will only diminish his chances, leaving the current price even worse in terms of value.

He's such an admirable beast and his Cheltenham performance was scintillating...but circa 4-1 is madness for a race where alot of horses get taken out through absolutely no fault of their own.

IAMAMORON · 27-03-2019 5:02pm

The biggie for me is when or if JP takes out Anibale Fly?

IAMAMORON · 27-03-2019 5:13pm

11 st 5 lbs is doable by a good horse. Don't Push it ( 11st5lbs and Many Clouds ( top weight ) have both carried over 11 stone in the past ten years.

Since they took the height off the fences the race has become a different animal in my opinion. Rule the World won as a maiden chaser also. It is not as hard to win as it used to be.

In saying that winning it with a big weight cannot be easy. You are always up against something in off a handy weight.

The likes of Captain Redbeard, General Principle ( no pig either ) and SingleFarmPayment are now getting in with over a stone in hand over the likes of Tiger Roll.

Something gets in at this stage off a nice weight and the others just won't compete. The 3 / 1 about Tiger roll is a loadacrap.

piplip87 · 27-03-2019 5:16pm

Yorkhill the lunatic to go to the Melling Chase and beat Altior. Impossible you say but that bloody horse is likely to do anything.

IAMAMORON · 27-03-2019 6:38pm

It is actually ridiculous the amount of fancies the O'Leary's have. Are any bookies giving a price on a Gigginstown winner?

They can strictly get General Principle into the race by pulling out there own horses. Surely the likes of Outlander, Don Poli and Subeutenant get taken out to let an Irish National winner have his chance ?

I doubt very much Michael gives two ****s which one wins it as long as he gets his airtime?

Nulty · 27-03-2019 11:46pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

11 st 5 lbs is doable by a good horse. Don't Push it ( 11st5lbs and Many Clouds ( top weight ) have both carried over 11 stone in the past ten years.

Since they took the height off the fences the race has become a different animal in my opinion. Rule the World won as a maiden chaser also. It is not as hard to win as it used to be.

In saying that winning it with a big weight cannot be easy. You are always up against something in off a handy weight.

The likes of Captain Redbeard, General Principle ( no pig either ) and SingleFarmPayment are now getting in with over a stone in hand over the likes of Tiger Roll.

Something gets in at this stage off a nice weight and the others just won't compete. The 3 / 1 about Tiger roll is a loadacrap.

Tiger Roll is obviously an exceptional horse, but Don't Push It and Many Clouds were proper staaying chasers, built like brick ****houses. Tiger Roll is not built to carry 11-5 4m over 30 fences...but he might still manage it.

I'd want bigger than 10/1 to find out though.

Just to clarify, Many Clouds wasn't top weight when he won the race, he arried top weight the year after - when he didn't win.

Motivator · 28-03-2019 12:40am

Nulty wrote: »

Pairofbrowneyes hasn't been tested over an extreme staying distance and in fact needed to win his last race in order to qualify for the National. He'd won the same race (Leinster National) at Gowran last season but it was just under 3m, but he won it again this year off 7lbs higher. He's now officially 10lbs well in for the National and given the confidence in the horse going into last years Irish National I would be expecting a big effort from the horse at Aintree.

He comes into the race off the back of a career best performance and has all of the improvement under his belt without a penalty. He goes on any ground winning on Heavy to Good. The main worries about the horse have to be the fact he fell in the irish national last year. The horse just didn't jump, it looked like a brain freeze and something I wouldn't be too worried about as he's a very reliable jumper the rest of the time.

He's by Luso who's had a few horses run in the National and some that didn't get home like Hear The Echo. He was out of a Strong Gale mare who's progeny have had surprisingly few placers and no winners in the national for a staying sire and now the course is two furlongs shorter than that year. Some others by Luso include Chicago Grey (PU) who was a poor slow jumper and Priests Leap (14th twice).

He's likely to be ridden by P Townend with Walsh likely to opt for Rathvinden.

Based on his rating, his latest performance, and the confidence behind him in the Irish National there he has to be considered as a candidate to win the race.

He’ll want an ease in the ground, Willie won’t risk him if there’s not signifcant rain ahead of next weekend.

Grand National 2019 Aintree

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