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coronavirus and the property effect

2456

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,295 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Slydice wrote: »
    Statement: Minister Murphy on Tenants impacted by Covid-19 crisis
    Published on Friday, 13 Mar 2020
    https://www.housing.gov.ie/housing/private-rented-housing/statement-minister-murphy-tenants-impacted-covid-19-crisis

    This is a classic case of the chickens coming home to roost. Landlords who were trapped under the rent cap for years, now have an opportunity to get rid of tenants. It is hard to see how any landlord trapped with an artificially low rent can now be asked to show forbearance. Had landlords been treated fairly and equitably up to now there might be some logic to the Minister's request.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    Slydice wrote: »
    Statement: Minister Murphy on Tenants impacted by Covid-19 crisis
    Published on Friday, 13 Mar 2020
    https://www.housing.gov.ie/housing/private-rented-housing/statement-minister-murphy-tenants-impacted-covid-19-crisis

    where has there ever been restraint from thus government with regards to landlords ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,400 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    This is a classic case of the chickens coming home to roost. Landlords who were trapped under the rent cap for years, now have an opportunity to get rid of tenants. It is hard to see how any landlord trapped with an artificially low rent can now be asked to show forbearance. Had landlords been treated fairly and equitably up to now there might be some logic to the Minister's request.

    Are you reading the same text as me? The government will suspend rent / evictions for those affected by the virus. It's coming. Everyone has to take a hit. This is about a collective national effort.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,295 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    Are you reading the same text as me? The government will suspend rent / evictions for those affected by the virus. It's coming. Everyone has to take a hit. This is about a collective national effort.

    The Dail would have to be recalled to debate legislation for that to happen. It won't. What will simply happen is that sittings of the RTB will be stopped and applications to the courts for possession orders will be stopped. Rent Allowance or something similar will be introduced to enable tenants pay their rent. There is no question of landlords simply having their rent confiscated nor being allowed to terminate the tenancy is of nonpayers.


  • Registered Users Posts: 448 ✭✭ebayissues


    What will happen to those in th hospitality sector who can;t pay rent? The brazillians, mexicans working in resturants, hotels, the delivroo drivers? Will the government assist them? Airline staff as well are in this bracket.



    If lockdown is increased, construction will stop, will workers get paid?




    Those working at the forefront in financial markets, if investors request funds due to whatsoever reasons, there will be redemptions which will mean liquidating positions especially for the L/S equity funds.


    The next 6 months will be interesting. If the effects of CV19 is contained, we can see a tempoaray slow, if not God help us all.


    Apologies for spelling issues.... keyboard sucks


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,558 ✭✭✭Ardillaun




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    Are you reading the same text as me? The government will suspend rent / evictions for those affected by the virus. It's coming. Everyone has to take a hit. This is about a collective national effort.

    Considering it takes a year or two or longer already I can't see it will make much difference.

    Be interesting if they suspend buy to let mortgages or indeed other business loans where income shrinks.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 72 ✭✭stinger31


    if i could like that comment a 100 times i would,......forebearance ......get real


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 540 ✭✭✭OttoPilot


    The Dail would have to be recalled to debate legislation for that to happen. It won't. What will simply happen is that sittings of the RTB will be stopped and applications to the courts for possession orders will be stopped. Rent Allowance or something similar will be introduced to enable tenants pay their rent. There is no question of landlords simply having their rent confiscated nor being allowed to terminate the tenancy is of nonpayers.

    Many people said that about Irish banks in 2008. How many evictions did we see in the end? One? Landlords won't have a leg to stand on because as you have noted the system wont help them. It will grind to a halt.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,310 ✭✭✭Pkiernan


    Given that it takes 18 months to evict a delinquent tenant, what extra protection is now needed exactly?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,506 ✭✭✭fliball123


    OttoPilot wrote: »
    Many people said that about Irish banks in 2008. How many evictions did we see in the end? One? Landlords won't have a leg to stand on because as you have noted the system wont help them. It will grind to a halt.

    There is not a chance they can ask one sector of society to wave away income due to them. If anyone is asked it will be the banks the government will have to step in and pay.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,558 ✭✭✭Ardillaun


    I’ve seen Covid’s effect on the economy discussed in Canada but not property prices, a particular Irish preoccupation.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,207 ✭✭✭The_Honeybadger


    Ardillaun wrote: »
    I’ve seen Covid’s effect on the economy discussed in Canada but not property prices, a particular Irish preoccupation.

    To be fair I’d say most people on this thread are planning on either buying or selling over the next 12 months so it’s very relevant to them and their families.

    There is almost no talk about property prices among most people, too preoccupied with school closures and trying to keep their elderly and infirm relatives alive


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,732 ✭✭✭BarryD2


    Ardillaun wrote: »
    I’ve seen Covid’s effect on the economy discussed in Canada but not property prices, a particular Irish preoccupation.

    Property prices here though are arguably a reflection of the real economy. So in that sense, it's a valid point. You'd think there'll be a stagnation in sales for a while, with lower selling prices for those that really need to sell. Uncertainty breeds uncertainty, so for those with the moolah and the confidence to spend it, maybe an opportunity.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,503 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    Ardillaun wrote: »
    I’ve seen Covid’s effect on the economy discussed in Canada but not property prices, a particular Irish preoccupation.

    Canadians are more concerned with the collapse in oil prices


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    You would have to think that:

    1) there will be no houses sold in the next 8-26 weeks with COVID
    2) new builds wont be commenced due to the uncertainty
    3) open houses etc in new builds wont be allowed
    4) who would actually decide today to sell their house next week unless they really had to
    5) house prices could go up, down or stay the same (as we dont know how long this will last, what the demand supply imbalance will be etc etc)
    6) the government will not have money to build houses (or buy social housing) for the foreseeable
    7) housing wont be a government priority until 2021


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,501 ✭✭✭✭Slydice


    let's see if I can break this up with headings:

    Minister Murphy statement on issues affecting the rental sector in relation to Covid-19
    Published on Saturday, 14 Mar 2020
    https://www.housing.gov.ie/housing/private-rented-housing/minister-murphy-statement-issues-affecting-rental-sector-relation
    The Government is very conscious of the additional pressures facing both landlords and tenants in relation to the Covid-19 crisis. Measures to combat the spread of Covid-19 may result in some workers being impacted either through a requirement for self-isolation, a confirmed medical diagnosis or a reduction in working hours. This may lead to some having a difficulty in paying their rent.

    This morning the Minister for Housing, Planning and Local Government Eoghan Murphy TD spoke with landlord representative groups the Irish Property Owners Association, Residential Landlords Association of Ireland and Irish Institutional Property. He is also engaging with tenant groups and this will continue over the coming days.

    “This morning, we discussed potential issues around the safety and security of tenancies and the challenges facing both landlords and tenants. We know that the majority of landlord-tenant relationships work well. Where there is open and early engagement and communication, issues such as those related to rental payments can be resolved,” Minister Murphy said.
    Landlords and Tenants
    “Tenants encountering difficulty with rent payments as a result of the crisis should in the first instance engage as soon as possible with their landlord. I would ask all parties to residential tenancies to exercise forbearance in this time of national crisis, particularly for those affected by Covid-19. I will continue my engagement with the sector in the coming days, in order to ensure that landlords and tenants are both protected during this difficult period. The situation will be kept under constant review.”

    The Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government is working with other Government departments preparing guidance on supports available for landlords and tenants.
    Employers urged to pay employees who cannot attend work
    The Government has urged all employers to support national public health objectives by continuing, as a minimum, to pay employees who cannot attend work due to Covid-19 illness or self-isolation the difference between the enhanced Illness Benefit rate and their normal wages.
    Supports for people who have lost employment or have had their hours reduced
    But there is also an economic impact arising from the present unprecedented circumstances. Where an employer due to a reduction in business has made their employees redundant then the Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection provides the normal range of income supports for people who have lost employment or have had their hours reduced. These include the following:
    • If the employee has been temporarily laid off due to a reduction in business they may claim a Jobseeker’s payment and they can apply online at www.mywelfare.ie;
    • Where the employer and employee arrange for the employee to work on a short-time basis e.g. 3 days on and 2 days off the employees can claim Short Time Working payment for the days they are not working (up to a maximum of three days per week);
    • If the employee works a minimum of 19 hours per week they may be able to avail of the Working Family Payment which provides income support to certain parents with children;
    • Where an employee does not qualify for any of these payments and has an income need they can apply for Supplementary Welfare Allowance, which is means-assessed.
    Services available for tenants and landlords in difficulty
    Minister Murphy added that services were available for tenants and landlords in difficulty through the Residential Tenancies Board and national housing charity, Threshold, which operates the Tenancy Protection Service.

    The Residential Tenancies (Amendment) Act 2019 also provides a number of key measures to provide greater security of tenure for tenants and underpin the operation of the Rent Pressure Zones (RPZs) which have been designated until the end of 2021. Over two thirds of all tenancies registered with the Residential Tenancies Board are now covered by Rent Pressure Zones.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    ....
    If the virus were to mirror Wuhan's experience, a large number of these properties would be sold or occupied by one of their children + grandkids. ...

    Do you have link to where you saw this...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,400 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    The Dail would have to be recalled to debate legislation for that to happen. It won't. What will simply happen is that sittings of the RTB will be stopped and applications to the courts for possession orders will be stopped. Rent Allowance or something similar will be introduced to enable tenants pay their rent. There is no question of landlords simply having their rent confiscated nor being allowed to terminate the tenancy is of nonpayers.

    So you won't be able to evict someone who isn't paying? I think we're debating semantics here!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    So you won't be able to evict someone who isn't paying? I think we're debating semantics here!

    It is very difficult to evictive as is


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,653 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    I plan on putting an offer on a house in the morning.
    Business as usual for me


  • Registered Users Posts: 259 ✭✭lcwill


    Here in Italy some building companies are still working but with very strict limits on numbers of people on site - I have a friend, an architect, managing the renovation of an apartment at the moment. He is only allowed one tradesperson in the apartment at any time because of the social distancing rules. Imagine how long it takes to do a big job one person at a time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 472 ✭✭utmbuilder


    The elephant in the room are housing associations with their new money after getting in the region of 400 million to buy new builds over the past 2 years.

    Leveraging these propertys for overseas secured loans will keep them going for a few more years.

    Meaning a 3 bed terrece in drogheda will still get a developer 265k

    Market is very artificial at the moment.


  • Registered Users Posts: 27 o2bearebel


    Alot of speculation here on individual house sales. What about new house launch prices ? Do you think they'll be adjusted downwards ? If so, I wonder how long that would take. I can't recall what happened during the last recession on that front.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    o2bearebel wrote: »
    Alot of speculation here on individual house sales. What about new house launch prices ? Do you think they'll be adjusted downwards ? If so, I wonder how long that would take. I can't recall what happened during the last recession on that front.

    There were almost no new house built. Hence the shortage. People couldn't get finance anyway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    I cant see the banks allowing mortgage drawdowns right now...? Anyone have any facts about the banks approving and releasing mortgages in the current climate.

    Coming from someone with mortgage approval but I'm now unemployed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 27 o2bearebel


    Zenify wrote: »
    I cant see the banks allowing mortgage drawdowns right now...? Anyone have any facts about the banks approving and releasing mortgages in the current climate.

    Coming from someone with mortgage approval but I'm now unemployed.

    We've a 10k deposit put down on a new development in Wicklow. Contracts were sent to our solicitor last week. Due to hear from our bank this week on final hurdle in mortage approval.. interesting times!

    I'm not sure if we should walk away for a year. We're trading up and a years rental will be inconvenience and 27k+ in rent.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,736 ✭✭✭lalababa


    JJJackal wrote: »
    You would have to think that:

    1) there will be no houses sold in the next 8-26 weeks with COVID
    2) new builds wont be commenced due to the uncertainty
    3) open houses etc in new builds wont be allowed
    4) who would actually decide today to sell their house next week unless they really had to
    5) house prices could go up, down or stay the same (as we dont know how long this will last, what the demand supply imbalance will be etc etc)
    6) the government will not have money to build houses (or buy social housing) for the foreseeable
    7) housing wont be a government priority until 2021

    Reply
    All your points are valid but I don't think they have much weight.
    1) why not?? nothing wrong with -meet EA for viewing....meet solicitor...meet bank manager...sign contract. Probably don't have to meet solicitor initially these days...actually can contract be posted emailed and signed at home or do you need solicitors witness?
    2)New builds would be set up to go and delaying them would just cost money, builders and most workers don't like sitting on their thumbs.
    3)open houses can open just not very open
    4)You want to sell house you put it on market....market hasn't fallen ....yet
    5)yes there is a bit of uncertainty...but so what
    6)hmmmm I don't know 'bout that
    7)hmmmm the same


  • Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    S&P500 down 20%, FTSE100 down 30% ish in last few weeks.
    Thousands of workers looking like being out of work and pubs closed.

    20% + drop in Irish house prices isn't unlikely as the prices were levelling off anyway.

    House prices will fall in line with stock market I reckon.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,426 ✭✭✭wirelessdude01


    o2bearebel wrote: »
    We've a 10k deposit put down on a new development in Wicklow. Contracts were sent to our solicitor last week. Due to hear from our bank this week on final hurdle in mortage approval.. interesting times!

    I'm not sure if we should walk away for a year. We're trading up and a years rental will be inconvenience and 27k+ in rent.

    Same here. Waiting for the legal stuff to be done and sign. Really think the banks will stall everything.


  • Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    ........... Really think the banks will stall everything.

    That might not be bad. You are likely set to sign at an all time price high since the 2007 peak in a time when hundreds of thousands of folk are looking at employment insecurity and cashflow in the economy will fall drastically.

    Food for thought.


  • Registered Users Posts: 330 ✭✭paul-2008


    Zenify wrote: »
    I cant see the banks allowing mortgage drawdowns right now...? Anyone have any facts about the banks approving and releasing mortgages in the current climate.

    Coming from someone with mortgage approval but I'm now unemployed.
    Mortgage funds released this morning.. doesnt seem to be any initial issues. Now to hope EA/Solicitor doesnt decide to shut down this week and we can close the sale


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    o2bearebel wrote: »
    Alot of speculation here on individual house sales. What about new house launch prices ? Do you think they'll be adjusted downwards ? If so, I wonder how long that would take. I can't recall what happened during the last recession on that front.


    New houses need to sell quickly due to the nature of the building industry. They are built to sell. If demand slow down they will have to lower price. Builders can't afford to leave new homes vacant for too long
    You might start to see al lot of POA on MyHome instead of showing the actual asking price on the ad to make it difficult for people to compare


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 540 ✭✭✭OttoPilot


    Augeo wrote: »
    S&P500 down 20%, FTSE100 down 30% ish in last few weeks.
    Thousands of workers looking like being out of work and pubs closed.

    20% + drop in Irish house prices isn't unlikely as the prices were levelling off anyway.

    House prices will fall in line with stock market I reckon.

    S&P down 10% again today so far


  • Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    OttoPilot wrote: »
    S&P down 10% again today so far

    Indeed, % makes great headlines but context also important.

    Peak was 3400 ish in mid Feb .......... 20% drop brought it to 2700 ish.
    10% of 2700 is of course smaller then 10% of 3400 :)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 94 ✭✭randoplh134


    Augeo wrote: »
    S&P500 down 20%, FTSE100 down 30% ish in last few weeks.
    Thousands of workers looking like being out of work and pubs closed.

    20% + drop in Irish house prices isn't unlikely as the prices were levelling off anyway.

    House prices will fall in line with stock market I reckon.

    Bingo, expect at least a 20% drop in prices by the end of the year.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,853 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Bingo, expect at least a 20% drop in prices by the end of the year.

    MAYBE... and what if you lose mortgage approval or cant get it in a few months due to changed circumstances? Prices will drop, but so may peoples ability to buy. If you are currently being ripped off on rent, that is a big factor...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 540 ✭✭✭OttoPilot


    Augeo wrote: »
    Indeed, % makes great headlines but context also important.

    Peak was 3400 ish in mid Feb .......... 20% drop brought it to 2700 ish.
    10% of 2700 is of course smaller then 10% of 3400 :)

    Dont worry, it fell 12% which is the equivalent of 10% from peak ;)


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  • Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    OttoPilot wrote: »
    Dont worry, it fell 12% which is the equivalent of 10% from peak ;)

    It fell 12% today.
    Today COB it's 30% off Feb peak.... Daily falls aren't measured off peaks from weeks ago.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 540 ✭✭✭OttoPilot


    Augeo wrote: »
    It fell 12% today.
    Today COB it's 30% off Feb peak.... Daily falls aren't measured off peaks from weeks ago.

    I know but the point you made was that a 10% fall from a few days ago wasnt the same point impact as the 10% fall I mentioned a few hours ago. But then it fell to 12% so it turned out to be a similar point fall.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 684 ✭✭✭farmerval


    lalababa wrote: »
    Reply
    All your points are valid but I don't think they have much weight.
    1) why not?? nothing wrong with -meet EA for viewing....meet solicitor...meet bank manager...sign contract. Probably don't have to meet solicitor initially these days...actually can contract be posted emailed and signed at home or do you need solicitors witness?
    2)New builds would be set up to go and delaying them would just cost money, builders and most workers don't like sitting on their thumbs.
    3)open houses can open just not very open
    4)You want to sell house you put it on market....market hasn't fallen ....yet
    5)yes there is a bit of uncertainty...but so what
    6)hmmmm I don't know 'bout that
    7)hmmmm the same

    Specifically on point 6 above. There are social houses being built. Respond in the South East have 4 sites between just completed and in construction. The NTMA I think or the National Pensions board is funding a framework of social housing that is currently underway. The first round of six sites of 60-70 units each in the greater Dublin area are on site and the second tranche of six sites around the country of similar size are gone to site just now.
    These are all being funded on 25 or 30 year finance.


  • Registered Users Posts: 291 ✭✭guyfawkes5


    lalababa wrote: »
    1) why not?? nothing wrong with -meet EA for viewing....meet solicitor...meet bank manager...sign contract. Probably don't have to meet solicitor initially these days...actually can contract be posted emailed and signed at home or do you need solicitors witness?
    It's definitely more awkward but house viewings are still happening. Estate agents' approaches have been ranged in severity from refusing handshakes while showing you in to leaving the property's door open and parking their car across the road with the window open, shouting 'look around yourself, I'm out here for questions!'.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,501 ✭✭✭✭Slydice


    Sounds like something is holding something up on them

    Short update to Saturday’s Statement on the issues affecting the rental sector in relation to Covid-19
    Published on Monday, 16 Mar 2020
    https://www.housing.gov.ie/housing/private-rented-housing/short-update-saturdays-statement-issues-affecting-rental-sector
    (Update to statement of Saturday, March 14/2020)

    Minister Murphy has been conducting a series of engagements with relevant stakeholders including tenant and landlord associations. The matter has also been discussed with Minister Donohoe and been brought before members of the Covid 19 cabinet committee sub-group.

    “We know additional protections for renters during this period are necessary,” Minister Murphy said. “We are considering what additional supports and protections will be required for renters, beyond the income supports already agreed with the Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection. Work is continuing to bring these matters to a conclusion as soon as possible.”


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 18 TravelTiger


    I've re-read the last few pages and I'm still very surprised that the coming global depression can't even correct a ridiculously overpriced market.

    Some places in Dublin need to drop by 40% let alone 20%


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,295 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    OttoPilot wrote: »
    Many people said that about Irish banks in 2008. How many evictions did we see in the end? One? Landlords won't have a leg to stand on because as you have noted the system wont help them. It will grind to a halt.

    One repossession? You must be joking there have been thousands upon thousands of forced sales, repossessions, receivers appointed in the last 12 years. Repossessions have been grinding through the courts for years. If the courts are closed, landlords might be tempted to simply lock out the tenants won't be able to find anyone to help them. In any event it would be no bar to landlords issuing notices of termination even if they have to wait to get the tenant out. Many landlords have waited years to get tenants out and will seize the chance.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 94 ✭✭randoplh134


    I've re-read the last few pages and I'm still very surprised that the coming global depression can't even correct a ridiculously overpriced market.

    Some places in Dublin need to drop by 40% let alone 20%

    Give it time sir, you ain't seen nothing yet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 782 ✭✭✭Dolbhad


    Himself had been laid of short term and I’ve been on notice of reduced working hours with the potential of short term lay off until it’s all over. I didn’t want a recession to hit in case jobs were a possibility but had hoped house prices would level. Our AIP expires end of March.

    That will knock us out of looking at purchasing a house until this all blows over and hoping our jobs can go back to normal.

    It’s a hard call to decide whether you buy or not in this climate. I think it’s less an issue for a long term home esp if you can pay the mortgage comfortable. Otherwise you need to pay rent.

    It wouldn’t have put me of buying a house if we were still able to get a mortgage as the aim would have been a house for life.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    farmerval wrote: »
    Specifically on point 6 above. There are social houses being built. Respond in the South East have 4 sites between just completed and in construction. The NTMA I think or the National Pensions board is funding a framework of social housing that is currently underway. The first round of six sites of 60-70 units each in the greater Dublin area are on site and the second tranche of six sites around the country of similar size are gone to site just now.
    These are all being funded on 25 or 30 year finance.

    Do you think there will be money for future social housing (and by that I mean social housing that hasnt started not ones that have builders onsite) after COVID19?

    Conservatively there are going to be 200,000 to 300,000 more people unemployed over the next 2-3 months. Business which generate tax have closed. These 2 events will narrow the tax base. At the same time social welfare payments increase (300,000 by approx 200 a week). Also the HSE will probably need several billion to combat this while waiting lists etc grow.

    I do not know what the governments first priority will be after all this is managed (clearly housing is not a priority today; it wasnt for the last 5 years) - I highly suspect the limited resources wont be spent building houses.


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