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24-04-2020, 22:00   #46
pad199207
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Sky was very threatening here this evening but nada
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27-04-2020, 23:44   #47
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After the front passes through on Weds looks like convection development as the cold uppers spread in over Ireland. Should produce some heavy showers Good preliminary lapse rates and signs of decent CAPE potential .Timing coinciding with peak diurnal heating. Better convection where there are good gaps in the cloud. Could get a few thunderstorms if the convection gets going early enough.




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28-04-2020, 23:12   #48
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A lot of interesting detail in Convective Weathers forecast. Been an age since there has been a modest to decent bit of potential for convection and lightning if somewhat sparse. From a weather watchers perspective an interesting spell of weather over the next few days after the extended calm spell.






Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 29 Apr 2020 - 05:59 UTC Thu 30 Apr 2020

ISSUED 20:26 UTC Tue 28 Apr 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A broad LOW threat level has been issued to cater for the very low risk of isolated lightning strikes that may occur with various weather features during this 24 hour forecast period. However, for most places the risk is considered very low, and hence the vast majority of the large LOW threat area will remain void of any lightning.

At least two organised occlusions, and associated bands of rain, will sweep northwards and eastwards across the British Isles during this period, one during Wednesday daytime, and a second primarily during the evening and night. In both cases, these features will initially be quite active given strong forcing aloft, with heavy bursts of rain and embedded deep convection likely as they approach southern Ireland and southwest England, but as the forcing aloft shears away to the northwest, the bands of rain are expected to gradually weaken as they track farther northeast, eventually stalling somewhat over Scotland while decaying. In general, the risk of lightning will be greatest with these features as they approach southern Ireland/southwest Britain (20-25%), the risk then reducing as they push farther north and east (5-10%). CAM guidance suggests meso-vortices may develop along the rear edge, especially located near the most intense convection, and this may aid the potential for damaging gusts of wind (50-60mph possible over open waters and exposed Celtic Sea coasts). Multi-model guidance suggests Pembrokeshire and along the coast of Cardigan Bay could see some strong gusts of wind during Wednesday morning, for example.

In-between these two occlusions there will likely be a window of cloud clearance coinciding with peak diurnal heating, particularly in a swathe from central Ireland across Wales and central southern England. With the mid-levels having cooled considerably by this stage, this may yield a couple hundred J/kg CAPE - more especially over Ireland, with greater proximity to the upper cold pool. As a result, some convection and a few showers could develop, although the pronounced mid-level dry layer will act as a lid, restricting the depth of convection and hence limiting the overall lightning risk. Nonetheless, a 10-15% risk of lightning may exist over Ireland during the afternoon hours, although the second occlusion will already be arriving in southern Ireland by mid/late afternoon.

Behind the second occlusion, a pronounced shortwave will approach the Celtic Sea and SW England on Wednesday night, driving deep convection and numerous showers which may evolve into a comma-type feature by the end of the night. Given some reasonable speed and directional shear, strong forcing aloft and 300-500 J/kg CAPE, some sporadic lightning seems possible. A low-end SLGT (30%) has been issued to cater for this risk. Once again, some damaging gusts of wind could occur near exposed coasts and some hail is also likely in the most intense cells. Ironically, this type of setup is more akin to autumn/winter rather than mid/late spring!
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29-04-2020, 21:23   #49
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Recent lighting strike showing up in Longford.Any reports from there?
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29-04-2020, 22:58   #50
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Recent lighting strike showing up in Longford.Any reports from there?
Few rumbles, heavy rain and saw one flash from this
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30-04-2020, 00:19   #51
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Probably too early in the year for anything severe but a fairly classic Spanish Plume setup on tonights ECMWF, doubt it'll amount to much but nice to be back in convective season again nonetheless

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30-04-2020, 02:06   #52
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Too early for a true plume.
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30-04-2020, 09:17   #53
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[QUOTE]
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Probably too early in the year for anything severe but a fairly classic Spanish Plume setup on tonights ECMWF, doubt it'll amount to much but nice to be back in convective season again nonetheless
Ah....if only it was July or August! We'd be on storm watch.
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30-04-2020, 17:52   #54
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Few strikes near Birr and Drogheda
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30-04-2020, 20:52   #55
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Slim pickings but some activity today.

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30-04-2020, 21:09   #56
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Big convective showers streaming in from the W/ NW tomorrow . Potential there for thunderstorms and heavy local showers crossing the northern half of the country cold uppers giving good lapse rates and decent CAPE more so in the Northern third of the country. Could get hail showers also. Nice in the sunshine but generally feeling cool in the wind. Showers in the Southern half of the country also buy not as heavy the further S you get.









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01-05-2020, 14:05   #57
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Some sparks reported around Cavan in the last while. Fairly small but hefty hail showers being blown through at the mo

Last edited by PukkaStukka; 01-05-2020 at 14:14.
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01-05-2020, 14:30   #58
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Nearly sure heard thunder over d13 about 5 mins ago
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01-05-2020, 14:44   #59
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Nearly sure heard thunder over d13 about 5 mins ago
You probably did. I heard similar over Malahide estuary and Blitzortung confirms it
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01-05-2020, 15:45   #60
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Torrential Hail in Kildare.
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