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27-09-2019, 00:12   #1
Jpmarn
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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

Starting a new thread on what is a tropical Hurricane Lorenzo which is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean south of the Azores. More details can be found in the Hurricane season Thread. I am giving Lorenzo it's own thread because at present models are bringing the Storm towards Ireland. Models at present are keeping out to sea with only minimal impact on Ireland at the moment. The latest model run are bringing the storm a bit closer to the west coast. If the storm in it’s extra tropical state should have a direct hit on Ireland it could generate wind gusts of over 160 Kmh. The storm is due nearest us next Thursday or Friday.








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Last edited by Meteorite58; 28-09-2019 at 08:27. Reason: Mod Note Update
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27-09-2019, 00:26   #2
Gaoth Laidir
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The rapid intensification this morning happened just as it was passing into an area of very low wind shear (5 knots), as seen in this sequence of images from 00Z, 06Z and 12Z (far right, east of 40W, south of 20N). It's since been passing into that area of slightly higher shear, and the SHIPS model has it up to 20-25 knots late tomorrow.

The latest forecast track has storm intensity around 90 knots at 18Z on the 1st, about 300 NM southwest of the Azores. Looks like a direct hit for them a few days later but most likely in a much-weakened state by then.








Last edited by Gaoth Laidir; 27-09-2019 at 07:02.
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27-09-2019, 07:08   #3
M.T. Cranium
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Even with the weakening it would still be in the cat-2 range possibly, or higher end cat-1 when passing through the Azores. Latest GFS has its centre coming no closer to Ireland than 22 deg W and I would estimate peak gusts on west coast around 60-70 km/hr if the current maps verified. But there would likely be some large swells and surfers might be getting excited by the prospects of this outcome. Still plenty of time for this to veer off the predicted track though.
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27-09-2019, 07:28   #4
Gaoth Laidir
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Two recon aircraft are due to leave Barbados for Lorenzo in a few hours.

REMARK: THE NOAA 43 P-3 AND THE NOAA 49 G-IV WILL FLY 9- AND
8-HR RESEARCH MISSIONS, RESPECTIVELY, INTO AND AROUND HURRICANE
LORENZO TOMORROW. BOTH WILL DEPART TBPB AT 27/1200Z.
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27-09-2019, 07:35   #5
JanuarySnowstor
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Icon gives a direct hit with Ireland. Ecm much closer to us also than gfs
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27-09-2019, 07:36   #6
JanuarySnowstor
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Actually ECM IS A DIRECT HIT ALSO! !
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27-09-2019, 08:42   #7
Jpmarn
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Just looking at the gfs on neweather.tv. As Lorenzo approach our part of the Atlantic Ocean it is going to break up partially during its extra tropical transformation. It's energy is going to spawn some secondary storm depressions giving a relatively high risk of stormy weather over the next 2 weeks or so.
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27-09-2019, 08:48   #8
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The ECMWF track has been moving it further East, last 5 runs here.

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27-09-2019, 09:09   #9
Davaeo09
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Been living on Sherkin for the summer and planning on moving back to Kilkenny this coming week.

Had planned on 2 trips up and back to get all my stuff across on the ferry.
If those latest models come through i will be rethinking my plans incase of ferry cancelation
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27-09-2019, 10:04   #10
Graces7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Davaeo09 View Post
Been living on Sherkin for the summer and planning on moving back to Kilkenny this coming week.

Had planned on 2 trips up and back to get all my stuff across on the ferry.
If those latest models come through i will be rethinking my plans incase of ferry cancelation
Wise idea anyways as equinoctial gales cause havoc. I am well stocked here so whatever happens, no worries. Just got more supplies in .

west mayo offshore island
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27-09-2019, 10:09   #11
FutureGuy
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How does this compare to the last hurricane that came our way.

It's nuts that we are even using the words "hurricane", "Ireland" and "again" in same sentences.
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27-09-2019, 10:10   #12
pauldry
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I think this storm will miss to our West but in the days after id be concerned that it may drag up further distubances of heavy rain and strong winds.

However with a washout of August, wet September and wet start of October we must be due a dry month soon.

On graphs on Met Eireann rainfall seems to equalize itself over the course of the year
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27-09-2019, 10:21   #13
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Just the usual disclaimer that this will not be a hurricane at our latitude, but may have hurricane-force winds.

The ECMWF ensembles show that slight shift eastwards in the 00Z run versus yesterday's 12Z. The majority still offshore but some creaping eastwards and also to Iberia. Still no real change in net intensity at our latitude.





This morning's SHIPS LGEM has it at around 70 knots on reaching the Azores, with shear at 42 knots and increasing at that stage.
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27-09-2019, 13:17   #14
Jpmarn
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Looking at Met.ie Atlantic charts and it shows Lorenzo affecting southern counties in the early hours of next Friday morning. But it looks a bit weaker and would generate no more than Status Yellow warning winds according to the present chart.
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27-09-2019, 13:34   #15
Gaoth Laidir
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Thar he blows

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