coronavirus and the property effect

The_Brood · 09-05-2020 10:23pm

Nothing has dropped at the moment though high prices still as bad as ever, maybe it will be later in the summer that significant drops will be seen?

The_Brood · 09-05-2020 10:24pm

Nothing has dropped at the moment though high prices still as bad as ever, maybe it will be later in the summer that significant drops will be seen?

OttoPilot · 09-05-2020 10:33pm

The_Brood wrote: »

Nothing has dropped at the moment though high prices still as bad as ever, maybe it will be later in the summer that significant drops will be seen?

We entered recession in 2008 and house prices didnt reach their bottom until 2011 or 2012, patience.

Hubertj · 09-05-2020 10:58pm

OttoPilot wrote: »

We entered recession in 2008 and house prices didnt reach their bottom until 2011 or 2012, patience.

Will prices drop faster than last time given the type of shock to economy? Some clowns on other thread spouting 30% drop by end of summer.

Assetbacked · 09-05-2020 11:32pm

Hubertj wrote: »

Will prices drop faster than last time given the type of shock to economy? Some clowns on other thread spouting 30% drop by end of summer.

Everything is going to be frozen until at at least August but perhaps even until the end of the year. Then into next year we will have a tentative recovery with the economy slowly getting going again. Of course, people may be wary of buying and banks may be wary of lending. People who held off selling this year may test the water next year and there could be a decent amount of homes on the market. However, expectations may be too high for the beginning of the recovery and they might not sell. We already saw prices starting to correct towards the end of last year, it is probably towards Q3 next year when we start to see the beginning of the covid19 impact on house prices. I just can't see any meaningful data, not skewed by the covid19 freeze on the market, before then.

Of course, reports will be published in the coming weeks on Q2 2020 activity which will likely be accompanied with a narrative in certain quarters that the end of the housing market is coming, but it's so important not to buy into the hysteria we are likely to see. Equally, not to buy into the hopeless optimism of other commentators. We just need to realise that all that's happened is that the market is currently paused.

handlemaster · 10-05-2020 9:34am

Assetbacked wrote: »

Everything is going to be frozen until at at least August but perhaps even until the end of the year. Then into next year we will have a tentative recovery with the economy slowly getting going again. Of course, people may be wary of buying and banks may be wary of lending. People who held off selling this year may test the water next year and there could be a decent amount of homes on the market. However, expectations may be too high for the beginning of the recovery and they might not sell. We already saw prices starting to correct towards the end of last year, it is probably towards Q3 next year when we start to see the beginning of the covid19 impact on house prices. I just can't see any meaningful data, not skewed by the covid19 freeze on the market, before then.

Of course, reports will be published in the coming weeks on Q2 2020 activity which will likely be accompanied with a narrative in certain quarters that the end of the housing market is coming, but it's so important not to buy into the hysteria we are likely to see. Equally, not to buy into the hopeless optimism of other commentators. We just need to realise that all that's happened is that the market is currently paused.

Unemployment at 28 % hard to imagine a return to.prices where they were. How many people are now getting mortgage assistance from their banks ?

NIMAN · 10-05-2020 9:42am

It was tough timing on a lot of people who were putting their houses on the market in the lead up to CV19.

We were being told the economy was flying, they probably thought they'd get X for their houses.
I seen a couple of very nice properties up around Derry going on for 400k+.

Not a chance those folk are going to find people willing to spend that sort of money on a house when we have massive unemployment and a dodgy looking future for a while, with possibly a worst recession than '08 on its way.

Assetbacked · 10-05-2020 10:32am

https://amp-independent-ie.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/state-home-building-fund-to-expand-its-loans-for-developers-39192231.html

Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe said the new measures would "help large and small firms resume housebuilding activity quickly and bring new developments to completion as soon as possible

This is a no brainer to kick-start the economy. It will hopefully mitigate against any slowdown caused by covid19. For the first time in a long time supply may be allowed to increase more than demand.

Snow Garden · 10-05-2020 10:55am

There was evidence in the Irish construction sector before Covid19 that experienced tradesmen/workers weren't available in the same numbers as previous years. It seemed many Eastern European construction workers were returning home for 3 reasons: (1) Rental costs were too high here (2) Buying a permanent property in Ireland was too expensive (3) Salaries and Welfare (esp child benefit) were improving significantly in their home countries.
It will be interesting to see if that 'emigration' continues. I guess the hospitality sector could also see a major exodus. Many hotels, restaurants and cafes will not open again.

Roger the cabin boy · 10-05-2020 11:38am

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://amp-independent-ie.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/state-home-building-fund-to-expand-its-loans-for-developers-39192231.html

This is a no brainer to kick-start the economy. It will hopefully mitigate against any slowdown caused by covid19. For the first time in a long time supply may be allowed to increase more than demand.

It's a terrible, terrible idea

Assetbacked · 10-05-2020 11:46am

handlemaster wrote: »

Unemployment at 28 % hard to imagine a return to.prices where they were. How many people are now getting mortgage assistance from their banks ?

I suppose with the unemployment figures, they look like they are only temporary job losses given the sectors which have suffered (hospitality, retail) and also given that there is not a lot of individual borrowing in the economy which amplifies these kind of shocks. These aren't the sectors where people are buying expensive houses.

I think it was the ERSI economist, John Fitzgerald, who wrote in the IT the past few days that a "surprising" number of people will come out of this economic freeze in a better financial position. The demand could stay strong from FTBs, who are probably looking in the €500k max. price range.

However, in terms of lending, there may be a problem for those looking to buy more expensive houses. Even in the sectors where people still have their jobs and may be saving more money, bonuses and salary increases are likely to disappear. This could lower the amount of money which can be borrowed to fund the purchase of these more expensive properties. Translation, more expensive houses could drop substantially, particularly if they need renovation. I don't see any meaningful evidence of this for closer to two years or more to be honest.

Assetbacked · 10-05-2020 2:00pm

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

It's a terrible, terrible idea

Why? We are in an absolutely devastating housing crisis with the only solution to build a shed load of places for people to live. Oversupply is far better than undersupply but we are not even close to having sufficient supply so oversupply is a nonsense concern at this stage.

Hubertj · 10-05-2020 2:28pm

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

It's a terrible, terrible idea

I’d be interested to hear your opinion as to why it is a bad idea? I would have thought stimulus into the economy would be a good thing?

PommieBast · 10-05-2020 3:40pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

I think it was the ERSI economist, John Fitzgerald, who wrote in the IT the past few days that a "surprising" number of people will come out of this economic freeze in a better financial position.

Every time I hear that claim I want to reach for a blunt instrument. Even in technology a lot of people have had pay cuts.

Snow Garden · 10-05-2020 4:35pm

PommieBast wrote: »

Every time I hear that claim I want to reach for a blunt instrument. Even in technology a lot of people have had pay cuts.

I think he meant Irish Times, not IT.

The IT sector will be significantly impacted by a reduced IT spend amongst large enterprise customers.

10-05-2020 4:45pm

Hubertj wrote: »

I’d be interested to hear your opinion as to why it is a bad idea? I would have thought stimulus into the economy would be a good thing?

Initially it would, but oversupply in any commodity leads to falling prices and decrease in production. It was one of the reasons why the construction industry collapsed leading to mass unemployment/emigration in the last recession. If developers can’t sell properties or prices fall to much, they won’t build.

Roger the cabin boy · 10-05-2020 5:34pm

Hubertj wrote: »

I’d be interested to hear your opinion as to why it is a bad idea? I would have thought stimulus into the economy would be a good thing?

Stimulation is great, but do it from the bottom up, not the top down.

It's a bailout for the builders at the taxpayers ultimate expense.

Slydice · 10-05-2020 6:31pm

Another extension added on the all public participation periods in the planning system

Does someone have experience or example for the types of situations this is covering. Seems important enough with some many extensions. Is it mainly health and safety or planning application appeals or something?

Public participation period in the planning system extended for a further 14 days
Published on Saturday, 09 May 2020
https://www.housing.gov.ie/planning/covid-19-coronavirus/public-participation-period-planning-system-extended-further-14-days

lomb · 10-05-2020 7:45pm

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

Stimulation is great, but do it from the bottom up, not the top down.

It's a bailout for the builders at the taxpayers ultimate expense.

Government creams 50% off the top anyway-vat, employment taxes, stamp duties. Buying houses is a great stimulant for the general economy. When you buy a house, you need furniture and electrical appliances ,pay insurance, pay property tax, have and pay for a car as your a commuter and your more likely to have children as you feel secure etc.

PommieBast · 10-05-2020 8:19pm

Snow Garden wrote: »

I think he meant Irish Times, not IT.

The IT sector will be significantly impacted by a reduced IT spend amongst large enterprise customers.

I was aware of IT vs. IT

Figures are hard to come by but anecdotally it looks like the vast majority of people in Dublin have had a pay cut of some sort. Wouldn't surprise me if Google et al are the only ones who have not.

Assetbacked · 10-05-2020 8:28pm

PommieBast wrote: »

I was aware of IT vs. IT

Figures are hard to come by but anecdotally it looks like the vast majority of people in Dublin have had a pay cut of some sort. Wouldn't surprise me if Google et al are the only ones who have not.

I'd also be curious as to how many people are actually better off, notwithstanding having their salaries cut as they would not be spending as much on transport, childcare, discretionary expenditure (e.g. Drinks in town) etc. Additionally, a survey as to general wellbeing would also be interesting given people have more time at home and more free time in general.

AdamD · 10-05-2020 8:33pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

I'd also be curious as to how many people are actually better off, notwithstanding having their salaries cut as they would not be spending as much on transport, childcare, discretionary expenditure (e.g. Drinks in town) etc. Additionally, a survey as to general wellbeing would also be interesting given people have more time at home and more free time in general.

Not neccesarily beneficial to everyone's wellbeing, would vastly depend on the person.

standardg60 · 10-05-2020 8:51pm

Reading the ST business supplement today has convinced me that Capitalism is the ultimate house of cards. Glenveigh Properties announcing that 'virtual' viewings and inquiries are strong.. nothing to see here.
Deny deny deny while there's still time to get out.
Think we've been here before.
Meanwhile the state backed HBFI announces a doubling of funding to developers..so guess who's going to pay?

standardg60 · 10-05-2020 8:51pm

Reading the ST business supplement today has convinced me that Capitalism is the ultimate house of cards. Glenveigh Properties announcing that 'virtual' viewings and inquiries are strong.. nothing to see here.
Deny deny deny while there's still time to get out.
Think we've been here before.
Meanwhile the state backed HBFI announces a doubling of funding to developers..so guess who's going to pay?

standardg60 · 10-05-2020 9:05pm

The only thing that affects property prices is the Moon, and the tide has turned.

headtheball14 · 11-05-2020 12:19am

Cso did a survey on wellbeing published last week

https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/presspages/2020/silcmoduleonwell-being2018andsocialimpactofcovid-19april2020/

Zulu · 11-05-2020 9:15am

So I've been looking to get a medium size construction job done.
Was planning on doing it myself as I couldn't get someone to take it on. (Could only get a single quote, that was given over the phone for €20K)

I presume if there's a silver lining to this COVID situation this situation will probably change now. Or will it?

Will these guys just have a backlog of work? Is everything (building related) not just "on hold"?

Or will I get lucky and get a builder with a more reasonable price?

lomb · 11-05-2020 9:42am

You can always self build and hire tradesmen and skip the middleman aka builder if your prepared to do the hard work on planning and coordinating waste removal material delivery etc

Beanybabog · 11-05-2020 10:09am

Zulu wrote: »

So I've been looking to get a medium size construction job done.
Was planning on doing it myself as I couldn't get someone to take it on. (Could only get a single quote, that was given over the phone for €20K)

I presume if there's a silver lining to this COVID situation this situation will probably change now. Or will it?

Will these guys just have a backlog of work? Is everything (building related) not just "on hold"?

Or will I get lucky and get a builder with a more reasonable price?

I’d say you will. We have been discussing extending or moving house, now I think I’ll do neither. I’d be afraid of having someone come in and knock the back walls off the house and suddenly find ourselves in lockdown again unable to complete it with a baby on the way. I know someone this happened to, they’re in the middle of the extension and living with family since the lockdown. I’d be afraid to do anything now bar a small job that could be done in a week or two. I’d say people will be unable or unwilling to finance anything is too.

Zulu · 11-05-2020 11:59am

lomb wrote: »

You can always self build and hire tradesmen and skip the middleman aka builder if your prepared to do the hard work on planning and coordinating waste removal material delivery etc

Well, I've all that done.
Just need a block layer, plasterer, and someone to fit a 5m glass door. One good guy could probably do the lot - the thing is trying to find them!

Snow Garden · 16-05-2020 10:47am

Zulu wrote: »

Well, I've all that done.
Just need a block layer, plasterer, and someone to fit a 5m glass door. One good guy could probably do the lot - the thing is trying to find them!

Give it a few months and there will be plenty of tradesman available and labour costs will have reduced significantly. I would advise you to start your self-build in early 2021.

Slydice · 24-05-2020 8:35pm

They've put up another set of COVID-19 Queries from TDs from about 2 weeks ago:
https://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/publications/files/covid-19-related_responses_11_may.pdf

Allotments are reopened in Phase 1 from my reading of one of the questions. Not sure why but I think I'd been assuming they might have been opened before from their ability to produce food.

Slydice · 25-05-2020 11:12pm

I think this bit might be finished from today:

Slydice wrote: »

Another extension added on the all public participation periods in the planning system

Does someone have experience or example for the types of situations this is covering. Seems important enough with some many extensions. Is it mainly health and safety or planning application appeals or something?

Public participation period in the planning system extended for a further 14 days
Published on Saturday, 09 May 2020
https://www.housing.gov.ie/planning/covid-19-coronavirus/public-participation-period-planning-system-extended-further-14-days

They've put this up:
Minister Murphy: Public participation period in Planning returns to normal
Published on Monday, 25 May 2020
https://www.housing.gov.ie/planning/covid-19-coronavirus/minister-murphy-public-participation-period-planning-returns-normal

From today, Monday 25 May 2020, the normal periods for public participation processes for planning applications under the Planning and Development Acts will apply to new applications.

coronavirus and the property effect

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