Property Market 2017

cnocbui · 12-12-2017 1:51pm

spaceHopper wrote: »

I've my tinfoil hat on, prices in the UK are dropping, prices here have gone to high and affordability is down, together with high rents affecting savings power for a deposit.

I think prices will start to fall, think about it houses don't have a new model they are mostly a second hand commodity why do they jump 25% in a couple of years. I look at shankill some very good houses in good estates aren't selling.

House prices in the UK are only falling because of Brexit. The UK, particularly London had previously been attracting significant levels of overseas investors, which was a principal driver of price increases. Since the UK committed Hara-Kiri, the pound has fallen dramatically and all those foreign investors have had their fingers well and truly burnt as the value of their 'investments' has fallen. Without the foreign demand, the property market has normalised, no doubt some foreign investors may well have put their investments on the market in anticipation of further falls in the £ ahead.

I think there is scant chance of property prices falling unless demand abates considerably or some miracle occurs to bring building costs down.

Henbabani · 12-12-2017 2:00pm

cnocbui wrote: »

spaceHopper wrote: »

I've my tinfoil hat on, prices in the UK are dropping, prices here have gone to high and affordability is down, together with high rents affecting savings power for a deposit.

I think prices will start to fall, think about it houses don't have a new model they are mostly a second hand commodity why do they jump 25% in a couple of years. I look at shankill some very good houses in good estates aren't selling.

House prices in the UK are only falling because of Brexit. The UK, particularly London had previously been attracting significant levels of overseas investors, which was a principal driver of price increases. Since the UK committed Hara-Kiri, the pound has fallen dramatically and all those foreign investors have had their fingers well and truly burnt as the value of their 'investments' has fallen. Without the foreign demand, the property market has normalised, no doubt some foreign investors may well have put their investments on the market in anticipation of further falls in the £ ahead.

I think there is scant chance of property prices falling unless demand abates considerably or some miracle occurs to bring building costs down.

agree, in the short term it will miracle if the prices will fall.
But, they can still moderate at 3-4% per year level which is still good if you looking 2-3 years backwards.

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 12-12-2017 2:07pm

Henbabani wrote: »

agree, in the short term it will miracle if the prices will fall.
But, they can still moderate at 3-4% per year level which is still good if you looking 2-3 years backwards.

The current esri prediction was + 20% over 3 years based on a high growth rate. With brexit looking a bit touch and go I don't see a high growth rate in Ireland in the near future. I think 4-5 % per year is realistic, assuming the central bank or the government don't so something insane.

Henbabani · 12-12-2017 2:28pm

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Henbabani wrote: »

agree, in the short term it will miracle if the prices will fall.
But, they can still moderate at 3-4% per year level which is still good if you looking 2-3 years backwards.

The current esri prediction was + 20% over 3 years based on a high growth rate. With brexit looking a bit touch and go I don't see a high growth rate in Ireland in the near future. I think 4-5 % per year is realistic, assuming the central bank or the government don't so something insane.

yeah 4-5% is realistic.
By the way the cso publish the october index - 12.1% year to year increase.
down from 12.8% in september.
probably this year will end on 10-10.5% increase and far away from some of the predicters of 13-15%

The Student · 12-12-2017 2:47pm

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

The current esri prediction was + 20% over 3 years based on a high growth rate. With brexit looking a bit touch and go I don't see a high growth rate in Ireland in the near future. I think 4-5 % per year is realistic, assuming the central bank or the government don't so something insane.

Would have to agree with this. We will see moderate growth in house prices. Second hand house prices will not decrease as people will see what properties have sold for via the Property Price Register and will hold out to match these figs. Interestingly I would expect certain areas where no social housing exists (previously owned council property sold off etc) will see increases higher than those with some council properties purely because of the stigma attached to social housing.

New builds will sell for higher than their secondhand counterparts purely because of higher building regs etc. It will be interesting to see how or if developers try to get out of the social housing obligations again.

Unfortunately I don't think the State have finished meddling in the property market. Unless they build a significant number of social housing/affordable housing. Personally I think the State wants out of providing social housing altogether.

Ush1 · 12-12-2017 3:05pm

cnocbui wrote: »

Not much, as in an order of magnitude less. A 150 ㎡ passive house would cost €360 to heat for a year using daytime electricity at €0.16 per Kwh. That is for a building compliant with the German Passivhaus standard. You could easily heat such a house for free, more likely at a profit, using a small crypto miner or the built in heat pump most such houses employ.

How is running a heat pump free or going to generate profit? Heat has to come from somewhere. You still have heating is the point.

The_Conductor · 12-12-2017 3:47pm

Henbabani wrote: »

yeah 4-5% is realistic.
By the way the cso publish the october index - 12.1% year to year increase.
down from 12.8% in september.
probably this year will end on 10-10.5% increase and far away from some of the predicters of 13-15%

The massive thing I'm taking from the October is the reinforcement of the decoupling of Dublin from the rest of the country- and the increasing moderation being evident in Dublin prices.

3,906 units were sold in October- a reasonable enough volume- however, the number of second hand sales seems to be accelerating again (3,250 second hand sales, 656 new builds).

Also- the damn peak property commentary- Dublin is still 25% below its peak, the rest of the country- 30%...........

cnocbui · 12-12-2017 5:35pm

Ush1 wrote: »

How is running a heat pump free or going to generate profit? Heat has to come from somewhere. You still have heating is the point.

Badly worded - the heat pump will cost money to run - €360 or so, a crypto miner should generate heat for free or return a profit.

You still have heating but it is minimal, you certainly wouldn't need a wood burning stove or central heating. wouldn't surprise me if my estimate was way over as I haven't factored for heat input from activities like cooking.

LincolnHawk · 12-12-2017 11:13pm

Spin the passive house stuff off to a separate thread

Thargor · 12-12-2017 11:17pm

10%+ price increases in Dublin every year or even 7/8/9% at current prices are more than a lot of people house hunting at the minute earn in a year after tax and definitely more than they can save, wages are still stagnant.

Taylor365 · 12-12-2017 11:30pm

How out of touch are prices in relation to rents?

Seems like the last while, the market is leaning towards buy and hold or filling a house/apartment illegally with as many bodies as possible. Houses with 10-12 bodies, 2 per room with only the kitchen sharing type of stuff.

Outside of that, average yield looks to be down to around 4-6%. Then after taxes and expense, 0% nada. :pac:

handlemaster · 13-12-2017 10:23pm

https://m.myhome.ie/residential/dublin-15/property-for-sale?maxprice=300000&minbeds=3&page=1&sortOrder=most recent

Still lots of three beds below 300k in dublin 15. No need to cry about property prices in dublin

LirW · 13-12-2017 10:26pm

Personally wouldn't be too keen on Tyrellstown, there are some badly built houses right in the flight path of Dublin airport. Viewed a few there and never came back after I could hear a plane taking off when all windows were closed. It's a fairly depressing place.

G.G.Smiley · 13-12-2017 11:56pm

LirW wrote: »

Personally wouldn't be too keen on Tyrellstown, there are some badly built houses right in the flight path of Dublin airport. Viewed a few there and never came back after I could hear a plane taking off when all windows were closed. It's a fairly depressing place.

Not to mention the escalating gang activity which is censored from discussion on most forms of media.

scouserstation · 14-12-2017 12:37am

G.G.Smiley wrote: »

Not to mention the escalating gang activity which is censored from discussion on most forms of media.

I think the problems with gang activity have been vastly over exaggerated, in fact i would class this neighbourhood as one of the quieter areas of Dublin 15 when compared to places like Mulhuddart, Hartstown, Corduff and parts of Clonsilla where crime rates have been historically consistent

The_Conductor · 14-12-2017 9:06am

handlemaster wrote: »

https://m.myhome.ie/residential/dublin-15/property-for-sale?maxprice=300000&minbeds=3&page=1&sortOrder=most recent

Still lots of three beds below 300k in dublin 15. No need to cry about property prices in dublin

300k- for small three beds that you couldn't swing a cat in.
Is someone who is capable of accessing a loan capable of paying for one of these- going to want to live in one of them?
I've nothing against D15- or Lucan- or Tallaght (well, the general areas are fine- like anywhere though they have the odd dodgy estate or no-go area)- however, I wouldn't classify any of these as 'desirable' areas (and I live in Lucan)- they are a home- however, they shouldn't command a premium simply by virtue of being D15, or Lucan or where-ever.......

300k- is a lot of money- and is not the sort of money that the average person can access. These areas are all being sold as desirable areas for the average person. The average person- is getting constantly pushed further and further out- and affordability- is constantly constricting. Something, somewhere, has to give. Its all well and good- pointing at supply and suggesting that as its still in constraint, prices will continue to increase. However, affordability is now a bottleneck- that up to perhaps a year ago- was further upstream as a constraint- than supply......... People cannot afford to buy where they are being suggested they should be in a position to buy.

Supply is an issue- certainly- but affordability- is now at least as big if not a bigger concern.

Cyrus · 14-12-2017 10:15am

The_Conductor wrote: »

300k- for small three beds that you couldn't swing a cat in.
Is someone who is capable of accessing a loan capable of paying for one of these- going to want to live in one of them?
I've nothing against D15- or Lucan- or Tallaght (well, the general areas are fine- like anywhere though they have the odd dodgy estate or no-go area)- however, I wouldn't classify any of these as 'desirable' areas (and I live in Lucan)- they are a home- however, they shouldn't command a premium simply by virtue of being D15, or Lucan or where-ever.......

300k- is a lot of money- and is not the sort of money that the average person can access. These areas are all being sold as desirable areas for the average person. The average person- is getting constantly pushed further and further out- and affordability- is constantly constricting. Something, somewhere, has to give. Its all well and good- pointing at supply and suggesting that as its still in constraint, prices will continue to increase. However, affordability is now a bottleneck- that up to perhaps a year ago- was further upstream as a constraint- than supply......... People cannot afford to buy where they are being suggested they should be in a position to buy.

Supply is an issue- certainly- but affordability- is now at least as big if not a bigger concern.

if affordability is the issue then by its own definition it will correct itself, if people cant afford the properties, they wont be bought, if they arent bought the prices will drop.

i don't think its an issue yet

The_Conductor · 14-12-2017 10:30am

Cyrus wrote: »

if affordability is the issue then by its own definition it will correct itself, if people cant afford the properties, they wont be bought, if they arent bought the prices will drop.

i don't think its an issue yet

Its not just affordability- though I would argue that the importance of affordability is leapfrogging the other issues in the supply chain.

At present- the length of time it takes to sell houses- is lengthening- we have commented on it (in relation to new developments) in this forum- and the latest DAFT report is saying the same thing about second hand properties.

We are seeing similar in the rental market.

Extrapolating shows that much of this- is happening in the most expensive parts of the market- however, the sheer volume involved- suggests its more widespread (though the CSO report suggests its a Dublin phenomenon that hasn't spread to the rest of the country (yet).

The point I, and others, are making- is while it is indisputable that we have supply side issues- sheer affordability issues- are rapidly trumping those issues (as per the lengthening time it takes to either sell or let a property). No one in their right mind can dispute that we need to vastly increase supply- however- if we can't shift the current limited supply in a fair and reasonable manner- then, it is too expensive for the markets at which it is being targetted.

At present- we are on the cusp of price falls in both the rental and resale markets- though this is not reflected in the new property market (thus far). This is where we now are. However- its market is not homogenous, its fragmented all over the place- and even looking purely at a Dublin versus the rest of the country profile- is hiding a myriad of local trends (such as the stalling in DLR that the media don't seem to have picked up on).

There is of course going to be an element of schadenfreude- when its the more expensive areas that are grinding to a halt- ahead of areas further out- however- its a trend that radiates outward- and is already apparent in the lesser affluent areas- and deepening..........

I'm seeing far more downsides to the overall market- than I am upsides- wholly ignoring the supplyside issues.

Cyrus · 14-12-2017 10:37am

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its not just affordability- though I would argue that the importance of affordability is leapfrogging the other issues in the supply chain.

At present- the length of time it takes to sell houses- is lengthening- we have commented on it (in relation to new developments) in this forum- and the latest DAFT report is saying the same thing about second hand properties.

We are seeing similar in the rental market.

Extrapolating shows that much of this- is happening in the most expensive parts of the market- however, the sheer volume involved- suggests its more widespread (though the CSO report suggests its a Dublin phenomenon that hasn't spread to the rest of the country (yet).

The point I, and others, are making- is while it is indisputable that we have supply side issues- sheer affordability issues- are rapidly trumping those issues (as per the lengthening time it takes to either sell or let a property). No one in their right mind can dispute that we need to vastly increase supply- however- if we can't shift the current limited supply in a fair and reasonable manner- then, it is too expensive for the markets at which it is being targetted.

At present- we are on the cusp of price falls in both the rental and resale markets- though this is not reflected in the new property market (thus far). This is where we now are. However- its market is not homogenous, its fragmented all over the place- and even looking purely at a Dublin versus the rest of the country profile- is hiding a myriad of local trends (such as the stalling in DLR that the media don't seem to have picked up on).

There is of course going to be an element of schadenfreude- when its the more expensive areas that are grinding to a halt- ahead of areas further out- however- its a trend that radiates outward- and is already apparent in the lesser affluent areas- and deepening..........

I'm seeing far more downsides to the overall market- than I am upsides- wholly ignoring the supplyside issues.

I think people are taking poor properties over priced taking time to sell as a sign of a slow down, anything in a reasonable condition, in a desirable area is still selling very quickly.

in my own neck of the woods several new small in fill estates have been built, most of the houses are the guts of a million euro (give or take 100k for aspect, garden size etc) and they are selling. Similarly for reasonably priced second hand stock (relatively).

Some of the stuff selling for 700k plus in blackrock is mind boggling and needs about 200k spent on it to make a home of it.

Affordability is a self correcting issue, and if its an issue as you are saying them you will see it in decreased achieved prices.

it hasnt happened in my neck of DLR yet

LirW · 14-12-2017 10:54am

The thing with affordability is though that if prices come down, they'll only come down so far that the next people on top of the lower bracket will be able to afford it. There is now a stage where there is such little supply for the sub 400k bracket - where the average FTB falls in - that everything else is too expensive for them. If prices fall, then only so far that the people with the highest budget in that sub 400k bracket will be able to buy it. Which are a good few people again.
So it still leaves a huge amount of people out.

Same with rental really. The rents are pretty damn high now, if they come down then only so far to meet the budget of the top of the next bracket.

I hope you understand what I mean.

The_Conductor · 14-12-2017 11:10am

I understand fully what you mean.
It is being reflected in the market though- where first time buyers as a percentage of purchasers- are in freefall, and landlords have almost, with the exception of institutional investors, abandoned the market.

So- yes, what you're saying *is* being reflected in the market- however, whats happening is non-first-time-buyers are taking up the slack (at the moment anyway)- its not that prices are falling and becomming more affordable for a larger cohort of FTBs.

Non-FTB'ers are being managed- primarily with the insistence on higher deposits- and the changes in the number of exemptions for non-first time buyers. I.e. official policy is to try and get people 'on the property ladder' (regardless of whether they are buying property that will suit their long term needs, or not).

With the government- it really is a case of too many hands spoiling the broth- there are too many different bodies/agencies/Departments/CB rowing in and meddling- and the half baked cake that is resulting- is an insult to everyone, absolutely everyone..........

I am not in favour of a complete laissez faire approach to the market- however- the current situation where you have various bodies and agencies competing and stabbing one another in the back- has to stop.

The joker in the pack in all of this- is factors wholly outside of our control- such as ECB interest rate policy. If/when interest rates start to increase- this will throw the cat among the pigeons. We already have a tacit agreement to call a halt to QE by next September. QE has pumped the equivalent of 2 trillion Euro into the European economy over the past decade- and pushed interest rates to their absurdly low levels. This is acknowledged to have resulted in asset price bubbles (some very obvious ones are currently in the media- such as the frothy bitcoin markets etc- however, even standards such as gold- are up over 10% year on year- and the yields on government bonds- are at historically unprecedented levels).

This is wholly aside from Brexit- and other 'known-unknowns' (as Dan Quayle and/or George Bush put it).

The downsides out there- are staggering- and we are blundering around like fools in the dark- but we don't want the party to end...........

With our levels of personal and public debt- Ireland is almost uniquely going to be impacted by the withdrawal of QE and the 'normalisation' of interest rates (from 2019 onwards). This is alluded to in the Commission/UK statement- which puts a question mark over the 11 billion that the UK potentially have an interest in (in Irish and Ukrainian loans from the EDB) which will come due in future years up to 2032. They are being reclassified as questionable assets (though the UK did add a reassuring sentence that they did not view Irish loans as anything other than top tier loans).

The international institutions are ringing alarm bells- local media are choosing to ignore the international warnings.

Browney7 · 14-12-2017 2:03pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

300k- for small three beds that you couldn't swing a cat in.
Is someone who is capable of accessing a loan capable of paying for one of these- going to want to live in one of them?
I've nothing against D15- or Lucan- or Tallaght (well, the general areas are fine- like anywhere though they have the odd dodgy estate or no-go area)- however, I wouldn't classify any of these as 'desirable' areas (and I live in Lucan)- they are a home- however, they shouldn't command a premium simply by virtue of being D15, or Lucan or where-ever.......

300k- is a lot of money- and is not the sort of money that the average person can access. These areas are all being sold as desirable areas for the average person. The average person- is getting constantly pushed further and further out- and affordability- is constantly constricting. Something, somewhere, has to give. Its all well and good- pointing at supply and suggesting that as its still in constraint, prices will continue to increase. However, affordability is now a bottleneck- that up to perhaps a year ago- was further upstream as a constraint- than supply......... People cannot afford to buy where they are being suggested they should be in a position to buy.

Supply is an issue- certainly- but affordability- is now at least as big if not a bigger concern.

Who really cares though? The situation as it stands suits pretty much everyone except a large portion of people under the age of 35 (give or take). Who cares about long-term strategic planning to avoid a sh1tstorm in five/10 years when there's a probable election in 2018? Give a few fivers a week out to your voting base and you're laughing.

Negative equity accidental landlords can see the exit door in sight on their boom purchases/"investments" that are probably nearing positive equity when you factor in capital repayments.
Landlords property values have doubled since 2012/13. Government can now levy more property tax if they so choose although this might cause a humanitarian crisis for people with valuable houses. Revenue are taking in a fair chunk of income tax from skyrocketing rental income. Banks' arrears black holes are becoming less of a problem. Hell, even existing mortgage holders are able to renegotiate interest rates on better LTVs. Who knows what'll happen when the chickens come home to roost.

Taylor365 · 15-12-2017 9:42am

I'm off to Galway lads!

https://bidx1.com/auction/property/23616?keyword=&lotnumber=&typeid=0&countyid=14&_v=1&AuctionDate=2017-12-13

The_Conductor · 15-12-2017 10:21am

Taylor365 wrote: »

I'm off to Galway lads!

https://bidx1.com/auction/property/23616?keyword=&lotnumber=&typeid=0&countyid=14&_v=1&AuctionDate=2017-12-13

There is so much wrong with that house- yes, its cheap, but its cheap for very good reasons.

LirW · 15-12-2017 10:52am

The_Conductor wrote: »

There is so much wrong with that house- yes, its cheap, but its cheap for very good reasons.

Well, if he has the money to counter these problems it's good on him, can probably make this a nice home with some blood, sweat and tears.
I assume, he didn't buy it blind, right? RIIIIGHT?!

The_Conductor · 15-12-2017 10:57am

LirW wrote: »

Well, if he has the money to counter these problems it's good on him, can probably make this a nice home with some blood, sweat and tears.
I assume, he didn't buy it blind, right? RIIIIGHT?!

God only knows.
It has a children's school crossing right outside the window- and is next door to the school- you'd never have a moments peace in the place. There are some things money can fix, there are some it can't- such as the location and access to/from the property.
I'd turn it down if you offered it to me gratis- however, obviously it was worth 16k to someone else.

LirW · 15-12-2017 11:05am

Unfortunately some people have a desperate need of changing their living situation, like having kids and needing a place to stay. That was the reason why we bought, I couldn't cope living with my in-laws anymore and they are more than lovely people. Some are willing to take huge compromises for their freedom and that on a tiny budget.

We'll never know but let's just hope the person gets happy there, it's hard enough as it is.

Noddy33 · 15-12-2017 2:51pm

Hi All,
Apologies if this is the incorrect thread but just looking for some first time buyer advice.After about 8months of looking hard I have just recently paid my booking deposit on a house and now in process of getting solicitor contracts drawn up. I am in my early 30's and am a single buyer. My mortgage loan is €150,000 and I was fortunate enough to find a property at the right price that meant I didnt have to touch my 'contingency fund'.
The house comes fully furnished with dish washer,beds,washing machine etc. My question is bar any additional furniture etc that i wish to purchase to give house a more personal feel what other items do I need to consider(ie house insurance etc??) And also what sort of costs would I be looking at for these additional items?
I have included solicitor costs and stamp duty in my budget so they are not oversights. Any other advice for a newly first time buyer?

Taylor365 · 15-12-2017 4:02pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

There is so much wrong with that house- yes, its cheap, but its cheap for very good reasons.

Ah yea. I presume another 30-40k investment to bring it up to living standards.

Alkers · 15-12-2017 4:26pm

The_Conductor wrote:

There is so much wrong with that house- yes, its cheap, but its cheap for very good reasons.

Not much detail on the add, what's wrong with it. 16k doesn't seem like a bad price?

LirW · 15-12-2017 4:37pm

One thing that stands out is that there might be issues with the border of the land. The house stands into the footpath. Also it is seriously right next door of a big school, so parking might be an issue because parents are insane when it comes to school parking.
But if it was bought cash, which can be quite likely, a personal loan of 40k can take you quite far when you are prepared to do some DIY.

Henbabani · 18-12-2017 9:19am

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/parking-space-rule-scrapped-in-bid-to-speed-up-delivery-of-city-apartments-36416270.html
[font=Georgia, serif]Developers will no longer face the requirement to provide car parking spaces in city centre apartment blocks.[/font]

Bob24 · 18-12-2017 9:31am

Henbabani wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/parking-space-rule-scrapped-in-bid-to-speed-up-delivery-of-city-apartments-36416270.html
[font=Georgia, serif]Developers will no longer face the requirement to provide car parking spaces in city centre apartment blocks.[/font]

I doubt this is a game changer. Once you have the land you can build an underground car park. The problem is getting the land in this first place, and then the overall construction cost.

Henbabani · 18-12-2017 9:54am

Bob24 wrote: »

Henbabani wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/parking-space-rule-scrapped-in-bid-to-speed-up-delivery-of-city-apartments-36416270.html
[font=Georgia, serif]Developers will no longer face the requirement to provide car parking spaces in city centre apartment blocks.[/font]

I doubt this is a game changer. Once you have the land you can build an underground car park. The problem is getting the land in this first place, and then the overall construction cost.

Agree but getting underground cost money(sometimes a lot) and takes time, which means - more money.

s4uv3 · 18-12-2017 10:35am

Noddy33 wrote: »

Hi All,
Apologies if this is the incorrect thread but just looking for some first time buyer advice.After about 8months of looking hard I have just recently paid my booking deposit on a house and now in process of getting solicitor contracts drawn up. I am in my early 30's and am a single buyer. My mortgage loan is €150,000 and I was fortunate enough to find a property at the right price that meant I didnt have to touch my 'contingency fund'.
The house comes fully furnished with dish washer,beds,washing machine etc. My question is bar any additional furniture etc that i wish to purchase to give house a more personal feel what other items do I need to consider(ie house insurance etc??) And also what sort of costs would I be looking at for these additional items?
I have included solicitor costs and stamp duty in my budget so they are not oversights. Any other advice for a newly first time buyer?

House insurance and life cover/mortgage projection are both necessary for the mortgage.

At a rough guess, the extras could cost you an extra 1500ish on top of the solicitors fees for things like property registration, land registry search, property tax etc. Our solicitor paid all these but it doubled our bill to them.
If you need a valuation and a survey done that's another few hundred.
Prepare to be paying out all over the place for the next couple of months

seamus · 18-12-2017 10:39am

Underground car parks in the city centre can be a big headache, whether it's the cost of putting it together, security, flood protection, etc. A lot of developers would be quite happy to do away with it.

Long overdue too, there's been no need for residential parking spaces in the city centre for two decades. DCC have been putting serious caps on the parking spaces allowable for new commercial developments for years now, hopefully they start going the same way with residential.

LincolnHawk · 20-12-2017 9:29pm

Yes and a lot of the "residential" parking in the city centre is rented out to people parking for work

The_Conductor · 21-12-2017 8:17am

Honestly- I don't imagine the relaxation of the provision on parking requirements will really do anything at all. The Minister is on the record stating that he imagines management companies will provide access to internal storage units for apartments- and is considering making it a requirement in building regulations. Its simply swapping one requirement for another. We all know the perenial issues we have with underground carparking flooding- it happens at least annually in many units (even in large commercial units like the new St. Vincents Private Hospital- it flooded 4 times in the last 18 months).

A game changer would be a relaxation on the rules requiring units to have light on both sides- i.e. allowing the construction of 1 aspect or even no aspect units. Of course units like this wouldn't be of interest to a significant cohort of prospetive owners or tenants- presumably they would have to be significantly discounted to take this into account. Aspect rules- in conjunction with density rules- and ironically given the drive to specify minimum unit sizes- actually increasing the minimums- might make a big difference.

The current minimum sizes in force- have become a target rather than something to avoid- and has been pointed out- its impossible to convert any of them into wheelchair accessible units- as the areas, between passageways and minimum room sizes- quite simply don't fit.

Specifying minimum sizes- risks people seeing them as a target, rather than something to be avoided at all costs. It also means buyers are far more likely to find the accommodation they purchase is not suitable for their needs- than if they were to buy a better sized/better spec'ed unit.

Finally- we are all hearing the shrill commentary from Tom Parlon- and how VAT concessions on new buildings would be a game changer for First-Time-Buyers. I don't buy that argument- the first time buyers grant of yore- and the current tax rebate- were supposed to be game changers. They simply incremented the concession onto the price of units- often overnight- we've seen it happen several times over the last 25 years. If there are concessions- they have to apply in a manner that encourages building- without bumping up costs for buyers- and does so in a manner that explicitly encourages different resident types- family friendly apartments, singleton apartments, student accommodation, etc etc

Finally- a central plank that is also missing at the moment- is buy-in from the various local authorities. The manner in which planning permission for new student accommodation is verbotten by Dublin City Council- is scandalous. Height restrictions- are scandalous. Aspect rules- are not working. Densities- far higher densities in central locations (and possibly underground residential dwellings- there is no reason you couldn't go down a few levels in high demand locations)- rules have to be relaxed. Room sizes- the current rules- have turned many homes into miserable miserly affairs- with tiny rooms you can't swing a cat in. We need bigger rooms- that can be repurposed as people's circumstances change.

Eoghan Murphy- is young- and inherited a pretty impossible portfolio from Simon Coveney- but is making the most of what has landed on his plate. It behoves him to bring his civil servants and the local authorities together- and to come up with long term sustainable roadmaps for the various sectors of the market.

Idbatterim · 21-12-2017 11:06am

Excellent post above. I'm not going to quote it as it's quite long. Totally agree about the aspect rule. I am constantly bringing that up. David erlichhead of ires reit, has spoken how inefficient it is to build dual aspect. Talking about reducing sizes seeks outrageous to me, when there is unlimited height above! The height and dual aspect requirements in my opinion, aren't even up for discussion and if they aren't changed,

Agreed about the bat reduction etc, they will just pocket it. I said over a year ago, I hope the central bank don't allow increased borrowing, that would simply let the snakes off the hook. They now have to address building costs. Of course one of the other big issues is how much government cream off the cost of a new build.

Hike lpt and this could drop stamp duty etc and also cut the other government related fees related to building, that must've paid at time of purchase. Instead it would be spread over lifetime of the property ...

I really wonder about the efficiency of one beds in a way. Also many people don't like them Due to lack of flexibility. You could say apartments have to be two bedroom ie doubling bed space, floor space increase would only be 15-20% increase though. Bedrooms should be roughly 10 sq m minimum in my opinion.

The one standard I would be massively increasing is spud proofing in apartments. No pumps!

Say you have a 3 or 4 bed family apartment. I really think you need a seperate living room, away from the kitchen / living / dining space of current apartments...

There is also a massive demand for studios!

Samuel T. Cogley · 21-12-2017 12:50pm

Idbatterim wrote: »

The one standard I would be massively increasing is spud proofing in apartments. No pumps!

Spud proofing eh? Seems a very Irish issue to be sure. :pac:

21-12-2017 12:55pm

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Spud proofing eh? Seems a very Irish issue to be sure. :pac:

I wouldnt be at all surprised if this was Dublin City Council at it again :pac:

They have their priorities right -

Fliying the Palestinian flag

Fighting with Geldof

Spudproofing apartments

Property Market 2017

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