Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

Scrabbel · 23-06-2019 12:08pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No mention of thunder whatsoever all mention of thunderstorms has been removed.

“Showery rain will continue to extend northwards this evening and early tonight with a few thundery downpours following as the rain clears. Areas of mist and fog will develop as easterly breezes fall mostly light. A humid night with lowest temperatures of 10 to 14 degrees.”

Looks just like normal Irish weather more cloud and light rain.

Satellite pic shows absolutely nothing to be excited about. Not as much as a spark on sat24.

It says thundery downpours in the section you quote? Mind you, just “a few”, but there all the same,

Comhrá · 23-06-2019 12:21pm

Scrabbel wrote: »

It says thundery downpours in the section you quote? Mind you, just “a few”, but there all the same,

From my experience of Irish weather-watching, 'thundery downpours' just means bigger raindrops...I'm not getting over-excited for today or this evening.

JCX BXC · 23-06-2019 12:21pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No mention of thunder whatsoever all mention of thunderstorms has been removed.

“Showery rain will continue to extend northwards this evening and early tonight with a few thundery downpours following as the rain clears. Areas of mist and fog will develop as easterly breezes fall mostly light. A humid night with lowest temperatures of 10 to 14 degrees.”

Looks just like normal Irish weather more cloud and light rain.

Satellite pic shows absolutely nothing to be excited about. Not as much as a spark on sat24.

See highlighted section.

squarecircles · 23-06-2019 12:32pm

dear lord,people are so misinformed,there was never any forecast for the violent thunderstorms with 'orange skies' (cringe) forecast for sunday, more thundery rain,actual thunderstorms are possible as the week progresses as the humidity instability and warmth increases in the atmosphere.

Mortelaro · 23-06-2019 12:49pm

Tonights thunder risk (which isnt a low risk) is brought about by the advection of warm and humid air chasing the rain band

The problem with social media now (inc boards) versus the 1980s is that theres too much waiting and too much commentary
There should be a lot of thunder around in the next week
It could be anywhere
Convergence storms in the inland southeast
Pulse storms anywhere/heavy showers
French/Celtic sea/Welsh imports
Pure heat and humidity localised storms in the west later in the week that could be intense

None of this has happened yet
It's just that its likely
posts going on about it's not going to happen etc are stupid in my opinion
Just Enjoy the ride instead, you could have lots of excitement ahead

fryup · 23-06-2019 12:55pm

what do you reckon blanket or fork lightning tonight?

MidMan25 · 23-06-2019 12:57pm

Ull always get the usual suspects going against the grain to try and wind up others.

23-06-2019 1:06pm

squarecircles wrote: »

dear lord,people are so misinformed,there was never any forecast for the violent thunderstorms with 'orange skies' (cringe) forecast for sunday, more thundery rain,actual thunderstorms are possible as the week progresses as the humidity instability and warmth increases in the atmosphere.

I never mentioned violent thunderstorms but there was reference to thunderstorms in yesterday’s forecast and again last night after the news.

Why do you cringe when you read orange skies ? This is exactly what I would have observed back when we used to have actual thunderstorms not few flashes once every 5-10 mins and a few rumbles.

pad199207 · 23-06-2019 1:06pm

Certainly not looking as decent as it was a couple of days ago. Annoyingly it looks like the UK is going to hog it all.

For tonight though I certainly wouldn’t rule out anything especially for some sparks up through the Irish Sea with the increase of the Theta W airmass.
So those on the SE and E Coasts may be able to see some flashes

Keeping an eye on maybe something more organized coming out of SW Eng/ S Wales later in the night and making its way across the Irish Sea.

squarecircles · 23-06-2019 1:15pm

scatterd thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow,some very heavy -Michelle Dillion farming forecast

28 degrees in the midwest end of the week.

The pessimism on here is unreal.Its as if people want the most violent thunderstorm directly over their house with the highest max otherwise the whole thing is just irrelevant.A bit of balance and rationality.The week will be warm/very warm/hot,the nights muggy and humid for a large majority of the country,some people will experience thunderstorms,some wont.Try and savour it.

All models apart from GFS now agree it will be warming up significantly as next week progresses.

fryup · 23-06-2019 1:22pm

squarecircles wrote: »

The pessimism on here is unreal.Its as if people want the most violent thunderstorm directly over their house with the highest max otherwise the whole thing is just irrelevant.A bit of balance and rationality.

well fek it! there's nothing else to look forward to is there?

Meteorite58 · 23-06-2019 1:56pm

ECM has backed off thunderstorm activity tonight but ICON Hi Res has storms in the SW/ S from around 19.00 moving Northwards at the back edge of the front with a clearance behind . I think if we do have storms they will be elevated . Handy model has picked up stuff in the past where others have not. WRF-NMM also showing potential. Certainly tomorrow looks having way more , potentially lively. Will see

Meteorite58 · 23-06-2019 2:09pm

Met office have warnings in place for heavy rain and thunderstorms for Northern Ireland on Monday

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1142744328323895296

MidMan25 · 23-06-2019 2:12pm

Ominous skies over Brandon Bay, Co. Kerry

Iancar29 · 23-06-2019 2:27pm

Nice and simple watch area IMO for tonight. All coastal counties of Leinster. No point trying to pin down a more localised area with the such a variation of NWM ouput. Good luck to anyone heading out for it.

Jpmarn · 23-06-2019 5:51pm

It is looking rather a disappointing evening this evening for thunder fans. No lightening in our part of the world according to lightningmaps.org. Loads in Eastern Europe and into Russia.

23-06-2019 6:58pm

Met eireann have thunderstorm forecast back for Tomorrow afternoon, humid and up to 22 deg.

Little snowy old me · 23-06-2019 8:14pm

Very disappointing that the spell of heavy rain this evening produced no lightning.

Gonzo · 23-06-2019 8:19pm

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Very disappointing that the spell of heavy rain this evening produced no lightning.

I didn't think we'd get much if anything, warm air hasn't arrived yet, currently quite cool under that rain and cloud, warmth doesn't arrive till tomorrow.

prinzeugen · 23-06-2019 10:17pm

For anyone needing some thunder.. Great light show from the US last night. The stream stopped at 12.20am as the cam took a direct hit! You can rewind it a few hours.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIcaNyDuRT0&feature=youtu.be

igCorcaigh · 23-06-2019 10:30pm

Sparks near wales

JCX BXC · 23-06-2019 10:36pm

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Sparks near wales

Could be floating up along the east coast later!

ZX7R · 23-06-2019 10:43pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Could be floating up along the east coast later!

Hopefully to float a little inland up the east
Up all night on duty hoping to see something

s8n · 23-06-2019 10:47pm

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Sparks near wales

Sparks ??

ZX7R · 23-06-2019 10:52pm

s8n wrote: »

Sparks ??

Detected lightning strikes on the radar.

pad199207 · 23-06-2019 11:04pm

13mm in Kildare with fairly heavy rain still falling.
Think orographic lift playing it’s part over the mtns

ZX7R · 23-06-2019 11:12pm

pad199207 wrote: »

13mm in Kildare with fairly heavy rain still falling.
Think orographic lift playing it’s part over the mtns

Met earann may have pulled the rain warning too early maybe.

Storm 10 · 24-06-2019 8:02am

Today is the only chance of Thunder according to ME this morning, from tomorrow it's fine dry weather back to rain at the weekend but no mention of Thunder for this week only today

s8n · 24-06-2019 8:03am

ZX7R wrote: »

Detected lightning strikes on the radar.

Why not call it lightning then ??

JCX BXC · 24-06-2019 8:21am

s8n wrote: »

Why not call it lightning then ??

It's widely known terminology here, and not hard to figure out either. If we only had one way of saying everything we'd be awful boring, now why do you wish to change the terminology we use on the weather forum?

JCX BXC · 24-06-2019 8:22am

Storm 10 wrote: »

Today is the only chance of Thunder according to ME this morning, from tomorrow it's fine dry weather back to rain at the weekend but no mention of Thunder for this week only today

I noticed that but it seems like a very basic forecast, so perhaps it's omitted instead of non-existant

jimmynokia · 24-06-2019 8:38am

s8n wrote:

Why not call it lightning then ??

Pedantic alert

Comhrá · 24-06-2019 9:17am

I'm still holding out some hope for thunderstorms between today and next Friday.

I've often noticed over the years that some of the best thunderstorms were somewhat unexpected and as they're so hard to forecast with much certainly, we may have a few surprises over the next few days.

Meteorite58 · 24-06-2019 9:53am

Complete bust yesterday, lets see what today brings.

estofex off to a good start.

Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 24 Jun 2019 06:00 to Tue 25 Jun 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 24 Jun 2019 03:02
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 and 2 were issued across western France and southern UK mainly for severe wind gust, large hail and tornado chances, and in Ireland for spout-type tornadoes.

Meteorite58 · 24-06-2019 10:08am

Plenty of CAPE available from the most current guidance. ECM showing best potential in the SE and E and later midlands perhaps.

24-06-2019 11:02am

Met eireann radar showing showers starting to form in the south/ south east.

It’s certainly a lot more humid today.

ninebeanrows · 24-06-2019 11:03am

Decent shower going up over City Centre, will it spark?

pad199207 · 24-06-2019 11:11am

Dad in Grand Canal Street he’s never seen anything like the rain

Danno · 24-06-2019 11:17am

Shower gone up over the Comer Pleatau. Temps just to the northwest of it here in South Laois nudging 20c. Dewpoints are a juicy 16.1c. The skies in Laois are fairly congested.

Mortelaro · 24-06-2019 11:19am

Heres the towers just literally growing like mad inland as seen from Arklow

Danno · 24-06-2019 11:25am

Recent strike in SE County Down.

ciaran76 · 24-06-2019 11:25am

Rain in Swords pretty heavy now. Thunder also.

Gonzo · 24-06-2019 11:26am

very gloomy morning here at Dunshaughlin, solid slate grey skies and damp, hopefully it will brighten up later. Feeling mild with a temperature of 16C.

Kermit.de.frog · 24-06-2019 11:28am

Distant thunder at Dublin Airport just now.

pad199207 · 24-06-2019 11:28am

Strikes in N Dublin

Mortelaro · 24-06-2019 11:28am

New tower building north of Arklow
Pic may be sideways sorry
But soon in and you see trademark sharp edges and dark contours that are a sign of thunder to come

Kermit.de.frog · 24-06-2019 11:31am

Didn't take long for that small cell to go active as it passed over Dublin City. Decent marker for the rest of the day.

It's a question of how much the onshore wind element may move development further inland away from the coast.

Decent start though.

JCX BXC · 24-06-2019 11:33am

Didn't expect strikes this early!

koutoubia · 24-06-2019 12:01pm

just witnessed a strike straight ahead of me somewhere in the direction of Naul, Co Dublin. Be surprised if it didnt make land.

ongarboy · 24-06-2019 12:23pm

The current rainfall radar map on met.ie shows little pockets of red (ie 12-20 mm per hour of rain) in North County Dublin so there is probably some very heavy localized downpours there right now.

Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

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