January

23-01-2004 5:45pm #1

Ok , now that every forecaster from London to Dublin is talking about it and on met Éireanns website there is now a warning about it:

Wintry weather expected!
Becoming bitterly cold through the weekend with some significant snowfall likely in places Sunday night, Monday and Tuesday.

It's worth a mention on this board.
The great North Wind straight from the pole is about to blow, with a good chance of a lot of snow showers up north.
A slight veering of that wind to the NorthEast and thats a risk of lots of the white stuff onto the East coast too.

celticfc · 23-01-2004 5:48pm

Get your toboggans at the ready

DapperGent · 23-01-2004 5:59pm

A bit more detail than the fairly terse statement on the website:

Cold weather is expected to set in across Ireland over the next 24 hours and last for several days.

On Saturday and Sunday there will be scattered showers in West Munster, Connacht and West Ulster, elsewhere it will be largely dry. The showers will be mostly of rain or hail, but could give a covering of snow on mountains. Snow cover is very unlikely at lower levels.
Nights will be frosty at times, with the risk of icy roads.

Sunday night, Monday and Tuesday will be even colder still, with a continuing risk of frost and ice, and also with falls of snow down to sea level in at least some parts of the country – these could occur anywhere, but at the moment the areas at greatest risk are : North Connacht, Ulster and East Leinster.

Have fun now! Look after yourselves and each other.:)

Mothman · 23-01-2004 6:15pm

There's such a big buldup, something major had better happen.

sunbeam · 23-01-2004 8:07pm

Originally posted by DapperGent
Have fun now! Look after yourselves and each other.:)

And if you have elderly neighbours don't forget to make sure that they are ok.

I'm charging vast quanties of batteries for my camera as I write. A few sunsets/rises over the snowcapped hills would look nice on my wall.

Walter Ego · 23-01-2004 8:28pm

Garda Report:
Snow with a street value of €2 billion found in Dublin next week.:p

Mossy Monk · 23-01-2004 8:55pm

i look forward to a week of no white stuff

. we get snow here maybe once every 4 years

gurramok · 23-01-2004 10:03pm

4 years since some sticky snow in dublin, historic moment!!
Looking forward to having excuses for not getting to work even though i live 1.5 miles away

Gonzo · 24-01-2004 5:26am

more than likely it'll be the usuall case of Ireland staying frosty, sunny and no snow wotsoever with England getting snowed under:(

24-01-2004 9:44am

Originally posted by Gonzo
more than likely it'll be the usuall case of Ireland staying frosty, sunny and no snow wotsoever with England getting snowed under:(

Actually snow is very likely in the Dublin area.
It all depends on wind direction.
There is going to be a lot of showers up north, for sure, and I would be surprised if Dublin escaped some of them.
With temperatures predicted to get to only freezing by day, that snow will settle, even in Dublin.
A slight change of wind direction to the north east and that could mean very nasty conditions and more snow accumilation along the East coast.

This is because while the very cold northerly unstable airstream will cause heavy snow showers to develop in the Irish sea, you would need an on shore wind to blow them in to eastern counties.
If the wind stays purely north, then what showers they are will be travelling in a straight north south direction.
The heaviest ones out to sea will stay there, but some will un doubtedly make their way further south overland from the north.

Thats just my opinion/guess though.

Mothman · 24-01-2004 12:02pm

No doubt that it'll be cold, but I'm starting to think that the highish pressure to the west may keep precipitation levels down. Certainly over the northern half of country, anything that falls early in the week will be snow and is likely to accumulate. Even in the rest of country the slighest fall will make non national routes treacherous, but the gritters will probably leave the main routes in reasonable order. All this is completely subjective, and as Man points out, an easterly element to wind will bring any showers in Irish Sea onshore with interesting results.

Looks like there'll be a fair share of sunshine to help keep spirits up!!

seamus · 24-01-2004 12:47pm

Wintry weather expected!
Becoming bitterly cold through the weekend with some significant snowfall likely in places Sunday night, Monday and Tuesday.

Arse. I have a driving test on Monday.....fingers crossed it doesn't snow

mike65 · 24-01-2004 12:49pm

I predict a big damp squib. Or a dry one anyway. Lots on the mountains but nothing to worry drivers except for the ice of course!

Mike.

Guy:Incognito · 24-01-2004 1:21pm

yay sssssssssssssssssnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

phaxx · 24-01-2004 1:29pm

/me looks out the window

Looks warm and sunny.

What gives?

Heathen · 24-01-2004 1:30pm

sweet!! snow!

im in work sat, sun, mon, tue nights!! that means snow in an empty private car park... oh boy im gonna have some craic in the car

later
Macker

24-01-2004 5:57pm

Originally posted by seamus
Arse. I have a driving test on Monday.....fingers crossed it doesn't snow

probably safe enough on monday, the REAL fun may begin into monday evening and on Tuesday

originally posted by mike65

I predict a big damp squib. Or a dry one anyway. Lots on the mountains but nothing to worry drivers except for the ice of course!

Ah you'll probably escape the worst in the heart of the sunny south east alright

as met éireann say " at the moment the areas at greatest risk are : North Connacht, Ulster and East Leinster. "

DMT · 25-01-2004 7:15pm

I predict one of those lame 40 minute snow showers followed by sleet and rain. It'll make everywhere look white for about an hour or so, but that's it....

Gonzo · 26-01-2004 11:56am

so far they've gotten the weather completely wrong as usuall, here in meath its been raining solidly all morning and the suns after coming out and it aint nearly as cold as it was at the weekend with the hard frost of last nite long gone. well see wot happens over next 24 hours.

26-01-2004 12:14pm

Relax now

I did say wait untill monday evening and tuesday if you read back in the thread.
The artic air hasnt actually arrived yet , it is making it's way down through Scotland at the moment.

And just to update on what i expect to happen.
It looks like the wind is going to stay in the north, so what snow there is, will mainly affect the north and northwest of the country.
What the rest of us get will be their leftovers.

Weather is very volatile and subject to change very quickly though.
All you can say with certainty at the moment is that from this evening the airmass over the country will be artic in origin and very cold.
So precipitation will be in the form of hail sleet or snow.

26-01-2004 12:21pm

If you look at the image, below, which is copyright of the BBC and the U.K met office.

The cold air is behind the cold front currently over the north of Scotland and shaded in white to indicate snow.
Follow the lines south and you can see where it is headed.

Of course the weather on it will be very little by the time it gets down over Ireland, but the significant thing is that, the cold artic air means any showers during its passing and behind it will be increasingly of snow.

Lafortezza · 26-01-2004 12:26pm

It *almost* snowed as I was walking past merrion sq this morning. It was kind of a hail/sleet hybrid, still a bit crunchy underfoot though. Saw one poor sod in a light grey suit snot himself and get big cold wet patches down his side. The language out of him would have made a sailor blush

I don't mind the cold, but if it gets snowy and wet and windy then I'll be grumpy.

super_furry · 27-01-2004 10:47am

Just cold at the moment, and I don't think we'll get anything worth shouting about. A shame really because I love snow, it always brings out the kid in me.

Gonzo · 27-01-2004 11:33am

know this wud happen really, its Ireland. The forecasters have never goten it so wrong, For past week all we heard on Tv was 'worst cold spell for 3-5 years', 'heavy snow effecting the north and east on monday, tuesday, wednesday', The BBC even had colour profile charts for snow warnings till last sunday, these sorta charts are usually only issued for blizzards/hurricanes etc. Its now Tuesday mid-morning and all we've goten is a nights frost and rain/sleet showers and from the sound of the new revised TV3 forecast thats as good as it gets. TV3 this morning gave mainly a dry sunny day with a few showers effecting northern coasts and isolated rain/sleet showers in the east, tomorrow milder and sunny, temperatures 4deg - 7deg.

27-01-2004 1:09pm

Might get some snow tonight, but probably not on coasts and probably only on the higher ground.

The cold air is coming down all the time, and considering its origin, being the greenland shelf, it should bring snow in january.
The ideal conditions for snow in Ireland have always been when the wind direction is sourced from the east and the air originates in Russia or siberia.
that air in winter is much colder than what we have now from greenland and travels over les warmer sea to get to us.
That hasnt happeneed in a while and is usually brought about by a large area of high pressure over scandinavia.

But then, this part of the world was a degree warmer overall last year and a degree is a lot when deciding snow or rain.

Temperatures in my humble opinion have to get to two degree's and lower for continious dry snow.
Any higher than that and its wet snow or the mix in the athmosphere from sea breezes causes the snow to be rain/sleet.

But snow lovers shouldnt give up the ghost yet, it's currently cloudy in Dublin for instance and only 1 degree at dublin airport.
And there is an active weather front spreading down from the north which may give some action this evening.

Whatever falls is not going to be too significant though.
Weather forecasters do have a tough call forecasting snow or rain when temperatures are borderline, as a degree does make a difference.

For example, take a drive from the coast into the dublin or wicklow mountains where there has been snow and look at the temperature clock on your car and you will notice it is a degree or two colder there and that is the difference.

DMC · 27-01-2004 5:41pm

I'm disappointed at this let-down. Cold yes, but to hear some of the news reports late last week, you'd have tought we'd be able to set up a ski run for a few months!!

27-01-2004 6:00pm

Nope unless you head for the Dublin mountains ski-ing possibilities in Dublin will be limited to certain nokia phone games at the moment

However as I posted in the other thread today is a good, two to three degree's colder than yesterday on the thermometer and theres a system still to move down from the north.
So snow is still a strong possibility, even at sea level in the next 36 hours in the Dublin area and down here.
but theres not going to be enough if it falls to cause too much disruption, methinks.

DMT · 27-01-2004 6:05pm

Originally posted by DMT
I predict one of those lame 40 minute snow showers followed by sleet and rain. It'll make everywhere look white for about an hour or so, but that's it....

I truely am a genius.... for my next prediction, I predict that it will take at least 30 to 50 years before Dublin is again hit by 1983 style week long blizzards - this is how long it will take for the gulf stream to creep sufficiently southwards to allow for these conditions to occur...

27-01-2004 6:09pm

lol DMT it was actually 1982 though.
and only three years ago Dublin airport was shut down for the day due to snow.

It's not that unusual

DMC · 27-01-2004 6:16pm

hmmm....

DMT · 27-01-2004 6:39pm

Originally posted by Man
lol DMT it was actually 1982 though.
and only three years ago Dublin airport was shut down for the day due to snow.

It's not that unusual

You dare disagree with the great genius...? ww) ww)
It doesn't take much snow to shut Dublin airport down.
The current weather fronts will bring nothing and there will be no blizzards in Dublin for 30 to 50 years..

I'm great....

Gonzo · 27-01-2004 8:03pm

that cloud system is now over us here in meath and its raining outside, not even sleet, just rain, absolutely gutting:(

27-01-2004 8:18pm

Originally posted by Gonzo
that cloud system is now over us here in meath and its raining outside, not even sleet, just rain, absolutely gutting:(

Don't worry pet

There'll be another front down to ya in the morning which will have more snow in it , even where you are, keep an eye out for it, t'will be a few flakes for ya

originally posted by DMT
I'm great....

As shur we know ya are

But remember,it doesnt take a whole lot of skill to state that there will be no snow, when thats what happens 99% of the time even in the winter.
The forecaster has a difficult job and that job is subject to many variables.
Calling snow in borderline conditions for it is not one of the easiest things they do.

DMT · 27-01-2004 11:02pm

I will be victorious.... (when it come to weather - I am always right...)

28-01-2004 4:18pm

Originally posted by DMT
I predict one of those lame 40 minute snow showers followed by sleet and rain. It'll make everywhere look white for about an hour or so, but that's it....

Originally posted by DMT
I will be victorious.... (when it come to weather - I am always right...)

and the 40 minute snow shower you predicted...

did that come ? was everywhere lookin white?

Gonzo · 28-01-2004 5:07pm

All of the UK (except southwest, central london) got blasted by snow last night 5 inchs deep in most parts, typical us Irish just get rain and mild temperatures as always. With exceptionally mild weather due by Friday/Saturday (11deg?) im wondering wot chances do we have left this winter season for seeing a proper cold snap from the east with plenty of snow and drifting. Can this sort of thing occur in February up to early March? Last year I remember solid blue skys and warm sunshine all the way from late february till early June last year:) June was a crap cold month then July to mid October was really warm and sunny again.

Mossy Monk · 28-01-2004 9:59pm

i remember when i was in school we had snow in March so the chances of snow are far from gone

sadly

DMT · 28-01-2004 11:51pm

Originally posted by Man
and the 40 minute snow shower you predicted...

did that come ? was everywhere lookin white?

Talk about backpeddling - you way you were talking you'd think we'd be able to build igloos...

Gonzo · 29-01-2004 12:07am

for the record im 30 years of age and when it snows it has always brought out the kid in me, i adore snow, thing is when i went to school we here in Meath got snowed in every Winter without fail till 1991, all the way thru national school thru to my leaving certifcate year we got at least a week off school becuase of snowstorms/blizzards, since 1992 i can only recall 1 snowspell of about 3 inchs deep and thats it. Bascially I havent seen a decent cold spell/snow storm in 12 years, I know global warming/north atlantic drift plays part of this but not this sudden or extreme surely? Every other country in Europe is gettin decent snow most winters, even last week Greece and the greek islands got snow and temperatures below our 'so-called cold snap', yet no matter wot happens here all we get is rain or sleet and if on the rare chance that it is cold enough for snow here we are suddenly presented with cloudless sunny skys and England gets bombared with snow blizzards. Infact this winter so far we havent even had one miserable 5 minute snow shower.

mobby · 29-01-2004 12:12am

i remember when i was in school we had snow in March so the chances of snow are far from gone

Its only a few years ago we had snow in late April

Tommy Vercetti · 31-01-2004 6:07am

Just for the record. the original post

Wintry weather expected!
Becoming bitterly cold through the weekend with some significant snowfall likely in places Sunday night, Monday and Tuesday.

was entirely accurate:)

Just because it didn't snow on your particular part of Ireland doesn't mean it didn't elsewhere.

31-01-2004 9:58am

Indeed, most of Scotland even down to lower levels is getting a blizzard today with 20 cms or more expected.

This may affect high ground in Antrim later today.

/meanwhile away from the north east of this island, it's positively mild.

DMT · 31-01-2004 5:23pm

Weather people are like politicians - all promises then back-peddling when they can't deliver the goods....

BEAT · 01-02-2004 8:02am

I hate feckin' snow. It's pretty to watch from the warmth of your bed but having to be out in out everyday to and from where ever you are going sucks. It's freezing, slippery, dangerous, messy. ick. I cant take it anymore! there is 3 feet of it outside and it just keeps coming!
snow snow go away, dont come back another day!

01-02-2004 12:47pm

Originally posted by DMT
Weather people are like politicians - all promises then back-peddling when they can't deliver the goods....

eh?

I'd put them at more than 80% accurate and I'd be ungenerous to them probably at that.
Take away the weather forecasts , the models and the satellite images and leave us without a clue.

Then see how you like it.

lucernarian · 01-02-2004 4:10pm

Hey,

I liv near the north-east coast at an altitude of 500 feet and dere wasnt a flake of snow but a small shower of hailstones.

As a a matter of fact on thursday night (i think?) wen there was supposed to be rain, it started snowing for 5 mins and then was dry for the rest of the night!! The wind was south-westerly. This proves that met eireann and the met office are a pack of incompetent fools.

jd · 01-02-2004 4:18pm

Originally posted by To_be_confirmed
Hey,

I liv near the north-east coast at an altitude of 500 feet and dere wasnt a flake of snow but a small shower of hailstones.

As a a matter of fact on thursday night (i think?) wen there was supposed to be rain, it started snowing for 5 mins and then was dry for the rest of the night!! The wind was south-westerly. This proves that met eireann and the met office are a pack of incompetent fools.

Really-
1) your logic is a bit faulty
2) I think most interpretations od the varous models (ie not just from the irish met office) would have concurred with their assesment.
So are all weathermen " incompetent fools"

?

01-02-2004 10:04pm

Originally posted by To_be_confirmed
Hey,

I liv near the north-east coast at an altitude of 500 feet and dere wasnt a flake of snow but a small shower of hailstones.

As a a matter of fact on thursday night (i think?) wen there was supposed to be rain, it started snowing for 5 mins and then was dry for the rest of the night!! The wind was south-westerly. This proves that met eireann and the met office are a pack of incompetent fools.

No it does not, my attitude to that is as per my reply to DMT.
When you get something right most of the time, then you certainly aren't incompetant.
Weather forecasting isn't magic, it's a difficult thing to do at the best of times.
The old maxim applies, the man who never made a mistake, never made anything .

Sweeping statements of condemnation without adequate evidence evidence will not be acceptable anymore,both posters consider yourselves informed.

lucernarian · 01-02-2004 10:08pm

I suppose that under the circumstances back then it would appear that there would be some sort of wintry showers expected but they were really wide off the mark. They mightn't be "incompetent fools" but they need to improve. I notice that it usually snows when i don't expect it.

On another point, a good friend of mine was driving home @ 7.30 am a couple of weeks ago, unaware that there was severe black ice on the roads in the area. Later that morning i heard that there were 12 car accidents in a 4 mile radius area. This person was driving at ordinary speeds, unaware of the danger. I was dissapointed that there was no warning on the weather forecast and while it may be localised, other small parts of the country were affected.

Mothman · 01-02-2004 10:39pm

Regarding the weather last week and in particular on wednesday, a cold front moved south over Britain and dumped 10cm+ of snow in an hour over a large area. This was just 100 miles to the east of Ireland, which in my opinion is a hairs breadth in meteorology. The front did come down over Ireland as well but with the temperature just that tiny bit higher, most of what fell on lowland was rain, but all the hills locally were snowcapped for a while. I can think of many times when the weather forecasters have been far less right than on this occassion.

Gonzo · 25-02-2004 6:02pm

we had a medium 5 minute snow shower earlier today in meath but since then its been solid blue skys and sunshine, prolly just end up with a hard frost tonight.

January

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